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Unfortunately the story sources are not disclosed, but it sounds like talks are in progress on Gigafactory #2... Tesla Courting Japanese Battery Suppliers For Possible 2nd Gigafactory | CleanTechnica

Hard to know if this accurate or made up. On one hand we know how often people just make stuff up and on the other we know Tesla had plans for more than one GF from the beginning. We also know that the 2nd GF can't be too far behind the first and has to be some place other than North America.
 
Hmm... I'd swear I read that the second GF would be in Europe, which makes a lot more sense to me than Japan.

Elon said not so long ago that they will have to build a (car) facotry in both Europe and Asia/China. It is not difficult to predict that each of these will have to be followed by a "GF". For all we know they are pushing for a GF in Europe as well.

What amazes me is rather that they should go to Japan rather than China?
 
Elon said not so long ago that they will have to build a (car) facotry in both Europe and Asia/China. It is not difficult to predict that each of these will have to be followed by a "GF". For all we know they are pushing for a GF in Europe as well.

What amazes me is rather that they should go to Japan rather than China?
Simple. Gigafactories are Tesla owned/operated. All the factories in China are Chinese owned/operated. I'm sure Elon is not foolish enough to outsource his next gigafactory to the Chinese.
 
I thought during that during the Q&A of the speech Elon gave for the first Japanese Model S deliveries, he said that eventually a second Gigafactory would make sense, and the most logical place would be China, but beyond that no work had been done on the matter. I searched around for a transcript of the speech, but I couldn't find one. Does anyone else remember this?
 
Simple. Gigafactories are Tesla owned/operated. All the factories in China are Chinese owned/operated. I'm sure Elon is not foolish enough to outsource his next gigafactory to the Chinese.

Westerns firms that set up auto factories in China by law are set up as joint ventures that must be at least 51% owned by the Chinese partner.

Don't know if Samsung's Chinese factories are JVs but doubt they are 100% owned/operated by Chinese. Then it would not be a Samsung factory but a supplier. Apple does that by choice not because it is required by Chinese law.
 
Westerns firms that set up auto factories in China by law are set up as joint ventures that must be at least 51% owned by the Chinese partner.

Most Chinese car manufacturers are state-owned, and the independent car manufactures needed to jump through hoops to get a license (mostly buying stakes in state-owned manufactures)
International car companies need to set up joint ventures with Chinese companies to avoid huge import taxes (special exceptions for Tesla/EVs)

Some examples:
Chery:
Initial production was technically illegal as the company was only awarded a passenger car production license in 2003,[7] and so while its first product rolled off the line in December 1999, it couldn't be legally sold until 2001.[5] In that year Chery solved the problem by piggybacking on a SAIC Motor license,[5] which it did until 2003.
BYD:
BYD Co Ltd created the wholly owned subsidiary BYD Auto a year after its 2002 acquisition of the Tsinchuan Automobile Company,[5] which may have been made solely to acquire the passenger car production license held by the purchased company.

China is working on new rules so that certain Chinese electronics/telecommunications companies can apply for a electric vehicle manufacturing license.
Companies eye electric car sector as China changes business rules,|WantChinaTimes.com


On Joint Ventures:
The lack of capital and technology, however, presents a major barrier to entry for late industrializing nations. Broadly speaking, there have been two types of responses to this problem. The most common strategy has been to allow auto-producing multinational automotive corporations (MNACs) like General Motors to invest in local production, which typically results in a domestic market dominated by MNAC subsidiaries at the expense of an independent local auto industry. Mexico, for example, pursued this type of foreign direct investment (FDI) policy in the 1960s, which ultimately led to the denationalization of its domestic automakers. They argue that the political economy of Mexico has been continually shaped by its dependent relationships with the world capitalist system, and the Mexican automotive industry by its dependent relationships with the world auto industry.

The second and more difficult strategy to execute has been to limit the entry of MNACs while at the same time acquiring foreign technology and fostering national automotive champions. This strategy can result in a successful indigenous auto industry, but has only been effectively pursued by Japan and Korea. These are the only two countries to produce globally competitive automakers in the post-war era. Scholars such as Johnson (1982) and Amsden (1989) suggest that the success of Japan
and Korea should largely be attributed to competent economic-planning bureaucracies that were able to skillfully manage domestic competition and encourage exports (i.e., the developmental state model).

China, however, is following a third path that on the surface appears to combine both of these strategies. One the one hand, the Chinese government has allowed MNACs to enter China and form joint ventures (JVs) because the country desperately needed capital, technology, and production expertise. On the other hand, the government is deeply committed to developing an indigenous, self-reliant auto industry. The experiences of countries like Mexico suggest that fledgling domestic automakers cannot survive in face of fierce competition by the established MNACs. Yet in China, several independent automakers are not only gaining market share at home, but are ambitiously expanding abroad, particularly in other emerging markets. This study explores the role of the state in the emergence of China’s indigenous auto industry.

