Tesla confirms Model 3 will have less than 60kWh battery option

[ecarfan]

You'd better believe the Model 3 will have the highest range/performance economically feasible for that price point targeted to the most consumers possible, not just the rich ones. This car is supposed to appeal to the masses and compete against ICE cars at a similar price point, not the Model S.

Agreed. The base battery for the 3 only needs to be enough to go just over 200 real world miles (excluding extreme weather conditions). Tesla is applying a decade of market research and EV experience and concluding that is an adequate range for a majority of potential buyers at the Model 3 price point. Of course many people want more range, and there will be an optional higher capacity battery. I'm expecting it will provide over 250 miles of real world range.

We are not yet at the point in battery evolution where a 300+ mile range battery can be offered at an affordable price for the average car buyer. Give it another 5 years and that may well be possible. In 10 years, definitely.

 

[brianman]

As long as we are making stuff up...

Interpreting != making stuff up.

 

[arjay]

Interpreting != making stuff up.

Sorry for the confusion. I was referring to all of our collective speculation within this thread, not to any one interpretation in particular.

 

[brianman]

Sorry for the confusion. I was referring to all of our collective speculation within this thread, not to any one interpretation in particular.

Understood. Apologies for the mixup as well.

 

[MP3Mike]

Agreed. The base battery for the 3 only needs to be enough to go just over 200 real world miles (excluding extreme weather conditions).

No, the base battery needs to go over 215 miles on the EPA 5-cycle test. (At least that is the only number that Elon/Tesla has given us.)That is not necessarily real world. In fact you will likely get more than that on the highway going a reasonable speed. And likely less than that in city driving and stop-n-go traffic. So it all depends on what you consider "real world miles".

 

[zuwarrior14]

The one thing that concerns me most about both Elon Musk and JB Straubel is that they seem to each have a very clear understanding of what they believe is 'enough' battery capacity, and thus, maximum range for mass market acceptance -- and that number is probably far lower than I would prefer. I think that JB in particular would love for every car to have exactly 'enough' and no more, even as an option. I believe that Elon agrees with him, because he just wants to offer as many vehicles as possible to the public so that a greater quantity of ICE vehicles are displaced by fully electric ones.

I'm reminded of the story that is attributed to Bill Gates saying something like, "640 kb is plenty! No one will ever need more than that." I honestly believe that Tesla Motors made a serious mistake in even considering a 40 kWh battery pack for the Model S. I point out that the highest capacity battery pack has always been the best seller for the Model S. A lower capacity version might manage as much as 25% to 30%, as was the case with 60 kWh and now 70 kWh versions.

But I am afraid that instead of offering 60 kWh and 90 kWh versions of Model ☰... Or even better, 70 kWh and 100 kWh capacities for it to start... Tesla Motors may instead choose to offer 55 kWh and 75 kWh versions -- declaring them to be 'enough'.

Because, let's face it... A difference of 15 kWh to 25 kWh for potential maximum capacity makes for a sizable amount reserved to build the next car on the line. It will be interesting to see what Range/Performance balance Elon and JB choose to launch Tesla Generation III.

I usually agree with most of your threads, but as far as "is enough" vs. "is plenty" it might be different under the context. They need to reduce cost, push it out faster (can make only so much without Giga Factory going full force), and etc... In addition, the idea of reducing the "kWH" and sustain the same efficient will make the car charge faster. I am speculating of where Elon Musk is coming from, but that doesn't mean I agree with him since I want bigger battery.

 

[Jullian Minor]

Do they have the option for the 75 KWh? or the base model come

A 55kwh pack with 215 mile range breaks down to about 3.91 mi/kWh.

If tesla decides to reach 300 miles of range with the upgraded pack, they would need a 75-80 kWh pack depending on how much the extra weight reduces some range.

If the total pack (with cooling and all) is $190 per kWh then the 75 and 80 kWh pack will be $14,250 and $15,200 respectively (possibly lower depending on fixed costs).

$7,500 for the upgraded pack sounds doable. Especially considering pack prices will continue to drop as we approach Model 3 production.

So is there an option to add the 75 KWh to the Tesla model 3? or does the new model only come with 60 KWh and below?

 

[Zoomit]

It's broadly accepted that there will be at least two battery levels, similar to the S/X. The actual capacity of larger, optional battery is unknown to those outside Tesla.

