Tesla semi is ill conceived...

[N5329K]

Yep, it's been posted. He's only been trucking for nine months, although it gives him some experience he technically hasn't really advanced to "professional".

He certainly does not have the time behind the wheel that others do, but I assume he is correctly trained and licensed and paid to drive big trucks which, to my way of thinking, makes him professional enough to listen to his views (they're worth more than mine, that's for sure). I would want an opinion from people with years of driving, too, and would value those opinions more.
Kind of like a pilot with an ATP rating and just 1500 hours. Not experienced, not an old pro, but still, he/she is a professional pilot.
I know what you mean about radio controls. Any fool can make things work by being complicated. It takes genius to make them work and be simple.
Robin

 

[electracity]

Not vapor at all. There are many vehicles today with active torque vectoring. Independently controlled motors with active vectoring.

Not what Musk promised.

 

[N4HHE]

I want wind speed and direction sensors!

 

[T34ME]

I want wind speed and direction sensors!

That is very easy! Boats have had them for (50+) years.

 

[James Anders]

Not what Musk promised.

Really? Sure sounded that way to me. Oh well.

The Tesla Semi tackles this classic truck safety problem using tech

 

[TimM.]

I watched the introduction of the Tesla semi yesterday with great disappointment. Elon is getting warped information from the mega-carrier trucking companies ( like J.B. Hunt) and his product manager (from Freightliner). It is worth noting that trucking companies with 20 or fewer trucks comprise over 97% of the 3.5 million semis on the road in the United States.
Trucking Statistics - Truckinfo.net

The 3% of the industry that Elon is listening to is primarily concerned with return-on-equity to shareholders. As part of the quest to reduce the cost-per-mile, these mega carriers put poorly trained drivers in unsafe trucks and push them with Electronic Logging Devices so they can't rest when they are fatigued.

I haven't seen this mentioned in the comments yet, but Jack, you're misreading (or assuming a lot about) the stats on that truckinfo site. First, the 3.5M number is truck drivers, not semis.

97% is the # of companies, not # of trucks. So 3% of 1.2M companies means 36K companies have over 20 trucks. It's also likely exponential distribution, so those 3% make up a much larger % of the trucks on the road. Moreover, the 97% seems to be based on the 15.5M trucks, of which only 1/8 (2M) are tractor-trailers. It's very likely that those smaller companies are mostly operating the 87% of trucks that are not tractor-trailers, which means a relatively high percentage of tractor-trailers belong to companies that have >20, not the other way around.

I appreciate your insightful comments about safety, though. It's good to have a trucker's perspective -- but I wanted to point out the inaccuracy in almost all of your statistics.

 

[rpb1234]

I watched the introduction of the Tesla semi yesterday with great disappointment. Elon is getting warped information from the mega-carrier trucking companies ( like J.B. Hunt) and his product manager (from Freightliner). It is worth noting that trucking companies with 20 or fewer trucks comprise over 97% of the 3.5 million semis on the road in the United States.
Trucking Statistics - Truckinfo.net

The 3% of the industry that Elon is listening to is primarily concerned with return-on-equity to shareholders. As part of the quest to reduce the cost-per-mile, these mega carriers put poorly trained drivers in unsafe trucks and push them with Electronic Logging Devices so they can't rest when they are fatigued.

As an example, 16% of the J.B. Hunt semis were put out of service for safety violations after random roadside inspections by the DOT last year. Even worse, 31 J.B. Hunt drivers were killed while behind the wheel of J.B. Hunt trucks in the last 24 months.
SAFER Web - Company Snapshot J B HUNT TRANSPORT INC


It's no wonder truck driving is the most dangerous profession in the United States.
Most Deadly Occupation: Truck Driver

The 97% of the trucking industry of which I am a part is overwhelmingly concerned about safety. Tesla needs to put safety in the front seat and acceleration, range, charge time etc in the back seat. Instead of aiming for a lower cost-per-mile "from day one", how about designing a truck that is safe? As it stands now, the Tesla semi looks like a death trap.

-The large low windshield will allow a deer or cow to breach the cab in a 70 mph collision
-No roll cage
-No fire suppression
-No anti-icing
-No 4-way seatbelt harness
-Center seating allows no way for a driver to climb out of the cab after a rollover
-The hinges on the suicide doors will jam shut in a forward motion side swipe.
-The windshield is not reachable from the drivers seat, leaving no way to wipe it with a rag when it fogs after the defroster fuse blows
-Who told Elon that traction control on the tractor will eliminate jackknifes?
-Drive wheel fairings look like they will get in the way when trying to chain-up in the middle of the night in the wind and sub-zero weather
-No "T" handle for the trailer brakes
-No headache rack


I'm all for saving the environment. But the trucking industry is in desperate need of a safety revolution first. Here're some ideas:

