Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[smorgasbord]

lol, thanks and...yes that's exactly what was mentioned. I'm a long-term hold value investor. A lot of the discussion points I have are...

1. Don't touch TSLA.
2. Seriously, don't touch TSLA.
3. Do something with your mutual funds.
4. Help me w/ taxes plz.
5. Help me w/ donations + taxes plz.
6. Help me w/ standard withdrawal rates plz.
7. Get me to a preferred track w/ the S&P post-TSLA plz.

...and a few others .

Sounds like you need an accountant more than a financial advisor.

Financial advisors just don't do what people want them to do because they're extremely risk-averse. They're protecting themselves from lawsuits and the like. They'd rather you lose to the S&P by a percentage point a year than actually try to do better and then maybe go down for several months at a time.

Most financial advisors do worse than the S&P. Most actively managed funds do worse than the S&P. There are all sorts of articles to read on this. Here's one: The Dirty Little Secret Investment Advisors Don't Want You To Know

 

[dakh]

My first over-20 bagger.. This is some nutty stuff, I'm glad I didn't de-leverage this one yet. Certainly getting some pings and needles to sell a bit and diversify, at least in the 401K account. So far sold a couple small batches to buy "schmuck insurance" (GBTC and GLD). Now that I hit my target for that, the problem is simple: I highly doubt there's anything to diversify into that would hold a candle to just staying in TSLA. So any diversification will feel like setting up for a loss/disappointment. But.. have... to... do.. it... ugh.

 

[goinfraftw]

Sounds like you need an accountant more than a financial advisor.

Financial advisors just don't do what people want them to do because they're extremely risk-averse. They're protecting themselves from lawsuits and the like. They'd rather you lose to the S&P by a percentage point a year than actually try to do better and then maybe go down for several months at a time.

Most financial advisors do worse than the S&P. Most actively managed funds do worse than the S&P. There are all sorts of articles to read on this. Here's one: The Dirty Little Secret Investment Advisors Don't Want You To Know

Awesome, thanks! Very informative - I'll keep on reading through other articles as well

 

[MP3Mike]

The 6-mth moving average Mkt Cap for TSLA is $109.012 B as of today's Close. It'll be a while yet.

Can you help me with how the calculation for that works? If I average the closing stock price for the last 6 months (1/8-7/2) I come up with $733.41 * # shares = $135.95B 6-month market cap. Is it based on 180 trading days instead of 6 calendar months?

 

[bpjod]

I can already tell you what a "professional" financial advisor will say. That you are not diversified enough and to sell most of your TSLA in favor of a wider basket of stocks in different sectors. I don't recommend it for most people but everyone has different needs. In case you can't tell, I have a low opinion of all mainstream financial advisors. Many of them don't have a real clue so they just regurgitate "common wisdom".

Good luck with whatever you decide!

This is where it can get difficult. There are a lot of different financial investment tools. There are also a number of different income streams one can turn one's investments into. Adding money to them is easy. Figuring out the best way to withdraw from them when the money is required is a whole different mess. I've been searching for good books to educate myself on this topic, but it's challenging. Even more so that I'm in Canada which is a smaller market (i.e. purchasers of such books), so even fewer resources are available. I'm happy to pay my fair share of taxes, but if one strategy of withdrawing my funds results in many 10's (or 100's?!) of thousands of dollars more taxes paid over my lifetime than a different strategy, then I want to make sure I'm pursuing the best strategy.

I think a tax accountant (experienced in dealing with larger portfolios, as opposed to one who cranks out a high volume of tax returns daily) would likely be the best advisor for these kind of problems. Someone who looks at the classes of investments and how to minimize the taxes on these investments, rather than a financial planner who's interest is in looking at your portfolio and advising on how they think it should be balanced/diversified.

As I start to think about possible retirement in a few short years, I've come to realize that accumulating wealth and living off that wealth are two very different things (and mindsets).

 

[Mo City]

What I was wondering is if BI times most Tesla-related articles to come out while TSLA is on another upward swing, in an effort to defeat the upward trajectory.

I doubt it's to defeat the upward trajectory, but they realize people are more inclined to click an article on Tesla when the stock pops (or drops) hard.

In other words, I'm certain they time articles but doubt there is malicious intent. Perhaps negative/skeptical/sensational articles on Tesla get more clicks.

 

[Yoona]

And while talk of early retirements, islands, Roadsters, etc is great fun, remember that we're very fortunate and a lot of folks aren't. Spread some love around with your good fortune. Send a Tesla to a friend or family member. Join our Kiva team. Whatever floats your boat. Just do something positive.

Exactly my sentiment. Buy a struggling family a week's worth of groceries. Replace a poor kid's PC with a nice MacBook. The best part in making money is not just sharing it, but seeing the happiness in others.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Not a tax pro and didn't even stay at the right hotel, but my understanding is we need to pay 110% of last year's taxes and then we're good. I'm adjusting my W4 now for extra withdrawals. Basically (taxes from last year) * 1.1 / 8 where 8 is the number of pay periods remaining.

Correct, if your AGI is over $150,000.

 

[Cobbler]

Exactly my sentiment. Buy a struggling family a week's worth of groceries. Replace a poor kid's PC with a nice MacBook. The best part in making money is not just sharing it, but seeing the happiness in others.

