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Tesla Investor's General Macroeconomic / Market Discussion
- Thread starter FluxCap
- Start date
The Blue Owl
Endangerous Herbivore
Maybe. I posted the quotes while I was reading the article. I see that no other majors (WSJ, NYT, USA Today) went to print with this, it's only the Post.
But the larger conversation is revealing. They were clearly aware that the Russians were meddling all over the world, including the U.S. elections, in order to support "the populists". The remark sounds like it was maybe made in jest, but to me it sounds like "ha, ha, only serious".
PDF transcript here.
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Its about time someone investigated the Clintons & their "foundation" for giving away US Uranium capacity in exchange for millions.
As reported by the trusted & beloved NYT's
https://www.nytimes.com/2015/04/24/...ssed-for-control-of-uranium-company.html?_r=0
Russia scandal? Inside the Obama-Clinton uranium deal
Oh, it's been investigated, all right. Read, for example, Did Clinton help Russia obtain uranium for donations? Nope
And "...giving away US uranium capacity..." is about as close to the truth as evil is to good.
The whole imbroglio fits in a hummingbird's nest.
Ian Telfer a "mining magnate"? Hahaha. If Ian's a magnate, my name is Warren Buffet. Last seen, Ian was having his way in a Copacabana striptease parloroops. I wonder how I know that?
And "...giving away US uranium capacity..." is about as close to the truth as evil is to good.
The whole imbroglio fits in a hummingbird's nest.
Ian Telfer a "mining magnate"? Hahaha. If Ian's a magnate, my name is Warren Buffet. Last seen, Ian was having his way in a Copacabana striptease parloroops. I wonder how I know that?
The Blue Owl
Endangerous Herbivore
You better hope there are no "tapes" of you watching (or worse!), or you'll be impeached, and who knows who they will appoint as the new TMC moderator, and then I'll really sell everything and put it all into gold. There's only so much uncertainty a simple herbivore can take.
NYT's article is very in-depth & thorough, do you feel its completely inaccurate?
https://www.nytimes.com/2015/04/24/...ssed-for-control-of-uranium-company.html?_r=0
https://www.nytimes.com/2015/04/24/...ssed-for-control-of-uranium-company.html?_r=0
Here's the charter, full prosecutory powers and broad authority (assuming fully resourced)
Trump response (reports Trump blindsided by this, had only 30min heads up; He and Atty General at WH interviewing FBI candidates)
Re: the Post publish of Ryan-McCarthy
Reports are they have audio recording of the entire transcript
The bond markets (often the most accurate predictor of long term market behaviors) are pricing in a long difficult road ahead for equity markets as this will be effectively disruptive for the foreseeable future (they continue yield curve flattening).
That aligns with my view; further I think there is extreme risk of other market shaking events in our future.
As before, my advice is to stay long core TSLA common, unleveraged, and positioned for a multi year roller coaster ride.
Dramamine prescribed (I have other in mind)
Trump response (reports Trump blindsided by this, had only 30min heads up; He and Atty General at WH interviewing FBI candidates)
Re: the Post publish of Ryan-McCarthy
Reports are they have audio recording of the entire transcript
The bond markets (often the most accurate predictor of long term market behaviors) are pricing in a long difficult road ahead for equity markets as this will be effectively disruptive for the foreseeable future (they continue yield curve flattening).
That aligns with my view; further I think there is extreme risk of other market shaking events in our future.
As before, my advice is to stay long core TSLA common, unleveraged, and positioned for a multi year roller coaster ride.
Dramamine prescribed (I have other in mind)
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Great post, Ken, and agreed.
The question many are asking tonight is whether Trump will be so bold as to repeat the Saturday Night Massacre and attempt to order the firing of Rosenstein, Mueller and/or anyone who could implicate him or his associates. Assuming Trump isn't so foolish as to follow Nixon's script, the investigation will continue. Yet, a lot of politicians in this town who have towed their party line and defended any and all Trump transgressions to date are looking themselves in the mirror tonight and asking whether they want to hypothetically go down with the ship, or cover their own behinds during this investigation.
By measures other than this historic scandal, it does seem the economy is doing rather well outside DC, and normally this would suggest a bullish portfolio posture, especially if your investment horizon is measured in years and not months/weeks/days. But I do think we are in for some choppy seas, and this ain't over yet.
The question many are asking tonight is whether Trump will be so bold as to repeat the Saturday Night Massacre and attempt to order the firing of Rosenstein, Mueller and/or anyone who could implicate him or his associates. Assuming Trump isn't so foolish as to follow Nixon's script, the investigation will continue. Yet, a lot of politicians in this town who have towed their party line and defended any and all Trump transgressions to date are looking themselves in the mirror tonight and asking whether they want to hypothetically go down with the ship, or cover their own behinds during this investigation.
