Tesla confirms Model 3 will have less than 60kWh battery option

[Swampgator]

I have not seen a more reasoned analysis than Randy Carlson's over at seeking alpha.
He expects a 44 and a 66 kwh option. Just because Tesla is currently saying "less than 60" does not equal 59....or 55 kwh for the base model. Randy's predictions are based upon an engineers analysis (his) of the current battery capacity and actual statements from Elon an JB regarding future pack density and cost.
Everyone here basing their calculations on CURRENT M2 and Mx details are missing a major fact: The tech is getting better and the new gigafactory is what will enable Tesla to deliver a much longer range using a lighter and more energy dense pack.

 

[brianman]

Just because Tesla is currently saying "less than 60" does not equal 59....

I think you missed the word "at least" in the portion where I refer to 59 -- meaning 59 is the max that's "less than 60" without being laughed at for "playing with the decimal place".

 

[timk225]

Whatever the battery sizes are, when the time comes for us to place our orders, I hope Tesla has a very clear chart showing mileage and 0-60 and top speed numbers for every power combination. Single motor or dual, small battery or large, regular or insane mode, ludicrous speed, etc.

 

[SageBrush]

Whatever the battery sizes are, when the time comes for us to place our orders, I hope Tesla has a very clear chart showing mileage and 0-60 and top speed numbers for every power combination. Single motor or dual, small battery or large, regular or insane mode, ludicrous speed, etc.

And tested in Pittsburgh, neighborhood by neighborhood.

 

[Az_Rael]

Now Elon said during the Q1 call that "the average battery pack will certainly be below 75 kWh"...

I don't know how much credence to put into that statement. He ends up talking about it in reference to the 215 mile range, implying he's maybe talking about the base model? Here is the transcript of the conversation

Benjamin J. Kallo - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc. (Broker)

Got it. And Model 3 battery. We are all analysts here, we stir down our straw dividing by 75 kilowatt hours. Is that the right thing to do with the Model 3 or should we have a lower number like 40 kilowatts or 45 kilowatts? And then you've got the guy with the Volt making that car saying that it's going to be ahead of you guys and then sell for cheaper than you. So how do I think about GM being able to make a car cheaper than you versus making a margin on a Tesla with a lower battery cost? Does that make sense?

Elon Reeve Musk - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer

Yeah. I mean, we aren't going to get into real specifics on battery pack size, but I think it's fair to say that the average battery pack size for the 3 will be less than 75 kilowatt hours. That's...

Benjamin J. Kallo - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc. (Broker)

I'm sorry, what was that?

Elon Reeve Musk - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer

The average energy content of a 3 pack is certainly going to be less than 75 kilowatt. It doesn't clearly need to be anywhere near 75 kilowatt to achieve the range of 215 miles. But we don't want to get into the nitty-gritty. It's probably unwise. Yeah.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/397...-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=single

 

[gregincal]

Yeah, with this statement: "The average energy content of a 3 pack is certainly going to be less than 75 kilowatt. It doesn't clearly need to be anywhere near 75 kilowatt to achieve the range of 215 miles."

I take it to mean by "average" battery pack he meant base battery pack. The base battery pack will certainly be far less that 75 kWh, but that doesn't mean they won't release a larger battery pack than that.

 

[SageBrush]

And Model 3 battery. We are all analysts here, we stir down our straw dividing by 75 kilowatt hours. Is that the right thing to do with the Model 3 or should we have a lower number like 40 kilowatts or 45 kilowatts? And then you've got the guy with the Volt making that car saying that it's going to be ahead of you guys and then sell for cheaper than you. So how do I think about GM being able to make a car cheaper than you versus making a margin on a Tesla with a lower battery cost? Does that make sense?

No

 

[JeffK]

Unrelated but the listeners on the Q1 earnings call were very inconsiderate and should have muted themselves...

 

[JRP3]

I have not seen a more reasoned analysis than Randy Carlson's over at seeking alpha.
He expects a 44 and a 66 kwh option.

And I've pointed out here, and in his articles on SA, why he's likely to be quite wrong. He overestimates the potential weight savings and their effects on range.

 

[geoffreak]

I created this for another thread, but I thought I'd post it here too. Here are some rough calculations of Wh/mile based on estimated 215 mile range and estimated range of possible upgraded batteries. This is ignoring non-bricking capacity and weight differences between batteries (these lower wh/mile estimates then raise them respectively, so I'm considering them canceled out). Color coding was based on poll options in the other thread.

Also, in regards to the average 75kWh stuff, Elon only mentioned that number and average because that's what the question was. His response was clearly more about the number being wrong than about it being a useful number. I don't even think 75kWh or above is going to be an available size on the Model 3.

