Tesla Gigafactory

[ggies07]

Wow, with all these threads on the gigafactory, it looks like it might need its own forum section. It's getting hard to keep up.

hahaha. I was thinking the same thing. +1

 

[Bifff67]

Question for one/some of you numbers types. Which of those four states has the most solar energy per unit area over the long term. And which mighty have the most wind energy?

 

[reddy]

Question for one/some of you numbers types. Which of those four states has the most solar energy per unit area over the long term. And which mighty have the most wind energy?

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Question for one/some of you numbers types. Which of those four states has the most solar energy per unit area over the long term. And which mighty have the most wind energy?

 

[TD1]

somewhere around El Paso looks like a good spot.
Its amazing to see that Germany is the world leader in photovoltaic installation although it gets so little sun.

 

[Mario Kadastik]

Seems to me that the interesting ratio is that of cars to produced pack capacity. If they do 50 GWh/year of packs and 500,000 cars/year, that comes out to an average of 100KWh/car. Not sure how that breaks down between Model S/X and the mass market car, but it sure sounds to me like they're going to have some very large battery capacity cars in a few years.

Look at the math this way: if the Model E has a 50 KWh battery, and their production breaks down as 400K Model E, 50K Model S and 50K Model X, then the E's consume 50 KWh/car * 400,000 cars = 20 GWh of packs. That means that the average X/S must use 30 GWh/100,000 cars = 300 KWh/car. If the pack mass is the same as the current 85 KWh battery, that's about 850 miles of range. Personally, I think that seems ridiculous, so either they expect the mix to be more heavily weighted toward Model S/X than I assumed, or (more likely) they're going to put big batteries in the Model E.

If the Model E has 85KWh batteries on average, then that's 34 GWh for the E, leaving 16 for S/X for an average of 160 KWh average S/X and about a 500 mile range.

No matter how you slice it, if the 500K car and 50 GWh numbers are right (and all the packs go into Tesla cars), then they're going to be selling some loooog range cars.

Or let's do the math differently. Let's assume 350k Model E with 50kWh packs and 150k Model S/X with ~100kWh packs average. That gives you 17.5GWh for E and 15GWh for S/X. The total being 32.5GWh. This means that 17.5GWh would go for industrial buffer batteries and residential solar battery storage packs. Assuming 30kWh packs for residential (50% of mix) and 200kWh for industry (50% mix) we get ~300k residential installations and ~45k industrial installations.

Any way you cut it it's a ******** of batteries going to all sectors of Teslas future plans.

 

[moollar]

Or let's do the math differently. Let's assume 350k Model E with 50kWh packs and 150k Model S/X with ~100kWh packs average. That gives you 17.5GWh for E and 15GWh for S/X. The total being 32.5GWh. This means that 17.5GWh would go for industrial buffer batteries and residential solar battery storage packs. Assuming 30kWh packs for residential (50% of mix) and 200kWh for industry (50% mix) we get ~300k residential installations and ~45k industrial installations.

We know that the home battery backup systems Tesla have been installing via Solar City are 10kWh systems, so it's interesting that you would say 30kWh packs for residential. Incidentally, I think that you are right as to this being a better sizing for residential, IF we assume that the home has an EV.

Let's face it, people who say that their EV is solar powered are mostly charging overnight off the grid (not many people are home during the day when the solar power is being produced by their PV systems). So, even though, in net terms, they may produce more electricity via solar than they consume, they are still reliant on the grid to power their car and home at night. Having a sufficiently sized residential battery pack (e.g. 30kWh like you mentioned) means that you can potentially free yourself from being reliant on the grid - full stop!

Residential energy storage is going to be a HUGE disruptor to the current status quo of centralised power generation, enabling the democratisation of energy production and consumption via a distributed network (assuming people getting these systems have solar PV installations on their properties as well). With the Gigafactory, Tesla is better placed to take advantage of this than any other organisation I can think of!

 

[GSP]

It looks like Elon is poised to be a major disruptor in yet another industry: electricity generation, transmission, and distribution. Solar plus battery will be less expensive than grid power in many areas such as Hawaii and other islands.

Wow.

GSP

 

[roblab]

Let's face it, people who say that their EV is solar powered are mostly charging overnight off the grid (not many people are home during the day when the solar power is being produced by their PV systems). So, even though, in net terms, they may produce more electricity via solar than they consume, they are still reliant on the grid to power their car and home at night.

I have had solar for over 10 years, consider that it has paid itself off in zero power bills. Although I am connected to the grid,I have battery backup of about 80 kWh (we often lose power for several days at a time and the well and septic use as much as the rest of the house, as does the S).

