Tesla Gigafactory Investor Thread

[pmadflyer]

Hey. I was the first person to mention it in the main GF (non-investors) thread. Thanks for making the image though.

 

[brandude87]

We are all speculating, so in general a lot of things could be plausible. However, given the conversation Elon Musk had with Andrea James during the ER, expanding production by increasing output per the square foot of the GF building is unlikely, as they specifically discussed availability of additional space at the GF Site to expand the building and production because of surprisingly strong stationary storage demand.

I think they are more likely planning for increase of the final building size, and this might require re-calibration of the construction phasing and/or size and quantity of the building sections.

You may very well be right. If so, the Gigafactory would easily become the largest building in the world by square footage on the ground (footprint), beating out the Aalsmeer Flower Auction building.

Hey. I was the first person to mention it in the main GF (non-investors) thread. Thanks for making the image though.

Sorry, pmadflyer, I didn't mean to steal your thunder. Props to you for first noticing the removal of the structure in section 5!

 

[adiggs]

No, it looks pretty clear to me. I've removed the white borders in the image below to make it more clear.

And that is why you put things together with screws and bolts instead of nails

(sorry - been building a chicken coop over the spring and I couldn't resist)

 

[doggusfluffy]

Seams reasonable enough. Now roofing has been completed on section 1 as labeled in previous posts. More concrete work has been done on section 2-3.. Think its possible they expand the factory by a couple of sections in the future. their site it huge, they will have plenty of land to do it!

The striking thing for me about this video is how tiny the massive equipment looks and just how incredibly far away the other end of the jobsite is. I hope the employee breakroom is somewhere near the middle!

 

[Fanatic]

Think this company is quite interesting. They state that in dec 2015 they will increase "monthly production capacity for lithium nickel oxide will rise from the current 850 tons to 1,850 tons." Due to demand of Panasonic/Tesla.
Wonder if they will establish a facility to process the material close to the factory. Read somewhere that the area thats been cleared east of the factory will be the place for a processing plant.

http://www.smm.co.jp/E/uploaded_files/141020-1e.pdf

Elon stated that SMM will have a section in the factory at an interview at MIT last year.
He continued stating that will be a section for Hitachi and SMM then a section for Panasonic at last Tesla would assemble it to packs.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PULkWGHeIQQ

Is it the investment in GF 1 that is implied in this article, not for another one?

https://www.yahoo.com/autos/s/tesla-urges-japanese-battery-suppliers-gigafactory-risk-110000530.html

One can only speculate but if I were to build a GF I would like the suppliers take some risk as well.

 

[RobStark]

Elon just said at the shareholders meeting that production of cells start in the middle of next year.

Previously, it was toward end of 2016.

 

[Benz]

Elon just said at the shareholders meeting that production of cells start in the middle of next year.

Previously, it was toward end of 2016.

I thought that previously (Q1 ER Conference Call?) I have heard him say Q1 2016?

If that's correct, than this would be a delay of at least three months, right?

 

[LargeHamCollider]

I also had q1 2016 in my head but don't recall the source.

 

[32no]

I also had q1 2016 in my head but don't recall the source.

It was the Q1 shareholder letter:

We are now preparing our supply chain and production teams to startvolume builds on these new products in Q3. Production will begin at theTesla Factory in Fremont, and in Q1 2016 will expand into theGigafactory and accelerate significantly.

I think what he meant was that Q1 2016 they will start final stages of gearing up in Phase 1 of Gigfactory 1 in order to start production soon after.

 

[jvonbokel]

We are now preparing our supply chain and production teams to start volume builds on these new products in Q3. Production will begin at theTesla Factory in Fremont, and in Q1 2016 will expand into the Gigafactory and accelerate significantly.

I think what he meant was that Q1 2016 they will start final stages of gearing up in Phase 1 of Gigfactory 1 in order to start production soon after.

Actually I think the "new products" that quote is referring to are the Powerwall and Powerpack. Those will begin production in Fremont in Q1, then expand into the Gigafactory in Q3, which fits with the timeline mentioned yesterday for starting cell production at the Gigafactory in the middle of the year.

Edit: Scratch that, I misread the quote. It is saying Powerwall/Powerpack production starting Q3 2015, then moving to Gigafactory Q1 2016. Seems odd for the timeline to shift by that much in such a short time, but I'd be more inclined to think one was a mistake or miscommunication than that the underlying schedule had changed that much.

 

[jjkroll]

Edit: Scratch that, I misread the quote. It is saying Powerwall/Powerpack production starting Q3 2015, then moving to Gigafactory Q1 2016. Seems odd for the timeline to shift by that much in such a short time, but I'd be more inclined to think one was a mistake or miscommunication than that the underlying schedule had changed that much.

Remember that cell production, at the Gigafactory, does not need to happen for pack production to start. I took this to mean that Powerwall/Powerpack production equipment will be operational in the Gigafactory in Q1 2016. They will use Panasonic sourced cells, from Japan, until Gigafactory cell production comes online later. So they will need to split the cell supply between Fremont and Gigafactory for awhile.

