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Interesting manipulation of Gold and Silver:
Aren’t currencies and metals supposed to move in the same direction? Usually, however, we have one making new highs and the other making new lows. What makes it even more bizarre is that at 7:07 PM Thursday night, after normal market hours had ended, someone put in a large sell order in Silver as it was trading at 16.06, near the high of new session. In such a thinly traded market, Silver wiped out a lot of stop-loss orders as it plummeted to 14.34. A couple of minutes later it recovered much of that decline, but the technical damage was done. That maneuver took Silver to its lowest level since February 2016. Where are the regulators when you need them? One wonders how long it will take for someone to recognize the manipulation that is going in in the metals markets. Or maybe they do. But for traders, it is as if we are stuck in retrograde mode where things happen contrary to the norm.

The “mistake” that led to a large selloff in Gold the prior week, and then the selloff in Silver this week, is more shock than absentmindedness. Shock that it happened, and more shock that nothing is reported about it.

This is a highly combustible time, when surprising actions and reactions are prone to unfold, as the world witnessed last week with North Korea’s ballistic missile test. The USA military establishment, in reaction, went ballistic, demanding a “military option” plan. And strangely enough, aren’t these the type of unsettling world threats that are supposed to cause Gold and Silver to soar upwards? But instead, the metals fell to new cycle lows as traders and investors seem more focused on the Fed’s plan.
 
Interesting manipulation of Gold and Silver:
Aren’t currencies and metals supposed to move in the same direction? Usually, however, we have one making new highs and the other making new lows. What makes it even more bizarre is that at 7:07 PM Thursday night, after normal market hours had ended, someone put in a large sell order in Silver as it was trading at 16.06, near the high of new session. In such a thinly traded market, Silver wiped out a lot of stop-loss orders as it plummeted to 14.34. A couple of minutes later it recovered much of that decline, but the technical damage was done. That maneuver took Silver to its lowest level since February 2016. Where are the regulators when you need them? One wonders how long it will take for someone to recognize the manipulation that is going in in the metals markets. Or maybe they do. But for traders, it is as if we are stuck in retrograde mode where things happen contrary to the norm.

The “mistake” that led to a large selloff in Gold the prior week, and then the selloff in Silver this week, is more shock than absentmindedness. Shock that it happened, and more shock that nothing is reported about it.

This is a highly combustible time, when surprising actions and reactions are prone to unfold, as the world witnessed last week with North Korea’s ballistic missile test. The USA military establishment, in reaction, went ballistic, demanding a “military option” plan. And strangely enough, aren’t these the type of unsettling world threats that are supposed to cause Gold and Silver to soar upwards? But instead, the metals fell to new cycle lows as traders and investors seem more focused on the Fed’s plan.
I demand a full blown government investigation into this shocking manipulation, its very concerning.
 
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I don't watch silver closely.

I subscribe for a letter, that covers the stock market, and some commodities, including gold and silver.

I've not paid very close attention to what he says about G&S yet.

I might start keeping an eye on gold and silver in the future if I have the time, because, I think that could be a decent hedge for our TSLA bets.
 
You claimed silver was manipulated but never mentioned where you got the info originally, many G&S newsletters like to peddle all kinds of conspiracy theory's...very entertaining.

Probably won't get very far with a SEC investigation since they don't oversee Gold & Silver trading :rolleyes:.
 
Been very busy on a project with barely time to keep up with the posts and some PM replies- Got a window, so thought I would update macro view from my perspective.

Summary: I continue to place current macro (and it's effect on TSLA) at an Orange-Hard Watch Alert (scale of Yellow-Caution, Orange-Hard 6 months Watch, Red-Pullback imminent, GTFO- Go to Mars). Again in my own vernacular, Orange means stay Fully invested without significant leverage. Remember as I've said before, these are not meant to predict short term, but 6-18+ month outlook to judge how to position relative- Common, Option leverage, Margin leverage etc. And to provide visibility on macro risk for your longer term investment strategy.

Yield Curve:
Review- Yield Curve spread indicates what the massive Bond market predicts about the economy and the relative investments over time against Equity return alternatives. I use several, but a good representative is the 10-year minus 2-year Bond spread. A flat or inverted yield curve indicates the Bond market sees red coming in the economy and so in Equities (recessionary) and so values longer term Bonds higher than shorter term Bonds (driving higher demand for longer term, thereby lowering the comparative yield of longer term). It's one of the best correlative measures of coming recessionary periods- generally months ahead (6-12). A strong Yield curve would be 2+, an Inverted curve less than 0. One of my Orange level criteria is a Yield curve in downtrend and less than 1. This places us on a Hard Watch to see if the trend continues- However even 0-1 curve is not particularly healthy and indicates a topping of Equities- coming roll-over or transition. And is often predictive of highly volatile Equity markets that don't necessarily decline, but increase in volatile moves. This is because a roll-over of markets begins with large Sector rotations of Equities.