So, I must say, that the grid tie is not a reliance, but more a convenience. I don't have to suck my old tech lead acid batteries down often and they live longer, some say maybe 15 - 18 years. That's worth the interconnect fee to me.

 

[tonybelding]

Very cool that they are going to do it all in house, starting with raw materials and making the anode, cathode, separator, casing and electrolyte themselves instead of having suppliers for that. ... It's from the Tesla Fremont factory playbook.

Yes... Although you can find this strategy in older playbooks than that. For example: Ford River Rouge Complex - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia



"With its own docks in the dredgedRouge River, 100 miles (160 km) of interior railroad track, its own electricity plant, and ore processing, the titanic Rouge was able to turn raw materials into running vehicles within this single complex, a prime example of vertical-integration production."




And that's how you turn the automobile from a toy-for-the-rich into something that can change society.


For Tesla putting the focus on battery production makes every kind of sense. Internal combustion engines are highly cost-reduced, which is the only reason they're even remotely affordable. If you think about everything that goes into an engine, it's amazing what they sell for. Tesla need to give batteries a dose of that same kind of cost-reduction, and it looks like they've got the plan to do it.


Also, in the long run they need to control their own core technology. Car companies (since Henry Ford's day) have learned to outsource a lot of stuff. The engine is the one thing they almost never outsource, because that's the core technology, and it's a manufacturing business that any random startup company can't jump into. Some years ago I recall Honda's head saying that Honda isn't a car company, it's an engine company. They make engines and, incidentally, things that contain engines. For an electric car company, the key technology you want to control is batteries.

 

[Double00]

It seems like the Pecos/Ft stockton location would be an interesting location for the factory. 1) Good area for wind and solar according to some of the maps posted here at TMC. 2) Rail access to ship the battery packs. Plus Musk has already said he is considering building a Truck plant in Texas. And finally, he may be able to quell some of the anti Tesla lobbies and legislation. Plus he's got Brownsville across the state. he can launch a Falcon heavy and hot tail it over to Pecos to check out the Gigafactory

 

[3mp_kwh]

Any way you cut it it's a shitload of batteries going to all sectors of Teslas future plans.

I wasn't impressed that the plan only mentioned lithium ion, at least from what I've taken in during the last 24hrs. Stationary battery apps have tended to be sealed lead-acid, and much cheaper per unit of storage. The folks with both PV and batteries probably know this best.

 

[Johan]

I wasn't impressed that the plan only mentioned lithium ion, at least from what I've taken in during the last 24hrs. Stationary battery apps have tended to be sealed lead-acid, and much cheaper per unit of storage. The folks with both PV and batteries probably know this best.

Maybe the economics are about to change... Fast? And Tesla are aware of this?

I mean just a few years ago large cars and long distance travel tended to be exclusively combustion engine driven, right?

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

somewhere around El Paso looks like a good spot.

Well, a bit to the north in NM. El Paso doesn't seem very windy. And it depends on
(a) how much power a windy place can generate
(b) whether it's already being exploited.

Its amazing to see that Germany is the world leader in photovoltaic installation although it gets so little sun.

It's easier to motivate a population of a nation with few natural fossil resources that's a large exporter of manufactured goods.

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Locking in to Li-ion is just a mistake. Better and cheaper battery technology is coming before the gigafactory even starts production. Elon and partners will be making a big mistake thinking they will be able to undercut the competition's costs. Hopefully, they will realize this before too much longer.

Actually answering a question about 18650, but it applies to their general approach:

The first question we ask when we meet a new cell company is, show us your roadmap and your cost roadmap. Nobody wants to talk about cost—they always leave that to the end of the discussion. That’s silly. For EVs, there are some key safety and performance metrics that are foundational. They have to be there. Beyond that the most important thing is cost efficiency of energy storage. So if anyone has a more cost-efficient cell architecture, we’d be all ears. Right now nobody has proven they have a more cost-effective cell architecture than ours.

(Tesla Motors CTO talks future batteries and charging protocols - SAE International)

"Experts" have been telling Tesla for a decade that small format li-ion can't build cheap batteries, but large format manufacturers still are not competitive. Tesla doesn't care. It's a company that specializes in bundling cells into a battery and managing the battery. It will make whatever's cheapest for the foreseeable future and is building a manufacturing plant that takes in material and outputs batteries. Should any other competitive cell/battery technology suitable for automotive and back-up storage technology be reading for commercial use in a few years, Tesla will be as interested as everybody else.

Always remember: Tesla is a company with an holistic vision based on using engineering expertise to minimize costs.

 

[moollar]

I have had solar for over 10 years, consider that it has paid itself off in zero power bills. Although I am connected to the grid,I have battery backup of about 80 kWh (we often lose power for several days at a time and the well and septic use as much as the rest of the house, as does the S).

