FSD discussion

[Doggydogworld]

That's it. We can increase safety- especially in regards to drunk driving and walkers in urban areas but we won't impact greenhouse gas emissions without moving the fleet. Agree completely on multi-passenger issue, thats really the issue.

EVs make only a small impact on GHG, anyway, but RTs could increase the impact:

1. We're battery constrained for next decade. Each 80 kWh in a 100k+ mile/year RT has 5-10x the impact of a privately owned commuter BEV
2. Carpool commuting is much easier with RTs
3. <100 Wh/mile 1-2 person RTs could become a large fraction of the fleet
4. RTs could be a last mile solution for streamlined mass transit

 

[nativewolf]

EVs make only a small impact on GHG, anyway, but RTs could increase the impact:

1. We're battery constrained for next decade. Each 80 kWh in a 100k+ mile/year RT has 5-10x the impact of a privately owned commuter BEV
2. Carpool commuting is much easier with RTs
3. <100 Wh/mile 1-2 person RTs could become a large fraction of the fleet
4. RTs could be a last mile solution for streamlined mass transit

I don't get point 1 at all.
2- Don't think it is relevant-t's just so small a % that it doesn't move the needle and see point 3- Tesla apparently agrees that's why they plan to make a tiny RT
3- you have to have tens of millions of them. If they really want to make 2 person robotaxis then it means they think nobody will carpool, fyi. You are just very close to a stranger.
4- Agree! the key point is is streamline mass transit. Mass transit can improve time/costs/sustainability of transport issues and RTs could do many last mile trips and never leave a terminus area, that's a great use of RT and could make mass transit more practical.

 

[willow_hiller]

Looks like FSD in China is imminent. But they're back to the "FSD Beta" language instead of "FSD Supervised" for the new country:

Tesla Software in China Shows 'Employee FSD Beta Program' as Tesla Prepares for Launch

FSD Beta text noticed in software for Chinese Tesla employees, pointing to an upcoming release of FSD in China.

www.notateslaapp.com

 

[hpiv]

Price is not a function of demand alone. It's a function of both supply and demand, which are sloped curves with respect to price and quantity.

Increasing the supply, like Tesla was doing as Berlin and Austin came online, will always reduce equilibrium price. It's really basic economics:

View attachment 1049651

And by decreasing the price Tesla was able to meet the quantity demanded.

You haven't caught Elon in a lie at all.

But Teslawas not able to meet the quantity demanded. Sales crashed, margins crashed, and now Tesla is selling fewer cars than they did before despite significant price cuts.

Elon even insisted on "infinite demand" as we started seeing this happen. How is that not a lie? Please explain that to me.

Are you saying he thought demand was infinite, and was simply mistaken? If so, why didn't he own up to his mistake and give shareholders a clear path to address this? Instead, he started wildly cutting jobs and reorganizing the company towards robotaxi.. or maybe not, maybe they are making a cheaper vehicle after all. Or maybe not. Who knows? Elon seems to be changing his mind all the time.

Crazy idea: Don't keep shareholders in the dark and suddenly tell everyone after Tesla stock price has crashed that you have to be all in on robotaxis or you might as well get out of Tesla. How about keeping the car sales business going to continue generating cash while at the same time working on robotaxis? Why was that not an option? Was the pivot because he doesn't think Tesla needs to keep making boatloads of cash in the short to medium term?

Or maybe he's just lying.

 

[willow_hiller]

Elon even insisted on "infinite demand" as we started seeing this happen. How is that not a lie? Please explain that to me.

Demand is not a fixed point. It's a curve showing the quantity demanded with respect to price. As supply increases, the equilibrium point where the supply curve meets the demand curve moves down and to the left, indicating decreased price and increased quantity.

The demand curve is asymptotic as price approaches zero, or in other words, it approaches infinity.

Did you folks seriously never take an economics course?

 

[hpiv]

Demand is not a fixed point. It's a curve showing the quantity demanded with respect to price. As supply increases, the equilibrium point where the supply curve meets the demand curve moves down and to the left, indicating decreased price and increased quantity.

The demand curve is asymptotic as price approaches zero, or in other words, it approaches infinity.

Did you folks seriously never take an economics course?

Again, he kept insisting on it as sales started plummeting, and the price cuts did not actually help much.

I'm pretty sure Elon knew exactly what was going on, because he will see the numbers long before shareholders know anything. Yet he insisted that demand was still strong.

Now they apparently have to cut production.

 

[Electroman]

Again, he kept insisting on it as sales started plummeting, and the price cuts did not actually help much.

It actually helped. But for those price cuts, the sales crash would have been disastrous. Macro conditions, interest rates yada yada

 

[SPadival]

Looks like FSD in China is imminent. But they're back to the "FSD Beta" language instead of "FSD Supervised" for the new country:

Tesla Software in China Shows 'Employee FSD Beta Program' as Tesla Prepares for Launch

FSD Beta text noticed in software for Chinese Tesla employees, pointing to an upcoming release of FSD in China.

www.notateslaapp.com

Vision autopark, which was developed a part of FSD V12 is already available in China!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1799098265230876947

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1799691885860241748

Might suggest that 12.5 won't be coming in June as originally slated. Given that 12.6 is already in works, I would rather just cut to 12.5.

 

[alexxs88]

Demand is not a fixed point. It's a curve showing the quantity demanded with respect to price. As supply increases, the equilibrium point where the supply curve meets the demand curve moves down and to the left, indicating decreased price and increased quantity.

The demand curve is asymptotic as price approaches zero, or in other words, it approaches infinity.

It's still a ridiculous thing to say by a CEO. Why? Because it means nothing. Most products and services have infinite demand by this logic. When you hear a CEO saying this, leaving aside the figure of speech hidden in there, you'd expect at the very least they'll be able to sell their CURRENT production level without having to severely drop the pricing of the product/service.

 

[willow_hiller]

It's still a ridiculous thing to say by a CEO. Why? Because it means nothing. Most products and services have infinite demand by this logic. When you hear a CEO saying this, leaving aside the figure of speech hidden in there, you'd expect at the very least they'll be able to sell their CURRENT production level without having to severely drop the pricing of the product/service.

I'm not saying it's not a meaningless thing to say. But for some reason a few other people chose it as an example where they had caught Elon in a lie.

The fact of the matter is that Elon doesn't lie. He makes ambitious targets to motivate his team, and frequently fails to achieve them on the original schedule. But he rarely doesn't achieve them.

 

[willow_hiller]

Bringing this thread back on topic, it sounds like Tesla is doing a very small 10-car pilot of FSD in China first: https://carnewschina.com/2024/06/14...in-shanghai-with-10-pilot-cars-official-says/

Given it's such a small pilot, I can't help but wonder if this will be greater than Level 2 autonomy.

 

[Doggydogworld]

Bringing this thread back on topic, it sounds like Tesla is doing a very small 10-car pilot of FSD in China first: https://carnewschina.com/2024/06/14...in-shanghai-with-10-pilot-cars-official-says/

Given it's such a small pilot, I can't help but wonder if this will be greater than Level 2 autonomy.

Pretty sure it's still FSD-S. Employee in the driver's seat, paying attention. Eventual expansion to public beta testers.

"Once Tesla receives MIIT approval, company employees will be allowed to test FSD on public roads, followed by an allowance for Chinese users, the report says."

 

[EVNow]

Elon has set ambitious targets that he's failed to meet before (see Solar Roof, numerous autonomy milestones, etc.), but I find that more often it's other people lying about or distorting things Elon has said, rather than the other way around.

Do you have any evidence of Elon saying something he knew was not true at the time he said it?

I can point to a lot of things - but mods won't like it