-a button I can push in bad weather that jerks one of the drive tires and reads out on a display how much traction I have available
-an audio announcement I can have in bad weather at night that tells me when I am about to cross a bridge so I can line-up and "float" across the ice
-a powered 5th-wheel with axle weight sensors so I can properly balance the trailer and load the drives without having to use a CAT scale
-I need a display showing air temperature, road temperature and dew point
-I need cruise control that can switch between maintaining a set speed or maintaining a set tension on the tires
-I need a mixer for the trailer brakes that I can set according to the load in the trailer
-I need voice controlled access to road conditions and cams WYDOT Travel Information Service (Laramie)
-Is there any technology that could help detect black ice?
-I'd like an audible warning if the trailer loses tracking with the tractor
-I'd like automatic trailer ejection if the rig is blowing over in a wind gust


I am also concerned about driver fatigue. The Tesla semi suspension is not hinged the front of the cab like other tractors. This means the ride is going to be much rougher since there are only two suspensions (chassis and seat) instead of three (chassis, cab and seat).

The trucking industry needs a safety revolution. Tesla should lead with safety, not electrification. It's what the silent 97% of the market wants.

Drive safe...

jack

Musk said the cab can withstand an atomic blast which I learned is more powerful then bambi

 

[EinSV]

In your initial post you argued that Tesla should lead a safety revolution in trucking and that is what most of the market wants.

But now you suggest that even if Tesla does exactly that then owner operators would put themselves at risk by buying less safe trucks that would be much more expensive to operate because other truckers might get mad at them?

Trucking is very political, very regulated and has a violent history of resisting change. If I show up at shipper with a truck that operates at $.25 less a mile and has self driving features, what do you think the other guys are going to do?

This doesn’t add up to me, especially since basically the entire trucking industry, not just Tesla, is working on autonomy in one way or another.

I am also confused by your OP since you now suggest that you would not be interested in a Tesla Semi even if it was the safest in the industry.

 

[simonog]

But Elon didn't drive Tesla's semi program. Jerome Guillen did. (Jerome was the guy on stage who introduced the semi at the event Thursday night.) And Jerome has a truckload of experience in this area, culminating in running a successful Daimler semi truck program before joining Tesla. He also had some very experienced people on his team. Not a bunch of newbies without any experience in this field.

You are right - Jerome is a world expert with a hugely successful track record and a passion for trucks. He will be thinking well forward of today’s best efforts from the traditional manufacturers.

 

[e-FTW]

Mods: Semi needs it's own sub-forum. Some very specific and enlightening discussions to be had.

 

[Farmertom]

Tesla has to have jackknife control to allow aggressive use of regen on an articulated truck. But Tesla should not be given credit for "a huge safety gain" which is undoubtedly vaporware today.

Truck engines produce the same or more power through compression brakes compared to their rated power for years now and jackknifing hasn't been an issue.
Regenerative braking can be tied into ABS just like traction control.

 

[Farmertom]

No. H2 is a dead end technology for vehicles. Too many infrastructure problems and costs. Piping, pressurizing and storing H2 is just more trouble than it's worth. I was in that world for 2-3 years.

What changed was the rapid (and continued) rise of lithium battery technology.

All anyone needs to do is run an electric service line. Done. Infrastructure complete.

As opposed to dealing with H2 embrittlement, safety, transport, etc. The only ones still pushing H2 are the oil companies because that's where the H2 would come from.

Is the Nikola 1 project dead?

Battery technology is going to need a huge leap in energy density to work in my world. You can set fuel tanks anywhere to get the energy you need to work out in the country, the power grid would need 10x the capacity we have now.

Yesterday we traveled 540 miles round trip with four trucks to pickup cattle, we were empty (about 35,000lb) going there and loaded around 100,000lb coming home. The trucks burned just under a hundred gallons of fuel each, they could make a second trip on the remain fuel but it would be tight. With Tesla trucks we would need an additional truck plus we would be looking for electricity to recharge the batteries and as a result time ourselves out for the day.

With hydrogen specs and claims from Nikola 1 this trip would have been no different than what we did.

 

[pdq]

I watched the introduction of the Tesla semi yesterday with great disappointment. Elon is getting warped information from the mega-carrier trucking companies ( like J.B. Hunt) and his product manager (from Freightliner). It is worth noting that trucking companies with 20 or fewer trucks comprise over 97% of the 3.5 million semis on the road in the United States.
Trucking Statistics - Truckinfo.net

The 3% of the industry that Elon is listening to is primarily concerned with return-on-equity to shareholders. As part of the quest to reduce the cost-per-mile, these mega carriers put poorly trained drivers in unsafe trucks and push them with Electronic Logging Devices so they can't rest when they are fatigued.

