Tesla Gigafactory

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

Motor Trend Tesla Exclusive (PDF download), including a bit about the Gigafactory on page 50.

On page 30. Toyota VP and general manager Bill Day:
" It’s the time that it takes to
charge a vehicle, so we’re going to be charged from a normal outlet faster than Volt or, I think, anything else on the market."

LOL, all this focus on charging time is going to kill Toyota!

Anyway, I hope you don't get into any trouble for posting the entire magazine!?!

 

[Dynastar]

I don't have an exact quote, but at the annual meeting Elon said the gigafactory would have three times the expected output. If true that would explain the slow place of construction. Hopefully more details will be coming at the grand opening or sooner.

 

[xhawk101]

Really thinking about going to Gigafactory grand opening....with or without tickets to the event. In the hopes i could somehow get a ticket, but if not just to be there and see the place first hand. Maybe there will be an after party

 

[JER]

at the annual meeting Elon said the gigafactory would have three times the expected output

He said it could. Since this is coming from Captain Optimism, I wouldn't take it as a guarantee, but rather something that is not necessarily impossible.

The pace of construction is easy enough to explain: they're qualifying the design of the first cell production module before they build another one.

 

[Bobfitz1]

This latest news on Tesla's plans for the Gigafactory seem very in line with recent claims they will seek to greatly improve the "machine that builds the machines".

What I wonder hearing this is what the impact of Tesla being able to use this existing GF to produce enough battery packs for nearly 1.5 million cars in next few years? Doesn't that mean that the battery cost per Kwh is likely to fall even faster than they have previously predicted? Considering the huge capital expense of the gigafactory. That cost will now be spread over 3 times as many packs? I would think the cost of the factory must be a major part of battery and pack production Kwh cost. I think this is one more indicator of Tesla continuing to pull away from any competitors.

 

[Grendal]

This latest news on Tesla's plans for the Gigafactory seem very in line with recent claims they will seek to greatly improve the "machine that builds the machines".

What I wonder hearing this is what the impact of Tesla being able to use this existing GF to produce enough battery packs for nearly 1.5 million cars in next few years? Doesn't that mean that the battery cost per Kwh is likely to fall even faster than they have previously predicted? Considering the huge capital expense of the gigafactory. That cost will now be spread over 3 times as many packs? I would think the cost of the factory must be a major part of battery and pack production Kwh cost. I think this is one more indicator of Tesla continuing to pull away from any competitors.

It wouldn't be triple the car packs since they have increased Tesla Energy percentage. The output used to be 70%TA-30%TE and now it will be 50%-50%. You could easily say they intend to double (and a little extra) the car battery output. That's why they are saying 1 million car production by 2020.

I agree with your conclusion completely.

 

[AdamEKM]

Panasonic ‘gearing up for significant growth’ at the Tesla Gigafactory, will host a special hiring event next week

New-ish fly-over video included.

 

[doctoxics]

It wouldn't be triple the car packs since they have increased Tesla Energy percentage. The output used to be 70%TA-30%TE and now it will be 50%-50%. You could easily say they intend to double (and a little extra) the car battery output. That's why they are saying 1 million car production by 2020.

Trying to understand the cell/module plan for Gigafactory1? Will the 10700 NCA cell with silicon in the anode and perhaps other changes be the only cell made in Gigafactory1, and only for Model 3? If so, then three times 35 gwh would supply approximately 2 million Model 3 cars.

Then we have the suggestion that perhaps 50 % of Gigafactory1 will be for energy storage. Does this mean production of a different cell type (Panasonic makes energy storage cells in Japan) and what cell type (NCM)? Or is half of Gigafactory1 to be dedicated to assembly of energy storage packs from cells manufactured abroad? If only half of Gigafactory1 is for manufacture of Model 3 cells and packs, then three times 25 gwh would supply approximately 1.5 million Model 3 cars.

The first cells are to be made later this year; will these be the new cells for Model 3 prototypes? Wouldn't it be simpler and more efficient if Panasonic made just the cells for Model 3 in Gigafactory1?

 

[Grendal]

Trying to understand the cell/module plan for Gigafactory1? Will the 10700 NCA cell with silicon in the anode and perhaps other changes be the only cell made in Gigafactory1, and only for Model 3? If so, then three times 35 gwh would supply approximately 2 million Model 3 cars.

Then we have the suggestion that perhaps 50 % of Gigafactory1 will be for energy storage. Does this mean production of a different cell type (Panasonic makes energy storage cells in Japan) and what cell type (NCM)? Or is half of Gigafactory1 to be dedicated to assembly of energy storage packs from cells manufactured abroad? If only half of Gigafactory1 is for manufacture of Model 3 cells and packs, then three times 25 gwh would supply approximately 1.5 million Model 3 cars.