So, I must say, that the grid tie is not a reliance, but more a convenience. I don't have to suck my old tech lead acid batteries down often and they live longer, some say maybe 15 - 18 years. That's worth the interconnect fee to me.

That's fantastic! :biggrin:

I'm hoping that battery storage systems will get to a point where we can all afford to have installations like yours (even if the battery storage isn't as much as 80kWh(!) like you have).

 

[tander]

Not sure if we're still talking Gigafactory here but there was some talk of it today between Musk/Rive/CPUC guy. It's about 2 hours long, but between Musk and Lyndon Rive (SolarCity) and the California Public Utilities president, there is some pretty enlightening discussion: CPUC Video Stream

Some highlights:Thought Leaders: Elon Musk Lyndon Rive on disrupting the utility market | SiliconBeat

 

[palmer_md]

What a breathtakingly enormous facility. At 10 million square feet, it would be over twice the floor space of the Boeing Everett plant.

jdevo2004: Looks like they would ship cells from other factories to be assembled into packs at the gigafactory.

Wow. The Boeing factory is huge so the Gigafactory would be a site to see.

Wow, that is going to be a big place. Now we just wait to hear about which towns are competing for this.

Google Maps

 

[Doug_G]

I just uh, carved out out Bob Carver's discussion about ultracapacitors, as it was derailing the discussion here. Please see Gigacapacitor? for that discussion.

 

[HiTech]

Gigafactory - Reading Between The Lines

After reading about the Gigafactory (official blog by Tesla, not analyst opinions), there seems to be a lot of information assumed and/or "announced", without actually doing so. There is a lot of information that is identified (in my opinion) that makes me extremely excited about this plan. I'll try to list some with my reasons below, but ask that you help add, update, or correct my perception.

1. It almost screams the future guidance of 500,000 cars per year delivery in 2020, but didn't clearly state it as such. This could mean one of two things: i. Tesla is expecting to build and deliver roughly 500,000 cars/year around 2020; ii. They expect to have roughly 500,000 battery packs sold between Tesla and potential partners for electric cars. This leads me to my next point...

2. Something that has been in the back of my mind is why Musk has openly/eagerly pushed for competition in electric car industries. Part of this is because no one can truly challenge the Tesla currently, but I think there is something more. I think he is trying to get his arms into the battery pack systems and infrastructure (SuperChargers) to support the electric cars. In short, in 2020, Tesla may actually have the MUNI (sp?) plant be at max capacity (200-300k?) and then not worry about expanding too much afterwards. Much of their profits will start coming from contracts by competition's use of the SC network and buying of the battery packs. Maybe they will have some more factories and build 500k-1m vehicles/year, but still think they will start making large portion of their profits from other areas.

3. Battery technologies challenges: One major concern that I've had about Tesla's long term growth was the improvements in battery technology. Though that would greatly improve the viability of all electric cars in the market, it would have allowed other potential competition to leap ahead of Tesla, or at the least jump right up and start making vehicles at similar scale. What this Gigafactory announcement tells me is that Tesla is not going to jump into one technology and let other pass it by. They are effectively setting up a "coalition" of many battery producers to build this factory out together and profit together. In turn, they are also going to increase the potential of being first to the best effective technologies (note, though the text in the blog mentions lithium-ion, those words not mentioned in the pdf anywhere... only mentions "cell supplies"). Also, whatever they end up building, will automatically being the mainstream! This not only removes my concerns, but even more bullish on the company's growth over the next decade! Well played!

4. Solar power: Though this doesn't specifically call it out, we can almost assume that this means a huge contract for SolarCity! Probably similar what has been talked about for the SuperCharger network. Tesla puts up the initial cost; SolarCity does full maintenance... all for great rates! Just leading to closer connections between the companies... along with the Tesla battery packs for home power storage discussions.

5. Going after states that have shown resistance: I love how they are specifically including Texas in the final four. I'm sure there are appropriate reasons to include Texas, besides for the political ones, but none the less, this message is going to be well heard across the country from anyone that is willing to take couple million from unions to push away Tesla, when they can potentially benefit far more by accepting Tesla.

6. Proximity of locations: This still shows the Fremont location as the central hub. This tells me that either the MUNI (sp?) plant has the capability to build 500,000 vehicles per year, or they will expand in the region.

7. Growth commitment in the USA: Truly, they could have planned to put this factory anywhere in the world! Love their commitment to bringing back the strength, knowledge and work back into the US. Why can't everyone just see the true capitalistic success story that Tesla really is?

