Tesla in crisis?

[mimetz]

Seems that a reasonable argument could be made that the company is in crisis. Would like to hear your thoughts. Consider the following:

• missed quarterly earnings,
• declining quarterly sales,
• dramatically increasing Chinese competition,
• best selling Model Y long in the tooth,
• Model Two on hold,
• Cybertruck recall,
• largest layoff in company history,
• controversial CEO pay package in the headlines,
• share value declining,
• senior execs departing,
• "bet the company" robotaxi gamble.

Don't get me wrong, I love my Y and am rooting for Tesla. Not suggesting the company's going away but that the future is unclear, the company at a crossroads. Your thoughts?

SaveShare

 

[VT_EE]

Those of us who have held this stock for a while are used to this BS. I still firmly believe this company will be worth a fortune in 5 years. Most Wall Street analysts are clueless business majors who can't see beyond the next quarter and just don't understand how far ahead Tesla is in many aspects. Tesla's value is in AI, Energy, and autos. We all knew 2024 was going to suck for the stock due to Tesla's product cycle. Buy and hold this stock.

FSD V12.3 is the version that convinced me they will achieve true autonomous Level 4 driving in the next few years. It's 95% of the way there now IMO.

 

[dhrivnak]

As with many people I was quite disappointed in the Q1 P&D numbers. So, it got me to thinking how could Tesla increase demand other than dropping prices. I am looking at low-cost options. As we have found dropping prices hurts margins, tarnishes Tesla’s “luxury” image and hurts us owners by depressing resale values. If this is best in a separate thread, I am good with that, but would like to get your thoughts on these ideas:

• Fast track battery production in the USA – The Model 3 lost the tax credit this year, effectively raising prices 15-20%. Since the battery pack is identical to the Model Y, do what is needed to gain the tax credit giving the customer a significant 15-20% price reduction with little impact to margins.
• Add Vehicle to Home capability – Like Ford and Kia vehicle to home (20A 120V outlets or even a 40A NEMA 14-50) plug would be a great improvement in functionality allowing one to power their refrigerator and/or even a mini-split heat pump in the case of a disaster or power outage. I hear the onboard charger may already have this capability. If not, it can likely be added for a modest cost.
• Consider a hatchback design for the Model 3 – I was disappointed that the much larger Model 3 was able to carry considerably less than my tiny Volt. A hatch back design as we see with the Model S is very handy and useful for carrying larger items.
• Give FSD for a year – For nearly $0 cost to Tesla give a full year FSD to all buyers. After a year people can then order or get a subscription after they had a plenty of time to see what the package really has to offer and learn to depend on its functionality.
• SuperCharge Destination Charging – Partner with the National Park Service and/or State Parks to install Tesla destination chargers. We saw this in Canada and it is a great way to subtly advertise Tesla, to a crowd that is likely open to an EV. It also helps to combat range anxiety by showing the public that charging is available even in remote park destinations.
• Give Sales People Demo Cars – The sales people I have met are nice and friendly, but have almost no practical knowledge of EVs. Allowing the sales people to take a car home would help to educate them. It would be a nice perk for sales people, ensuring quality applicants, and it would greatly increase the demo fleet that could be sold at a discount without discounting new cars. Maybe even extend this to mechanics as well.
• Proceed with the Model 2 – Even if it needs to be a $30K car, let Wall Street and the majority of the world know there is a smaller car coming. Much of the world is used to cars smaller than the Model 3. With only 5 models to choose from Tesla can definitely benefit from more models.
• Add an option for a tow hitch on the Model 3 – Many Model 3 owners carry bikes or an occasional trailer. Like with the similar Y offer a hitch for $1000 as costs are likely less than $500.

 

[KJD]

Things have been going downhill ever since Elon bought Twitter. The robotaxi bet is a continuation of bad decision making.

 

[Rocket_man]

We don't really know what Tesla is going to be announce on 8 Aug. If they really have given up on the low cost car in favor of a Robotaxi, I think that would be a really bad move. Even if/when the technology is ready, Gov't regulations could kill it. Even local justification banning self-driving cars completely just like British Columbia banned cars if they are just capable of self driving did just a week ago did. Too much risk that is not in control of Tesla for robotaxis. I do think a literally $25K car is not going to happen. There has been a lot of inflation since that claim. So $30K is pretty acceptable in my opinion.