WaPo said:
By measures other than this historic scandal, it does seem the economy is doing rather well outside DC, and normally this would suggest a bullish portfolio posture, especially if your investment horizon is measured in years and not months/weeks/days. But I do think we are in for some choppy seas, and this ain't over yet.
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For those not familiar, Bob Mueller III Special Prosecutor is widely considered uncorruptable and beyond reproach. Impeccable and rigorous.
There's also a strong relation to our local interest area of which you may not be aware.
He was called in to be 'Settlement Master' for both the VW Dieselgate and Takata airbag cases, where he oversaw fairness of awards etc.
Also worked many years with, and good friends with Comey
This and other is going to be market disruptive for many many months
There's also a strong relation to our local interest area of which you may not be aware.
He was called in to be 'Settlement Master' for both the VW Dieselgate and Takata airbag cases, where he oversaw fairness of awards etc.
Also worked many years with, and good friends with Comey
This and other is going to be market disruptive for many many months
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Tesla stock should be transcendent of chop.
The sail is powered up and the team is focused.
Elon scares off the risk averse.
This boat should be good.
Am guessing the incremental cost of the model 3 with all those robots is right at $20K, so Elon needs to drive volume to cover the capital.
The price has to come down as the rebates expire, just to put the car in reach. From a public good will perspective, it makes a lot of sense to phase price reductions in exactly corresponding to the rebate expiration - maybe on the 2WD base model. This does not train the customer into bad behaviors.
Goodwill makes stocks transcendent.
Small price to pay. There will be option space for high margin cars. And no lost margin. Just customers who would have otherwise bought ICE.
The sail is powered up and the team is focused.
Elon scares off the risk averse.
This boat should be good.
Am guessing the incremental cost of the model 3 with all those robots is right at $20K, so Elon needs to drive volume to cover the capital.
The price has to come down as the rebates expire, just to put the car in reach. From a public good will perspective, it makes a lot of sense to phase price reductions in exactly corresponding to the rebate expiration - maybe on the 2WD base model. This does not train the customer into bad behaviors.
Goodwill makes stocks transcendent.
Small price to pay. There will be option space for high margin cars. And no lost margin. Just customers who would have otherwise bought ICE.
Here we go, I was wondering what is there to do for a Trump's fanboy nowadays except to discuss "crooked Clintons".
BTW, you should hold your man accountable: didn't he promised to lock her up?
Give it a rest, man. Sometimes silence is golden.
Taking a moment for a personal aside because this is an historic moment no matter what your political leanings are:
Trump tweeted an exasperated "I am not a crook" series of tweets this morning:
The sitting president doesn't even know how to spell the title of the person appointed to investigate his administration. Between his earlier "I thought it would be easier" comments and his frustration with having to stretch himself so far outside his mental comfort zones, it really does appear that he just doesn't want this job after all in his heart of hearts. I think the pull of a luxury retirement at Mar-a-Lago is very strong right now and he's probably wishing he stayed there, where he can pontificate and tweet to his heart's content. If senior Republican leadership can convince him it would be better to pass the torch to Pence gracefully rather than endure a protracted fall from grace dragging the US through the mud for months, we'd probably all be better off. Regardless of my disagreements with Pence on policy, I cannot fault his intelligence and skill as a government executive. And I doubt Pence would intentionally or unintentionally give code-word national secrets to foreign spies to try and impress them.
The coming days, weeks and probably months will be difficult for our country, but this investigation is absolutely necessary. If there is no wrongdoing, Mueller will exonerate them. If there is wrongdoing, Mueller will find it. He's about as impeccable as they come.
As for the markets? It has been my observation that political risks tend to be ignored for extended periods of time by the market, until they aren't. And when they aren't, moves don't seem to happen gradually, but rapidly and in a herd mentality. They are often overblown, but calling tops and bottoms is extremely difficult at times like this. I agree with Ken that a leveraged position is a dangerous one at this point, and more traditional and conservative investment strategies such as diversification and long-term holding are warranted.
/endaside
P.S. <3 u Lump
Apparently Pence agrees with that potential-
anyone believe this same-day timing to be a coinqydink?
Pence creates PAC ahead of 2018, 2020 elections
p.s - Mike has his own problems
Top Democrat sent letter to Mike Pence in November warning of Michael Flynn's Turkey lobbying
"In an interview with Fox News on Thursday night, Vice President Mike Pence said he was not aware either and that he only first heard about it as reports surfaced Thursday that Flynn had registered as a foreign agent with the Justice Department earlier this week."