 

[brianman]

It's broadly accepted that there will be at least two battery levels, similar to the S/X. The actual capacity of larger, optional battery is unknown to those outside Tesla.

...assumed...

 

[Zoomit]

semantics. You accept an assumption.

Anyone here think there will be only one battery available for the Model 3?

 

[Swampgator]

The will be at least one upgraded battery. The VP driving the car said so.

 

[Swampgator]

Ok,

Got a chance to play around with the drag spreadsheet a bit. There are of course some variables we do not know proper values for.
The key ones are weight and Area of the drag surface. I estimate the weight of the BASE model to be 1545KG based upon Elons stated goal of AT LEAST a 20% weight reduction from similar model s and some of Randy Carlsons predictions.. That means a 50Kwh battery would get 2018 mile range at the CdA given from this spreadsheet. If the area is lower than the spreadsheet by 10% for example (2.0) a 44 kwH battery gives a range of 204 miles.

 

[geoffreak]

That means a 50Kwh battery would get 2018 mile range at the CdA given from this spreadsheet.

I'm assuming you mean 218 miles?

 

[Zoomit]

Elons stated goal of AT LEAST a 20% weight reduction from similar model s

I was not aware of this statement. Can you point me to when/where it was said?

 

[Zoomit]

If the area is lower than the spreadsheet by 10% for example (2.0) a 44 kwH battery gives a range of 204 miles.

I'd be curious to see your other inputs, but a 2.0 m2 area is about 80% of the area of a Model S. Assuming the same height, and arguably the Model 3 is actually taller, that would require the Model 3 to be about 1560mm (61.4 in) wide. That's the same width as a smart fortwo.

I'll guess that the Model 3 frontal area is 2.14 m2 or 23 ft2.

 

[LargeHamCollider]

The one thing that concerns me most about both Elon Musk and JB Straubel is that they seem to each have a very clear understanding of what they believe is 'enough' battery capacity, and thus, maximum range for mass market acceptance -- and that number is probably far lower than I would prefer. I think that JB in particular would love for every car to have exactly 'enough' and no more, even as an option. I believe that Elon agrees with him, because he just wants to offer as many vehicles as possible to the public so that a greater quantity of ICE vehicles are displaced by fully electric ones.

I'm reminded of the story that is attributed to Bill Gates saying something like, "640 kb is plenty! No one will ever need more than that." I honestly believe that Tesla Motors made a serious mistake in even considering a 40 kWh battery pack for the Model S. I point out that the highest capacity battery pack has always been the best seller for the Model S. A lower capacity version might manage as much as 25% to 30%, as was the case with 60 kWh and now 70 kWh versions.

But I am afraid that instead of offering 60 kWh and 90 kWh versions of Model ☰... Or even better, 70 kWh and 100 kWh capacities for it to start... Tesla Motors may instead choose to offer 55 kWh and 75 kWh versions -- declaring them to be 'enough'.

Because, let's face it... A difference of 15 kWh to 25 kWh for potential maximum capacity makes for a sizable amount reserved to build the next car on the line. It will be interesting to see what Range/Performance balance Elon and JB choose to launch Tesla Generation III.

Keep in mind a M3 with a 75kwh pack would get over 300 miles EPA range, I think it's a little much to complain when this option would have more range than the the longest range MS currently available.

 

[zenmaster]

Keep in mind a M3 with a 75kwh pack would get over 300 miles EPA range, I think it's a little much to complain when this option would have more range than the the longest range MS currently available.

What does one thing have to do with another? Assuming it's possible, any complaint should be based on option cost.

 

[FlatSix911]

Take a look at the early Model S 40kWh and 60kWh batteries for comparison.
The Model 3 can probably achieve +20% gain in performance and range with these batteries.

 

[Swampgator]

Elon's comments were on a conference call, I think the one earlier this year where they discussed the units shipped/delivered in Q1 (but not the most recent q1 call)

Yes, 218 miles

As far as area, a Nissan Altima has a 22 ft2 so the 3 will be about that or lower

 

[Zoomit]

Got it, thanks. It was the Q415 CC. He said, "I think the way to think of the cost difference is really that the Model 3, being a sedan, it is about 20% lighter than -- and actually, quite a bit less complex to manufacture than the Model S."