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Tesla.com - "Transitioning to Tesla Vision"

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Eh, no. This was supposed to be a new high-resolution radar for autonomous driving. Green The Only even found some hints on that in Tesla's firmware.


Nah, it seems that a lot of that was misreported or misinterpreted:


The FCC communication with Tesla is posted in the link. It refers to interior cabin use, not for external sensing:

"The subject device, which could be integrated in passenger vehicle interiors, incorporates
millimeter wave (mmWave) radar technology to detect movements within a vehicle and to
classify vehicle occupants."
 
I don't think this is proof nor the "obvious" interpretation. See my (admittedly speculative bit IMO reasonable) post above, and below is an alternative explanation based on that:

  • Tesla presently has long-established AP features and modes that, for better or worse, incorporated and somewhat relied on radar.
  • They have just now produced a large batch of cars without the radar module, cars that were undeliverable awaiting a mysterious update.
    • I'm postulating this radar deletion, this early on, was not the preferred plan and was forced upon them by supply issues.
    • Or maybe not absolutely forced but also opportunistically embraced & mandated by Elon, whichever.
  • Consequently they've had to rush the re-writing of AP code sans radar, superseding the prior plan to roll out Pure Vision for City Streets beta and, only later, retrofit it into existing AP features under less-rushed conditions.
  • So this would explain why they are restricting the operational envelope of older AP features. Under the circumstances, they're balancing the need to get the on-hold inventory of cars into a usable & deliverable state, against the concerns of deploying replacement AP software with less qualification testing than anyone would normally wish to see.
  • The reduced AP-feature envelope is intended to be a temporary compromise pending additional testing and possibly tweaking.
  • It is not obvious proof that the vision-based rewrite is ultimately inferior and will be a "degraded experience" long-term. It may or may not be, but at this point all we can say is that it's new, mandating extra cautions in this obviously😉 pressured deployment.
Please understand that I'm neither defending nor condemning this course of action because I don't really know the specifics. I am saying that no interpretation, including mine, is obvious or proven. We're all free to assume good vs. bad motives that may inform our customer opinions and predictions.
this is a really long way to say that "yes, radar less operation is currently degraded and so radar will kept being used when available".
Of course if they ever reach a level of performance without radar that the limitations could be lifted they might stop really using radar, but in reality they will never acieve total parity with radar for the obvious reason that the radar works in some conditions where camera solution does not and as such radar-less operation will always remain inferior in at least some conditions.
 
On my drive to San Francisco yesterday my Autopilot and cruise control were disabled for the entire 1hr drive because the sun was setting in that direction. Vision only is definitely the way forward.

1622046326301.png
 
Nah, it seems that a lot of that was misreported or misinterpreted:


The FCC communication with Tesla is posted in the link. It refers to interior cabin use, not for external sensing:

"The subject device, which could be integrated in passenger vehicle interiors, incorporates
millimeter wave (mmWave) radar technology to detect movements within a vehicle and to
classify vehicle occupants."
OK, looks like I fell for "fake news".
 
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On my drive to San Francisco yesterday my Autopilot and cruise control were disabled for the entire 1hr drive because the sun was setting in that direction.
It's clearly the sign of a company very focused on human machine interfaces and safety critical systems to warn you once every minute that the system is unavailable but might work next time you get in the car. ;)

My favorite is that if you swipe away a TPMS error (I get them when I put on race tires)- it stays hidden until another message pops up. Like "cruse control will not brake" if you use the throttle to accelerate, or even the pop up when you engage AP. Then the TPMS error unhides and you have to swipe it away again.
 
Karpathy on vision-only approach:
Karpathy also did not say that vision could not be augmented by other sensors to make it even better. He just said it was data rich and because it never drops attention, it can be better than a human. There is nothing here saying that vision only is the best solution, just that it is feasible. Nor is he saying the cameras and computers on a current Tesla are sufficient.

I think we can all agree we "live in a funny sliver of time where it's a contest." Yes, humans will eventually figure out how to make a computer drive a car like a human with only cameras.

As usual, the issue is that Tesla is charging money as if we have passed this time, referring to AP as "superhuman", and publishing videos, yet even Kaparthy is not giving us a timeline when this will occur. He agrees we haven't achieved provable superiority. Humans in whole are a tiny sliver of time in the earth's history. We may not have vision processing that is as good as a human for 30 years, and that's still a sliver of time, yet it's a silver where Tesla charged money on cars that will be worn out before this time period is over.

The only question today- has Tesla actually gotten to the point where vision is better than vision+radar, and are thus selling the superior product to their customers? The limited roll out of vision only to only customers without radar, only to the cheaper cars, and only to North America tells me that they have not, and that "vision only" is still a first principles meta idea that has yet to be proven, and even Tesla isn't willing to fully commit yet. Customers without radar are alpha testers for an unknown future, not the lucky ones with the best system Tesla knows how to make.
 