But Tesla is also an energy company and an AI company, there is a lot of value there. It was only a matter of time before other car makers caught up to Tesla. And even after mass producing cars for a decade, Tesla is still not a car company. I like my Model 3, but I don't love it. And I don't feel exclusive to Tesla. Especially if I can get access to superchargers with a different brand. If a better option comes along this could be my first and last Tesla.

I think Elon is better as a technology manager and maybe someone else can run the car business better.

 

[sublimejackman]

Seems that a reasonable argument could be made that the company is in crisis. Would like to hear your thoughts. Consider the following:

• missed quarterly earnings,
• declining quarterly sales,
• dramatically increasing Chinese competition,
• best selling Model Y long in the tooth,
• Model Two on hold,
• Cybertruck recall,
• largest layoff in company history,
• controversial CEO pay package in the headlines,
• share value declining,
• senior execs departing,
• "bet the company" robotaxi gamble.

Don't get me wrong, I love my Y and am rooting for Tesla. Not suggesting the company's going away but that the future is unclear, the company at a crossroads. Your thoughts?

SaveShare

Couldn't agree more.

In addition to all of this, having the FSD trial this month has shown how far away true self-driving really is. It's cool and all but nowhere near ready for me to trust it to take my kid to school or pick me up from the bar. Elon keeps talking about automation but we all know, even if FSD was ready for primetime by Aug 8th of this year, regulatory approval would still take years in many places. This isn't to mention underwriting the shifted libability off the drivers and to Tesla en masse.

I also agree that Tesla isn't going anywhere but yeah things are gonna be rough for the 3-5 years while they work out CT production, how to survive high interest rates, and how to monetize automation.

Things have been going downhill ever since Elon bought Twitter. The robotaxi bet is a continuation of bad decision making.

I think this is a factor in Tesla's decline. I really wish he would keep his mouth shut and stop alienating half the world but he is who he is. That being said, I still think the biggest issue at Tesla is they bet the farm on automation. Automation that's way, way, way more difficult than he imagined in 2016.

 

[lencap]

Perhaps a good place to start is the controversy over his pay package. Based upon the original terms Elon met the company hurdles and earned the full $54 billion compensation package. Whether that's a fair amount or not is open to debate, but regardless, he met all the targets. Now he finds that the package is voided by a court, and the status of that package is unclear. While having shareholders revote on the package may seem like a reasonable remedy to the court, let's put this in context. Back then it was unclear if Tesla would even survive as a company. Short sellers and others were highly negative on the company and shareholders were also unclear about future prospects. Since that time the stock went on to reach a market value of over $1 Trillion at the peak, and in context at the time paying Elon 5% of the market value of the company seemed at least defensible. Without him there would likely be no Tesla. Given where we are now, put yourself in his place. How could you not be distracted by having a court, or anyone else, say your effort isn't worth what you were paid? Furthermore, how can you recreate the shareholder ownership that existed at the time of the original pay package? Do today's owners really appreciate the dire situation that faced Elon when he stepped in to ensure Tesla would survive?

Given all of that, would anyone in that position still have the same passion and commitment to Tesla? Add in Twitter/X, SpaceX, the Boring Company, his very public social media presence and more, and imagine how you'd handle things. Yes, Tesla is facing some challenges, and the company is struggling to get past them, but their lead on EV design and development over the competition remains strong. Will FSD be delayed/fail? Will model refreshes spark new demand? Will the Model 2/Robotaxi future become more clear? All legit questions. Regardless of the answers, I find it hard to believe that despite everything Elon will just "walk away" or "give up". That doesn't seem to be his nature. Time will tell, but I wouldn't bet against him.

 

[Lance From Jax]

We don't really know what Tesla is going to be announce on 8 Aug. If they really have given up on the low cost car in favor of a Robotaxi, I think that would be a really bad move. Even if/when the technology is ready, Gov't regulations could kill it. Even local justification banning self-driving cars completely just like British Columbia banned cars if they are just capable of self driving did just a week ago did. Too much risk that is not in control of Tesla for robotaxis. I do think a literally $25K car is not going to happen. There has been a lot of inflation since that claim. So $30K is pretty acceptable in my opinion.

