jhm
Well-Known Member
I agree. Electricity is heavily domestic energy and is becoming increasingly localized with solar and in some places wind. National security issues are less pressing when local energy is sufficient.
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Tesla Investor's General Macroeconomic / Market Discussion
- Thread starter FluxCap
- Start date
I agree. Electricity is heavily domestic energy and is becoming increasingly localized with solar and in some places wind. National security issues are less pressing when local energy is sufficient.
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
ACEA says Passenger car registrations up +7.0% on average over first two months throughout Europe: press release
BTW Carlos Ghosn re-elected President of ACEA for 2015.
Could only be positive for EV future...
BTW Carlos Ghosn re-elected President of ACEA for 2015.
Could only be positive for EV future...
Fed-a-palooza March 2015 continues today as the market prepares to digest tomorrow's FOMC forecast and Chair press conference:
The FOMC release will be posted here at 2pm EST, and the market will likely move sharply immediately afterwards as the algos/HFT's digest the language and fight each other to move the indices up or down. I expect TSLA will be affected by this as well temporarily, up or down.
The FOMC release will be posted here at 2pm EST, and the market will likely move sharply immediately afterwards as the algos/HFT's digest the language and fight each other to move the indices up or down. I expect TSLA will be affected by this as well temporarily, up or down.
Good call; with the NASDAQ down to 4,908 after lunch, it leaps to over 5,000 after the announcement, the settling a bit to close up 0.92%. Still, Tesla outperformed the market today, rising over 3%.
sundaymorning
Active Member
Yep. The Feds may have scared a lot of investors awhile back, but this recent movementonly indicates what I've been thinking as the likely scenario: FEDs cannot raise rates with Europe doing so poorly. We'll see how the market reacts overall tomorrow, but for now, every index is higher. We may be entering a new period of bullishness.
sundaymorning
Active Member
Interesting re: today's jobs data and oil:
"Of the 140,214 job cuts announced in the first quarter, 47,610 were directly attributed to falling oil prices."
2015 March Job Cut Report: 34% of Q1 Cuts Due To Oil Prices | Challenger, Gray Christmas, Inc.
"Of the 140,214 job cuts announced in the first quarter, 47,610 were directly attributed to falling oil prices."
2015 March Job Cut Report: 34% of Q1 Cuts Due To Oil Prices | Challenger, Gray Christmas, Inc.
sundaymorning
Active Member
It's going to be hard for the Feds to raise interest rates in June. Jobs creation down by 50% compared to estimates.
Thank you for holding us updated on the maco levelIt's not very well covered in the norwegian news.
You are most welcome -- sorry I don't post as much as I used to on this but please do check the first post in this thread for daily news!
Yep, seems there is almost is no way June is the hike date, I think market has that at about a 5% chance right now. Honestly, given global currency manipulation by nearly every modern central bank on the planet and massive corporate leverage in the oil sector and others, I don't see how they can raise rates anytime in the near future without sending us into Depression. I think they know this but will not say it. I could of course be wrong.
sundaymorning
Active Member
You're on point. To me, the first indication of a hike will come from how the European economy performs.
Keep your eyes on the UK elections. Campaign season just opened (they're SO lucky! Campaigning is allowed only for four weeks prior to an election!), and it is incredibly unapparent what its outcome will be: continued Conservative (aka Tory); Labor; or if a coalition will be needed for the first time in a queen's age. Err, coon's age. There are strong currents and countercurrents in England right now over that country's future in the EU, so it is an important election for all - US as well as the rest of Europe.
Dollar rally slowdown
WSJ article, Dollar Sputters After Rally
Highlights:
Many investors are bullish on the dollar long term, but consider the biggest gains over.
Slight cooling of US economy, as evidenced by the weaker than expected job report, might delay rate hike to the end of 2015. The Labor Department reported 126,000 new jobs, against expectations of 248,000.
Brightening EU outlook puts downward pressure on the dollar.
A weaker dollar might contain downward pressure on oil prices.
The expected likelihood of a rate rise in September dropped to 28%, according to the futures market.
There are expectations of Dollar/Euro parity by the end of 2015.
The ECB boosted region growth forecast to 1.5%, from 1%.
Looks good to me.
WSJ article, Dollar Sputters After Rally
Highlights:
Many investors are bullish on the dollar long term, but consider the biggest gains over.
Slight cooling of US economy, as evidenced by the weaker than expected job report, might delay rate hike to the end of 2015. The Labor Department reported 126,000 new jobs, against expectations of 248,000.
Brightening EU outlook puts downward pressure on the dollar.
A weaker dollar might contain downward pressure on oil prices.
The expected likelihood of a rate rise in September dropped to 28%, according to the futures market.
There are expectations of Dollar/Euro parity by the end of 2015.
The ECB boosted region growth forecast to 1.5%, from 1%.
Looks good to me.
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
I'm hoping for something dramatic there. I've bought some AA as a long-term investment in the transition from steel to aluminum in the car industry, but it's been underperforming ever since (which is the story of most of my non-TSLA direct investments).
Minutes from the latest FOMC policy meeting will be released at 2pm, and as always when this happens, the market may lurch significantly one way or another in short order if the bots pick up on any surprising wording.
Minutes will appear on the page here. And bots will digest them fast and trade based on pre-programmed word searches.
Could affect TSLA as we move towards the close, up or down.
Minutes will appear on the page here. And bots will digest them fast and trade based on pre-programmed word searches.
Could affect TSLA as we move towards the close, up or down.
CALGARYARSENAL
Member
I would like to bring up exchange rates and their effect on Tesla's margin. By February 11 (the day of the quarterly report), European cars were already estimated to be delivered in Q2, so any further changes in NOK or EUR will not affect Q1 revenue or margin. However, Tesla warned that if the Dollar strengthened further after February 11, it would effect margins. I am not quite sure how. Is it because of purchasing battery cells from Panasonic?
There is a discussion thread on the subject: FX impact potential/scenario
I think strong $ puts downward pressure on sp due to its impact on revenues from overseas, your table with comparative pricing shows at least 10% loss. There is some offset of this effect due to paying for the cells in Yen. Once GF is online my understanding is that the batteries will be paid in $ and Tesla might need to start hedging.
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