The first cells are to be made later this year; will these be the new cells for Model 3 prototypes? Wouldn't it be simpler and more efficient if Panasonic made just the cells for Model 3 in Gigafactory1?

We don't know if the 20700 sized cell will be the only type of cell used. Elon and J.B. has said that the increased size improves the battery. By inference then we can conclude that a general switch over to that size will be done for TE as well.

I expect that we will still see 18650's used in the Model S and Model X so that Tesla can continue to use the output from the Panasonic factories in Japan. Those factories might make the change over to the new size as well sometime in the future. Either way I expect that there will be a Model S and Model X pack that uses the new Model 3 batteries. I expect we will see those before the Model 3 hits production. I expect those packs to be an optional extra.

I would say it is likely that the only battery the gigafactory produces is the new 20700 cell. It will be the battery in the TE packs as well at some point.

 

[vgrinshpun]

My speculation is that 20700 cells that will be produced at the GF starting at the end of this year will be used in the new (100kWh ?) packs for MS and MX, while previous generation 18650 cells coming from Japan (as Tesla is obliged to continue buying them) will be installed in TE battery packs assembled at the GF.

As GF cell production ramps up by the time M3 is ready for production, the new 20700 based battery packs, after almost a year being used in customer's MX and MS will also be used in M3.

 

[doctoxics]

My speculation is that 20700 cells that will be produced at the GF starting at the end of this year will be used in the new (100kWh ?) packs for MS and MX, while previous generation 18650 cells coming from Japan (as Tesla is obliged to continue buying them) will be installed in TE battery packs assembled at the GF.

As GF cell production ramps up by the time M3 is ready for production, the new 20700 based battery packs, after almost a year being used in customer's MX and MS will also be used in M3.

But isn't the chemistry quite different for storage and auto packs? Does it make sense to be doing two different chemistries in Gigafactory1?

 

[vgrinshpun]

But isn't the chemistry quite different for storage and auto packs? Does it make sense to be doing two different chemistries in Gigafactory1?

Yes, the chemistry is different, but cells of either chemistry can be manufactured on the same equipment.

According to my theory above the 18650 cells for TE will be coming from the factories in Japan, and assembled into the packs at GF.

I estimate that Japanese factories have capacity to produce up to 10GWh of 18650 cells.

 

[wycolo]

On page 30. Toyota VP and general manager Bill Day:
" It’s the time that it takes to
charge a vehicle, so we’re going to be charged from a normal outlet faster than Volt or, I think, anything else on the market." [Oil4as . . ]

LOL x2!!

Reading thru all that blather I sense his point is that having only 22 mile range gives them a PR advantage by claiming it can reach full charge so much sooner than the Volt. Talk about 'baffle them with BS'. Aaargh.
--

 

[Vitold]

My speculation is that 20700 cells that will be produced at the GF starting at the end of this year will be used in the new (100kWh ?) packs for MS and MX, while previous generation 18650 cells coming from Japan (as Tesla is obliged to continue buying them) will be installed in TE battery packs assembled at the GF.

As GF cell production ramps up by the time M3 is ready for production, the new 20700 based battery packs, after almost a year being used in customer's MX and MS will also be used in M3.

I am with you with one exception - I think GF1 batteries will be used in software limited 60kWh (not high end range) models as it will allow Tesla to gather stats in real world usage w/o putting them under 1500 amp draw and would make software upgrades more cost effective for Tesla.

 

[JRP3]

I think GF1 batteries will be used in software limited 60kWh (not high end range) models as it will allow Tesla to gather stats in real world usage

I keep seeing this idea that Tesla would use customers as test subjects for batteries, it won't happen. There is nothing special in the "real world" that affects a battery differently than in a test car, and Tesla will have fully tested it's cells before they go in any vehicle.

 

[Curt Renz]

Panasonic to jump-start US battery cell output for Tesla: Nikkei Asian Review

 

[Cosmacelf]

Hey guys, fascinating article speculating (with good reason) about why the gigafactory redesign happened, why the Model 3 pack looks bigger than it should be, and one way to reduce pack costs.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/3983102-teslas-gigafactory-christmas-july

 

[techmaven]

Hey guys, fascinating article speculating (with good reason) about why the gigafactory redesign happened, why the Model 3 pack looks bigger than it should be, and one way to reduce pack costs.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/3983102-teslas-gigafactory-christmas-july

Way too much conjecture for my taste.

 

[palmer_md]

Way too much conjecture for my taste.

I saw "seekingalpha" and just ignored the source.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Dudes, if you don't have anything to add, don't add it. Yeah, seeking alpha is now a ghetto, but the author of this particular article is the real deal.