Tesla Optimus Sub-Prime Robot

[heltok]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1749708516837953678

Could they mean this one?

 

[thenewguy1979]

I see two problems with his thoughts here-


1) For most of it he runs the math pricing the bot at 2.5 to 5 times higher than Tesla themselves says they intend to sell it for.

2) All his premises start with "Tesla has a fully working, does everything a human can, robot" which... they don't. It's like the people who start with "Ok, so with L5 FSD Tesla can make X dollars"... well, sure... If I had things that don't exist I also could make more money. I don't think there's ANYBODY who doesn't think "L5 is worth a ton of cash" or "Humanoid robots that can all the jobs humans can are worth a ton of cash". The question is who, and when, will have them reasonably for sale. Both might well be Tesla (though certainly not this year for either), but as FSD as shown, sometimes things take a lot longer than initially thought.


All that also ignores the massive social and economic impact of suddenly almost nobody has a job- so who is buying those tens of millions of iphones the robots are making? But that's another topic I think.

I would love to smoke whatever "hopium" that guy is having. So we can move on from the weeks of depressing stock prices.

Deep but full of speculations ala FSD RoboTaxi.........

 

[Buckminster]

Earnings call: Bot to ship to customers in 2025

 

[Knightshade]

Earnings call: Bot to ship to customers in 2025

Well... no...

Earnings call Elon "thinks" there's a "good chance" of shipping "some" in 2025.

Much like he's thought there was a good chance of autonomous driving every year since 2017.


Which puts the most optimistic NOT crazy mass production prediction at 2026 earliest.

 

[heltok]

Well... no...

Earnings call Elon "thinks" there's a "good chance" of shipping "some" in 2025.

Much like he's thought there was a good chance of autonomous driving every year since 2017.


Which puts the most optimistic NOT crazy mass production prediction at 2026 earliest.

Unless they first ship some to themselves.

 

[Knightshade]

Hopium is a helluva drug

 

[andy92782]

Forgive me if this is a repeat question- I did a quick search and nothing jumped out at me. Can someone help me understand how the development of a humanoid robot applies to Tesla's overall mission statement (To Accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy)?

 

[Knightshade]

Forgive me if this is a repeat question- I did a quick search and nothing jumped out at me. Can someone help me understand how the development of a humanoid robot applies to Tesla's overall mission statement (To Accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy)?

AI day video this exact thing is addressed:

go to 2:34:25 in the video- guy asks how Optimius fits with mission statement...Elons answer kinda almost feels like he hadn't even considered it himself until then, and he admits it kinda doesn't precisely fit and maybe they should change mission statement "making the future awesome" or something.

 

[UkNorthampton]

Forgive me if this is a repeat question- I did a quick search and nothing jumped out at me. Can someone help me understand how the development of a humanoid robot applies to Tesla's overall mission statement (To Accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy)?

Solar (wind) renewable energy > grid > bot > work > goods (efficient)
vs
Lots of inputs (including fossil fuel derived) > food > human + lots more fossil fuel inputs > work > goods

 

[andy92782]

Solar (wind) renewable energy > grid > bot > work > goods (efficient)
vs
Lots of inputs (including fossil fuel derived) > food > human + lots more fossil fuel inputs > work > goods

Playing devil's advocate here.. If bots are more efficient at turning energy into work than humans, then the need for humans is either reduced or eliminated. Seems contradictory to Elon's own desire for people to have more children.

 

[andy92782]

AI day video this exact thing is addressed:

go to 2:34:25 in the video- guy asks how Optimius fits with mission statement...Elons answer kinda almost feels like he hadn't even considered it himself until then, and he admits it kinda doesn't precisely fit and maybe they should change mission statement "making the future awesome" or something.

Yeah, I'd seen this before and remembered it was akin to a non-answer from Elon. I was just wondering if either Elon or Tesla has done anything to amend or clarify this since then. Doesn't seem so?