 

[Red Sage]

The one thing that concerns me most about both Elon Musk and JB Straubel is that they seem to each have a very clear understanding of what they believe is 'enough' battery capacity, and thus, maximum range for mass market acceptance -- and that number is probably far lower than I would prefer. I think that JB in particular would love for every car to have exactly 'enough' and no more, even as an option. I believe that Elon agrees with him, because he just wants to offer as many vehicles as possible to the public so that a greater quantity of ICE vehicles are displaced by fully electric ones.

I'm reminded of the story that is attributed to Bill Gates saying something like, "640 kb is plenty! No one will ever need more than that." I honestly believe that Tesla Motors made a serious mistake in even considering a 40 kWh battery pack for the Model S. I point out that the highest capacity battery pack has always been the best seller for the Model S. A lower capacity version might manage as much as 25% to 30%, as was the case with 60 kWh and now 70 kWh versions.

But I am afraid that instead of offering 60 kWh and 90 kWh versions of Model ☰... Or even better, 70 kWh and 100 kWh capacities for it to start... Tesla Motors may instead choose to offer 55 kWh and 75 kWh versions -- declaring them to be 'enough'.

Because, let's face it... A difference of 15 kWh to 25 kWh for potential maximum capacity makes for a sizable amount reserved to build the next car on the line. It will be interesting to see what Range/Performance balance Elon and JB choose to launch Tesla Generation III.

 

[Cyclone]

There is also the possibility that Tesla will not release a Model ≡ with greater range than the Model S (at least largest non-P S), incentivizing those who want the maximum possible range to pay the higher price for the higher model.

Not saying this will/will not happen - just that it's a possibility.

 

[JeffK]

There's no way on earth that would happen as far as range goes. As far as capacity, that's limited by size/weight requirements for Model 3 vs model S.

You'd better believe the Model 3 will have the highest range/performance economically feasible for that price point targeted to the most consumers possible, not just the rich ones. This car is supposed to appeal to the masses and compete against ICE cars at a similar price point, not the Model S.

Tesla will not hold back on the Model 3 unless it affects cost, complexity, or ability to manufacture on time. There's too much riding on this to play games.

 

[jkk_]

You'd better believe the Model 3 will have the highest range/performance economically feasible for that price point targeted to the most consumers possible, not just the rich ones. This car is supposed to appeal to the masses and compete against ICE cars at a similar price point, not the Model S.

Tesla will not hold back on the Model 3 unless it affects cost, complexity, or ability to manufacture on time. There's too much riding on this to play games.

That's what I'm placing my hopes on, holding back on Model 3 just to protect Model S doesn't really promote their end goal of sustainable transportation.

 

[spaceballs]

~*sigh*~

The 2014 Toyota RAV4 EV had a 50 kWh battery pack with 41.8 kWh available for use. It achieved a 103 mile EPA rated range. This car used a Tesla Motors drivetrain and battery pack, though the motor was rated at only 154 HP. It weighed roughly 400 lbs less than the Model S 60.

Something here does not compute.

Simple rolling resistance... RAV4 EV has large tires and lot more wind resistance. it's KW per mile is going to be much higher than Model S/D or Roadster.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

I am pretty ignorant as to the specifics of what a battery pack can do and how, but I think my ignorance will be similar to the vast majority of buyers. To me, range is everything. I will get the bigger battery pack regardless of its size. I am hoping for 300 miles of useful realistic range. If they can do that in a 50 kWh battery...great. If they need 100 kWh battery to do it...great. Just give me that 300 miles of range.

Just my ignorant $.02

Dan

 

[brianman]

Whatever the battery sizes are, when the time comes for us to place our orders, I hope Tesla has a very clear chart showing mileage and 0-60 and top speed numbers for every power combination. Single motor or dual, small battery or large, regular or insane mode, ludicrous speed, etc.

My crystal ball says this will be incredibly muddy and/or not documented at all.

 

[brianman]

Yeah, with this statement: "The average energy content of a 3 pack is certainly going to be less than 75 kilowatt. It doesn't clearly need to be anywhere near 75 kilowatt to achieve the range of 215 miles."

I take it to mean by "average" battery pack he meant base battery pack. The base battery pack will certainly be far less that 75 kWh, but that doesn't mean they won't release a larger battery pack than that.

I have trouble with that interpretation, because "< 60" for the base pack was already disclosed well before the CC.

 

[Swampgator]

JRP3,

You keep telling us that Randy is often incorrect and overestimates things like weight savings, etc. I am open to being shown the facts, but from what I have seen he has been the most predictive analyst I have found. Some support for your position would be helpful to our discussion.

 

[juanmedina]

Elon also said that the averages car will cost $42k; those that means that the

That's what I'm placing my hopes on, holding back on Model 3 just to protect Model S doesn't really promote their end goal of sustainable transportation.

Agree, the model 3 is the future not the model S.