Tesla owner configurations begin

[Muhammad]

Owner Fremont line waiter

Received my invite today

 

[EricUSC]

Tesla sent me my invite today with a delivery estimate of 4 weeks, which is probably too late for 2017 delivery. My conversation with Tesla indicated that they will likely not deliver by this year but cannot give me a definite Dec 2017 or Jan 2018 delivery timeframe. Since I am only interested in first production if I can take delivery by 2017, my decision for now is sadly to wait for the configuration that I really want.

I would be very unhappy if I get a Jan 2018 delivery and miss the tax credit knowing I could have ordered a different configuration. I'm guessing that the tax credit has a 50% chance of staying in 2018 and configuring a LR PUP car now will have a less than 50% chance of a 2017 delivery.

 

[suresv]

I'm Jun-Aug 2018 for AWD currently. (and Early 2018 for standard battery, and Nov.-Jan. for first production). I'm assuming you match me for first production, so possibly looking at the AWD dates that are further out can get us a bit more resolution to determine order within the first production group.

May be they are prioritizing cold weather folks for AWD. My standard battery says early 2018 as well

 

[DarthPierce]

What about the online people???

If I had a choice of buying bitcoin or waiting in line...I would have waited in line!!!

Bitcon is nuts right now. If you put the just the deposit down in bitcoin on day 1, you'd have had about 2.4 bitcoins - that's worth over 40,000 today....

If you thought "nicely equipped, it'll probably be 50k, let's invest that in bitcoin until it's ready" you'd be sitting on over 2 million, so buying an S to skip the line would be pretty manageable.

Of course, as with any investment, hindsight makes a lot of money

 

[ccutrer]

May be they are prioritizing cold weather folks for AWD. My standard battery says early 2018 as well

Hmm that could be true. But maybe not - I have a month earlier than other local owners that have first day (but afternoon, and possibly online) reservations, when mine was first thing in the morning. You CA people don't _really_ need AWD . This is all crystal ball peering anyway.

 

[ken830]

I only own a single Model S and have two Model 3 reservations (waited in line, first day). But both of my reservations became configurable this morning! Will probably wait for AWD/Performance version though.

 

[gdouglas70]

New here but just as another data point:
Non-owner, line waiter, Chicago
First production: dec-feb
Standard battery: early 2018
AWD: sep-nov 2018
So 1st production window appears to be bunched closely w owner line waiters but AWD window is several months behind owner line waiters.
These are the updated windows, they were a ~month earlier before they changed.the windows a few months ago.

 

[ccutrer]

New here but just as another data point:
Non-owner, line waiter, Chicago
First production: dec-feb
Standard battery: early 2018
AWD: sep-nov 2018
So 1st production window appears to be bunched closely w owner line waiters but AWD window is several months behind owner line waiters.
These are the updated windows, they were a ~month earlier before they changed.the windows a few months ago.

Interesting. More crystal ball peering here, but to me that would mean Tesla has adjusted estimates counting on a lot of owners waiting for AWD.

 

[EricUSC]

I called Tesla again and they told me the last day for 2017 production is December 23 and the factory shuts down for the rest of the year. With two weeks left for production, I'm guessing that a 2017 delivery is looking very unlikely for those who received their invitations to configure today?

 

[McHoffa]

I called Tesla again and they told me the last day for 2017 production is December 23 and the factory shuts down for the rest of the year. With two weeks left for production, I'm guessing that a 2017 delivery is looking very unlikely for those who received their invitations to configure today?

Considering people who were invited 11/22 are getting 12/11 delivery (which is a day short of 3 weeks), actual production might only be 2 weeks.

 

[smak]

Interesting. More crystal ball peering here, but to me that would mean Tesla has adjusted estimates counting on a lot of owners waiting for AWD.

Also possible that the invites today were filling in the blanks of people from the first invite who didn't order.

If they sent out 500 invites, but 250 delayed, maybe this invite is another 500, making them think they'll get 500 orders total.

 

[dsvick]

Someone asked earlier what was haphazard about the whole M3 process. Well , this is a prime example. Tesla was always saying one model S gets you one priority reservation. Turns out to be not so.

One or two outliers does not qualify as haphazard.

 

[EricUSC]

Considering people who were invited 11/22 are getting 12/11 delivery (which is a day short of 3 weeks), actual production might only be 2 weeks.

