Tesla Energy and utility scale projects

[EinSV]

I think the Bloomberg piece this week on GF2 is likely to become very much like @danahull 's infamous "Tesla doesn't burn fuel, it burns cash" article on the Model 3 this past April. Dana fanned the flames (*cough*) of bankruptcy concerns that were running wild at the time while failing to recognize the obvious signs that Tesla was positioning the Model 3 program to be a great success as soon as production ramped up.

Bloomberg's critical GF2 article focuses primarily on the negatives of Tesla's solar business and fails to point out to readers the developments suggesting that Tesla has restructured the business so that it can be successful as soon as solar roof ramps up. And the local reporting from the Buffalo papers point to signs that the ramp is about to begin, which are also not reported in the Bloomberg article.

Dana Hull's "Tesla burns cash" article ignored obvious signs that Tesla was positioning the Model 3 to be successful, and a few months later looks even more ridiculous than it did at the time now that those signs have borne fruit. I think the same will likely be true for Bloomberg's reporting on GF2.

Unfortunately, most of Bloomberg's reporters seem more interested in attacking Tesla than providing even-handed information that may be useful to their investor readers.

 

[replicant]

I think the Bloomberg piece this week on GF2 is likely to become very much like @danahull 's infamous "Tesla doesn't burn fuel, it burns cash" article on the Model 3 this past April. Dana fanned the flames (*cough*) of bankruptcy concerns that were running wild at the time while failing to recognize the obvious signs that Tesla was positioning the Model 3 program to be a great success as soon as production ramped up.

Bloomberg's critical GF2 article focuses primarily on the negatives of Tesla's solar business and fails to point out to readers the developments suggesting that Tesla has restructured the business so that it can be successful as soon as solar roof ramps up. And the local reporting from the Buffalo papers point to signs that the ramp is about to begin, another point not reflected in the Bloomberg article.

Dana Hull's "Tesla burns cash" article ignored obvious signs that Tesla was positioning the Model 3 to be successful, and a few months later looks even more ridiculous than it did at the time now that those signs have borne fruit. I think the same will likely be true for Bloomberg's reporting on GF2.

Unfortunately, most of Bloomberg's reporters seem more interested in attacking Tesla than providing even-handed information that may be useful to their investor readers.

Bloomberg lives on price volatility. Not value.

That's why they take every opportunity to tarnish or embellish a subject "downwind", and reverse the coverage at the last possible moment – i.e when they sense an inevitable change in the wind. Rinse and repeat.

 

[Vitold]

I think the Bloomberg piece this week on GF2 is likely to become very much like @danahull 's infamous "Tesla doesn't burn fuel, it burns cash" article on the Model 3 this past April. Dana fanned the flames (*cough*) of bankruptcy concerns that were running wild at the time while failing to recognize the obvious signs that Tesla was positioning the Model 3 program to be a great success as soon as production ramped up.

Bloomberg's critical GF2 article focuses primarily on the negatives of Tesla's solar business and fails to point out to readers the developments suggesting that Tesla has restructured the business so that it can be successful as soon as solar roof ramps up. And the local reporting from the Buffalo papers point to signs that the ramp is about to begin, another point not reflected in the Bloomberg article.

Dana Hull's "Tesla burns cash" article ignored obvious signs that Tesla was positioning the Model 3 to be successful, and a few months later looks even more ridiculous than it did at the time now that those signs have borne fruit. I think the same will likely be true for Bloomberg's reporting on GF2.

Unfortunately, most of Bloomberg's reporters seem more interested in attacking Tesla than providing even-handed information that may be useful to their investor readers.

It is a hit piece. Lots of buts, focused on the past, positive paragraph sandwiched in and filled with snarky quotes from former employees.

Next year GF2 will start production of solar roof and has already started using GF2 panels exclusively (something that article gets also wrong). This is their las chance to paint GF2 in a bad light.

 

[EinSV]

It is a hit piece. Lots of buts, focused on the past, positive paragraph sandwiched in and filled with snarky quotes from former employees.

Next year GF2 will start production of solar roof and has already started using GF2 panels exclusively (something that article gets also wrong). This is their las chance to paint GF2 in a bad light.

