Tesla to make "exciting announcement on Thursday" (correction Tuesday)

[T@oo]

Has cell manufacturing been mentioned? Would be quite obvious to me. The have the fab space (Freemont is mostly empty). Move the cell making inhouse.

- secure supply and make it predictable
- no need to renegotiate the supply every now and then
- add to the value chain
- produce cells for tesla (automotive) and SolarCity (local storage) or even third party
- refurbish used packs
- licence current cell tech from Panasonic and do a joint venture with them for future development

 

[Zzzz...]

Actually, I believe the plan is to terraform and the process of changing the atmosphere would raise the temperature.

You can just use solar panels and batteries. After all, it's been estimated that just by putting solar panels on all residential roofs it'd meet 2/3 of USA electricity demand and that current demand includes a lot of inefficiency. Now consider that a colony would be starting from scratch and that means you'd be able to use best practice and you'd dramatically cut energy demand.

Plus, Mars has much lower gravity which would make getting around a lot easier.

Solar sucks on Mars because any panel there will produce 2.32 times less power then on Earth on average. Going farther, Europa, Pluto - solar is impossible to use at all. And we might want to have a habitable stations there.

And there is nothing wrong with nuclear reactors...

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Has cell manufacturing been mentioned? Would be quite obvious to me. The have the fab space (Freemont is mostly empty). Move the cell making inhouse.

- secure supply and make it predictable
- no need to renegotiate the supply every now and then
- add to the value chain
- produce cells for tesla (automotive) and SolarCity (local storage) or even third party
- refurbish used packs
- licence current cell tech from Panasonic and do a joint venture with them for future development

I wish this was the case! Insourcing cells production would be an awesome news. But I frankly do not believe Tesla have free capital large enough to invest into such plant. And wont have it for quite some time. BTW, there are tons of companies you can license li-ion cell tech from, not necessarily Panasonic. Envia System, California Lithium Battery etc and so on..

 

[Zythryn]

Actually, I believe the plan is to terraform and the process of changing the atmosphere would raise the temperature.
...

We are already doing that.
...
OH! You mean on Mars!

 

[Bearman]

Solar sucks on Mars because any panel there will produce 2.32 times less power then on Earth on average. Going farther, Europa, Pluto - solar is impossible to use at all. And we might want to have a habitable stations there.

Solar insolation (the amount of solar radiation that reaches Mars) is about 42% of that on Earth, since Mars is about 52% farther from the Sun and insolation falls off as the square of distance. But the thin atmosphere would allow almost all of that energy to reach the surface as compared to Earth, where the atmosphere absorbs roughly a quarter of the solar radiation.

 

[aznt1217]

Anyone know how much money he has? I mean, in liquid funds? I imagine it isn't a lot considering the salary he makes at his companies. I wonder what the number is, $50 million? $100 million? That would help us figure out how much he is likely to risk on whatever this announcement is. And it could possibly eliminate some of these theories (he certainly isn't privately funding Gen III on $5 million).

Actually not too sure how liquid he is because he didn't exercise his options. He pretty much poured all of his money into Tesla (which I believe is a little over 100 million), after watching the Bloomberg Risktakers Profile on Elon, it seemed like he poured every cent he had into the company. I believe his salary is only $33k at Tesla and he just bought the Bel Air Mansion so I can't imagine he has significant liquid funds (to change course of the company).

I really don't buy this whole him putting his personal money into the company statement solely because the idiom is used all the time. It's more than likely a product related announcement or a partnership announcement.

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We are already doing that.
...
OH! You mean on Mars!

I think the plan goes like this: Terraform Mars to convert all the Carbon Dioxide into Oxygen for human life. Then Humans would heat the planet up (like we do on earth) which would in turn change the atmosphere on Mars and make it more inhabitable naturally.

 

[vfx]

Solar insolation (the amount of solar radiation .... But the thin atmosphere would allow almost all of that energy to reach the surface as compared to Earth, where the atmosphere absorbs roughly a quarter of the solar radiation.

Except Elon wants to terraform Mars...

 

[Bearman]

Except Elon wants to terraform Mars...

Of course but that will take some time and then one will use what ever future technology we have that is suitable.

 

[jvonbokel]

after watching the Bloomberg Risktakers Profile on Elon, it seemed like he poured every cent he had into the company. I believe his salary is only $33k at Tesla and he just bought the Bel Air Mansion so I can't imagine he has significant liquid funds (to change course of the company).

He invested so much in Tesla/SpaceX that he came close to bankruptcy, and Tesla doesn't pay him much directly, but we don't know what he's made from SpaceX. He probably owns a larger portion of SpaceX, and they've probably become quite profitable recently.

 

[Bresson]

Elon Musk starts a Tesla rental car company and goes public with it to raise money.
-Offices and rentalcars where the superchargers are.
-As a customer you can switch cars instead of charging them. No waiting time.
-No fuel-costs when you hire a model S.

 

[sp4rk]

He invested so much in Tesla/SpaceX that he came close to bankruptcy, and Tesla doesn't pay him much directly, but we don't know what he's made from SpaceX. He probably owns a larger portion of SpaceX, and they've probably become quite profitable recently.