 

[UkNorthampton]

Playing devil's advocate here.. If bots are more efficient at turning energy into work than humans, then the need for humans TO WORK is either reduced or eliminated. Seems contradictory to Elon's own desire for people to have more children.

All work and no play = fewer kids

Some bored, relaxed drunken play....

I think many people are too consumed by work/career/expensive housing (and consumerism) to consider having kids at an early age.

I'm not sure it will change in a post-abundance future. A set of rich people normally try to grab power and the spoils. People are probably choosing not to have kids for a whole variety of reasons including peers not having them young.

 

[andy92782]

All work and no play = fewer kids

Some bored, relaxed drunken play....

I think many people are too consumed by work/career/expensive housing (and consumerism) to consider having kids at an early age.

I'm not sure it will change in a post-abundance future. A set of rich people normally try to grab power and the spoils. People are probably choosing not to have kids for a whole variety of reasons including peers not having them young.

There is no future I can imagine where people are having lots of kids and living a life of leisure due to an army of cheap humanoid robots which will provide an abundance of basic needs (food, clothing, shelter). "Blade Runner" seems a more likely outcome than "Star Trek".

 

[Knightshade]

Also population overall keeps going up- and in every projection keeps doing so long into the future.

It's far afield of topic but it's hard to read any current "concern" for low birth rates in any way other than concern about which demographics birth rates are higher vs lower.

 

[Tiger]

Also population overall keeps going up- and in every projection keeps doing so long into the future.

It's far afield of topic but it's hard to read any current "concern" for low birth rates in any way other than concern about which demographics birth rates are higher vs lower.

If the AI advent is real, it shouldn't matter which demographics, because people will probably soon be birthed and raised in pods anyways... it seems more like a marketing tactic instead of a profound opinnion.

 

[Cosmacelf]

It isn’t unusual to find successful companies doing things which are far afield from their core offerings. Apple was just a computer manufacturer and then started selling portable music players. Analysts had a heart attack when they started selling a phone.

Cloud computing isn’t exactly congruent with being an online retailer (Amazon).

So I’m glad Tesla is branching out.

 

[heltok]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1750963142887415958

I expect laundry folding will be on a similar trajectory.

 

[Tiger]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1750963142887415958

I expect laundry folding will be on a similar trajectory.

$25k doorstop. Take my money already! /s

 

[heltok]

Compare what Tesla have done in the last 2 years to the last 7 years of Boston Dynamics:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1750871901235261724

 

[heltok]

Not directly Tesla-related. But iRobot who makes Roomba are having a hard time with the chinese competition:

Amazon terminates iRobot deal, Roomba maker to lay off 31% of staff

Amazon and iRobot said regulatory concerns made it impossible for the deal to move forward, sending the Roomba makers' shares plummeting.

www.cnbc.com

Amazon said on Monday it would not move forward with a planned acquisition of vacuum-maker iRobot, with the two companies saying in a release there was “no path to regulatory approval for the deal.”

The Roomba maker also announced it would lay off 31% of its employees, around 350 people, and that its chair and CEO, Colin Angle, would step down effective immediately.

Shares of iRobot fell 10% in morning trading on the news.

I track the robot vacuum and lawn mower subreddits. It seems that people like dreame/ecovacs for robot vacuums but are worried about the privacy with Chinese companies having cameras and voice recognition in their homes.

For lawn mowers, the Chinese company Mammotion seems to get a lot of praise, doing more than Swedish Husqvarna for a lot less. Their latest robot ups the game of the software even more:

I think we will see China becoming more and more dominant with robotics. And they are copying Tesla Optimus, Boston Dynamics Spot etc. They add features very fast and manage to deliver at a lot lower prices than the western companies.

Imo it will be tough times for the western companies, we will see if Tesla can remain ahead for long in the humanoid category. I would caution people assuming insane margins long term as competition will be ready to drive down the margins. Still bullish on Optimus, but would not expect $100k/year kind of profits, more like 30-50% GM which is fine.