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Tesla Master Plan Part 2 & 3
- Thread starter Blackout
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Bangor Bob
Member
Try building a 17' long smartphone some time, and see what problems you run into.
Manufacturing tolerances are a real thing. A tricky thing at that. Steel and aluminum expand and contract based on temperature. Big parts expand and contract more than small ones.When you bend sheet metal, it doesn't precisely follow the die, and it also springs back when the pressure comes off. Not always the by same amount, either - since the thickness varies, metal grain size varies, etc. When you have multiple bends in a single piece, the variances start to stack up. When you weld one piece to another, they change size on you while you're laying down the weld. When you have multiple pieces welded together, those variances also start to stack up.
The tighter you design your tolerances, the more precise the tolerances on the equipment making the part need to be, and the more expensive and slower things get. It's a trade off - cost vs. precision vs. speed.
James Anders
Member
On board with everything except the silly ride-share concept. Would make more sense to sell fleets of vehicles to companies that will provide a service. I really don't think private owners will loan out their personal cars.
First reason - people are pigs. Rental car mentality.
Need vehicle right now. Yeah, I might only use my car 10% of the day but it's tough to predict exactly when I will need it and it's not worth waiting for some bozo to return when I need to go to the pet hospital right away.
First reason - people are pigs. Rental car mentality.
Need vehicle right now. Yeah, I might only use my car 10% of the day but it's tough to predict exactly when I will need it and it's not worth waiting for some bozo to return when I need to go to the pet hospital right away.
BluestarE3
Active Member
Okay, maybe I'm dense, but if the center aisle is removed and seats placed where entryways currently are located, how do passengers get on and off the bus? Or is he saying there will be individual doors dedicated to each row of seats?
The part about you being able to call your car to you is truly amazing. Highly looking forward to that as well as the car being able to drive itself. I do however have two concerns. What about the people that want to buy a Tesla but don't want other people using it? If you think your car coming back in pretty bad shape on the inside is not going to happen then hahahahaha, your funny.They are just a tad screwed paying for more expensive cars now? Second thing is, and I have said this countless times, will we still be able to drive ourselves? If its not acceptable to be human driven due to safety concerns after many are automous, can we at least be able to drive with the computer watching over us. Like a "shadow mode" type of thing? Like for example in sports cars, you want to feel that ludicrous mode don't you? Or the insane stopping power of carbon ceramic brakes? Or the mind blowing g's generated by a car with a good suspension? And yes I know the computer can do that but you don't have control so it wont be how you want it. Another example is trucks, I don't think the people with truck are going to accept not being able to drive it. You lose an UNBELIEVABLE amount of utility when you can't drive, basically anything you do with a truck that a car can't do. So ya, shadow mode in trucks and sports cars, and an option in other types of vehicles.
To another point, as a car and speed lover I had a thought. If every car is automous that means we can get rid of speed limits because the computers are perfectly safe. If that's the case can we let the cars go as fast and they are safely capable of going? So if i have a lambo I can floor it and be doing like 150 and it be perfectly legal because my cars systems are designed to do that and keep it safe? That would be freaking amazing.
To another point, as a car and speed lover I had a thought. If every car is automous that means we can get rid of speed limits because the computers are perfectly safe. If that's the case can we let the cars go as fast and they are safely capable of going? So if i have a lambo I can floor it and be doing like 150 and it be perfectly legal because my cars systems are designed to do that and keep it safe? That would be freaking amazing.
larmor
Active Member
History may repeat: market was not pleased when netflix split streaming from DVD mail service, but netflix won in the end (went and split by 7 i think) because netflix most likely didn't guess, they did focus groups hired smart people, etc, and projected the future.
Jo-
Member
I thought individual doors when I read it. Each party of passengers with their own cabin maybe? A thin wall in between each? That's what I'd want if I'm traveling via mass transit.
