Buckminster
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Tesla are well placed to sell solar powered trailers with the semi:
Solar-panel-covered hybrid truck offers 3,000 to 6,000 free miles a year
Solar-panel-covered hybrid truck offers 3,000 to 6,000 free miles a year
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Buckminster
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Buckminster
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Buckminster
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mspohr
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Buckminster
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mspohr
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Doggydogworld
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I don't know what record they think they broke. Alta went over 30% with dual-junction cells. I think their single junction GaAs cells did 29%, though that may have been with concentration. The multi-junction record was 47.1% at 143 suns concentration and 39.2% at 1 sun in 2020. But Fraunhofer recently announced 47.6% at 665 suns and NREL hit 39.5% at 1 sun.
Saudi researchers recently claimed the dual-junction aka tandem cell record of 33.2% under 1 sun.
This new Australian research cell uses a triple junction layer plus a separate orthoganol silicon layer plus a filtering mirror to split the incoming sunlight. It's interesting, but sounds spectacularly impractical.
Buckminster
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Buckminster
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These would work well in megapacks. It is unlikely that they will be used in megapacks but it allows for huge flexibility. Tesla can build and purchase a limitless number of LFP or NMC 4680s and interchange between auto and energy as required.Further to the NMC cells now under development at Dr. Jeff Dahn's laboratory in Halifax, the latest published test results show no degradation of the cells over the last several thousand cycles: That's right: the cells appear effectively to have stopped aging, and are cycling 4x daily with well over 90% of their Day-0 capacity.
Further, due to additonal research done by a grad student at this lab, these cells may have a shelf-life of 100 years: (no parasitic side-reactions are occurring)
In fact, newly-hired scientists at Dr. Dahn lab have recently added new test equipment at the cell-test facility to monitor 'out-gassing' of cells, which seems to be a directly-measurable by-product of the side-reactions associated with cell degradation. Significantly, the NMC 5-3-2 cells now under test don't show this off-gassing:
Fast-forward to the end-game: what if Tesla announced a 20-year warranty on it's new Cybertruck battery packs? What if it announced a hundred?! (well, seriously...) Or how about a 4-million mile warranty on Semi batteries? The economic implications for the logistics industry are mind-bogglingly good. Perhaps half the cost of a diesel semi? Or is it 1/4?
Cheers to the Scientists!
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
LFP has a cost advantage of ~40% vs nickel chemistries due to the rarity of nickel. For stationary storage, sodium ion may compete with LFP one day, but I've yet to see the longevity (cycle-life) that is needed for 20 years of daily cycling. Dr. Jeff Dahn's working on it:
For Automotive cells, Dr. Dahn's lab is working on a different path forward:
Cheers!
Buckminster
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Buckminster
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Buckminster
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View attachment 990097
As the two attached files show, the expectations are for weaker plower plants to grow substantially during the next few years. According to the International Energy Agency there were roughly 1800 GW of peaked plants worldwide in 2019. The growth alone will be in excess of 50GW per year, but the replacements for obsolete plants are likely to be about three times that size.
The peaker plant lead time for a battery storage solution is less than half that of the next fastest turbine installation and much cheaper. Further the battery storage solution can and does act as near-instantaneous grid services solutions to stabilize both frequency and voltage, something no other solution can accomplish. That, in turn, reduces power outages and maintenance requirements for other infrastructure, whether state-of-the-art or decrepit. (For copies documentation just search for Hornsdale Power Reserve, which acts as a Tesla Energy reference.
So, now that even the traditional peaker plant /utility/grid services providers are moving into this field.
How much can Tesla penetrate this business? Bluntly the answer is how much can Tesla supply? Tesla is expanding Lathrop and negotiating for other factories and battery supplies to build more Megabucks and increase the capacity of present ones. The recent quarterly reports show a >20% margin, quite remarkable.
I expect this business to grow by an average of 40% PA with stable >20% margins for the next several years, with Tesla market share never exceeding 20%. Why? Simply, the traditional solutions are becoming more expensive, less reliable and far less effective than are battery storage facilities. More importantly, hydroelectric is becoming less stable due to climate change (search for Itaipu and Three Gorges for two dramatic cases in point) natural gas supplies are becoming more volatile, and energy demands become more unstable due to growth in air conditioning and other factors. Those all suggest that weaker requirements will grow even faster than the forecasts.
View attachment 990108
Since InsideEVs has made a handy little chart it's easy to see what happens when Tesla makes a deal with CATL for battery supply. Now just imagine what will happen as all those battery plants come into production and it's easy to imagine that Elon is quite correct it seeing a BESS (Battery Energy Storage System) future growth that is nearly limitless, even aided by the many other entrants.
Just for context, the competitors are less the traditional utility system providers than they are Chinese entrants, aided by State Grid, CATL and others which have been responsible for building and operating the only major national grid that is truly modern. Such are the benefits of coming from no grid at all to a completely new one.
Perhaps oddly, Tesla probably benefits from success in dealing with China and Chinese companies when thinking of near-global grid support needs.
Buckminster
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Buckminster
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