One other thing that stands out to me is that when Tesla merged with Solar City, there was a huge hue and cry about how Solar City's bloated cost structure (and debt) would bankrupt Tesla. That was one of the big bear talking points against the merger and was all over the news for many months. Now that Tesla has reorganized the sales function with a much leaner and more sustainable cost structure, the Bloomberg article criticizes Tesla for laying off sales employees in those unsustainable jobs, with no mention of the short-seller/bear bankruptcy fearmongering, or the potential benefits of the restructuring to Tesla's solar business.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Keep in mind the cost basis of standard panels coming out of GF2. High quality, high efficiency, American made, all at a decent price. If/When residential takes off again in the spring those standard panels will be wildly popular. They're being used in a city-sponsored residential solar initiative in Philly and you can see people's faces pop up when Buffalo and Tesla are mentioned.

NY state paid for so much of that place, I don't see how it could ever possibility be a drag on profitability. Automotive being profitable now buys Energy a bit more time to develop things like solar roof.

 

[Vitold]

One other thing that stands out to me is that when Tesla merged with Solar City, there was a huge hue and cry about how Solar City's bloated cost structureNow that Tesla has reorganized the sales function with a much leaner and more sustainable cost structure, the Bloomberg article criticizes Tesla for laying off sales employees in those unsustainable jobs, with no mention of the short-seller/bear bankruptcy fearmongering, or the potential benefits of the restructuring to Tesla's solar business.

This article is written for government subsidies are bad camp. They would have preferred if GF2 failed so they could get their point. Next year we will see more articles how robots are replacing humans.

I don’t disagree with their point of view and someone should keep Tesla’s feet to the fire but in a constructive way. Unfortunately news reporting is dead and we get partisan opinion pieces.

 

[EinSV]

This caught my attention.

Courtesy of our friends at reneweconomy.com, Australian Labor Party leader Bill Shorten just announced a renewable energy platform that includes the goal of 1 million household batteries by 2025. Impressive. Shorten targets one million household batteries, focus on renewables

Not sure when the next elections will take place or what Labor's odds are but maybe @SPadival or other TMC Aussies can weigh in.

 

[SPadival]

Not sure when the next elections will take place or what Labor's odds are but maybe @SPadival or other TMC Aussies can weigh in.

Pretty good chance Labor will win. Libs formed a one seat majority government in the last election!

 

[neroden]

It looks like if Kauai had a few more storage installations like the Tesla install already there, the batteries could supply 100% of the load for an extended period of time which could eliminate outages like this one.

I'm actually a bit surprised that the combination of batteries and solar wasn't sufficient to keep the grid running for longer considering that the outage happened in the middle of the day when solar should be producing. KIUC claims that when it's sunny 90% of the energy on the grid is from renewables, mostly solar with over 50 MW of solar installed. Renewables | Kauai Island Utility Cooperative The plant that tripped is a 39 MW oil burning power plant.

Would be very interesting to get a more detailed report.

A lot of solar is designed to turn off when the rest of the grid drops; they probably need to retrofit some of the older solar farms to be "leaders" rather than "followers".

 

[neroden]

Pretty good chance Labor will win. Libs formed a one seat majority government in the last election!

The Libs are trying to postpone elections as long as humanly possible, but they have to go to the polls before 2 November 2019. Most people think they'll go to the polls before 18 May 2019 because they have to have a half-Senate election then, and it would just be a real jerk move to do that and not have a House of Commons election, but they're such jerks they might do it.

If enough COALition MPs defect (and I think it only takes 1 or 2) they'll have a vote of no confidence and the election will happen immediately. They seem to be baaaing sheep, though.

Meanwhile, watch the Victoria state election tomorrow; Labor is favored to stay in power, but it's close. It's important that Labor stay in power because the Victorian Liberals are openly hostile to renewables (unlike the SA Liberals).

 

[SPadival]

The Libs are trying to postpone elections as long as humanly possible, but they have to go to the polls before 2 November 2019. Most people think they'll go to the polls before 18 May 2019 because they have to have a half-Senate election then, and it would just be a real jerk move to do that and not have a House of Commons election, but they're such jerks they might do it.

If enough COALition MPs defect (and I think it only takes 1 or 2) they'll have a vote of no confidence and the election will happen immediately. They seem to be baaaing sheep, though.

Meanwhile, watch the Victoria state election tomorrow; Labor is favored to stay in power, but it's close. It's important that Labor stay in power because the Victorian Liberals are openly hostile to renewables (unlike the SA Liberals).