8. 70KWh/100KWh average packs: Based on the "Cell Output" of 35GWh/y @ 500k vehicle volume, that means an average of 70KWh pack. If we assume that the majority of these 500k vehicles will be the GenIII models with smaller packs, this leads me to think that we could be seeing 100KWh packs for the Model S/X soon. Using the "Pack Output" figure of 50GWh/y, this means a 100KWh pack average, which means that we could see an announcement of a much larger sized pack (125KWh? or more?). Gigidy-Gigidy... awww yeah! :biggrin:

9. Difference between "Cell Output" and "Pack Output"? I didn't understand what this means? What are they saying from this? I can assume some things, but would rather ask for more educated thoughts.

10. On a side note (not in this announcement), I do hope they can crank out the SuperChargers soon. I would like them to spend roughly $100m/year on this build out through 2016. Which roughly translates to over 300 installations per year (assuming $300k/location... not sure where, but this is what I recall as a cost on another thread). So that would mean roughly 1,000 SuperCharger locations world-wide by the time the GenIII vehicle launches. This would help destroy even the most aggressive estimates for sales!

I'm sure there are other things that we can come up with based on this announcement, but this message is getting long enough as is. Love to get everyone's input...

Regards,
HiTech
ps: In case anyone high up is reading, I would really love to work for Tesla!!!

 

[RobStark]

1) Many of the moderate bulls on Wall Street have an estimate of 300-400k units by 2020. Many bulls here on TMC have estimates of 700k-1M by 2020.
2) EV competitors become indirect collaborators. They encourage investment by suppliers in EV technology. The more EV options there are the more "normal" EVs become to the general public. I think Tesla has plans far greater than 500k units per year. Long term it needs a minimum 1M units per year to be a viable long term independent auto maker. No established OEM wants to rely on Tesla long term for powertrains. Powertrains are the core competency of automotive OEMs, it is what differentiates one company from another. Buying powertrains for a limited line for a limited time yes. But not long term for a large percentage of cars a company makes. Particularly if Tesla can only make 500k units. I think Tesla will diversify into energy storage/management. That is rather obvious. This and selling access to the supercharger network will not replace the profits from selling cars IMO. Gasoline retailers don't make the big bucks, it is the gasoline refiners that make the big bucks.
3) The partners are the Japanese. Panasonic maybe Sony and their Japanese suppliers. Probably not Samsung, LG, Bosch or the many American startups. Tesla is not trying to make the best battery in the world but one that is safe, cost effective, and meets the performance and durability goals that car customers expect. Others may make a better battery but doubtful they will be able to mass produce it in a mass produced car before Tesla has a response.
4) Yep
5) Texas and Arizona were always included in the rumor mill. Texas state legislature does not meet till next year and the decision on GF site will be made this year. Not sure a quid pro quo can be made.
6) Fremont has the capacity to build 500k units. Nummi is the name of the old GM-Toyota joint venture that previously owned the Fremont plant.
7) Transportation cost and commitment to being green(lower carbon foot print) is what put the GF in the USA. Elon has said Tesla is agnostic about country of origin for parts.
8) Probably, but no one can say with certainty.
9) GF will probably import cells from Panasonic of Japan to make battery packs. Eventually, there will be enough old packs coming in to be recycled. Then those will simply be recycled to create new packs. I guess Tesla will not count these as new cells. And Panasonic imports from Japan will probably be reduced to zero. But there may be a GF opening in Asia by then, probably in China that might need to import cells from Panasonic of Japan.
10) I think everybody would want more superchargers and reduce the deviations one would take vs an ICE car.

 

[Doug_G]

The Economist:

Tesla's gigafactory: Driving ahead | The Economist

ELON MUSK, the chief executive of Tesla Motors, has started a bidding war among four states in America’s south-west for the future home of a “gigafactory”. Due to start production in 2020, the giant factory will be the world’s largest battery-making facility, producing, at its peak, 500,000 lithium-ion packs, more than the entire world’s capacity today. That should be more than enough for Tesla’s car production; the excess will probably supply not only some of its carmaking competitors but also such power sources as backups for neighbourhood grids and cellphone towers.

Mr Musk—a man both admirers and critics alike say could sell refrigerators to Eskimos—is also a partner in SolarCity, a solar-energy venture also based in California, and a reliable and affordable backup system based around Tesla’s batteries could help smooth fluctuations from renewable power sources. But although there has been much excitement about its impact on green energy, Tesla’s gigafactory could be the critical turning point in making electric cars more competitive.

The real breakthrough could come by 2017 with the more mainstream Model E expected to carry a price tag of less than half of the Model S, which is priced at up to $110,000. Tesla is also beginning to market the Model S in China. Facing smog problems in many of its cities, including Beijing and Shanghai, the Chinese government has been pressing carmakers to go electric, with government forecasts calling for putting as many as 5m battery cars on the road over the next eight years. That would certainly need a gigafactory.