As an example, 16% of the J.B. Hunt semis were put out of service for safety violations after random roadside inspections by the DOT last year. Even worse, 31 J.B. Hunt drivers were killed while behind the wheel of J.B. Hunt trucks in the last 24 months.
SAFER Web - Company Snapshot J B HUNT TRANSPORT INC


It's no wonder truck driving is the most dangerous profession in the United States.
Most Deadly Occupation: Truck Driver

The 97% of the trucking industry of which I am a part is overwhelmingly concerned about safety. Tesla needs to put safety in the front seat and acceleration, range, charge time etc in the back seat. Instead of aiming for a lower cost-per-mile "from day one", how about designing a truck that is safe? As it stands now, the Tesla semi looks like a death trap.

-The large low windshield will allow a deer or cow to breach the cab in a 70 mph collision
-No roll cage
-No fire suppression
-No anti-icing
-No 4-way seatbelt harness
-Center seating allows no way for a driver to climb out of the cab after a rollover
-The hinges on the suicide doors will jam shut in a forward motion side swipe.
-The windshield is not reachable from the drivers seat, leaving no way to wipe it with a rag when it fogs after the defroster fuse blows
-Who told Elon that traction control on the tractor will eliminate jackknifes?
-Drive wheel fairings look like they will get in the way when trying to chain-up in the middle of the night in the wind and sub-zero weather
-No "T" handle for the trailer brakes
-No headache rack


I'm all for saving the environment. But the trucking industry is in desperate need of a safety revolution first. Here're some ideas:

-a button I can push in bad weather that jerks one of the drive tires and reads out on a display how much traction I have available
-an audio announcement I can have in bad weather at night that tells me when I am about to cross a bridge so I can line-up and "float" across the ice
-a powered 5th-wheel with axle weight sensors so I can properly balance the trailer and load the drives without having to use a CAT scale
-I need a display showing air temperature, road temperature and dew point
-I need cruise control that can switch between maintaining a set speed or maintaining a set tension on the tires
-I need a mixer for the trailer brakes that I can set according to the load in the trailer
-I need voice controlled access to road conditions and cams WYDOT Travel Information Service (Laramie)
-Is there any technology that could help detect black ice?
-I'd like an audible warning if the trailer loses tracking with the tractor
-I'd like automatic trailer ejection if the rig is blowing over in a wind gust


I am also concerned about driver fatigue. The Tesla semi suspension is not hinged the front of the cab like other tractors. This means the ride is going to be much rougher since there are only two suspensions (chassis and seat) instead of three (chassis, cab and seat).

The trucking industry needs a safety revolution. Tesla should lead with safety, not electrification. It's what the silent 97% of the market wants.

Drive safe...

jack

Jack:

I'm also somewhat involved in the trucking industry, and looking past all the hype, An all-electric is completely impractical. First, it make no sense for long haul, as where are you going to re-charge on your way from the port in NY to Chicago? For short haul and regional, the costs of similar all-electric vehicles (city buses, etc) are wildly more expensive and completely out of range of the range of the fleet owners you mention unless they get massive government subsidies.

This comes down to a basic principal of product design "Just because it's technically possible to build something, doesn't mean you should". I think it's just another smoke screen by Elon to divert attention away from the very real problems that Tesla has. With him, it's all about making sure people have the Kool-Aid to keep drinking.

 

[KarenRei]

Is the Nikola 1 project dead?

It's nonsense that changes every six months, so might as well. None of their numbers add up. My favourite was the concept that they're going to give out a million miles of free hydrogen (something that would cost more than the entire trucks themselves).

In the EV world, we're used to "wannabe" companies that spring up, struggle mightily to get attention for a while, then die when they don't get anywhere near the actual capital needed to compete in this extremely capital-intensive industry. Nikola has all of the classic signs. Heck, they even ripped their name off of Tesla, and their CEO seems to have an unhealthy obsession with Musk.

Yesterday we traveled 540 miles round trip with four trucks to pickup cattle, we were empty (about 35,000lb) going there and loaded around 100,000lb coming home.

Should be able to make it, but it'd be tight. A brief charging session would be advisable.

With hydrogen specs and claims from Nikola 1 this trip would have been no different than what we did.

With Nikola 1 you'd first have to find the portal into an alternate dimension where Nikola's numbers actually made sense and where they actually had the necessary investment capital.

as where are you going to re-charge on your way from the port in NY to Chicago?

The new network of megachargers that is a cornerstone of Tesla's announcement? Not sure how you missed that part.