 

[jvonbokel]

Remember that cell production, at the Gigafactory, does not need to happen for pack production to start. I took this to mean that Powerwall/Powerpack production equipment will be operational in the Gigafactory in Q1 2016. They will use Panasonic sourced cells, from Japan, until Gigafactory cell production comes online later. So they will need to split the cell supply between Fremont and Gigafactory for awhile.

That sounds like a reasonable interpretation, and would fit with the various timelines mentioned.

 

[MitchJi]

Hi,

The powerpacks are very similar to the automobile packs. JB said that their profit margin on powerpacks (priced at $250 per kWh) assembled in fremont is about 20%. He then said that the profit margin on powerpacks produced at the GF will be a little better. Two things will reduce the price substantially, economies of scale, "at least 30%", and cells with increased energy density. So packs assembled in fremont cost tesla about $200 per kWh, and with full GF economies of scale, a maximum of $140 per kWh!

Does anyone know at what point the GF is supposed to reach either full or substantial economies of scale? Because maximum price of $140 per kWh, in addition to looking really good for M3 pricing also looks really good for either MS and MX margins, or price reductions.

The problem that drastically superior solid state cells pose for the GF, is that the production process is different as compared to current lithium cells.

 

[ggies07]

Hi,

The powerpacks are very similar to the automobile packs. JB said that their profit margin on powerpacks (priced at $250 per kWh) assembled in fremont is about 20%. He then said that the profit margin on powerpacks produced at the GF will be a little better. Two things will reduce the price substantially, economies of scale, "at least 30%", and cells with increased energy density. So packs assembled in fremont cost tesla about $200 per kWh, and with full GF economies of scale, a maximum of $140 per kWh!

Does anyone know at what point the GF is supposed to reach either full or substantial economies of scale? Because maximum price of $140 per kWh, in addition to looking really good for M3 pricing also looks really good for either MS and MX margins, or price reductions.

The problem that drastically superior solid state cells pose for the GF, is that the production process is different as compared to current lithium cells.

Thanks for the tidbits. If I remember correctly, the full scale is supposed to hit around 2020.

 

[32no]

Hi,

The powerpacks are very similar to the automobile packs. JB said that their profit margin on powerpacks (priced at $250 per kWh) assembled in fremont is about 20%. He then said that the profit margin on powerpacks produced at the GF will be a little better. Two things will reduce the price substantially, economies of scale, "at least 30%", and cells with increased energy density. So packs assembled in fremont cost tesla about $200 per kWh, and with full GF economies of scale, a maximum of $140 per kWh!

Does anyone know at what point the GF is supposed to reach either full or substantial economies of scale? Because maximum price of $140 per kWh, in addition to looking really good for M3 pricing also looks really good for either MS and MX margins, or price reductions.

The problem that drastically superior solid state cells pose for the GF, is that the production process is different as compared to current lithium cells.

Where and when did JB say this? Do you have a link?

 

[rtz]

How about an update on the rail link? Can anyone confirm the "end of the line" is still at where the arrow points too? I don't know if that route is certain. Or would they branch off the main line from the north?

Google Maps

 

[chickensevil]

How about an update on the rail link? Can anyone confirm the "end of the line" is still at where the arrow points too? I don't know if that route is certain. Or would they branch off the main line from the north?

View attachment 84110

Google Maps

I believe it was stated elsewhere previously that it would be a new branch off from the north. Could be wrong...

 

[hummingbird]

Where and when did JB say this? Do you have a link?

At video link below JB actually said better than $100 per kWh by 2020 (which is only 5 years from now). JB was the keynote at 2015 EIA Energy Conference yesterday talking about this but that video is not yet available ( 2015 EIA Energy Conference )

Here, in early June he said $100 by 2020: (go to mark 36:00)

Elon Musk and JB Straubel share their vision on energy (2015) - YouTube

At $100 per kWh, cars like the Nissan Leaf and VW e-Golf with 200-mile range will hit price point of $20,000 before government subsidies. At that point the utility industry will be completely transformed as well. Pretty amazing.

 

[strangethingintheland]

Where and when did JB say this? Do you have a link?

I note the videos which quote JB Straubel giving the 2020 scenario. However, the reference to the 20% margins was, I believe in the most recent quarterly conference call. And I remember it a little differently. Namely, while we are still making things in Fremont the margins would be modest, but once we transfer assembly to the GF we can expect margins in the 20's.

 

[MartinAustin]

At $100 per kWh, cars like the Nissan Leaf and VW e-Golf with 200-mile range will hit price point of $20,000 before government subsidies. At that point the utility industry will be completely transformed as well. Pretty amazing.

Just a thought... while Tesla Motors is in the business to accelerate the change to sustainable transport (and note, the words "make profit" are not contained in that phrase), the other manufacturers are still in the business to "make as much profit as we can every year." This means, they will price their electric cars as high as they possibly can - and claim that batteries are just darned expensive. If this means pricing them at n-500 where n is the price of a Tesla Model 3, they might do that. If Tesla can't produce enough cars to meet demand, the other manufacturers might be able to get a taste, and buyers won't mind paying n-500.

Something else to watch: Tesla says "no servicing required to meet the warranty." Will the other manufacturers also say this? The dealer-service cartel may be hard pressed to match it.

(sort of OT, apologies)