Here Just the facts:
Q1:
• Record Q1 Model S production of 7,535 vehicles
• Delivered 6,457 Model S vehicles, slightly exceeding guidance
Q2:
• Record Q2 Model S deliveries of 7,579 vehicles
• Record Q2 Model S production of 8,763 vehicles
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So, what we have is in Q1 there was a "pipe" of 1078 vehicles and a "Finished Goods" of 132M
In Q2 we have a "pipe" of 1184 and a "Finished Goods" of 250M (nearly double).
We unfortunately don't know how many cars they produced vs delivered in Q4/2013 however their "finished goods" were listed at 69M which if you compare Y/Y in Q4/2012 they had 62M in finished goods. In Q3/2013 they had 102M, Q2/2013 they had 77M, finally in Q1/2013 they had 63M.
So, we can safely assume that during the period when they were trying NOT to fill a pipe (I mean Q4/2012-Q2/2013 they were only doing US deliveries and mostly to CA at that) they had about 74M average in finished goods. That is a float of 703 cars... I mean there were periods where they weren't even doing 700 cars in 2 weeks for some of that timeframe, so these cars MUST include loaners and show cars. So the question becomes how many?
Well, if each store has 2 show cars on the floor and there are now something like 100 stores across the world... so there is 200 cars. Most stores I have been to have 2 test drive cars, so X off another 200. How many loaners per shop? 5? 10? there are easily 100 service centers out there as well. If only 10 Tesla loaners that would be 1000 cars right there. Where do they get the cars for the "Test drive events"? let's just forget about those and assume they get them from a loaner fleet or some such. So without even trying I have already racked up about 1400 cars. I tried not to count stores not yet open, but have they set aside cars yet for some of those? what about soon to be opened service centers? What about cars that are at the factory that are strictly engineering/test cars? It is very easy to rack up more cars that are around the world for these purposes.
So what we know... they sold off massive amounts of their service/showroom/testdrive fleet back at the end of 2013 (hence the noticeable drop off from Q3 to Q4 in 2013 in finished goods), so they obviously had to remake more of those... in Q1. So let us be generous and say only 1/4th of those were for that purpose... now our pipe is only 750 "waiting to be delivered".
So you tracking so far? we have some 1500+ cars in their loaner/test/show roster. We have a "pipe" of 750 cars in Q1 to carry over into Q2. So from the deliveries in Q2 lets subtract that 750. That gives a new production vs delivery disparity of ~1934 cars. So we have 1934 cars "extra" produced in Q2 plus the fleet of around 1500 cars and that would give you around 3434 cars sitting around as "finished goods"...
Well, looks like I overshot your 3300 guess, without even trying... So ummm, what was your point again?
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In case someone has a hard time tracking what I am saying up there (I am too lazy to make clear pictures and charts), I am suggesting that there is a very logical and simple solution to explaining the "finished goods" without some crazy theory that they have 3000 cars just sitting in a warehouse somewhere because they actually don't have the demand that they are claiming they have. Occams Razor, the simplest solution is likely the right one, in this case, they have a large store/service base that requires cars, and they have a pipe to send cars all over the world. Most likely any cars they are sitting on, is either already sold or is being used for a specific other purpose. There isn't some crazy connect the dots conspiracy theory going on here.