Wow. Are you a secret Aussie?

To add to the above, our current Prime Minister (he was treasurer then) used a lump of coal as a prop in parliament Scott Morrison brings coal to question time: what fresh idiocy is this? | Katharine Murphy

Also, the coal lobby have their own mascot
Mining mascot gets raked over the coals

 

[neroden]

Wow. Are you a secret Aussie?

Big fan of kangaroos and wombats.

Also a world politics junkie, if you hadn't noticed already.

Plus, this stuff gets covered *so* well by RenewEconomy that it's easy to follow.

BTW, Labor won in Victoria, and is promising *even more* battery installations, both large and household-sized. So that market will grow.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

NY state paid for so much of that place, I don't see how it could ever possibility be a drag on profitability. Automotive being profitable now buys Energy a bit more time to develop things like solar roof.

Continuing on this point....

Let's not forget the marketing structure of Tesla overall. Each new residential solar customer, which as a product carries a negative monthly cost impact, is a potential vehicle buyer. The average American can go solar @ $2.65/W a hell of a lot easier than transitioning to a Model 3 @$50k.

Perhaps Elon has figured out that solar might be an easier lever to get mainstream customers into the Tesla ecosystem? On paper it certainly is.

With a lot of the GF2 costs picked up by NY state, they can afford to do standard solar installs without profit. The ancillary benefit to the org on a customer acquisition basis is massive. Charge $2.65/W to drive demand with minimal sales cost, and the business will flow on its own.

 

[SPadival]

BTW, Labor won in Victoria, and is promising *even more* battery installations, both large and household-sized. So that market will grow.

Yes. And you may be interested in this ad for Tesla power walls by the next prime minister of Australia

S Padival on Twitter

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Tesla's giant 'Virtual Power Plant' made of 50k homes and Powerwalls enters 2nd phase

 

[generalenthu]

This is massive. I was wondering who will be supplying vistra with the massive storage capacity, and it's clear it's Tesla.

Tesla’s new Megapack to debut at giant energy storage project in California

 

[EinSV]

This is a sonnen project on its home-court in Germany but shows the potential for widespread adoption of storage to work with renewables to replace conventional sources of energy, if the right regulatory environment is in place.

"Batteries in private households will be now able to perform the 'same tasks as a conventional power plant', across the whole of Germany, the CEO of Sonnen has said, following a ruling that opens up grid services markets to the company’s devices."

“It’s significant because it’s a technological breakthrough. Our home storage network fulfills now the same tasks as a conventional power plant under the same requirements. Not in a project or a test but under real circumstances with real households.”​

Sounds pretty cool. Not clear from the article whether/how Tesla might participate in this market.

Sonnen: Residential batteries ready to compete with fossil fuels and nuclear in Germany

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Sounds pretty cool. Not clear from the article whether/how Tesla might participate in this market.

This is the true wheelhouse of SolarCity 2015/16. The Rive brothers were all about aggregation of residential battery storage into virtual power plants. No idea if that's still the case on the energy side of TSLA now that they're gone. Obvious MASSIVE revenue potential in this.

US ratepayers get the rights they need and deserve.
Tesla provides the hardware AND services.
That's a trillion dollar market.

 

[EinSV]

This is the true wheelhouse of SolarCity 2015/16. The Rive brothers were all about aggregation of residential battery storage into virtual power plants. No idea if that's still the case on the energy side of TSLA now that they're gone. Obvious MASSIVE revenue potential in this.

US ratepayers get the rights they need and deserve.
Tesla provides the hardware AND services.
That's a trillion dollar market.

JB mentioned a few times last year the plan to aggressively ramp up the Powerwall part of the storage business. They have larger residential projects like the South Australia virtual power plant and Vermont, a significant number of Powerwalls being installed in California, and I expect we'll hear a lot more about Powerwall (and Powerpack/Megapack) in 2019-20 now that Model 3 battery production seems to have stabilized.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

It'll be real interesting in 2021 when tons and tons of Powerwalls are spread across CA and Tesla offers to aggregate power on behalf of homeowners. How quickly will they draft up that regulatory language and push for a wildly popular ballot initiative? Tens of thousands of Powerwalls floating out there will flip a regulatory switch, instantly gaining all the power over centralized utilities and fossil producers.

That'll be an interesting week on the TMC Investor Forum.