Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Tesla Investor's General Macroeconomic / Market Discussion

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
I was thinking I should keep out of this discussion as I am German, but what you saying is just not true. Germany is one of the countries paying more into the EU than receiving, so money is going from Germany to Southern Europe. I am not saying everything is great and we couldn´t help other states more, but please stick to the facts. Here are some numbers from 2014, when the net money flow from Germany into the EU was 15 billion (sorry, in German): Nettozahler und Nettoempfänger in der EU | bpb

Excuse me, but the very first paragraph in the above link states that these numbers are not the whole picture.

Germany is paying to the EU not to be "nice", but because these payments come back as an improved export market for the country as a whole. So the effect of these payments is bigger than their sum (it is called synergy) - with _lots_ of money flowing back into Germany, in exchange for exported goods which keep the country's industry going.

And don't take my word for it, look instead for example at:
List of sovereign states by current account balance - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
 
No, OK, I did my research. Yes, the insane "financial" stuff (much of which they are well rid of, it doesn't help the average Briton at all) dwarfs the manufacturing industry.
I am curious, what makes you think that the financial industry doesn't help the average Briton? A very large percentage of government income comes from taxation on the financial industry profits.
 
I am curious, what makes you think that the financial industry doesn't help the average Briton? A very large percentage of government income comes from taxation on the financial industry profits.
Well, that doesn't mean much (in order to explain why I would to explain the entire theory of government finance for a government which prints its own money, which I do not want to do right now.)

But you do have a point in that the financial industry employs an enormous number of people inside the UK (from receptionists and janitors on up), and *that* helps the average Briton.
 
VW Group 2016 H1 Profit Portfolio

488x-1.png

VW’s Year on the Edge and How the Carmaker Is Clawing Back


IF Tesla takes majority of Audi's and Porsche's market share Then it takes down VW Group.

VW CEO says he understands the danger and will introduce dozens of BEVs over the next decade to prevent that but we shall see.
 
This is interesting.

Four Simple Ideas for Trading a Possible Trump Presidency

Longer term from my IR (international relations) hat the foreign policy will be horrendous and even more divisive among the general public. Even the "traditional" foreign policy gurus are apprehensive, not just because they're pro NATO. For Tesla and any US based corporation with substantial foreign markets a stronger dollar is never the way to go. Those in Congress who lament a weak dollar are clearly ignorant of international economics 0.1. We really cannot afford amateurs in politics! Just because the pros are bad too doesn't mean we need to go through, once again, a one-term presidency while the beginner is learning the job at the expense of the rest of us, even though we are responsible for the electoral outcome.

Rant of an old man who's sometimes happy to be old since he won't be alive after the ultimate catastrophe.
 
The hopeful outcome of Trump winning imo, is that he likely will let Pence and others govern and we could see congress finally address things like needed major infrastructure spending. Which they aren't doing now due to gridlock and the GOP not wanting to help stimulate the economy in a positive way under Obama/dems. When republicans are in charge (e.g., they control WH), they suddenly care a lot less about reducing spending and that kind of thing.
 
For Tesla and any US based corporation with substantial foreign markets a stronger dollar is never the way to go. Those in Congress who lament a weak dollar are clearly ignorant of international economics 0.1.

Those that support a weak dollar are ignorant of Macro Econ 101.

Congress, in theory, is not there to primarily protect the interest of US exporters.

A strong dollar is good for the United States as a whole. It is good for US savors and generating capital for growing an economy. It is good for all US consumers. It is good for a high standard of living. Weak currencies encourage people to spend everything and save nothing. And we certainly don't need more of that.

Basing your economy on regular devaluations/weak currency to grow exports is a third world policy.It encourages your citizens to put money in secret Swiss banking accounts. It was one of many policies that kinda sorta worked for Japan for a while until they stagnated for over 20 years for a variety of reasons.
 
"For Tesla and any US based corporation with substantial foreign markets a stronger dollar is never the way to go." Thanks for reminding me of the dangers of never saying "never."

I guess you've figured out I've drunk the kool-aid of Nobel laureate Paul Krugman and of my teacher in college many decades ago in Macro 101. (Truthfully, I never even saw Paul Samuelson at MIT who was the instructor of record, and he won his Nobel later for giving economics a more mathematical orientation. Got only a B in the course taught exclusively by a Ph.D. candidate from Harvard.) I have a Ph.D. field in international economics from a contemporary of Charles Kindelberger whom I did meet at MIT but only for advising about a potential application for their new Ph.D. program in political science. I can't remember the name of my Ph.D. examiner in intl econ We called him "Smokey the Bear" because absent the fur he was a doppelganger. He gave me great grades but I screwed up in the orals. (I was rejected for doctoral work at MIT in political science but could have pursued an M.S. in mechanical engineering.)

There are many comparisons to be made with the United States and third world countries. There are many others where, of course, we do much better. My wife is from Thailand, where the King who is widely revered is about to be succeeded by a rank amateur playboy completely at the mercy of a military dictatorship.