If we are following the Nixon-era I suppose we should begin to evaluate the potential for a President Ryan, just not the squeaky clean fictional one.
true-
though with the Post reported audio recording of Ryan we may have to move to Orrin Hatch, with outside chance of T-Rex
hold your stocks and pull up your socks boys!
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MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
The Scope of the Special Counsel Appointment Is Totally Inadequate – emptywheel
I’m agnostic about the selection of Mueller. He has the benefit of credibility among FBI Agents, so will be able to make up for some of what was lost with Jim Comey’s firing. He will be regarded by those who care about such things as non-partisan. With Jim Comey, Mueller stood up to Dick Cheney on Stellar Wind in 2004 (though I think in reality his willingness to withstand Cheney’s demands has been overstated).
But Mueller has helped cover up certain things in the past, most notably with the Amerithrax investigation.
My bigger concern is with the scope, which I believe to be totally inadequate.
Here’s how the order describes the scope:
Rod Rosenstein just appointed former FBI Director (and, before that, US Attorney) Robert Mueller as Special Counsel to take over the investigation into Trump and his associates.
I’m agnostic about the selection of Mueller. He has the benefit of credibility among FBI Agents, so will be able to make up for some of what was lost with Jim Comey’s firing. He will be regarded by those who care about such things as non-partisan. With Jim Comey, Mueller stood up to Dick Cheney on Stellar Wind in 2004 (though I think in reality his willingness to withstand Cheney’s demands has been overstated).
But Mueller has helped cover up certain things in the past, most notably with the Amerithrax investigation.
My bigger concern is with the scope, which I believe to be totally inadequate.
Here’s how the order describes the scope:
(b) The Special Counsel is authorized to conduct the investigation confirmed by then-FBI Director James 8. Comey in testimony before the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence on March 20, 2017, including:
(i) any links and/or coordination between the Russian government and individuals associated with the campaign of President Donald Trump; and
(ii) any matters that arose or may arise directly from the investigation; and
(iii) any other matters within the scope of 28 C.F.R. § 600.4(a).
As I read this, it covers just the investigation into ties between the Russian government and people associated with Trump’s campaign. Presumably, that includes Mike Flynn, Paul Manafort, and Carter Page, among others.
But there are other aspects of the great swamp that is the Trump and Russia orbit that might not be included here. For example, would Manafort’s corrupt deals with Ukrainian oligarchs be included? Would Flynn’s discussions with Turkish officials, or Rudy Giuliani’s attempt to excuse Turkey’s violation of Iran sanctions? Would the garden variety money laundering on behalf of non-governmental Russian mobbed up businessmen be included, something that might affect Manafort, Jared Kushner, or Trump himself?
And remember there are at least two other aspects of the Russian hacking investigation. Back in February, Reuters reported that San Francisco’s office was investigating Guccifer 2.0 and Pittsburgh was investigating the actual hackers. Somewhere (San Francisco would be the most logical spot), they’re presumably investigating whoever it is that has been dumping NSA’s hacking tools everywhere. I’ve learned that that geography has either changed, or there are other aspects tied to those issues in other corners of the country.
Plus, there’s the Wikileaks investigation in EDVA, the same district where the Mueller-led investigation might reside, but a distinct investigation.
Any one of those investigations might present strings that can be pulled, any one of which might lead to the unraveling of the central question: did Trump’s associates coordinate with the Russian government to become President. Unless Mueller can serve to protect those other corners of the investigation from Trump’s tampering, it would be easy to shut down any of them as they become productive.
Yet, as far as I understand the scope of this, Mueller will only oversee the central question, leaving those disparate ends susceptible to Trump’s tampering.
Update: In its statement on the appointment, ACLU raises concerns about whether this would include the investigation into Trump’s attempt to obstruct this investigation.
Update: WaPo’s Philip Rucker reminds that Mueller is law firm partners with Jamie Gorelick, who has been representing both Ivanka and Kushner in this issue.
Update: Mueller is quitting WilmberHale to take this gig. He’s also taking two WilmerHale former FBI people with him. Still, that’s a close tie to the lawyer of someone representing key subjects of this investigation.
Update: One addition to the ACLU concern about investigating the Comey firing. In the most directly relevant precedent, the Plame investigation, when Pat Fitzgerald expanded his investigation from the leak of Plame’s identity to the obstruction of the investigation, he asked for approval to do so from the Acting Attorney General overseeing the investigation — in that case, Jim Comey.
The Acting Attorney General in this case is Rod Rosenstein. So if Mueller were as diligent as Fitzgerald was, he would have to ask the guy who provided the fig leaf for Comey’s firing to approve the expansion of the investigation to cover his own fig leaf.
IMO this is unprecedented because trump has alienated so many people that if he's impeached at least 40-60% of the electorate will be relieved. So I believe if it looks like impeachment is likely that will have a net positive effect on the market.