I'll setup a GoFundMe for TeslaCharts so he could afford some food on the table after all the money he's lost after shorting Tesla.
Imagine the smile on his lovely face when he realizes $TSLA fans still care about him

....


Just kidding, I'll donate to Omar instead to support his legal defence against Greenspan

 

[generalenthu]

Be careful selling OTM covered calls. It has not worked well the last 2 weeks! I had 2 that I let get exercised at 1100 over the weekend . I have 2 more at 1300 and 1600 that I might have to buy back this week.

Still making lots of money with my shares and long calls

Come on Tim, you of all people should know others don't listen to well-intentioned warnings such as this!

I think both of you missed a key part of what I mentioned. Tesla has to become a boring stock before you implement this strategy. As the old saw goes, you always buy high volatility and sell low volatility. I don't think Tesla volatility implied by options was ever lower than 30% after it passed $30.

Once the analysts wise up and tesla becomes a megacap, I'd think it's safe to write a few far otm calls on a small portion of your holdings and still realize 3-4% in dividend like income. If the price still rallies from there, no problems buying back.

 

[dakh]

Fidelity won't let me set a sell order at $4,269. Says it's too far out from current close. WTF? Is that something I can call and have changed?

Can't edit my previous reply, to add insult to the injury, you can't even do it on calls. They even acknowledged that volatility in options is such that it would make sense to set sell orders way out of the current value, but still, nope, can't do it. Ugh.

 

[EV forever]

Can't edit my previous reply, to add insult to the injury, you can't even do it on calls. They even acknowledged that volatility in options is such that it would make sense to set sell orders way out of the current value, but still, nope, can't do it. Ugh.

I just tried - one of my Jan 985 calls is trading about 425. Fidelity allowed me to set a GTC sell order for 2000! But won't let me put a 4000 order on the stock - message says no more than 50% higher than last trade price.

 

[ggr]

PS. The most recent quarterly rebalancing of S&P 500 was announced on the 4th Monday of June (22). Tyler Tech, Bio-Rad Labs, and Teledyne Technologies replaced Harley-Davidson, Nordstrom (duh), and Alliance Data Systems. I expect TSLA will be added on September 28, 2020.

"Announcements

Announcements of additions and deletions for the S&P 500, S&P MidCap 400, and S&P SmallCap 600 are made at 05:15 PM Eastern Time. Press releases are posted on our Web site, www.spdji.com, and are released to major news services."
ref: https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/d...odology-sp-us-indices.pdf?force_download=true

Are you implying that the 4th Monday is a thing? Tesla is most likely to do the Q2 earnings on Weds 22nd, so the 27th might be an announcement?

 

[StealthP3D]

Congrats to all Tesla longs! I’m kind of retired because of the appreciation of the stock but I have been really bored so I started a YouTube channel on food reviews. In it I will be featuring my Tesla often, promoting the brand, and doing food reviews at Tesla superchargers. If you are interested here is a link to my first video where I show my Tesla.

You missed your chance to notice the white Model 3 parked right across from the entrance of the Wild Chicken! They are everywhere!

I get it. Your show is about food. OK.

 

[mickle]

With these stock prices and this demand for TSLA I think Tesla should do a capital raise ($10 billion?) and use that capital to build several gigafactories simultaneously and develop even more (cheaper) models. That will have the ICE manufacturers shivering.

I am wondering about this too. The ARK analysis page Tesla Price Target: Tesla's Potential Trajectory During the Next Five Years says:

In all cases, except those in which it either is denied access to the capital markets or is bankrupt, we assume that Tesla issues $10 billion in equity capital to scale production at an accelerated rate and capitalize on its competitive advantages.​

What if they were to time this raise to a few minutes after S&P inclusion is announced and issue shares a day or two later. That would give funds a new source of shares to acquire without needing to buy on the open market. Seems like it would be ideal, but I don't know much about how this stuff works.

 

[wipster]

Hey, has it been announced when the 2nd qtr financial presentation will be? Checked the IR site but nothing was posted.

Want to make sure I can take time out of my busy schedule of watching and posting on this and the Klipsch forum to listen in.

No Wipster, it hasn't been announced yet, but based on prior quarterly financial presentations, I would bet it will be on Wednesday July 29th.

I'm welcome.

 

[NicoV]

I remember when stock hit 300. It was huge. 400 was tough....

Which one of the times it hit 300? Lot’s of Sparta moments here.

 

[Big Time]

Which one of the times it hit 300? Lot’s of Sparta moments here.

The 1st time

 

[Artful Dodger]

Can you help me with how the calculation for that works? If I average the closing stock price for the last 6 months (1/8-7/2) I come up with $733.41 * # shares = $135.95B 6-month market cap. Is it based on 180 trading days instead of 6 calendar months?

How many shares are you using? The exact number of shares outstanding is in the 10-Q report. And for which date did you allocate the 3.3M shares from this Spring's Cap raise?

The CEO compensation plan specifies two periods: 1 calendar month and 6 calendar months, so for example today would use the Closing SP beginning on Jan 7, 2020, which is currently the past 126 trading sessions.

It's easiest to calculate the End-of-Day Mkt Cap each day, then calculate a simple average Mkt Cap for the period(s) in question, in our case 1- and 6-mths. HTH.

Cheers!

 

[chrsk]

So 1390 in early premarket in Germany. Does anyone want to guess where it goes from here?