The uncertainty is driving me nuts. I think the possibility of the tax credit remaining intact is 50/50 and the chances of getting the car this year if I order today is also 50/50. It's a $7500 gamble. Here are the possible outcomes if I order today.

1. Delivery in 2017, tax credit repealed...score!!!! 25% chance
2. Delivery in 2017 or 2018, tax credit intact...great, but I would have waited for SR had I known. 50% chance
3. Delivery in 2018, tax credit repealed...crap, now I'm out $7500 on I car I otherwise wouldn't have bought. 25% chance

So for me, ordering today has a 25% positive outcome, 50% neutral outcome, and 25% negative outcome. Being that the chances of a completely positive outcome for me is only 25%, I decided not to configure yet, but the thought that I may or may not be making the right decision is certainly not putting me at rest.

 

[tomas]

The uncertainty is driving me nuts. I think the possibility of the tax credit remaining intact is 50/50 and the chances of getting the car this year if I order today is also 50/50. It's a $7500 gamble. Here are the possible outcomes if I order today.

1. Delivery in 2017, tax credit repealed...score!!!! 25% chance
2. Delivery in 2017 or 2018, tax credit intact...great, but I would have waited for SR had I known. 50% chance
3. Delivery in 2018, tax credit repealed...crap, now I'm out $7500 on I car I otherwise wouldn't have bought. 25% chance

So for me, ordering today has a 25% positive outcome, 50% neutral outcome, and 25% negative outcome. Being that the chances of a completely positive outcome for me is only 25%, I decided not to configure yet, but the thought that I may or may not be making the right decision is certainly not putting me at rest.

My attitude towards tax planning: don’t let the tail wag the dog.

 

[Big Earl]

The uncertainty is driving me nuts. I think the possibility of the tax credit remaining intact is 50/50 and the chances of getting the car this year if I order today is also 50/50. It's a $7500 gamble. Here are the possible outcomes if I order today.

1. Delivery in 2017, tax credit repealed...score!!!! 25% chance
2. Delivery in 2017 or 2018, tax credit intact...great, but I would have waited for SR had I known. 50% chance
3. Delivery in 2018, tax credit repealed...crap, now I'm out $7500 on I car I otherwise wouldn't have bought. 25% chance

So for me, ordering today has a 25% positive outcome, 50% neutral outcome, and 25% negative outcome. Being that the chances of a completely positive outcome for me is only 25%, I decided not to configure yet, but the thought that I may or may not be making the right decision is certainly not putting me at rest.

I'm sure there are plenty of late reservation holders who would be happy to buy the car from you at the price you paid for it, should the tax credit fall through. That might bump your 25% negative up to a neutral.

 

[suresv]

I'm sure there are plenty of late reservation holders who would be happy to buy the car from you at the price you paid for it, should the tax credit fall through. That might bump your 25% negative up to a neutral.

He will be down the sales tax he paid on the original sale though!!

 

[electric_feel]

Got the invite to design today. Waited in line on 3/31/2016 at the Mission Viejo, CA store. I was not a Tesla owner at the time on 3/31/2016, but I was just a few weeks later. Not sure if that helped more than being in California, but either way guess I'm part of wave 2!

 

[barjohn]

I'm just happy to see some invites going out. I received my second invitation to test drive an S today. I had to tell the rep that I di a test drive on Monday. Then he tried to convince me to order an S which he could get me before year end. After driving the S, I think I would prefer it but sadly for me I can't justify the $25K difference, or even a $15K difference if I count the tax credit and CA rebate. The CA rebate is up in the air as I bought a Bolt in July and was approved but still haven't seen the money. The same thing would probably happen with the S so then I would be waiting on $5K from CA and $15K in rebate. Meanwhile I would be out the cash. At Tesla's current rate of invites I don't see any way they will deliver to me in the window I have (Feb-APR revised).

 

[EinSV]

It looks like most of the owners who have received the invite reserved by 11:15 am PT (with a few exceptions). Model 3 invites to configure

I reserved about 12:30 or 1:00 pm so hopefully should be in the next round or two.

 

[K-MTG]

It looks like most of the owners who have received the invite reserved by 11:15 am PT (with a few exceptions). Model 3 invites to configure

I reserved about 12:30 or 1:00 pm so hopefully should be in the next round or two.

You are an existing owner in Cali who reserved at the store?? And you didn't receive your invite yet??

I was hoping online people would be next but I am surprised you didn't get yours.