Can the entrance of new domestic players be attributed to industrial policies targeted at the auto industry? Or rather, should the birth of indigenous industry be studied from the perspective of China’s broader economic reforms that are creating new linkages between the domestic economy and the global economy?
In sum, the Chinese government’s strategy to modernize the country’s state-owned automakers and create a globally competitive auto industry has had at best mixed results. On the one hand, China has become the world’s largest market for autos and second largest automobile producer. The industry has created hundreds of thousands of jobs in upstream and downstream industries, not to mention a lucrative source of new tax revenues. The automotive industry as a whole contributed about 7 percent of GDP in 2007, up from 2.5 percent in 1990. 31 On the other hand, the Chinese ‘Big 3’ – FAW, SAIC and Dongfeng – could hardly be considered national champions on par with Japan’s Toyota or Korea’s Hyundai.

Although these state-owned behemoths have learned how to produce cars more efficiently, they have not harnessed the ability to develop their own cutting edge platforms from concept to mass production. They remain dependent on their foreign partners for product development, marketing and branding of new vehicles. Efforts to produce their own line of cars have not been well-received by Chinese consumers, and none of the Big 3 has successfully penetrated foreign markets.

The government’s JV policy has run its course for both MNACs and their Chinese partners. The MNACs gained entrance to the Chinese market and some of them have made handsome profits, but they are all hampered by the continued 50 percent limitation on their ownership of JV enterprises. This limitation has at least two negative ramifications for the ability of MNACs to expand further in China. First, all decisions at the JVs must be consensual and can only be made via a time-consuming bargaining process with their Chinese partners, making any changes in strategic or operational direction slow and incremental. 32 Second, MNACs are still reluctant to share cutting edge technology, in large part because their Chinese partners are turning into direct competitors. Their Chinese partners ‘borrow’ technology and processes from MNACs, and they often hire away the best talent from the JVs into their independent divisions working on self-brands. For example, Chen Hong, once the general manager of SGM, was selected to become the president of SAIC in 2005. Similarly, Gao Weiming, previously a vice president at PATAC, was chosen to lead SAIC’s own technology center.

It is not surprising that MNACs are only willing to bring last generation technology to China, while their cutting edge technology development remains in their home countries. When the interests of MNACs and their Chinese partners diverge, trust breaks down and the relationship suffers. From the perspective of the Chinese SOEs, the MNACs continue to bring in business and help build economies of scale, but they refuse to share their latest technologies and product development know how. This lack of meaningful technology transfer frustrates Chinese executives and officials, but the JVs are still too lucrative to give up. 34 After all, why dump scarce resources and energy into a risky project like new vehicle development when the JV operations generate significant cash flow? The JV relationships ensnare the Chinese firms in dependent relationships and hamper the possibility for technological self-reliance. As one SAIC deputy managing director puts it, the JV model is a “dead road”.

Source: report with Chinese automotive manufacturing history: Developmental Strategies in a Global Economy: The Unexpected Emergence of China's Indigenous Auto Industry by Crystal Chang :: SSRN[1]
 
Simple. Gigafactories are Tesla owned/operated. All the factories in China are Chinese owned/operated. I'm sure Elon is not foolish enough to outsource his next gigafactory to the Chinese.

That makes some sense. From one side Tesla is not owner of GF and not even owner of all technology required for operating GF - cells are IP of Panasonic. So sharing ownership with Chinese partner shouldn't be a problem.
But from other side Tesla is super serious about quality and efficiency so it's very important for them to have the last word. Additionally Panasonic can opose to land GF in China. Lets not forget that they are something more than small investor.

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Unfortunately the story sources are not disclosed, but it sounds like talks are in progress on Gigafactory #2... Tesla Courting Japanese Battery Suppliers For Possible 2nd Gigafactory | CleanTechnica

Not surprising but very interesting. Around 2017 or not far later they should start works on GF2 and mabe even GF3. If they want to avoid gap in growth rate as soon as 1st GF reaches full production next ones needs to start production. And it takes time from "we need to do this" till production. It's not only building process, also finding partners, aquiring land, political things. So some of this should be done right now to be ready to build when there will be need.

However it's rather understandable that partners would like to wait: let's build one, see how it goes, then build another when we see 1st is doing well. But this approach would require gap in growth. As decision to build 2nd would be made when 1st is at full output and growth is limited in times it takes to build second.

Additionally 50% growth for a decade means 2 new even bigger GFs in 2023 at full output. If we take 1st GF as 1 in 2020 then 1+50%= 1 and a half GF in 2021 and >2GFs in 2022 and >3GFs in 2023. So it seems they are looking at that and searching for possibilites now for both Europe and Asia.

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I thought during that during the Q&A of the speech Elon gave for the first Japanese Model S deliveries, he said that eventually a second Gigafactory would make sense, and the most logical place would be China, but beyond that no work had been done on the matter. I searched around for a transcript of the speech, but I couldn't find one. Does anyone else remember this?

I don't. I remember something different. "Most logical for next car factory would be China". So maybe GF in Japan and car factory in China? Especially that landing GF in China would require to split influence between 3 main parties: Chinese partner, cells partner (Panasonic), and Tesla. This limits they decision making power greatly. While with car factory and batteries sourced from nearby Japan that could make more sense. Especially that with little bit of creative accounting if you sell to yourself (GF to car factory) you can limit lot of customs influence.
 
I'm not sure 2nd GF discussions make a lot of sense without also understanding the future car assembly plant picture. Maybe this topic deserves another thread (production capacity & GF). What's the current thinking on where the next plant will be built after Freemont is maxed out? Japan, Europe, both, China, Taiwan? Knowing Elon's fetish for efficiency I can't believe he would not place the next GF's near the next assembly plants.