But Tesla is also an energy company and an AI company, there is a lot of value there. It was only a matter of time before other car makers caught up to Tesla. And even after mass producing cars for a decade, Tesla is still not a car company. I like my Model 3, but I don't love it. And I don't feel exclusive to Tesla. Especially if I can get access to superchargers with a different brand. If a better option comes along this could be my first and last Tesla.

I think Elon is better as a technology manager and maybe someone else can run the car business better.

Huh?

 

[Msicario]

Seems that a reasonable argument could be made that the company is in crisis. Would like to hear your thoughts. Consider the following:

• missed quarterly earnings,
• declining quarterly sales,
• dramatically increasing Chinese competition,
• best selling Model Y long in the tooth,
• Model Two on hold,
• Cybertruck recall,
• largest layoff in company history,
• controversial CEO pay package in the headlines,
• share value declining,
• senior execs departing,
• "bet the company" robotaxi gamble.

Don't get me wrong, I love my Y and am rooting for Tesla. Not suggesting the company's going away but that the future is unclear, the company at a crossroads. Your thoughts?

SaveShare

No worries, company is in good hands; Elon always finds a way to make money; Even if it means selling Y’s lower than the Camry, as well as the other models

SpaceX open for commercial & public rides

 

[mimetz]

As with many people I was quite disappointed in the Q1 P&D numbers. So, it got me to thinking how could Tesla increase demand other than dropping prices. I am looking at low-cost options. As we have found dropping prices hurts margins, tarnishes Tesla’s “luxury” image and hurts us owners by depressing resale values. If this is best in a separate thread, I am good with that, but would like to get your thoughts on these ideas:

• Fast track battery production in the USA – The Model 3 lost the tax credit this year, effectively raising prices 15-20%. Since the battery pack is identical to the Model Y, do what is needed to gain the tax credit giving the customer a significant 15-20% price reduction with little impact to margins.
• Add Vehicle to Home capability – Like Ford and Kia vehicle to home (20A 120V outlets or even a 40A NEMA 14-50) plug would be a great improvement in functionality allowing one to power their refrigerator and/or even a mini-split heat pump in the case of a disaster or power outage. I hear the onboard charger may already have this capability. If not, it can likely be added for a modest cost.
• Consider a hatchback design for the Model 3 – I was disappointed that the much larger Model 3 was able to carry considerably less than my tiny Volt. A hatch back design as we see with the Model S is very handy and useful for carrying larger items.
• Give FSD for a year – For nearly $0 cost to Tesla give a full year FSD to all buyers. After a year people can then order or get a subscription after they had a plenty of time to see what the package really has to offer and learn to depend on its functionality.
• SuperCharge Destination Charging – Partner with the National Park Service and/or State Parks to install Tesla destination chargers. We saw this in Canada and it is a great way to subtly advertise Tesla, to a crowd that is likely open to an EV. It also helps to combat range anxiety by showing the public that charging is available even in remote park destinations.
• Give Sales People Demo Cars – The sales people I have met are nice and friendly, but have almost no practical knowledge of EVs. Allowing the sales people to take a car home would help to educate them. It would be a nice perk for sales people, ensuring quality applicants, and it would greatly increase the demo fleet that could be sold at a discount without discounting new cars. Maybe even extend this to mechanics as well.
• Proceed with the Model 2 – Even if it needs to be a $30K car, let Wall Street and the majority of the world know there is a smaller car coming. Much of the world is used to cars smaller than the Model 3. With only 5 models to choose from Tesla can definitely benefit from more models.
• Add an option for a tow hitch on the Model 3 – Many Model 3 owners carry bikes or an occasional trailer. Like with the similar Y offer a hitch for $1000 as costs are likely less than $500.

Interesting ideas, esp US battery production for the M3, anything to bring the price down improves sales.