Given the requirements of no more than a 14 hour driving period / 11 hours spent driving per period / min. 30 minutes break no more than 8 hours in = no daily slowdown from a 30 minute megacharging session (~900 miles per day with 1 30 minute session, at 60mph = 15 hours = well more than you can drive = may as well drive faster where speed limits allow, your "fuel" is cheap... faster = more throughput). And Tesla does have a reputation of delivering on fast charging availability (see the supercharger network)

, the costs of similar all-electric vehicles (city buses, etc) are wildly more expensive and completely out of range of the range of the fleet owners

In case you haven't noticed, Tesla's stats always tend to hugely outcompete anything else on the market. Compare the stats (incl. price) on, say, the Tesla Model 3 to the BMW i3. And I guarantee you Tesla is making a larger margin on it, too. There are serious competitive advantages to having invested a huge amount of capital into mass production of EV components.

More to the point, it's "fleet owners" who worked with Tesla in the design process (and had orders ready to go at the unveiling), so one presumes they know what they can and can't afford.

 

[WannabeOwner]

where are you going to re-charge on your way from the port in NY to Chicago?

Tesla Megacharger - 30 minutes stop time every 400 miles - $0.07 per kWh (about $0.035 per mile) or am I answering the wrong question?

Don't know what the rules are in USA, but over here drivers have to stop for "rest break" and a 400 mile / 6 hours drive about fits in with that (we have spy-in-the-cab logging to enforce that)

Sure, Megachargers don't exist yet - but that was also true of Superchargers when the cars first came out.

wildly more expensive and completely out of range of the range of the fleet owners you mention unless they get massive government subsidies.

I'm not adverse to that, but no doubt opinions will vary, New Tech needs help until it becomes competitive

But that subsidy can also be justified as reducing pollution / saving healthcare related costs

Initially: Move the pollution out-of-town (coal power e.g. power station)
Subsequently: Generate the power more cleanly on the longer term.

 

[Farmertom]

Jack:

I'm also somewhat involved in the trucking industry, and looking past all the hype, An all-electric is completely impractical. First, it make no sense for long haul, as where are you going to re-charge on your way from the port in NY to Chicago? For short haul and regional, the costs of similar all-electric vehicles (city buses, etc) are wildly more expensive and completely out of range of the range of the fleet owners you mention unless they get massive government subsidies.

Putting recharge stations every hundred miles along major highways shouldn't be a problem and if the range was an actual 500m with a 300m top up in less than an hour long haul trucking could be practical. But I bet you would have an issue achieving 200m on a charge loaded into the wind westbound across 80% of the continental US.

 

[KarenRei]

Also, concerning this:

Here's a professional's quick take (apologies if it's already been posted):
This ex-trucker has some questions about the Tesla Semi
Robin

I think it's great to hear truckers' reactions, but it would be nice if they would take the time to talk with Tesla people to learn more about the vehicles. In particular, his main complaints:

* You won't be able to see everywhere on your vehicles: The vehicles are covered with cameras. The odds that Tesla is going to leave glaring blind spots is zero.

* A centre seating position will give you poorer ability to know if there's a car in the way when passing: Ignoring cameras, you have the autopilot situation display:

Semi will certainly have something at least to those standards.

* The screens will be too bright at night: He apparently doesn't know about night mode.

* Truckers don't sit around for 15 minutes when fueling, they do stuff for 15 minutes: I actually don't even understand this one. It's 15 minutes either way.

* Physics says you can't prevent jackknifing: Man, I hate it when people who know nothing about physics insist "physics says....".

 

[KarenRei]

Putting recharge stations every hundred miles along major highways shouldn't be a problem and if the range was an actual 500m with a 300m top up in less than an hour long haul trucking could be practical. But I bet you would have an issue achieving 200m on a charge loaded into the wind westbound across 80% of the continental US.

1) 500mi range is for 80k lb gross weight.

2) The aero / rolling drag ratio is lower for freight vehicles than for passenger vehicles.

It's funny all of the non-EV people who think that X or Y will reduce your range to 40% or less in normal real-world driving conditions, that you're just going to randomly be surprised with a 500 mile vehicle unexpectedly going 200. It just doesn't happen. Yes, you can artificially "create" conditions to slash your range like racing on a track or driving across a lava field or whatnot - but you never just "stumble into" situations that cut your range to 40%. Furthermore, even if you did:

3) You can always extend your range just by driving slower. Slowing down has a greater impact on EVs than ICEs.

4) Charging stations aren't spaced apart to the point that you have to leave with a full charge and nearly run out to reach the next one. Superchargers average something like 70 miles apart in the US (less in less densely populated areas, more in more densely populated areas). I expect megachargers to be spaced perhaps 120 miles or so apart.

 

[Farmertom]

You work for Tesla by any chance KarenRie?

 

[KarenRei]

You work for Tesla by any chance KarenRie?

No. But you may have noticed the website that you're on - Tesla Motors Club - and suspected that the sort of people who hang out here tend to follow information about Teslas.