Supporting that theory the Dow S&P and the Nasdaq are all so far green today.
I’m agnostic about the selection of Mueller. He has the benefit of credibility among FBI Agents, so will be able to make up for some of what was lost with Jim Comey’s firing. He will be regarded by those who care about such things as non-partisan. With Jim Comey, Mueller stood up to Dick Cheney on Stellar Wind in 2004 (though I think in reality his willingness to withstand Cheney’s demands has been overstated).
But Mueller has helped cover up certain things in the past, most notably with the Amerithrax investigation.
My bigger concern is with the scope, which I believe to be totally inadequate.
Here’s how the order describes the scope:
Rod Rosenstein just appointed former FBI Director (and, before that, US Attorney) Robert Mueller as Special Counsel to take over the investigation into Trump and his associates.
I’m agnostic about the selection of Mueller. He has the benefit of credibility among FBI Agents, so will be able to make up for some of what was lost with Jim Comey’s firing. He will be regarded by those who care about such things as non-partisan. With Jim Comey, Mueller stood up to Dick Cheney on Stellar Wind in 2004 (though I think in reality his willingness to withstand Cheney’s demands has been overstated).
But Mueller has helped cover up certain things in the past, most notably with the Amerithrax investigation.
My bigger concern is with the scope, which I believe to be totally inadequate.
Here’s how the order describes the scope:
(b) The Special Counsel is authorized to conduct the investigation confirmed by then-FBI Director James 8. Comey in testimony before the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence on March 20, 2017, including:
(i) any links and/or coordination between the Russian government and individuals associated with the campaign of President Donald Trump; and
(ii) any matters that arose or may arise directly from the investigation; and
(iii) any other matters within the scope of 28 C.F.R. § 600.4(a).
As I read this, it covers just the investigation into ties between the Russian government and people associated with Trump’s campaign. Presumably, that includes Mike Flynn, Paul Manafort, and Carter Page, among others.
But there are other aspects of the great swamp that is the Trump and Russia orbit that might not be included here. For example, would Manafort’s corrupt deals with Ukrainian oligarchs be included? Would Flynn’s discussions with Turkish officials, or Rudy Giuliani’s attempt to excuse Turkey’s violation of Iran sanctions? Would the garden variety money laundering on behalf of non-governmental Russian mobbed up businessmen be included, something that might affect Manafort, Jared Kushner, or Trump himself?
And remember there are at least two other aspects of the Russian hacking investigation. Back in February, Reuters reported that San Francisco’s office was investigating Guccifer 2.0 and Pittsburgh was investigating the actual hackers. Somewhere (San Francisco would be the most logical spot), they’re presumably investigating whoever it is that has been dumping NSA’s hacking tools everywhere. I’ve learned that that geography has either changed, or there are other aspects tied to those issues in other corners of the country.
Plus, there’s the Wikileaks investigation in EDVA, the same district where the Mueller-led investigation might reside, but a distinct investigation.
Any one of those investigations might present strings that can be pulled, any one of which might lead to the unraveling of the central question: did Trump’s associates coordinate with the Russian government to become President. Unless Mueller can serve to protect those other corners of the investigation from Trump’s tampering, it would be easy to shut down any of them as they become productive.
Yet, as far as I understand the scope of this, Mueller will only oversee the central question, leaving those disparate ends susceptible to Trump’s tampering.
Update: In its statement on the appointment, ACLU raises concerns about whether this would include the investigation into Trump’s attempt to obstruct this investigation.
Update: WaPo’s Philip Rucker reminds that Mueller is law firm partners with Jamie Gorelick, who has been representing both Ivanka and Kushner in this issue.
Update: Mueller is quitting WilmberHale to take this gig. He’s also taking two WilmerHale former FBI people with him. Still, that’s a close tie to the lawyer of someone representing key subjects of this investigation.
Update: One addition to the ACLU concern about investigating the Comey firing. In the most directly relevant precedent, the Plame investigation, when Pat Fitzgerald expanded his investigation from the leak of Plame’s identity to the obstruction of the investigation, he asked for approval to do so from the Acting Attorney General overseeing the investigation — in that case, Jim Comey.
The Acting Attorney General in this case is Rod Rosenstein. So if Mueller were as diligent as Fitzgerald was, he would have to ask the guy who provided the fig leaf for Comey’s firing to approve the expansion of the investigation to cover his own fig leaf.
IMO this is unprecedented because trump has alienated so many people that if he's impeached at least 40-60% of the electorate will be relieved. So I believe if it looks like impeachment is likely that will have a net positive effect on the market.
Supporting that theory the Dow S&P and the Nasdaq are all so far green today.
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