Tesla HW 4.0?

[diplomat33]

Honestly, could Tesla really offer L5 FSD with the current hardware?

No, they can't. But that did not stop Tesla from trying to claim that it can anyway. Back in 2016, Tesla sold FSD as L5 even though they did not have L5. Tesla also claimed that the AP2 hardware was "FSD capable" even though it was not. Tesla is claiming that they can do L5 with just cameras because Elon believes that machine learning and AI can solve FSD with enough data even though every other company has achieved L4 only with a full suite of cameras, radar, lidar, HD maps and years of testing.

Companies like Waymo and Cruise have solved the city driving scenarios you mention but it took a full suite of cameras, radar, lidar, HD maps and years of writing the software and a lot of testing.

 

[diplomat33]

Tesla made the mistake of promoting and selling the final finished version of FSD right out of the gate before they were anywhere near ready. The description of FSD where you can summon your car driverless from the other side of the country, that's a totally finished L5. Tesla is a long way from that that. Since it has taken Tesla a lot longer to get there than expected, Tesla is now selling the intermediary steps like "feature complete with driver supervision". There are a bunch of intermediary steps on the path to full autonomy. Tesla should have started by selling the intermediary steps first and only selling "finished L5" when they actually had "finished L5".

@mspisars why did you disagree with my quote above?

You really think it was a good idea for Tesla to sell L5 FSD on AP2 in 2016 when they were years away from any form of FSD?

 

[mikes_fsd]

I think it is good for someone to push the boundaries... in the case of Tesla: state you will deliver something on a set of hardware to over half a million people...

We've been promised self-driving by the likes of Google for over a decade now, but because they never really stated a delivery (end) date, they can (and will unless made otherwise by competition) keep dragging it out indefinitely.

Waymo began as the Google Self-Driving Car Project in 2009.

My daughter is 10 years old (Note: Waymo is older than my daughter), I would REALLY love for her generation to focus on how to cure cancer or on exploring and settling our solar system, i.e. bigger things then worrying about how to drive.

We keep setting "self-driving" on a pedestal but really human driving should be regarded as menial or better yet dangerous.
It will NOT be Google or any gov't that makes this happen, it will be someone that looks at the situation with a radically different perspective.

I am squarely in the camp that think vision with radar (i.e. Tesla's current approach) is enough.

PS - on the subject of HW 4.0 -- there will always be newer hardware and that should be expected and anticipated.

 

[Mo City]

I also believe vision + radar is sufficient but Tesla's clearly don't have enough of either for Level 5.

 

[banned-66611]

Honestly, could Tesla really offer L5 FSD with the current hardware?

All depends how many fatalities they are willing to accept. Or rather how many their insurance is willing to accept.

 

[Watts_Up]

All depends how many fatalities they are willing to accept. Or rather how many their insurance is willing to accept.

I hope Boeing in not in the market for developing Self Driving cars....

 

[ramonneke]

Do you think Tesla will offer a free upgrade to HW 4.0 to those who buy the FSD upgrade now?

They should thus must, because if they do not they sold me something that they never will deliver thus I would like to have a refund.

They sold me a feature where:

1. I could summon my car from great distance and pick me up,
2. Drive me to the other side of Europe fully autonomous
3. Let me get out of the car, and then park.

That is what was part of the description when I bought the FSD feature in 2018.

So if HW3 is not capable of that then they will have to upgrade to HW4 or HW9 for that matter

 

[NotADoctor]

Better question, will those with HW 2.5, who paid for FSD years ago and still haven’t been upgraded, be eligible for HW 4.0? I’ve had my car for a year and half and still don’t have HW 3.0. Definitely won’t be paying for anything that’s not installed again. Fool me once...

 

[DanCar]

You really think it was a good idea for Tesla to sell L5 FSD on AP2 in 2016 when they were years away from any form of FSD?

If it caused them to make more money then some would argue it was a good idea. If they get sued for million(s), then most would say, no it wasn't a good idea. It seems to me that most are Tesla faithful and are not eager to start a class action lawsuit. Lets just call 2016 FSD and later a Tesla faithful tax.

 

[BlindPass]

If it caused them to make more money then some would argue it was a good idea. If they get sued for million(s), then most would say, no it wasn't a good idea. It seems to me that most are Tesla faithful and are not eager to start a class action lawsuit. Lets just call 2016 FSD and later a Tesla faithful tax.

You could apply this to build quality too.
Passing some of the burden of quality control to consumer, despite already having an overwhelmed service infrastructure, has helped make Tesla profitable. For most companies this is viewed as corporate greed, but with Tesla it’s for the greater good.

 

[R1Fast]

Better question, will those with HW 2.5, who paid for FSD years ago and still haven’t been upgraded, be eligible for HW 4.0? I’ve had my car for a year and half and still don’t have HW 3.0. Definitely won’t be paying for anything that’s not installed again. Fool me once...

Wondering the same. I got the EAP>FSD in the last fire sale but haven't had the 3.0 install done.

Could possibly go radio-silence to postpone as long as possible (end of next year). Maybe then could get grandfathered into 4.0. All assuming FSD/re-write isn't shipped and street-legal by the end of next year, and assuming Tesla would honor a 2.5 > 4.0 upgrade. What do you guys think?

 

[diplomat33]

Wondering the same. I got the EAP>FSD in the last fire sale but haven't had the 3.0 install done.

Could possibly go radio-silence to postpone as long as possible (end of next year). Maybe then could get grandfathered into 4.0. All assuming FSD/re-write isn't shipped and street-legal by the end of next year, and assuming Tesla would honor a 2.5 > 4.0 upgrade. What do you guys think?

I would recommend getting the HW3 upgrade now. I got mine months ago. You will need the HW3 computer for the new traffic control feature that is already out plus the new features coming later. HW4 is probably a couple years away and we have no idea what the upgrade process will be for it.

 

[R1Fast]

I would recommend getting the HW3 upgrade now. I got mine months ago. You will need the HW3 computer for the new traffic control feature that is already out plus the new features coming later. HW4 is probably a couple years away and we have no idea what the upgrade process will be for it.

Yeah good point. On Elon time HW4 is literally sometime in 2022 (if we're lucky) and who even knows at this point how upgrades will work. I'll just buy an extra TSLA share now with the expectation it will double in price by then and use it to fund the 4.0 upgrade.

 

[DDotJ]

What about sirens from emergency vehicles. I assume that those emergency vehicles
will require to send a radio signal to clear their path and avoid collisions with self driving cars.

I imagine they could just use the microphone to detect sirens.