I too love the summon idea but I don't see how it can really work in the real world. Ok, I summon my car to the airport hundreds of miles away to meet me when I land. On the way, the car gets a flat tire. Now what? Or worse, someone crashes into my car through know fault of its own. Rear ended perhaps. It happens every day. There's nobody on board to handle these events, and by the way now my car is stranded or worse.
I never thought I would rent my house out but use Airbnb all the time. Never thought I would use my Lexus as a taxi for Uber but do that.
Would I let my M3 out to play with a stranger,? Yes after it was a few years old.
Get a 5 year loan, drive it yourself for 2 years and buy a new one. With the old one let it go to work for you and if it can make you $25 a day you break even. If it makes more, that is profit.
Oh come on, what happened to your imagination? You can dream up negative scenarios but can't fathom positive ones too? Of course your smart car will be able to call for roadside assistance AND order a car service to pick you up on time.
Erleichda
Member
Consider how outlandish the 2006 master plan appeared to the world. However, many of us were reading a lot about Tesla back then and thought..."hmmm, this could make sense!" *caveat being many, many details that others could not overcome. But many other companies fail because of this lack of a master plan. They want that hot new app. They get a surprise hot product.
We have a track record of 10 years of Tesla beating expectations from 2006 over 1000%. And we all know why and how, despite the bumps in the road. (I couldn't resist). So the media, the yahoos online, the large foreheaded neighbors or coworkers...we started to ignore them about 5 years ago.
So when someone like Elon lays out the next 10 year plan, personally I start to look at the world around me to see what he is seeing. Ya, the first deadlines were missed. Hell, the model S almost didn't make it. I know the model 3 ramp looks steep, but I also read between the lines that a lot of that work is done. They had forethought, they have been building towards the model 3 for many years. Their capital raise is gobbled up. The gigafactory is opening. The Fremont factory is waaaay built out. So ya, a guy like Elon knows what his companies are capable of in the next 10 years. Ramping new models is going to be easier and easier with volumes and tested platforms...many of which are so frickin viable for other uses because of how they were thought out it should scare people.
So ya, the next 10 years will pretty much end up as he said. A few unexpected's (nobody wanted a battery swap station and Elon even stated that before trying it) but this is the cogent, assimilated thought experiment you should expect Elon to execute.
I want to have his babies.
We have a track record of 10 years of Tesla beating expectations from 2006 over 1000%. And we all know why and how, despite the bumps in the road. (I couldn't resist). So the media, the yahoos online, the large foreheaded neighbors or coworkers...we started to ignore them about 5 years ago.
So when someone like Elon lays out the next 10 year plan, personally I start to look at the world around me to see what he is seeing. Ya, the first deadlines were missed. Hell, the model S almost didn't make it. I know the model 3 ramp looks steep, but I also read between the lines that a lot of that work is done. They had forethought, they have been building towards the model 3 for many years. Their capital raise is gobbled up. The gigafactory is opening. The Fremont factory is waaaay built out. So ya, a guy like Elon knows what his companies are capable of in the next 10 years. Ramping new models is going to be easier and easier with volumes and tested platforms...many of which are so frickin viable for other uses because of how they were thought out it should scare people.
So ya, the next 10 years will pretty much end up as he said. A few unexpected's (nobody wanted a battery swap station and Elon even stated that before trying it) but this is the cogent, assimilated thought experiment you should expect Elon to execute.
I want to have his babies.
travwill
Active Member
I don't think the timing of this Part 2 was appropriate - and its clear it was to push for the financial purchase of SolarCity. Still don't think that's a good idea as Tesla is over extended in debt already and SC has a lot of short-term debt. They should integrate without the merger. It isn't THAT hard.