Here is a historical chart of Yield Curve showing it's predictive power of recessionary periods:
yield curve historical- .jpg


Here is the current 10 year trend against the last Recession- we continue the general downtrend from 2011:
yield curve 10 years.jpg


We've had a recent reprieve moving from .83 to .98 due to the recent Fed statements about slowing Interest rate hikes (but proceeding with monetary tightening on their historically high balance sheet) [shadow trace showing a local improvement over the last 20 month]
yield curve 30 day trace.jpg


Again, this area of 0-1 (from a downtrend) should predict increased Equity volatile in the coming months due largely to Sector Rotations and reduced P/E leverage. Remember when you leverage your investment on a stock like TSLA- you are both amplifying your own capital (and risk) on top of the market's amplification already. TSLA as a high growth disruptive - get's a large portion of it's Equity value by the market leveraging future revenue to present day. As such, more susceptible to market moods of the future in general and as the market rolls over, get's assigned less value on those projections (relatively). We've already seen this recently as TSLA received the benefit of Technology sector rotation (along with it's own positives) driving it to $380 - Rotations out of this drove much of it's downdraft to $310. This is the volatility typical of macro induced market uncertainty - starting to gyrate with those changing expectations.

Here is a guide for how those Sectors begin to rotate at these transition periods:
sector rotations.jpg

We're going to see more of this even as TSLA rises overall due to it's own earned valuation events. This will be true even if we don't enter a recession, but oscillate with market corrections. I advise against articles and reports that attempt your dismissal of these intermediate risks (like Yield curve not inverting means full steam ahead)- They generally don't have your best interests in mind IMO.

There are many other data markers of course- and positives as well (I agree TSLA itself will help drive Consumer costs down providing it's own macro positive feedback)- Advising full investment here- even with these macro cautions.

Here are a couple of other markers for your consideration to put our current macro position in historical perspective (and the associated risk looking out over the coming months):

Buybacks-Dividend.jpg



The line below represents the average standard deviation — distance from a historical norm — of how much the stock markets are worth as a percentage of GDP (All G-7 Countries). This year's high of 1.30 in May is approaching recent peaks of 1.34 in May 2015, 1.61 in May 2007, just before the financial crisis, and 1.45 in August 2000, during the collapse of the tech bubble. The preliminary read for June was 1.29
world market valuation deviation from GNP.jpg


The chart is similar to one Warren Buffett said he watches as a key measure of valuation:
d0b8d641ecafb21a2716204b2e19c763.png

ee6a20ec20f548791444932a0bdb2a6e.png


Finally - Here's a harmonic that Investors may not be considering. Tuning to the market, the macros, Tesla, etc. isn't easy. But it's important to keep all of these 2nd order harmonics in play with your decisions about how much leverage over what time period. As a technology disruptor- How fast will this disruption happen and how do historical trends inform us?
pace of tech absorption.jpg


It's going to happen faster than you may expect.
Hence my statements regarding- not being under invested or attempting to cross-trade on macro cycles.
Many more elements, but this is again why I continue to advise an investment that tunes TSLA to the macro harmonic frequencies -
I'm currently oversubscribed in Common by 3X; But without leverage to ride the next 5 years.
I like Common with some DITM LEAPS when appropriate...

All the best TMC Investors!
 
You claimed silver was manipulated but never mentioned where you got the info originally, many G&S newsletters like to peddle all kinds of conspiracy theory's...very entertaining.

Probably won't get very far with a SEC investigation since they don't oversee Gold & Silver trading :rolleyes:.
I thought it might be of general interest. I didn't think proof is necessary in this case because I don't believe that anyone here was using that information to invest. But here is another source on the gold trade I mentioned.

Gold plunges; is fat finger to blame?

Gold sank like a stone at 9 a.m. in London after a huge spike in volume in New York futures that traders said was probably the result of a “fat finger,” or erroneous order.

Trade shot up to 1.8 million ounces of gold in just a minute, a level not reached even with the surprise election of U.S. President Donald Trump or Britain’s vote to leave the European Union.


I didn't say that the sec regulates commodities. I mentioned the sec in the context of the stock market. It seems like you are going out of your way to attempt to criticize me, but you did that in a way that doesn't make sense.

I don't understand what happiness you could possibly derive from criticism. I sincerely wish you the best of luck in all of your endeavors.
 
I thought it might be of general interest. I didn't think proof is necessary in this case because I don't believe that anyone here was using that information to invest. But here is another source on the gold trade I mentioned.

Gold plunges; is fat finger to blame?

Gold sank like a stone at 9 a.m. in London after a huge spike in volume in New York futures that traders said was probably the result of a “fat finger,” or erroneous order.

Trade shot up to 1.8 million ounces of gold in just a minute, a level not reached even with the surprise election of U.S. President Donald Trump or Britain’s vote to leave the European Union.


