Tesla Model 3 is crushing competition

[azred]

Good article! Make one wonder where all the short-sellers covering GM, Ford and FCA are! That's well over 2 million vehicles they are unable to sell right away! And the remaining manufacturers add up to another 2 million unsold vehicles! That's 4 million unsold vehicles just sitting out in the weather!

Lots of the competition seems to still be planning more hybrids. That should make dealers happy as it ensures much more repair and maintenance than BEVs.

But that also gives Tesla more time to move even further ahead of the competition in BEVs as the insane range numbers rocket up on new Teslas. My “ancient” 12/16 S is a borderline 249 and a joke compared to the 375 of the new S and even the 325 of my LR 3. A Tesla with over 300 miles of range plus Supercharger and Destination Charger network virtually eliminates range anxiety, unless you live in poor North Dakota.

 

[M3&Me]

Car sales are down. Everyone is buying SUVs. Should Tesla have gone with the Model Y first? I know I'd probably get a Y if it was offered now.

Agree

 

[afadeev]

BMW 3-Series US sales are down 40% in 2019.
Toyota Prius US sales are down 45% in 2019.

Kevin Rooke on Twitter

I don't know who Kevin Rooke is, but he is cherry picking stats to generate click-bait.

BMW sales, overall, are up for the year. So is Lexus.
Mercedes and Audi are down.
All changes are in single digit % range, so no drama:
U.S. Auto Sales Brand Rankings – April 2019 YTD | GCBC

Midsize luxury car sales, inclusive of Model 3, are up 15.3% overall for 2019:
Small And Midsize Luxury Car Sales In America – March 2019 | GCBC

Car sales are down. Everyone is buying SUVs. Should Tesla have gone with the Model Y first? I know I'd probably get a Y if it was offered now.

That's definitely a trend in the lower-end of the market. Less so with luxury cars and SUVs (both are growing).
With the strong economy and low gas prices, there is a decline in econobox car sales and growth in luxury vehicle (car & SUV) sales.

And no, I would not trade my 3 for a Y.
Why pay more for additional weight and inferior handling ?!!?


a

P.S.: BMW 3-series is going through model year refresh, so yeah, whatever.

 

[ammulder]

Midsize luxury car sales, inclusive of Model 3, are up 15.3% overall for 2019:
Small And Midsize Luxury Car Sales In America – March 2019 | GCBC

Wait, you're calling that "no drama"? A THIRD of those March sales are Model 3 (only a QUARTER if you look at YTD). It certainly seems like Tesla is having an impact. How would those numbers look without the Model 3?

 

[Dana1]

There is nothing to figure out. That’s like the comment above that everyone wants SUV’s. Lots of different tastes. But one thing is clear: Tesla has caused a boom in all-electric vehicle development. New competitors are popping up every day.

SUV sales are inversely proportionate to gas prices. Gas prices have been relatively low since shale spooled up. If prices spike again the sales will decline.

 

[Leafdriver333]

SUV sales are inversely proportionate to gas prices. Gas prices have been relatively low since shale spooled up. If prices spike again the sales will decline.

It used to be more true. However, small SUV's get 30mph on hwy nowadays.
My wife's X3 gets 31mpg on the freeway. For a 4167lbs vehicle that does 0-60 in 6.0 sec, it is not bad at all.

 

[afadeev]

Wait, you're calling that "no drama"? A THIRD of those March sales are Model 3 (only a QUARTER if you look at YTD).

There was an implicit suggestion in the OP's reference that Model 3 is killing BMW 3-series sales.
Then there was a suggestion made that all car sales are declining, and everyone is rushing into SUVs.

My point is that the above observations are gross oversimplification of car market dynamics, if not outright misleading. There are many more factors in play, and that Luxury car segment overall is doing very well.
So is Model 3.
Not so much for Model S and X, whose sales are down Y/Y, but that is largely due to TM3 cannibalization. Which, BTW, is bad for Tesla, but good for the customers.

It certainly seems like Tesla is having an impact. How would those numbers look without the Model 3?

Tesla is definitely growing, and we are all happy for them.
Most of us here have directly contributed to that growth.
I wish it was actually doing better, as 1Q sales were a massive disappointment, and so is the ongoing build-up of Model 3 inventories. We'll see where 2Q will take us.

That is not to say that it's all doom and gloom for other luxury automakers.
Tesla's current manufacturing capacity is ~300K vehicles, aiming to expand to ~500K vehicles by the end of 2019. Then maybe another 250K once Chinese plant comes online.

Global car sales were 82M vehicles in 2018.
Luxury cars accounted for 11% of that, or ~9M sold.
Even if demand for Teslas recovers, the supply is very constrained, and at most could capture 5.5% of total luxury car sales in 2019, maybe 8+% by 2020.

