Tesla Master Plan Part 2 & 3

[Pdub2015]

VW had to give up on the return of the VW Bus concept because they couldn't make crash safety work. I'm not sure how short a nose Tesla could really manage these days. But it should be interesting and I'm sure it'll be a creative solution that's integrated from the ground up and works very well for their priority use case. We'll have to see how flexible it is.

My cab over vision isn't cab over the front wheels... It's over the cargo box/tray.

 

[Saghost]

Along with the "super-factory', I think they also need to come up with a 5-10x improvement in the design of the vehicle. Cars should be designed more like cellphones, where they are put together with no "adjustment" being necessary. The parts fit together exactly and perfectly every time, just like Legos. This would fix the problems they are having now with both manufacturing speed, and customer satisfaction. Body panels should fit on the car one way, with no slop that can allow the panel to move around and possibly be put attached imperfectly.

This shouldn't be that hard, a car is really just a large cellphone, especially an electric one. So I think they need to use some of their engineers for this, along with improving the machine that makes the machines.

Making things exact is expensive. The tighter the tolerance, the more the cost. Really tight tolerances over large areas are often not practical at any cost.

There is room for improvement in car design, especially with the adoption of advanced materials, but it's not simple and what you're suggesting won't be cheap.

 

[tinm]

That giant crashing sound you just heard was the sound of the value of each pre-AP Classic Model S car dropping by thousands of dollars if not more. Well, maybe I can trade my aging S in for a 3... doing so might mean I'd only have to pay maybe $10K cash to get a base 3....

 

[Boourns]

Improvement to the "making" machines does not necessarily equate to improvements in the machines made. More likely, we'll see a higher output rate and a lower incidence of defects.

Makes sense.

 

[plankeye]

Making things exact is expensive. The tighter the tolerance, the more the cost. Really tight tolerances over large areas are often not practical at any cost.

There is room for improvement in car design, especially with the adoption of advanced materials, but it's not simple and what you're suggesting won't be cheap.

But neither is tons of problem fixing at the SC's.

 

[JPUConn]

I wonder if the tesla semi is just buying wrightspeed?

The Route Powertrain | Wrightspeed Powertrains

 

[Trips]

So we get the following vehicles.

1. Compact SUV
2. New kind of truck
3. Heavy-duty truck
4. High passenger-density (bus)
5. Semi

I am not seeing the roadster on here.

 

[weak_pig]

Yeah I mean they will have passengers' payment info anyway. As soon as people realize they're on the hook for 100% of any costly cleanup bill, they won't likely do anything stupid.

while this is true, how do we identify the culprit who did the deed, assuming your vehicle is loaned to several people during the day (or over several days if you're on vacation - where you can't check your vehicle condition until you get back)? Unless there is some form of internal camera to capture the person in the act?

Personally, I don't think I will loan my Tesla out, after all, it's my...

 

[Boourns]

That giant crashing sound you just heard was the sound of the value of each pre-AP Classic Model S car dropping by thousands of dollars if not more. Well, maybe I can trade my aging S in for a 3... doing so might mean I'd only have to pay maybe $10K cash to get a base 3....

I think by the time the "make money for you" Teslas are out many of us will have already replaced our Model 3. I don't see anything he said affecting the short term resale of a classic S.

 

[brkaus]

"...empowering the individual as their own utility..."

Doesn't the solar city model look more like solar city is the utility?

 

[tinm]

"...empowering the individual as their own utility..."

Doesn't the solar city model look more like solar city is the utility?

I'm hoping this is Elon's way of hinting that Tesla's thinking OFF-GRID, not just "grid-tied solar, with PowerWall as huge household-UPS backup in case grid goes out". I want a complete, cheap, off-grid solution.

 

[Mkorpal]

Pretty shocked he thinks they will unveil a semi and bus next year. Even the rumored crossover Model Y seemed like a stretch to be introduced next year. And that would have been just a different body on the already developed Model 3 chassis. In this case, you are talking about what would have to be a monumental leap in technology to make it feasible and economical. Yeah, I'm calling the usual Tesla BS on that one. I expect it in 5 years though.

 

[Saghost]

Pretty shocked he thinks they will unveil a semi and bus next year. Even the rumored crossover Model Y seemed like a stretch to be introduced next year. And that would have been just a different body on the already developed Model 3 chassis. In this case, you are talking about what would have to be a monumental leap in technology to make it feasible and economical. Yeah, I'm calling the usual Tesla BS on that one. I expect it in 5 years though.

I was assuming this was unveil as in "we'll show you a prototype, maybe drive it around for you" like they've done ~3 years before they built the car for most of their history (though the 3 is supposed to be only ~1.5 years ahead.) I wouldn't expect them to build either in 2017, but maybe in 2020 or so. I'm assuming we'll see the Y before that - quite possibly at the next reveal (in December?)

 

[Ludus]

Exactly that. It's not something they can do on their own.

The problem with rail vs autonomous street electric vehicles is much higher capital cost, disruption, time and inflexibility.

In cities it takes forever to put in rail. This sort of autonomous bus/vehicle mobility system could be put in place overnight. A couple weeks for detailed mapping, installing scattered snake chargers and getting people to download the app and a few thousand vehicles just roll in and take over. A complete fully electric urban transport system mass produced at low cost.

 

[Bangor Bob]

Given the California disaster and the extraordinary costs per mile for rail in the US, I think that rail is dead here.

Hopefully not. The Amtrak northeast corridor makes money, would make more if it had track that would allow for truly high-speed operation, and is a far more pleasant experience than flying.

Of course, if a hyperloop goes in, all bets are off...

 

[Gilzo]

I'm hoping this is Elon's way of hinting that Tesla's thinking OFF-GRID, not just "grid-tied solar, with PowerWall as huge household-UPS backup in case grid goes out". I want a complete, cheap, off-grid solution.

Me too man...me too. I'm planning my off grid system for the future so any help from Tesla in this area is very much welcomed.

 

[Saghost]

The problem with rail vs autonomous street electric vehicles is much higher capital cost, disruption, time and inflexibility.

In cities it takes forever to put in rail. This sort of autonomous bus/vehicle mobility system could be put in place overnight. A couple weeks for detailed mapping, installing scattered snake chargers and getting people to download the app and a few thousand vehicles just roll in and take over. A complete fully electric urban transport system mass produced at low cost.

Traded against much higher production costs for the vehicles (have to carry batteries...), higher maintenance costs for the roads, greater space usage for the same capacity (including disrupting automotive traffic,) and ongoing higher energy costs to move the same loads (~3x more energy to move something on a semi compared to a train per ton.)

Pay your money, take your choice.

 

[Mkorpal]

Hopefully not. The Amtrak northeast corridor makes money, would make more if it had track that would allow for truly high-speed operation, and is a for more pleasant experience than flying.

unfortunately I think that may be the only profitable long range rail line in the US.

 

[HEIDELCEDRIC]

Now we just need some talented people to make concepts of a Semi, and Bus..... To wet our appetites even more lol

 

[BluestarE3]

So we get the following vehicles.

1. Compact SUV
2. New kind of truck
3. Heavy-duty truck
4. High passenger-density (bus)
5. Semi

I am not seeing the roadster on here.

The heavy-duty truck and semi are the same vehicle (your #3 and #5).

The next roadster is a niche vehicle and won't be produced/sold in any significant qualities to play a material role in any aspect of the outlined master plan part deux. In contrast the original Roadster was a key product in the original master plan because it generated the revenue to help fund the development of the Model S and, in turn, the rest of the original plan.