We don't really know what Tesla is going to be announce on 8 Aug. If they really have given up on the low cost car in favor of a Robotaxi, I think that would be a really bad move. Even if/when the technology is ready, Gov't regulations could kill it. Even local justification banning self-driving cars completely just like British Columbia banned cars if they are just capable of self driving did just a week ago did. Too much risk that is not in control of Tesla for robotaxis. I do think a literally $25K car is not going to happen. There has been a lot of inflation since that claim. So $30K is pretty acceptable in my opinion.

But Tesla is also an energy company and an AI company, there is a lot of value there. It was only a matter of time before other car makers caught up to Tesla. And even after mass producing cars for a decade, Tesla is still not a car company. I like my Model 3, but I don't love it. And I don't feel exclusive to Tesla. Especially if I can get access to superchargers with a different brand. If a better option comes along this could be my first and last Tesla.

I think Elon is better as a technology manager and maybe someone else can run the car business better.

How much revenue does Tesla get from AI, energy, or robots for that matter? Lot of future potential but not much yet.

 

[mimetz]

Seems that a reasonable argument could be made that the company is in crisis. Would like to hear your thoughts. Consider the following:

• missed quarterly earnings,
• declining quarterly sales,
• dramatically increasing Chinese competition,
• best selling Model Y long in the tooth,
• Model Two on hold,
• Cybertruck recall,
• largest layoff in company history,
• controversial CEO pay package in the headlines,
• share value declining,
• senior execs departing,
• "bet the company" robotaxi gamble.

Don't get me wrong, I love my Y and am rooting for Tesla. Not suggesting the company's going away but that the future is unclear, the company at a crossroads. Your thoughts?

SaveShare

BTW, want to thank you all for this thoughtful discussion. I tried to have this conversation on Reddit but it went sideways fast and the mods took it down.

 

[dachshund]

Elon seems to have a massive ego and will take the company wherever he wants. Wanting full automation is right on par with the state of technology right now, so I'm not the least bit surprised he wants the robotaxi. Hasn't he claimed that we'll all be safer if everyone is using automated cars?

In 2024 it doesn't seem like a good idea to ditch the low-cost model 3 for a robotaxi. He must imagine there's a market for more robotaxi vehicles. They're pretty controversial in San Francisco.

 

[Cheburashka]

Things have been going downhill ever since Elon bought Twitter. The robotaxi bet is a continuation of bad decision making.

This 100%. Elons in the news cycle all the time for all the wrong reasons. X is a massive distraction.

However, maybe the current abysmal performance is enough to throw Elon back in to beast mode and begin kicking everyone's ass at Tesla.

I remember in 2017ish when we bought our S, Tesla was seriously on the brink of bankruptcy and Elon was 100% focused on fixing it. We need that Elon back.

 

[Cheburashka]

Elon seems to have a massive ego and will take the company wherever he wants. Wanting full automation is right on par with the state of technology right now, so I'm not the least bit surprised he wants the robotaxi. Hasn't he claimed that we'll all be safer if everyone is using automated cars?

In 2024 it doesn't seem like a good idea to ditch the low-cost model 3 for a robotaxi. He must imagine there's a market for more robotaxi vehicles. They're pretty controversial in San Francisco.

Even if robotaxis would be incredibly profitable, the problem is that he's been promising some form of robotaxi for the last 6 years and progress has been painfully slow. Wasn't the coast to coast handsfree drive supposed to happen in 2018? I agree it would be a bad idea to bet the company's future on this.

 

[sublimejackman]

Even if robotaxis would be incredibly profitable, the problem is that he's been promising some form of robotaxi for the last 6 years and progress has been painfully slow. Wasn't the coast to coast handsfree drive supposed to happen in 2018? I agree it would be a bad idea to bet the company's future on this.

Yeah, even after just two drives with FSD during this 30 day trial period, it's clear that it's still years away from being something that could even be considered by regulators or underwriters for unsupervised use (don't get me wrong, super impressive what they can do with cameras but not something I even remotely trust at this point).

The ego investment by Elon is the current driving force IMO. Same reason why we got a half-baked, hard/expensive to make cybertruck.

