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Tesla EV Tax Credits coming back?

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I don't really think it's too biased. I've been following that thread well before most people even knew about potential EV tax incentives and even as EV credit discussion and info became more widespread, it's had a pretty minimal impact on the majority of folks on that thread. There definitely are those like me who have been playing the long game (I ordered in April and have been waiting patiently to see if anything happens with the incentives), but we are a very small minority on there. Even on this thread, which should be heavily biased to those like me, there are folks who either weren't really aware about any of this stuff and accepted deliveries or others who have had other reasons to take up their orders right away.

And that's setting aside the fact that a very small section of the average consumers who aren't obsessively reading forums/reddit even know anything about BBB and the potential for EV incentives for Tesla. If anything, the sampling here should be more biased towards those who might be influenced to put a hold on their orders because there is lots of discussion about the incentives on many threads and that stuff is inescapable. In the real world, the Venn diagram intersection of people with Tesla orders, who don't need a car asap, who actually are even aware of potential EV incentives, trust the legislation to pass, and have the patience to not give into the desire for instant gratification isn't all that large imo. And I don't think I'm wrong on that front as Tesla really hasn't had to make any drastic changes to how they are operating and nothing related has made the news either.
Really good points, here are a few more:
There are less than 1000 "registrations" in the order tracker spreadsheet of doom here in the Y forum.
Tesla has sold at least 100x more than that in the US alone, over the last two quarters.
There are 1999 people online right now as I post, including over 500 members and over 1400 visitors.

Seems logical to conclude the intersection between people closely tracking BBB / possible EV incentives AND purchasing a Tesla is probably low, and its easy to fall into the confirmation bias trap when participating in threads such as this.
 
Claiming this is a bigger issue with no data or sampling isn't very convincing either...

I'm only claiming that your group is a grossly unrepresentative, self-selected and biased one compared to the larger Tesla buying population.
Extrapolating anything from an enthusiast user forum is ... a fool's errand

I spent my career grappling with selection bias. Your example is not subtle.
 
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Case in point. Here is the most recent post (and apologies to the author for singling out your post):

Inching closer. Though I’m on the east coast, I have a good feeling I’ll get my car before EOY. Getting excited!!

Now I don’t know this member’s circumstances other than they live in NJ. Maybe they already know they wouldn’t qualify for the credit. In my case, I would be hoping the car shows up in early Jan not EOY. But this is a typical post, leading me to wonder whether there really aren’t that many people delaying their orders.
 
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I'm pretty optimistic something will pass, and again am focusing on the EV aspect as being low drama compared with other sections of the bill that may be excised and dealt with separately later.
Oh I think something will pass too. I just don’t think it will be what the house just passed. Agree the EV credits are low drama, I think the Union bonus will be axed and possibly the income limit or MSRP limits tweaked.
 
I'm only claiming that your group is a grossly unrepresentative, self-selected and biased one compared to the larger Tesla buying population.
Extrapolating anything from an enthusiast user forum is ... a fool's errand

I spent my career grappling with selection bias. Your example is not subtle.
I do think you’re right about this. Anyone who goes out of their way to join this forum and then post on a thread dedicated to people sharing their daily EDD updates is clearly excited to receive their car, perhaps enough to overlook $8K just to receive it a few weeks earlier. (I know… there is the potential that a hold will delay the car for months not weeks. I’m just surprised at those hoping for Nov and Dec delivery and then sad when it gets pushed to Jan.)

Ok I think I’ve harped on this enough. It will just have to remain a mystery.
 
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Oh I think something will pass too. I just don’t think it will be what the house just passed. Agree the EV credits are low drama, I think the Union bonus will be axed and possibly the income limit or MSRP limits tweaked.
Best case scenario.

- No union BS bonus

- Income limits revised to 100/125/150 with up to 25% elasticity for region specific COL — Possible voucher system vs filing for tax abatement.

- Price limits (Must include destination):
40K Sedan,
50K SUV/Truck <6K GVWR,
75K SUV/Truck >6K GVWR
 
Ok I think I’ve harped on this enough. It will just have to remain a mystery.

Somewhat apocryphal, I like to tell the adventures of GM and the Chevy Volt. The story goes that GM gauged interest in the Volt by asking a car forum dedicated to the Volt whether they were enthusiastic about the Volt and likely buyers. GM was inundated with positive responses, and proceeded to not only bring the Volt to market but to issue rosy predictions of up to 200k sales a year. Actual sales barely reached 1/10 that amount, and only with GM subsidy that made the Volt a money loser for GM. It was killed after two generations.

Which was OK by GM, since they were bailed-out for their efforts. But that is another story.
 
Best case scenario.

- No union BS bonus

- Income limits revised to 100/125/150 with up to 25% elasticity for region specific COL — Possible voucher system vs filing for tax abatement.

- Price limits (Must include destination):
40K Sedan,
50K SUV/Truck <6K GVWR,
75K SUV/Truck >6K GVWR
That would be garbage.
 
What’s wrong with targeting subsidy toward people who actually need it?

Upper middle and above (Present Company included) DO NOT need an incentive to purchase an EV and to do so is just high end welfare.
Define need. All the people I know that have a Y or 3 on order will cancel if the EV subsidy doesn’t pass and buy a cheaper hybrid instead. These people all make more than your threshold. The whole point of the Rebate is to promote EVs over non EVs. Why have such a low income threshold. Defeats the whole purpose.
 
Define need. All the people I know that have a Y or 3 on order will cancel if the EV subsidy doesn’t pass and buy a cheaper hybrid instead. These people all make more than your threshold. The whole point of the Rebate is to promote EVs over non EVs. Why have such a low income threshold. Defeats the whole purpose.
Pretty much. One could cook up a scenario where the 'rich' are taking EVs away from the poor AND taking the subsidy, but that is pretty clearly not the case.

It should also be noted that this EV tax credit is as much (or more) a manufacturer subsidy as it is a consumer subsidy. You just have to watch Tesla and GM car pricing to know this is so.

Those against "nandouts to the rich" should answer this question: What is more important to them -- not giving a tax credit to the rich, or not getting the EV on the road.
 
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Define need. All the people I know that have a Y or 3 on order will cancel if the EV subsidy doesn’t pass and buy a cheaper hybrid instead. These people all make more than your threshold. The whole point of the Rebate is to promote EVs over non EVs. Why have such a low income threshold. Defeats the whole purpose.
Bet they don’t cancel. But if they do, then they don’t actually care about cleaner air.

Cut out two grub hub orders per month or skip the Starbucks and it’s the same or better than some tax credit they CLEARLY don’t need.
 
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