Tesla Optimus Sub-Prime Robot

[scaesare]

Thought I'd do a simple one pager for Optimus and yes, it is slightly different from AI day#1, but just putting this out there to see how close I can get to what is demonstrated/detailed/spec'd on Friday...

Tesla Android MVP (first build 2023)

Stuff we know from AI day #1
Height, weight, carry capacity, eliminates repetitive and boring tasks, 40 electromechanical actuators

IS Hardware - Optimized for articulation, weight, space in that order.

BOM -
<$30k for 1st batch of 1000 in 2023 ($4k compute, $1k sensors, $1k cabling/network, $2k battery, $5k actuators/servos, $8k skeletal components, $4k skin/exterior, $1k external communication screen, $5k buffer/overrun
<$20k for 10k build in 2024
<$15k for 100k build in 2025
<$10k for 1M build in 2026

Battery - 8 hours of continuous use. 1 hour to charge, battery swap capable

Sensors -

Head - front, back, side, distance camera, thermal
Torso - single macro camera, thermal
Shoulders - Torque
Hands - Torque
Legs - Torque
Feet - Thermal, torque

IS Software - OS - Full OTA, download anytime, update when plugged in, for full stack update, lock step inference calc for critical actions.

IS Actions - Walking, bending, kneeling without bumping or disturbing objects. Ability to move in a well light medium to large indoor residential environment for up to 8 hours on a charge to do simple, basic pick and place of hard objects no larger than a cubic foot and 20 lbs. Hands limit of squeezing force of 1psi. Limited set of OOB tasks TBD

IS NOT Actions - Stairs, dark, rough ground, complex multi-step learned tasks.

IS Scenarios

1. Turn on when finished charging
2. Locate charging, plug in and turn off
3. Get me a can of soda from the fridge
4. Get me an apple from the counter
5. Turn off the light switch in the living room
6. Plug in my Tesla

IS NOT Scenarios

1. Make me a sandwich
2. Pour or handle/manage liquid
3. Dogs/Cats interaction
4. Any kind of tripping hazard over ½” high (rugs, litter/debris, balls…etc)

No tactile sensors in the hands you think? Just torque measurement?

I wonder.... the graphic Tesla had during the presentation said "human level hands"... while that's an incredibly high bar, I'd think at least some sort of sensing other than torque would be necessary...

 

[Mengy]

I really don't think Tesla wil design Optimus with battery swap capability. It adds so much complexity and weight to the torso (where the battery will be located) and goes against the Tesla/Elon design philosophy.....So yeah, I think the battery will be fixed in place and most likely have a dual function (energy + structural).

I agree. Charging will likely be fairly quick, so no need for battery swaps. Also with enough bots for manufacturing you can have "bot shifts" where team one works while team two charges, and they swap back and forth to keep the factory running continuously.

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1575714845114085377

 

[Mengy]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1575714845114085377

I hope those are the real hands and fingers moving!

 

[Buckminster]

My take on highlights of the event:

• Optimus actually already runs on FSD computer, with the same occupancy network, retrained with indoors environment. This validates the basic idea of the program, that Tesla FSD real world AI is transferable to general purpose robotics. This puts Tesla on the leading edge of building an actually working brain for AGI robotic slave labor, mind blowing possibilities.
• Their latest hardware is optimized for cost and large scale manufacturing. Being useful(while being cost effective) is much more impressive than being able to do back flips. This put them a few steps ahead of any other robotic companies. Remember, prototypes are easy, scale production is hard, no other humanoid general purpose robotic company has the manufacturing know how to do that.
• $20k cost after scaling. First delivery to general public in 3-5 years! And that starts two orders of magnitude impact on economical output over FSD! I can’t even compute that…
• FSD inner workings are impressive and cutting edge, these we already know.
• Dojo replace a quarter of GPUs early next year, this would dramatically increase their iteration speed at lower cost.
• No words about HW4 at all, wise choice, keep it quiet until it’s already in the cars(which I expect would be CT first).
• Lastly, Optimus would broaden Tesla’s mission to “Making the future awesome“, opening doors for all kinds of new distractions.(/s)

Overall, very impressive progress in all front, and at least Bumble C didn’t fall on its face…

 

[Buckminster]

Elon owned Gene Wilders's house. Is he modelling his factories on Gene's? Bots are the Ooompa-Loompas.

 

[Tiger]

This is hilarious

 

[Cosmacelf]

This is hilarious

I wonder who is behind that brand new channel with 15 subscribers?

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1586452974921871360

 

[Cosmacelf]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1586452974921871360

So now we know. The reason he left is the classic techie found himself doing too much management and wanted to remain doing hard core technical stuff, he he resigned.

 

[heltok]

Ashok liked this post:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1587100014668660737

IMO really cool.

 

[heltok]

Elon replied to this:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1602720768965898240

Here it does something:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1602723346625753088

Planning/Control inner monologue:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1602792767041990656

 

[Cosmacelf]

Um, I couldn't find Elon replying to that thread. He was replying to someone who replied to that thread. Specifically, Elon replied "True" to:

"That the AI language model breakthrough applies to so many domains (autonomous taxis, long read gene sequence reconstruction, here robotic capability) makes me suspect that the image generation breakthrough (diffusion) will have similar cross-domain applicability".

 

[Tiger]

Elon replied to this:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1602720768965898240

Here it does something:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1602723346625753088

Planning/Control inner monologue:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1602792767041990656

To me, this looks more like a swansong in the face of what's to come.

 

[Tiger]

To me, this looks more like a swansong in the face of what's to come.

More swan songs:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1603110714356400130

 

[heltok]

To me, this looks more like a swansong in the face of what's to come.

It's cute research. Elon is planning on making and actual mass production robot that quickly will iterate to revolutionize the world. That's the big difference. Like with EV where the competition have been making cute concept cars and a few compliance cars here and there, not betting the company on actually delivering a useful product.

 

[Tiger]

It's cute research. Elon is planning on making and actual mass production robot that quickly will iterate to revolutionize the world. That's the big difference. Like with EV where the competition have been making cute concept cars and a few compliance cars here and there, not betting the company on actually delivering a useful product.

Yes, and these limpy swansongs will lose all financing once this realizes, only the big players will go on.

 

[Buckminster]

OT
Wow - big news that could have a big impact in just a few years.
New fully-automated McDonald's restaurant completely run by machines

 

[Cosmacelf]

OT
Wow - big news that could have a big impact in just a few years.
New fully-automated McDonald's restaurant completely run by machines

“While your food will be cooked by real people, you won't have to interact with them at all because they'll be tucked away in the kitchen.”

Optimus will actually cook the meal too…

 

[jebinc]

It's cute research. Elon is planning on making and actual mass production robot that quickly will iterate to revolutionize the world. That's the big difference. Like with EV where the competition have been making cute concept cars and a few compliance cars here and there, not betting the company on actually delivering a useful product.

Love your profile picture! Yes and "probably" that or weight gain! All part of the Charlatan persona!