2018 (Full Year) International: Worldwide Car Sales and Global Market Analysis - Car Sales Statistics

Great for Tesla, but hardly death knell for the rest of the luxury industry, which is also (finally) going electric.

SUV sales are inversely proportionate to gas prices. Gas prices have been relatively low since shale spooled up. If prices spike again the sales will decline.

Agreed.
Although the emergence of hybrid SUVs may complicate these dynamics.

a

 

[SO16]

If road taxes are implemented for BEV's, there should also be additional surcharges for heavy SUV's and trucks.

Depending on the state you live in, people may pay a higher annual registration fee to cover road taxes. In Michigan it’s $200 per year (on top of normal registration fees). (More than the average gas guzzler pays annually in gas taxes.)

 

[SO16]

There is nothing to figure out. That’s like the comment above that everyone wants SUV’s. Lots of different tastes. But one thing is clear: Tesla has caused a boom in all-electric vehicle development. New competitors are popping up every day.

Yes they are. Too bad none of them even compare to Tesla in 2013 in terms of range, performance or charging infrastructure.

 

[Fernand]

The thing that bothers me most is the way America has mentally
degenerated. We used to root for innovation, for technology,
for the underdog startup. And for American jobs. Now what you
hear is exactly the opposite. And people buying big vehicles that
waste space, gas and look like military equipment. Is Detroit
great again? Meanwhile Tesla's an innovative product that's
being treated like a junk bond hustle. Doh. People don't even
know that an EV can be charged at home.

 

[mspohr]

LEAF Plus sales surge is definitely not underway.
Sales of the Nissan LEAF remain soft in the U.S. and likely will stay that way as the competition heats up.

Nissan LEAF Sales Drop Down In U.S. In April 2019

 

[Swampgator]

I don't know who Kevin Rooke is, but he is cherry picking stats to generate click-bait.

BMW sales, overall, are up for the year. So is Lexus.
Mercedes and Audi are down.
All changes are in single digit % range, so no drama:
U.S. Auto Sales Brand Rankings – April 2019 YTD | GCBC

Midsize luxury car sales, inclusive of Model 3, are up 15.3% overall for 2019:
Small And Midsize Luxury Car Sales In America – March 2019 | GCBC



That's definitely a trend in the lower-end of the market. Less so with luxury cars and SUVs (both are growing).
With the strong economy and low gas prices, there is a decline in econobox car sales and growth in luxury vehicle (car & SUV) sales.

And no, I would not trade my 3 for a Y.
Why pay more for additional weight and inferior handling ?!!?


a

P.S.: BMW 3-series is going through model year refresh, so yeah, whatever.

BMWw group includes Mini. Their overall sales are down. The light trucks are up big though so that helps them mitigate the loss.
When Model Y hits production they are dead. You think a redesigned 3 series will save them?

 

[Swampgator]

I posted this in another forum, but Model 3 alone sold almost as many cars in the US as BMWs entire passenger car lineup combined in April.

 

[norbert-tx]

The thing that bothers me most is the way America has mentally
degenerated. We used to root for innovation, for technology,
for the underdog startup. And for American jobs. Now what you
hear is exactly the opposite. And people buying big vehicles that
waste space, gas and look like military equipment. Is Detroit
great again? Meanwhile Tesla's an innovative product that's
being treated like a junk bond hustle. Doh. People don't even
know that an EV can be charged at home.

What SUV's are you seeing that look like military equipment? The best selling Toyota and Honda for example models are compact SUVs. They've dethroned cars as their most popular models. None of them look like military equipment nor do they waste space nor gas. I don't think its a status or luxury item, its more of a practical need. And they are cheaper than Teslas. So its not that people aren't supporting innovation, its that they can't afford it right now.

Guys, I'm a Tesla fan but some of the views on here are just as nutty as the Tesla haters.

 

[Swampgator]

The Tesla hate is all generated from Wall Street.
They manipulate the stock price up or down and make money on both sides.
Take Morgan Stanley for example: They downgraded TSLA last week helping to push the price lower. Then they back the equity raise this morning, making money on shorting the stock last week, as well as driving the price lower so they can make more on the equity raise this week.

These Wall street guys generate fake or overly dramatic news stories as well in order to make money shorting TSLA. Business insider for example runs a lot of these stories. They are owned by a German company that receives most of it's ad revenue from German Auto OEMs.
Then the average Joe reads those stories and things Tesla is a joke, or on the verge of bankruptcy. Or they make crappy cars, etc.

This has nothing to do with normal Americans rooting against innovation by an American car company.

