At least according to this article...?
Tesla achieves Model 3 production of 1,000/day, pushes to maintain it and reduce costs
Tesla achieves Model 3 production of 1,000/day, pushes to maintain it and reduce costs
Tesla reaches 1,000 Model 3's per day Production rate
- Thread starter gilscales
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WaitingForY
Banned
Tesla reportedly achieves Model 3 production rate of 1,000 a day
Looks like the 4th quarter is going to be good. I think they've turned the corner.
Looks like the 4th quarter is going to be good. I think they've turned the corner.
One sentence confuses me. The one about suppliers "being burned by unstable production." What's the story there? The production rate curve hasn't been perfectly smooth but over the past 12 months Tesla has continuously increased production rates. What suppliers have been "burned"?
I think those who built parts in 2017 for x number of cars, but only 0.001x cars were actually built in that year.
Even if the parts were not built, part suppliers make big investments in capacity increase. If the product is delayed, they need to pay interest on the investments made with no income from that line.
Their current production numbers are ~4500 per week so this 1000/day seems like a peak number.
One story I've heard (not sure how true this is) is about the previous supplier of alcantara headliners. Tesla ordered an amount so large it couldn't be filled unless the supplier ramp up their own staffing and equipment. I believe they started to do so before Tesla paused those orders because of production delays and didn't have the funds to buy headliners for cars that cannot be sold for several more months.
Possibly a similar story with other still delayed items like the P3D spoiler.
ecarfan
Well-Known Member
1000 per day is commendable and celebration is justified.
Unless it was achieved with lower QC; poor fit & finish and inferior paint.
I will hope for the best. I sincerely hope StellaRat is correct that Tesla "has turned the corner.
Unless it was achieved with lower QC; poor fit & finish and inferior paint.
I will hope for the best. I sincerely hope StellaRat is correct that Tesla "has turned the corner.
ℬête Noire
Active Member
They are well around "the corner" that was crucial to survival. Very clear that they reached that back in August.
"Survival" is one thing ..... "quality" is another.
But .... Tesla must survive to improve quality.
We are all hoping that the assembly phase will soon complement the outstanding engineering and design.
But .... Tesla must survive to improve quality.
We are all hoping that the assembly phase will soon complement the outstanding engineering and design.
I think we'll have to see a few back to back quarters of profit before I'm going to say, "they are good to go." They have had profitable quarters in the past, but they were one offs. If we see profit in the 4th and 1st then I'll declare victory.
timk225
Active Member
Instead of beating their workers to death and rushing production to get quantity over quality, they need to buy another factory, maybe more towards the east coast, and install several more assembly lines. Then getting big numbers will be easier.
Another Gigafactory, that makes the batteries and everything. Stuff goes in, cars come out.
Another Gigafactory, that makes the batteries and everything. Stuff goes in, cars come out.
I placed my M3 order this morning, 11/30, and received word 11 hours later that my delivery is scheduled for 12/4 at 5pm! Appears that production has been good, at least for the long range AWD in deep blue metallic with 18" aeros heading to Columbus, Ohio.
ℬête Noire
Active Member
What real evidence is there to expect otherwise than in the black? Tellingly I haven't heard much talk from the bears. Sure I haven't tried to find it but then I never did before and it was omnipresent din. Methinks they've wondered out the wilderness, perhaps to die.
Tesla cut a lot of long-term lower priority outlays to make sure they were in the black in Q3, and they had $180mil excessive inventory in the pipeline due to avoiding the 200K trigger in Q2, so I expect Q4 to be off from some from Q3. On the flip side they've had, and will have, further opportunity to bring manufacturing costs down.
Q1 will likely be a mess optically but that's just an effect of their overseas logistic pipeline naturally is a lot longer. With the S & X they protect their books from that by only shipping overseas in the first month of a Q but not clear they'll be able to do that with the Model 3. However that's not "real" losses and they'll endure the effects of the delay for one Q, and all that inventory on the books is "guaranteed" sales just not in the bank. The only real part is marginal money market costs (a fraction of %1).
"I'm going to wait to see" is fine and good, but where's the basis for any expectation to head back into the red?
I don't have any reason to think they'll lose money, but who knows. They did go all out to turn a profit in the 3rd maybe they can't make a push like that again so soon. That seems to be a pretty weak reason given the production numbers we're seeing though. All I'm saying is that a conservative investor wouldn't say, "Put a bunch of money in Tesla!" right now. You need a good track record of profits for that. Tesla doesn't have that yet, but it probably will in a year or so.What real evidence is there to expect otherwise than in the black? Tellingly I haven't heard much talk from the bears. Sure I haven't tried to find it but then I never did before and it was omnipresent din. Methinks they've wondered out the wilderness, perhaps to die.
Tesla cut a lot of long-term lower priority outlays to make sure they were in the black in Q3, and they had $180mil excessive inventory in the pipeline due to avoiding the 200K trigger in Q2, so I expect Q4 to be off from some from Q3. On the flip side they've had, and will have, further opportunity to bring manufacturing costs down.
Q1 will likely be a mess optically but that's just an effect of their overseas logistic pipeline naturally is a lot longer. With the S & X they protect their books from that by only shipping overseas in the first month of a Q but not clear they'll be able to do that with the Model 3. However that's not "real" losses and they'll endure the effects of the delay for one Q, and all that inventory on the books is "guaranteed" sales just not in the bank. The only real part is marginal money market costs (a fraction of %1).
"I'm going to wait to see" is fine and good, but where's the basis for any expectation to head back into the red?
ℬête Noire
Active Member
It is very true that TSLA isn't a place for conservative investment.
A lot of potential for variance still. Imminent bankruptcy appears off the table but they aren't anything like a stable, "boring" operation yet and there remains uncertainty in meeting their goal of positive profit margin on base SR production, exactly how sales growth will behave as the Fed Tax Credit winds down, how their power storage division does (ability to grow production there), and so on.More midterm there is the expected slump in automobile sales market, that pretty much all the majors are battening the hatches down for. Some of that is the effective of Tesla coming on but there are larger economic forces at work there, too, and the net outcome of that on Tesla isn't clear yet.
roblab
Active Member
And reports were that there were 34,000 cars built in October. That's over 1000 per day. Maybe peak number is higher.
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