Why is he always introduced, then, as a billionaire. I always assumed stock in companies but not liquid capital.

 

[shady]

Elon Musk starts a Tesla rental car company and goes public with it to raise money.
-Offices and rentalcars where the superchargers are.
-As a customer you can switch cars instead of charging them. No waiting time.
-No fuel-costs when you hire a model S.

Yes, but unless you purchase the "charge" option, you have to return the car with a full charge

 

[Cheerose]

Maybe this is the announcement - Mercedes unveils Tesla-powered electric car

 

[Yuri_G]

Maybe this is the announcement - Mercedes unveils Tesla-powered electric car

Nope, the B-Class partnership has been known about for a while now.

 

[jvonbokel]

Why is he always introduced, then, as a billionaire. I always assumed stock in companies but not liquid capital.

Sorry, poor word choice on my part. I don't think Elon himself was ever close to filing for bankruptcy, but he was very cash poor for a while, taking out personal loans from friends to cover his living expenses. All his capital was tied up in Tesla, SpaceX, etc*.

Forbes estimates his net worth at $2.7B. They say he owns 29% of Tesla. Wikipedia says 32%, MSN Money says 23.8% (plus 28.3% of SolarCity). Regardless of which number is correct (if any), they'd all represent $1B+ in value given current market capitalization of 4.37B.

*Incidentally this was also around the time he was negotiating the terms of his divorce from his first wife. I personally don't think this was deliberate, but some would argue that case.

 

[NielsChr]

1. Needs to start series production and be delivered to the first paying customers by the end of 2012.
2. Have to be certified by NHTSA with a four- or five-star safety rating and it has to have seven seats.
3. Needs to be priced at $57,400 (for the base model with the 160-mile range), $67,400 (230 miles) and $87,400 (300 miles).
4. [The Model S] has to have a battery pack that allows en-route swapping at a highway roadside station, similar to the Better Place battery swapping scheme.

maybe his missing the last part....if one are picky about it - SC aren't exactly battery swapping, and it will not come.

 

[Banahogg]

There's some interesting bits about battery swapping in their latest 10-K: Battery Swapping/Rental for the Model S - Page 6

I believe they had to demonstrate that it was possible for one of the CA certifications.

 

[PopSmith]

Nope, the B-Class partnership has been known about for a while now.

That's correct. In fact, Autoweek had an article confirming the B-Class EV clear back in July of 2012. Here is the article.

 

[cdabel]

I think it might indeed be related to the Phinergy article mentioned earlier in the thread. Phinergy 1000-Mile Aluminum-Air Battery: On The Road In 2017?

Elon´s recent Tweets about Gen III being 3 to 4 years away, with "cool tech we can´t talk about yet" matches up with the article´s mention of "a contract with a global automaker to deliver production volumes of the device starting in 2017." Later in the article the company says it recently received funding for a pilot project from the Israeli gov´t, "among other sources".

 

[SteveG3]

cdabel, hadn't noticed the funding... "among other sources," but I've been thinking the same, especially 2017 matching up with Tesla, and Elon tweeting Sunday about new tech he can't talk about yet. I think it's an exciting prospect, though it takes time to see what can actually be commercialized.

I think it might indeed be related to the Phinergy article mentioned earlier in the thread. Phinergy 1000-Mile Aluminum-Air Battery: On The Road In 2017?

Elon´s recent Tweets about Gen III being 3 to 4 years away, with "cool tech we can´t talk about yet" matches up with the article´s mention of "a contract with a global automaker to deliver production volumes of the device starting in 2017." Later in the article the company says it recently received funding for a pilot project from the Israeli gov´t, "among other sources".

 

[Yggdrasill]

I think it might indeed be related to the Phinergy article mentioned earlier in the thread. Phinergy 1000-Mile Aluminum-Air Battery: On The Road In 2017?

Elon´s recent Tweets about Gen III being 3 to 4 years away, with "cool tech we can´t talk about yet" matches up with the article´s mention of "a contract with a global automaker to deliver production volumes of the device starting in 2017." Later in the article the company says it recently received funding for a pilot project from the Israeli gov´t, "among other sources".

I would just like to mention that the greencar report article mentions figures that are incompatible. Aluminium contains around 8 kWh per kg, while they believe the car contains 50 plates with 7 kWh each. That means each plate would need to weigh at least 875 grams, and the battery would weigh 44 kg in aluminium alone. That is incompatible with the stated weight of 25 kg.

I believe the battery contains 25 kg of aluminium, and each plate is 500 grams. The battery pack weight is unknown, but probably somewhere in the 50-75 kg range. This would mean a total capacity of 200 kWh, which in a small car like the one shown might work out to around 1000 miles range. In a Model S the battery would be more like 600 miles.

It's also important to remember that we are not talking about free energy. The production of aluminium is only around 60% efficient, and then there are all the associated losses. I would expect a cost per kWh on an aluminium-air pack to be no less than $0.45/kWh. This is fine if you basically never use it, but if you never use it, why haul around 50 (?) kg of dead weight?

I think Tesla is committed to the SuperCharger technology, so I would be *very* surprised if the announcement had anything to do with Phinergy.