 

[afadeev]

The Tesla hate is all generated from Wall Street.
They manipulate the stock price up or down and make money on both sides.
Take Morgan Stanley for example: They downgraded TSLA last week helping to push the price lower.
Then they back the equity raise this morning, making money on shorting the stock last week, as well as driving the price lower so they can make more on the equity raise this week.

This silly, and over-simplistic view seams to be a popular tantrum among a few, so allow me to point out a few obvious fallacies.

Wall Street banking is a business, and it makes way more money talking the clients' companies up, and raising capital for them, then down. You can't raise capital or provide ongoing financial services for a company that's going under. That's just bad business.

Research departments issue stock analysis and recommendations, and are legally and functionally separated from trading and investment banking desks. Suggestions that those organizations regularly conspire to manipulate any given stock price are fanciful. If you have proof, share it, and the accused will end up in jail.

Just because someone foresees a down-turn in the business (through week sales), and flags that for others through a downgrade, doesn't cause a deterioration in that company business. It reflects it.

If Elon didn't goof-up the 1Q sales through untimely international expansion that sucked-up limited cash reserves, or if the demand for Teslas' didn't slump post federal credit drop, the price would not have dropped. He did, and it did.

Wall Street did not cause it.
Elon did.
Stock downgrade and prices reflected it.

This has nothing to do with normal Americans rooting against innovation by an American car company.

Stock price has NOTHING to do with rooting for, or against, innovation.
Stock price is a reflection of cumulative supply & demand for owning a stock.

TSLA's stock price was unrealistically high for the earnings (or losses) it generates.
It came down a bit. No big deal.


a

 

[Swampgator]

This silly, and over-simplistic view seams to be a popular tantrum among a few, so allow me to point out a few obvious fallacies.

Wall Street banking is a business, and it makes way more money talking the clients' companies up, and raising capital for them, then down. You can't raise capital or provide ongoing financial services for a company that's going under. That's just bad business.

Research departments issue stock analysis and recommendations, and are legally and functionally separated from trading and investment banking desks. Suggestions that those organizations regularly conspire to manipulate any given stock price are fanciful. If you have proof, share it, and the accused will end up in jail.

Just because someone foresees a down-turn in the business (through week sales), and flags that for others through a downgrade, doesn't cause a deterioration in that company business. It reflects it.

If Elon didn't goof-up the 1Q sales through untimely international expansion that sucked-up limited cash reserves, or if the demand for Teslas' didn't slump post federal credit drop, the price would not have dropped. He did, and it did.

Wall Street did not cause it.
Elon did.
Stock downgrade and prices reflected it.




Stock price has NOTHING to do with rooting for, or against, innovation.
Stock price is a reflection of cumulative supply & demand for owning a stock.

TSLA's stock price was unrealistically high for the earnings (or losses) it generates.
It came down a bit. No big deal.


a

Really? So you think these international banks play by all of the rules? That's a good one.
Also, you don't seem to believe that well funded short sellers actively try and manipulate the stock price down?
Take a look at the famous Jim Cramer explaining how it's done.

 

[mspohr]

https://jalopnik.com/car-sales-just-keep-plummeting-1834467511

 

[LCR1]

Except none of those are competition for Tesla, neither of them are long range EVs, you have a hybrid and a luxury sedan. BMW and prius aren't compared to each other but somehow they are both compared to the model 3? Hey, the Ford F-series outsold Tesla in one month compared to the whole quarter for Tesla. Only in the Tesla cult is a Toyota commuter car and a Luxury sports sedan compared to Tesla. Find me anywhere else in the world 3 completely different vehicles are compared to each other and called competition...

The answer remains, if you want a long range EV Tesla is the big option. I didn't trade in a BMW 7 series for my Model S, but somehow because I bought a Model S my purchase is being used as "proof" that Tesla is crushing BMW 7 series sales

No one outside of Tesla takes these "comparisons" seriously, when we start comparing long range EVs to long range EVs then you have a comparison.

 

[mspohr]

Except none of those are competition for Tesla, neither of them are long range EVs, you have a hybrid and a luxury sedan. BMW and prius aren't compared to each other but somehow they are both compared to the model 3? Hey, the Ford F-series outsold Tesla in one month compared to the whole quarter for Tesla. Only in the Tesla cult is a Toyota commuter car and a Luxury sports sedan compared to Tesla. Find me anywhere else in the world 3 completely different vehicles are compared to each other and called competition...

The answer remains, if you want a long range EV Tesla is the big option. I didn't trade in a BMW 7 series for my Model S, but somehow because I bought a Model S my purchase is being used as "proof" that Tesla is crushing BMW 7 series sales

No one outside of Tesla takes these "comparisons" seriously, when we start comparing long range EVs to long range EVs then you have a comparison.

So it looks like Tesla has no competition.