On the mass transit, that is WAY off, or at least design a bus/other than has batteries towards bottom and motors and provide those components. The rest of the vehicles don't make sense to produce. Just the platform piece at most. Rest of the vehicle can be left up to the builder. Do many people on here take buses or public transit? From time to time we do in Chicago and its typically nasty, and even on a battery driven bus it's going to be nasty, beat up, full of crazies & bums, so don't envision some fabulous electric mass transit machine - but at least one that efficient. And following any kind of autonomy in an urban city is going to require special lanes at this point that are enforce as you can't drive anywhere in a major urban city and not have to cross into other lanes ad-hoc, swerve, go over metal sheets for construction, etc. That is a LONG ways off.
Summoning a car also is a LONG way off as too many issues occur as it is in traffic, wrecks, etc. Lots of support services for crashed, broken down, accident involved autonomous cars will be needed first since owners/people wouldn't be there; however, will likely be responsible.
I give his 10 year plan a more realistic 30 years (if we haven't all killed each other by then)...
On the mass transit, that is WAY off, or at least design a bus/other than has batteries towards bottom and motors and provide those components. The rest of the vehicles don't make sense to produce. Just the platform piece at most. Rest of the vehicle can be left up to the builder. Do many people on here take buses or public transit? From time to time we do in Chicago and its typically nasty, and even on a battery driven bus it's going to be nasty, beat up, full of crazies & bums, so don't envision some fabulous electric mass transit machine - but at least one that efficient. And following any kind of autonomy in an urban city is going to require special lanes at this point that are enforce as you can't drive anywhere in a major urban city and not have to cross into other lanes ad-hoc, swerve, go over metal sheets for construction, etc. That is a LONG ways off.
Summoning a car also is a LONG way off as too many issues occur as it is in traffic, wrecks, etc. Lots of support services for crashed, broken down, accident involved autonomous cars will be needed first since owners/people wouldn't be there; however, will likely be responsible.
I give his 10 year plan a more realistic 30 years (if we haven't all killed each other by then)...
AZ Desert Driver
Rare combination
Rail is a single vector - point A to point B. It is very good at hauling lots of tons per gallon of fuel. But it does not go everywhere. A Semi has many more miles of network to rumble down. New track has to buy new ROW - and there will be lots of NIMBY. Trucks can use existing roads with no critic to say NO.
You would be stranded too if you were in your own car and you would likely resolve it the same way--call a service vehicle and/or summon another vehicle for a ride. You are delayed either way. It will take a while to get used to the idea, that's for sure.
JohnSnowNW
Active Member
Your view of what car ownership is today, probably won't mesh with the realities autonomous driving will afford in the future.
You're essentially saying that because you wouldn't want to spend time hauling strangers around in your personal vehicle, no business model could be built upon it. Well...
The "California disaster" as you refer to it (I don't buy that line of reasoning), is the direct result of NIMBY forces who believe that their personal interest (i.e. their house, their view, their neighborhood, their level of taxation, etc.) is more important than the greater good of the State of California and it's residents as a whole. The voters voted to make this happen in 2008, and the reason that it is so far behind schedule is that the NIMBY's have filed and continue to file endless lawsuits to the detriment of getting HSR actually built. Despite this, ground has been broken and there are thousands of people working on the project right now. Unemployment in Kern County has fallen from 17% in 2010 to less than 10% now. In spite of this, their local representatives continue to fight against the project. It's utterly unbelievable. Enough of this, for those interested please see Robert Cruickshank's excellent blog here:
California High Speed Rail Blog
With respect to any of SMP2 being an HSR killer, not the case. No part of the SMP2 will get you from L.A. to S.F. in less than 3 hours. The Tesla autonomous car (or whomever deploys it) will get you both the first and last mile (or more), with the HSR system doing the heavy lifting at high speed and high volume. Get the cars off the Interstate. HSR works everywhere it is deployed.
Those thinking that it "won't work here" just because "nobody rides trains" are living in a delusional world. Take your pick for moving 50,000,000 people around the state:
1. Build an HSR system
2. Expand the freeways to handle more traffic
3. Build more airports and expand the current ones
I'll leave it as an exercise for the poster to figure out which is the least expensive alternative for the worlds 7th largest economy
RT
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