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As long as Tesla can sell every car they make, they owe it to the shareholders to increase profits. That includes degrading car features, service, warrantee, etc. If this decision results in them not being able to sell cars and thereby lowering profits, they'll need to change their plans, otherwise, they really would be failing their fiduciary responsibilities.
 
otherwise, they really would be failing their fiduciary responsibilities.
This is a common misunderstanding of public companies, and one I had for a while too. However, They do not have to focus on maximizing profit, as long as they make it clear that is not their goal:
To quote the U.S. Supreme Court opinion in the recent Hobby Lobby case: “Modern corporate law does not require for-profit corporations to pursue profit at the expense of everything else, and many do not.”

This is Tesla's business per the SEC filing. Note that their mission is to "Our mission to accelerate the world’s transition to sustainable energy" not maximize profit. They even call out safety of their users as a priority as well, so removal of safety technologies is not fulfilling their stated goal:
We design, develop, manufacture, sell and lease high-performance fully electric vehicles and energy generation and storage systems, and offer services related to our sustainable energy products. We generally sell our products directly to customers, including through our website and retail locations. We also continue to grow our customer-facing infrastructure through a global network of vehicle service centers, Mobile Service technicians, body shops, Supercharger stations and Destination Chargers to accelerate the widespread adoption of our products. We emphasize performance, attractive styling and the safety of our users and workforce in the design and manufacture of our products and are continuing to develop full self-driving technology for improved safety. We also strive to lower the cost of ownership for our customers through continuous efforts to reduce manufacturing costs and by offering financial services tailored to our products. Our mission to accelerate the world’s transition to sustainable energy, engineering expertise, vertically integrated business model and focus on user experience differentiate us from other companies.
Even if max profits are the goal, the timeframe here matters. Removing features that maximizes current quarter profits but eats at brand trust or customer satisfaction are not always long term success stories.
 
I didn’t mention smart summon, and in fact I did say I was not getting FSD. It’s certainly disappointing to some, but that isn’t weighing in my decision.

I can get into my wife’s 18-month-old mid-level trim Rogue and turn on its autosteer equivalent at 76+mph with no problem (I think the fastest I’ve set it to was 80mph to keep pace with traffic).

you didn’t say your wife’s car. You said nearly every competitor. There’s a difference. Also, you said Multiple features. So now it’s only one feature, that isn’t missing, only limited to driving fast (just not dangerously fast)

so, let’s not overstate things brodensky. 👍
 
This is a common misunderstanding of public companies, and one I had for a while too. However, They do not have to focus on maximizing profit, as long as they make it clear that is not their goal:


This is Tesla's business per the SEC filing. Note that their mission is to "Our mission to accelerate the world’s transition to sustainable energy" not maximize profit. They even call out safety of their users as a priority as well, so removal of safety technologies is not fulfilling their stated goal:

Even if max profits are the goal, the timeframe here matters. Removing features that maximizes current quarter profits but eats at brand trust or customer satisfaction are not always long term success stories.

But would you disagree that most of Tesla's recent decisions such as getting rid of PR department, pulling all engineering effort from existing autopilot services (NoA, smart summon, autopark) to focus on the shiny new unsolved toy that brings in $10k of free money, degrading service center experience to the point that they no longer provide loaners and act like a Kia stealership, removing options, colors, and radar, have been done for any reason other than maximizing profits?
 
you didn’t say your wife’s car. You said nearly every competitor. There’s a difference. Also, you said Multiple features. So now it’s only one feature, that isn’t missing, only limited to driving fast (just not dangerously fast)

so, let’s not overstate things brodensky. 👍
You’re right, I said nearly every competitor, then later said my wife’s car (which is also a competitor). My apologies for using big words.

I was comparing the Mach-E, ID.4, Santa Fe, Sorento, Rogue, and Model Y when I settled on ordering the Y. As of today, only one of those cars has a cruise control/lane-keep restriction of 75mph. Only one of those cars ships without lane departure avoidance.

If it gets fixed in a reasonable timeframe, then fine, it’s back to normal. If the new system doesn’t reach feature parity for weeks or months, however, then it’s absolutely not an overstatement to say “the Model Y is missing features that its competitors have.”
 
You’re right, I said nearly every competitor, then later said my wife’s car (which is also a competitor). My apologies for using big words.

Yea. So post more examples of how every competitor has autosteer and other multiple features. Show us something Ford, GMC, Kia, Toyota, ect that is in the same price point as the Y.

They may be big words for you but many competitors means more than one, sweetie.
 
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