Also, one thing people seem to miss is that this robotaxi announcement confirms what many of us have suspected for a very long time: that HW3 will never be capable of making you money as a robotaxi while you work/sleep, it will never drop you off at work and then pick your partner and take them somewhere, and it will never take you home from happy hour after you've had a few too many... HW3 will always require "supervision"

 

[Rocket_man]

Elon seems to have a massive ego and will take the company wherever he wants. Wanting full automation is right on par with the state of technology right now, so I'm not the least bit surprised he wants the robotaxi. Hasn't he claimed that we'll all be safer if everyone is using automated cars?

In 2024 it doesn't seem like a good idea to ditch the low-cost model 3 for a robotaxi. He must imagine there's a market for more robotaxi vehicles. They're pretty controversial in San Francisco.

The problem is that Tesla is not his company any longer after he took it public. His responsibility is to the shareholders. Now he may be a large share holder but could be removed by the board if there were enough votes to do so. He may firmly believe Robotaxi is the way to maximize shareholders value, but he doesn't own the company anymore.

 

[bdwalters]

Yeah, even after just two drives with FSD during this 30 day trial period, it's clear that it's still years away from being something that could even be considered by regulators or underwriters for unsupervised use (don't get me wrong, super impressive what they can do with cameras but not something I even remotely trust at this point).

The ego investment by Elon is the current driving force IMO. Same reason why we got a half-baked, hard/expensive to make cybertruck.

Also, one thing people seem to miss is that this robotaxi announcement confirms what many of us have suspected for a very long time: that HW3 will never be capable of making you money as a robotaxi while you work/sleep, it will never drop you off at work and then pick your partner and take them somewhere, and it will never take you home from happy hour after you've had a few too many... HW3 will always require "supervision"

How does that confirm this?

 

[sublimejackman]

How does that confirm this?

Cause then the millions of Model 3s and Model Ys already on the road would be the "robotaxi". Otherwise, why would he would have to unveil something new and that doesn't exist in the market today? This is, ostensibly, why they don't allow lease buyouts on the M3/MY, cause they were going to become the Tesla owned robotaxi fleet. "It would be stupid not to buy a Tesla" - "It'll make you thousands a month while you're working"

Unless this is some sort rouse and he's gonna be like "sike, all the HW3 cars on the road are the robotaxi fleet and we are removing the supervision requirement from FSD today".

Which, based on my experience with FSD these past few weeks, would be by far the most insane thing any tech company has ever done.

The most likely answer is that he unveils a modified MY with no steering wheel and HW4 (or something greater than HW4).

The first nail in the HW3 coffin was the release of HW4 (with dramatically improved cameras that physically don't fit on a HW2/HW3 vehicle) and this announcement will likely be the final nail.

TBH, as someone who had HW2 and now has HW3, I expected this. There was no way 1.2 MP BW camera's were up to the task and just making them color really didn't improve things nearly as much as it needed to be. I wouldn't be surprised to learn the that 5MP HW4 cameras are also too low res and too easily blinded.

 

[KelvinMace]

Seems that a reasonable argument could be made that the company is in crisis. Would like to hear your thoughts. Consider the following:

• missed quarterly earnings,
• declining quarterly sales,
• dramatically increasing Chinese competition,
• best selling Model Y long in the tooth,
• Model Two on hold,
• Cybertruck recall,
• largest layoff in company history,
• controversial CEO pay package in the headlines,
• share value declining,
• senior execs departing,
• "bet the company" robotaxi gamble.

Don't get me wrong, I love my Y and am rooting for Tesla. Not suggesting the company's going away but that the future is unclear, the company at a crossroads. Your thoughts?

SaveShare

You forgot erratic behavior by the CEO , his abuse of drugs, and his obsession with Twitter (which he wasted $44 billion to buy) to the point of neglecting Tesla.

 

[MD70]

The problem is that Tesla is not his company any longer after he took it public. His responsibility is to the shareholders. Now he may be a large share holder but could be removed by the board if there were enough votes to do so. He may firmly believe Robotaxi is the way to maximize shareholders value, but he doesn't own the company anymore.

He has learnt from what happened at one of his previous companies where the board removed him. So he has ensured board is full of yes men and so will not do anything.