I didn't say that the sec regulates commodities. I mentioned the sec in the context of the stock market. It seems like you are going out of your way to attempt to criticize me, but you did that in a way that doesn't make sense.

I don't understand what happiness you could possibly derive from criticism. I sincerely wish you the best of luck in all of your endeavors.
Maybe you missed this key part of the article you posted
Gold futures fell as much as 1.6 percent to $1,236.50 an ounce on the Comex, the lowest for a most-active contract since May 17. It dropped through the key moving averages for the previous 100 and 200 days

1.6% drop in Gold is actual tame considering the fall thru 2 MA's, nothing "shocking" or "manipulated".
 
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Been very busy on a project with barely time to keep up with the posts and some PM replies- Got a window, so thought I would update macro view from my perspective.

Summary: I continue to place current macro (and it's effect on TSLA) at an Orange-Hard Watch Alert (scale of Yellow-Caution, Orange-Hard 6 months Watch, Red-Pullback imminent, GTFO- Go to Mars). Again in my own vernacular, Orange means stay Fully invested without significant leverage. Remember as I've said before, these are not meant to predict short term, but 6-18+ month outlook to judge how to position relative- Common, Option leverage, Margin leverage etc. And to provide visibility on macro risk for your longer term investment strategy.

It's going to happen faster than you may expect.
Hence my statements regarding- not being under invested or attempting to cross-trade on macro cycles.
Many more elements, but this is again why I continue to advise an investment that tunes TSLA to the macro harmonic frequencies -
I'm currently oversubscribed in Common by 3X; But without leverage to ride the next 5 years.
I like Common with some DITM LEAPS when appropriate...

All the best TMC Investors!
Thanks for the extensive analysis of the macro winds. Volatility does seem to be increasing. The difficult thing for many of us is to de-leverage with TSLA just when their most historic window opens. Ultimately, each of us has to find the amount of leverage we are comfortable with given TSLA's current situation, while still considering the macro risk. Some leverage seems prudent to me right now. It also seems prudent to be a bit cautious with the leverage in case the market rolls over so that resources are available to take advantage of that. It would be awful to be fully leveraged going into that situation.
 
The difficult thing for many of us is to de-leverage with TSLA just when their most historic window opens. Ultimately, each of us has to find the amount of leverage we are comfortable with given TSLA's current situation, while still considering the macro risk.
Yep - a clear dilemma
Like those 2008 APPL days when they were growing $Bs every quarter, while their stock was dropping like a rock-
another dilemma
(for clarity, not predicting that scenario here - just using that example)

Everyone needs to deploy their own solution which integrates all personal considerations - economic and otherwise;
Mine was to convert external assets to massively oversubscribe in un-leveraged Common -
others find ways to used DITM LEAPS to more safely apply some leverage.
Still others carry a Core while making higher risks with smaller amounts -
As long as everyone has the information about the potentials of both risk and reward- each can make wise decisions commensurate with their own situation.
Rock on!!
 
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OMG - what have we done

Republican Rep. Dana Rohrabacher of Costa Mesa is a member of the House Committee on Science, Space and Technology's subcommittee on space.

I rated this funny, because there is no Insane or Ludicrous rating. You would think a Tesla Motors Club website would have insane and ludicrous ratings.Never have we had more need for them.
 
Leading Economic Indicator up .6% (June)- 8 of 10 components strengthening. Much more than expected (.4) and double May of .3
Excellent sign of economic growth helping to mitigate other risks. Good show.
Stay strong, but long... my friends

[disclosure: I've gradually converted 1/3 of my TSLA common to J19 $250 LEAP during the recent macro dip- performed in 3 stages at SP $308, $315, and $325; on any drop close to $310, I'll convert more. All common and DITM LEAPS are in Core long term]
 
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Just to clarify quickly:
I'm still on macro Orange Alert- Hard Watch for next few months.
The recent increase in my tracking position using DITM-LEAPS in Core is induced primarily by the 20% TSLA re-tracement from Sector rotations (in both directions), along with a Fed induced lengthening of macro risks.
The effects now align those risks across the M3 ramp (which I'm betting is largely on schedule). This combination was sufficient to add more tracking shares through this period- which depending on macro conditions progression, will be maintained or returned to original--

Many of the macro indicators continue to reflect high risk of volatility leading to potentially worse,
As I posted originally- moving to Orange alert will only resolve over the next few months;
whether we pause as markets catch up, or we move into bear-woods.
This immediate data reprieve allows a move out in time for the more serious risks, putting the M3 launch into a better cross-correllary time period - coupled with the recent 20% drop in TSLA, I took advantage of summation of the correlation of events...

As part of the Leading Economic Indicator upgrade- note Future Capital Expenditures are VERY robust - a good counter to the macro risk profile;

DFQwpjTW0AEk6B7.jpg


Hence my bottomline currently - stay strong but long

I hope that provides more contextual clarity
 
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