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Tesla.com - "Transitioning to Tesla Vision"

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I'm not sure I understand your question.

Tesla Vision is software. The new cars don't have any new HW- in fact they have less.

The only reason older cars aren't running vision only right now is vision only is currently inferior (thus more limitations on use compared to radar cars).

At such time it reaches parity or better (if it does) then everyone will get it.

If Tesla finds they can't do that and they really did need radar after all I'd EXPECT them to retrofit it into the cars they made without it once supply is available.
That doesn't address the main question of @lehmanbt which is given the order date of 4/26, will he get a vision-only car. The answer to that is no (unless he happened to get an inventory car). The production date is what matters, not the order date.
 
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Since 18.3 is running on both types of cars, and nothing in the firmware shows HW config for new sensors of any kind, we can be sure they are still using the same ones as non-radar cars.
I went back and reread your post above in light of what I learned from GearChurncher just now and now I understand your point. Originally I thought you were saying merely that the cars with and without radar were running the same FW. I did not realize that someone with elevated access privileges was actually able to read the HW descriptions in this FW. If that is the case I agree with you it is fact.
 
What new hardware would you be theorizing? Someone can easily go look at a new car to see if a sensor you are proposing is there. So far, nobody has noticed any, so this is highly unlikely to be an optical sensor, and we know the bumper area has no new sensors under it as people have removed this to look at the missing radar and verify the mount points and wire harness are still there.
Note, this is not quite correct. People have popped open the frunk button to check the harness connectors, however people have not taken off the bumper cover (which is much more involved) to verify if there were any changes to the sensors.
 
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Note, this is not quite correct. People have popped open the frunk button to check the harness connectors, however people have not taken off the bumper cover (which is much more involved) to verify if there were any changes to the sensors.
This is true, but from what we are hearing above it sounds like some people with elevated access to the SW/FW have actually been able to look at lists of the HW component definitions and they see nothing to indicate use of new sensors. If they added a new physical sensor on the non-radar cars the HW description for it would have to be present in the SW/FW release. If someone is able to read these files they can see everything that is installed or even capable of being installed for a given car.
 
This is true, but from what we are hearing above it sounds like some people with elevated access to the SW/FW have actually been able to look at lists of the HW component definitions and they see nothing to indicate use of new sensors. If they added a new physical sensor on the non-radar cars the HW description for it would have to be present in the SW/FW release. If someone is able to read these files they can see everything that is installed or even capable of being installed for a given car.
Sure that may all be true, but if someone actually popped open the bumper cover (and similarly the front unit, the b-pillar cameras, fender cameras, rear camera, the ultrasonic sensors, etc), that's a whole other level of evidence (although not necessary for this discussion). This had been done in the past where people actually took out the radar unit and took pictures during the switch to Continental.
 
Given latest developments that's pretty much not happening. They doubled down too much on the removal of radar and adding it back would be an even bigger "loss of face" than adding lidar.
The only tech I've seen that still matches a "cameras only" approach are TOF (time of flight) cameras, which are like a hybrid between a camera and a lidar sensor.

And to clarify, my comment is not meant to suggest that there is a change of hardware (plenty of evidence that suggest there is no change), just that the parts catalog may not necessarily be the best source of information even if that change did happen.
 
That doesn't address the main question of @lehmanbt which is given the order date of 4/26, will he get a vision-only car. The answer to that is no (unless he happened to get an inventory car). The production date is what matters, not the order date.
@lehmanbt, I typed that on my phone and looking back, it is a bit confusing how I worded that. To clarify: what I mean above is you won't get a car with radar, given any car manufactured after 4/27 will not have radar. The manufacturing date is what matters, not the order date.

There's more addressed in the FAQ:
Transitioning to Tesla Vision

Also supposedly when you are assigned a VIN you will be asked to agree to accepting a car without radar.
 
So, I'm confused. Just picked up my brand new M3 LR AWD on 6/10. Sticker says "Date of Manufacture: 05/2021". So I would assume that the car is sans radar. However, the sticker also says "Eight cameras and twelve ultrasonic sensors." What are "ultrasonic sensors"? Is that radar or is that something else? If something else, what is it and what is it used for? If they are the same thing, I thought no M3s built after April 2021 had radar...? What's up?
 
So, I'm confused. Just picked up my brand new M3 LR AWD on 6/10. Sticker says "Date of Manufacture: 05/2021". So I would assume that the car is sans radar. However, the sticker also says "Eight cameras and twelve ultrasonic sensors." What are "ultrasonic sensors"? Is that radar or is that something else? If something else, what is it and what is it used for? If they are the same thing, I thought no M3s built after April 2021 had radar...? What's up?

Your car does not have radar. Ultrasonic sensors are not radar. They are completely different sensors. ultrasonic sensor emit sound. Radar emit electromagnetic waves. ultrasonic sensors are very short range, so they are used mostly for parking.
 
So, I'm confused. Just picked up my brand new M3 LR AWD on 6/10. Sticker says "Date of Manufacture: 05/2021". So I would assume that the car is sans radar. However, the sticker also says "Eight cameras and twelve ultrasonic sensors." What are "ultrasonic sensors"? Is that radar or is that something else? If something else, what is it and what is it used for? If they are the same thing, I thought no M3s built after April 2021 had radar...? What's up?
Ultrasonics are the small sensors for proximity warning when parking. You see them in the bumpers. Radar is placed behind the front bumper.
 
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Karpathy is presenting at CVPR. He gave some specific info on why Tesla dropped radar. Basically, radar and sensor fusion was not working right. Karpathy explains that Tesla could have spend time fixing radar and sensor fusion but decided their engineering resources would be better spend on just just doing camera vision instead.

I grabbed these screenshots.

First screenshot shows a case of a car in front braking hard. The graphs show the acceleration of the Tesla over time for radar and no radar.

Basically, radar would lose track of the car in front, causing very hard braking. Now with Tesla Vision, the braking is much more smooth.

HDcHtkd.png


Next screenshot is case of an overpass. Radar mistakes the overpass for a stationary object. Tesla Vision does not make that mistake so it very smooth now.

Fv5gEoA.png


Here is the live stream. Karpathy talk starts at 7:51:46:

 
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Karpathy is once again pounding the fact that, currently, only Tesla can source the data required for FSD.

Thank you diplomat for posting the video.

The new bits that I gleaned from Karpathy's talk:
1) Tesla is using transformer NNs for fusing surround video.
2) Tesla is now training with video, not only on images.
3) Tesla has built a new Nvidia-based supercomputer to train their NNs.
4) Tesla is still working on Dojo.
 
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