I fully agree with you about just printing money to finance things. We have one blessing as do the British and others as Krugman points out ad nauseam: we have the benefit of our own currency. There is another advantage, although I’m fuzzy on the numbers, as to who holds our debt. Hopefully, like the Japanese, the bulk of it is in U.S. citizen’s hands or the Federal Reserve. When we hold our own debt, as Krugman constantly reminds us that debt is owed to another U.S. entity. Furthermore, given the size of our economy the Chinese holdings are not hostage to China, as some argue, but China can’t withdraw them catastrophically without losing big time.

Now maybe you can set me straight again but arguing from first principles of logic: it may matter what you spend on with the money you print. And here again I would agree with you about Congress and exporters.

If you spend what will ultimately cost two to three billion dollars (estimated by Joe Stieglitz, another Nobel laureate) on an unnecessary war, say in Iraq, then block or blunt any effort to stimulate an infrastructure program at home, while the president drank the kool-aid of reducing deficit spending at first, and then hold back spending, we look like a third world country when we throw tax exemptions to the rich (hedge fund managers), the banks, the likes of GM (although many suppliers were helped), the stock market (quantitative easing), and more, then we do look like a third world country. (By the way, third world is not the politically correct term, but I use it too. And of course we do know other “advanced” countries have similarly skewed distributions of wealth, so we aren’t alone. Although many, like the Scandinavians, spend their 20 percentage points higher taxes less on the military to finance vastly superior investments in people. I remember in Denmark college students are paid to go to college, but my memory is failing now that I’m 80.)

My wife just interrupted me to eat breakfast but first told me about a dream she had. “It was about a car which had a trunk in front, but I knew it was a dream because it was at our first home which had a leaky thatch roof my mother replaced every two years with branches collected from the forest.”

Gotta go for many alimentary reasons, but will address the political stances of each major candidate pivoting on a previous post by Turing. Despite my progressive bent I have to admit Trump is talking up some good ideas.

Later.
 
Gotta go for many alimentary reasons, but will address the political stances of each major candidate pivoting on a previous post by Turing. Despite my progressive bent I have to admit Trump is talking up some good ideas.

Later

Strong Deutsche Mark
Strong Pound Sterling
Strong Dollar

World class economies with high standards of living are not built with weak currencies.

Rich corporations with poor "middle class" is not a policy to follow.
 
World class economies with high standards of living are not built with weak currencies.

Rich corporations with poor "middle class" is not a policy to follow.

I totally agree with the last sentence. That is why I voted for Bernie instead of Donald Trump who took advantage of our stress with quite different policy signals.

In the first sentence quoted here I think strong currencies are the result of policies which create a strong middle class, not the reverse. Further, we have known since Aristotle that strong middle classes are correlated with stable political systems as was true in his massive examination of all the constitutions available in his time. I'm for a more boring political system here, but we might agree the constant tit for tat and inactivity on real problems is getting to be an old song.

You cite the strong German and Dutch currencies, did you know Bismarck initiated something like Medicare and Social Security in the 1870s? Albeit he did so just to forestall the Social Democrats, but people benefitted from such political competition, unlike our "Third World" Congress. I don't know what the Danish currency is doing but they certainly benefit from being independent of the Euro despite pegging it at a fixed rate, if I remember correctly. The strong position of sterling may only be due to Brexit and most analysts I trust are unsure about the future if, and when, the UK finally gives notice starting the two-year clock. Britain's economy is surely doing well but that may be because it has its own currency and so is insulated from the tight money policies in Europe which Krugman and others think is a drag.

I think it is quite common for cause and effect to be confused. I could be right, you could be right. Where we disagree is which is cause. I don't think even such a strong monetarist as Milton Friedman was as consistent as people think. But then I credit this to Krugman and so am a broken recorder.

Keep up the good work. You make me think more than most and we seldom disagree. That is very important because old farts like me need as much exercise of the brain as we can get. It is perhaps unfortunate for you and others on TMC that physical infirmity is compensated for by mental activity which may or may not be intact in my old age. I cannot judge. Younger and abler, in all senses, you are of immense help.

Thanks for your patience.
 
Reference is made to an earlier post where I quoted Tom Wicker dumping on his colleagues when he said the refusal to weigh the truth of a claim in print means we "reporters are like stenographers with amnesia."

Admittedly from a progressive source it appears the New York Times (that grey old lady, as she is termed in the trade) is using the word "lie" in talking about Trump. My hope is we see more of this and more of the same for all politicians!

New York Times decides to call a lie a lie, and its Trump coverage may never be the same

Admittedly given our massive shift to the right in the last decade, the NY Times seems to many a "liberal" institution. I disagree.

One of my colleagues who is a nationally known scholar has demonstrated the establishment media constantly defer to our president on foreign policy questions until someone like Walter Cronkite after a visit to Vietnam declared the administration's position factually inaccurate. Then the truth comes out, ex post. In more recent memory the mainstream media's support for Bush's war on Iraq bought Dick Cheney's cool aid with one exception: Knight-Ridder. I was greatly blessed reading the Sacramento Bee which based the exposures of the lies of the administration then based on its subscription to Knight-Ridder. The Bee, itself, of course, highlighted what Cheney wanted us to know.

I'm not sure my colleague would agree, today, in the widespread skepticism regarding Obama's foreign policy. Perhaps its because he's black, more likely its because the white male dominant media prefers violent headlines to a wimpy foreign policy based on moderation. We shall see in the coming election what people want but I have my doubts that will be an accurate measure of public will. I just received the 86 page or so voting instructions manual provided by my county or the state. I'm a political scientist who has led the local effort in a successful proposition campaign but this is too much information for me and I often have to consult with a colleague on how to vote on some measures. With the cloud of information deluging us how can citizens make an informed decision? I can't. But it is beyond strange the two main political parties have managed to nominate the most disliked candidates in recent memory.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: neroden
Here is a somewhat helpful Q&A from Scientific American. I skimmed a few but avoided the rest. Hillary's stuff seemed most detailed while Trump's were of all things, "politically correct" yet vague. Jill Stein was somewhat detailed, strong on climate change and energy, and they really dumped on Gary Johnson by noting he did not respond.

You can skip to the Qs you're more interested in, but I didn't bother to give it a careful read as you can tell.

What Do the Presidential Candidates Know about Science?
 
Also, even more interesting, but less relevant to Tesla unless you're trying to understand why Elon works so hard, is a nice piece on leisure time and work by the Atlantic.

Why Do So Many Rich People Work So Much?

In Elon's case he's trying to save the planet. I don't think that was Carnegie's goal. Edison probably puttered in some laboratory for most of his life, but when do Elon, Bezos, Page, et allii go camping together?
 
  • Informative
Reactions: GoTslaGo
Also, even more interesting, but less relevant to Tesla unless you're trying to understand why Elon works so hard, is a nice piece on leisure time and work by the Atlantic.

Why Do So Many Rich People Work So Much?

In Elon's case he's trying to save the planet. I don't think that was Carnegie's goal. Edison probably puttered in some laboratory for most of his life, but when do Elon, Bezos, Page, et allii go camping together?

They don't camp together, they're working out together: ;)

http://www.economist.com/news/busin...re-trying-turn-themselves-jocks-revenge-nerds
 
when do Elon, Bezos, Page, et allii go camping together?

Camping trip just ended a week or so ago...its called Burning Man. Almost all these folks go on a regular basis, or at least once.

Google’s Larry Page and Sergey Brin have been coming to Burning Man consistently for well over a decade. The first Google doodle was an homage to The Man. Amazon’s Jeff Bezos and Mark Zuckerberg have made the trek. Drew Houston, co-founder of Dropbox camped out this year and Alexis Ohanian from Reddit was there as well.

Elon Musk Is Right, Burning Man Is Silicon Valley

(the story is not from this year, but you get the idea...they do go camping together every September)
 
  • Informative
Reactions: Intl Professor
Those that support a weak dollar are ignorant of Macro Econ 101.
Completely backwards. Those that support a strong dollar are ignorant of Macro Econ 101, 102, 103, and the whole rest of the field. As well as hundreds of years of econometric evidence.

I will not discuss this further since you are quite determined to maintain your ignorance and will obviously not listen.

Congress, in theory, is not there to primarily protect the interest of US exporters.
Protecting US exporters is what created the US economic boom for... well... the entire history of US economic booms.
 
In the first sentence quoted here I think strong currencies are the result of policies which create a strong middle class, not the reverse.

This is correct. If you have a weak currency, and it then causes your economy to get better for everyone, *your currency will then naturally get stronger*. This is OK; this is natural rebalancing. As a government, you want to counteract this *a little*, but you can't fight it too much without causing trouble. (Among other things, if you counteract it too much, it hurts your *trading partners* and this eventually backfires on you.)

Trying to make the currency stronger through manipulation is always a mistake, however. It's also ineffective, as it can be counteracted by Soros or any other hedge fund guy.
 
Protecting US exporters is what created the US economic boom for... well... the entire history of US economic booms.

If I remember my graduate work in U.S. diplomatic history correctly, one of the reasons for our "revolution" was the founders were tired of having to take sides in the interminable wars between England and France which hurt foreign trade. That's why we staunchly have fought from the beginning for freedom to navigate the seas. We wanted to trade with both sides.

I put revolution in quotes because it wasn't anything like what happened in France at about the same time we got operating. In fact, as Secretary of State one of the big problems Jefferson had to solve was whether we should recognize the new government. Ours was a revolt for home rule. Sadly, we are still not as civilized on racial grounds and relations between the central and state governments which require a real revolution in our thinking. A lot of the founders engaged in democratic rhetoric justifying their position but there were clear economic benefits. They well recognised the benefits of slave or indentured labor which persisted way too long. They were clear about the dangers of democracy, factions, and parties, as we are seeing play out again big time this year.
 
Last edited: