Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SOULPEDL]

I think it will go back and forth a bit longer. Bears will claim demand is falling and that we will see it in the Q1 numbers. Bears and bulls are tenacious in this stock. I'd say once we get to Q3 and Q4 2019 and still profitable then the shorts will get squeezed. Long TSLA calls and stock myself.

You can count on it, they count on it, and I'm going to count on it. That's what makes this horse buck so hard. Only this time, I'm skimming a bit (not much, just some). I have a small sell at $353 and we'll go from there. I'm overweight anyway with the rest in cash - for dooms day in case some idiot shuts down the global economy next.

 

[neroden]

If there is a general consensus that Trump is going to declare his contrived national imergency tomorrow night, I think that will weigh on markets all day. If he actually calls an emergency, it will be bad for markets for a while. Can TSLA move counter to a downward trend?

I think it depends on how he does it.

If he simply redirects part of the military budget to building walls on government owned land, everyone will roll their eyes, but no big impact. That money was being wasted in random places anyway, and nobody really cares if where it's wasted changes.

If he starts trying to seize private land by eminent domain to build walls, there will be a massive uproar and markets will tank.

If he starts spending money with no plausible legal authorization, he'll immediately be sued, there will be an immediate temporary injunction, and nothing will happen in the markets for a bit longer.

 

[anthonyj]

How many more times do you think TSLA is going to hit that 380ish resistance before it breaks through? 10 more? There isn't any buying pressure in that part of the range. Just violent selling whenever TSLA reaches it. Maybe need Model Y reveal or FSD to bust through

 

[Cherry Wine]

Well yea, of course. There have been hundreds before this one, and there'll be hundreds more. The "climax" of the Tesla story never climaxes - it just keeps getting better!

So it’s a tantric story?

 

[Cherry Wine]

If there is a general consensus that Trump is going to declare his contrived national imergency tomorrow night, I think that will weigh on markets all day. If he actually calls an emergency, it will be bad for markets for a while. Can TSLA move counter to a downward trend?

Doubtful.

 

[neroden]

How many more times do you think TSLA is going to hit that 380ish resistance before it breaks through? 10 more? There isn't any buying pressure in that part of the range. Just violent selling whenever TSLA reaches it. Maybe need Model Y reveal or FSD to bust through

Nah. It's gonna be more financial than that. It'll be one of the financial reports (maybe Q2 or Q3) or the S&P 500 addition.

 

[Cherry Wine]

How many more times do you think TSLA is going to hit that 380ish resistance before it breaks through? 10 more? There isn't any buying pressure in that part of the range. Just violent selling whenever TSLA reaches it. Maybe need Model Y reveal or FSD to bust through

If the stock can ride positive macro sentiment into Q4 earnings (and the earnings are as good, and guidance is as good, as many here hope) I think it will break $380.

If macros are bad but earnings/guidance are good then we’re probably stuck in the $300s until we get another positive catalyst or two, whatever those may be. The list is long.

Or it may take a conjunction of a sharp bear market rally plus some positive TSLA-specific news.

 

[SOULPEDL]

If there is a general consensus that Trump is going to declare his contrived national imergency tomorrow night, I think that will weigh on markets all day. If he actually calls an emergency, it will be bad for markets for a while. Can TSLA move counter to a downward trend?

I think most will view it as a chess move without any clear change in the game. But when people think that other people will be alarmed, that on it's own could spur a drop.... then come right back by Friday... the earnings music is too near to be left without a chair.

 

[SOULPEDL]

If the stock can ride positive macro sentiment into Q4 earnings (and the earnings are as good, and guidance is as good, as many here hope) I think it will break $380.

If macros are bad but earnings/guidance are good then we’re probably stuck in the $300s until we get another positive catalyst or two, whatever those may be. The list is long.

Or it may take a conjunction of a sharp bear market rally plus some positive TSLA-specific news.

In other words, anything is possible.

 

[SOULPEDL]

If he starts spending money with no plausible legal authorization, he'll immediately be sued, there will be an immediate temporary injunction, and nothing will happen in the markets for a bit longer.

Oh, what's another law suit... he's got Guliani

 

[SteveG3]

It's actually a brilliant piece of PR on the part of Shanghai. Because it's Tesla they're dealing with - one of the most controversial story-stocks on Earth - the entire business world will be watching to see how this turns out.

Yes. What's more, with the new information that Tesla's China GF will supply vehicles to other Asian countries, the Chinese also ride Tesla China as part of the process of opening markets to Chinese made vehicles generally. What starts with consumers trying and discovering Chinese made Teslas are outstanding can help wear away resistance outside of China to buying vehicles made in China by what may be presented as Tesla China peers, or some nickname for the emerging Chinese EV manufacturing powerhouse that includes Tesla ("lithium valley," "battery city," or something similar)... basically, halo by association.

 

[Remus]

Has anyone considered that Elon just might be OK if China hacks FSD technology? China is likely very resourceful in getting access to source code etc. Maybe this is one reason why China was OK giving Elon 100% ownership of the Shanghai plant AND funding it.

Maybe automotive is different, but Intel restricts it's high-tech chips from Mfg in China. The CPU wafers are only done in either Israel, Ireland, or USA. Shanghai does the assembly which is basically the easy part and their Wafer FAB is restricted to basics like memory.

Knowing Elon's mission, this might be a higher level deal than anyone realized. The faster everyone goes EV the better (and I agree). Just like wanting to share his patents, he's encouraging the migration to EV... in a hurry.

So the stock shoots through the roof this year as a result, he builds more GFs from HUGE revenue in China, and we all win. Losers will be all the other Auto industries who must see this China friendship as a real concern (besides Tesla).

You have fundamental misunderstanding of how deep learning works. Even if they get all the "source code", without the data pipeline, the training and maintenance pipeline, it's completely useless

 

[Fact Checking]

How many more times do you think TSLA is going to hit that 380ish resistance before it breaks through? 10 more? There isn't any buying pressure in that part of the range. Just violent selling whenever TSLA reaches it. Maybe need Model Y reveal or FSD to bust through

The macro environment alone caused a ~$100 drop of TSLA. We'd be well above $400 today if not for lousy macro.

 

[SteveG3]

Not going to lie, it would be disappointing if the $35k Model 3 will only exist in China.

I don't think you will be disappointed. Delivering the most affordable Model 3 Tesla can is the bullseye of the original secret master plan. Elon takes this sort of stuff very much to heart.

 

[Causalien]

How many more times do you think TSLA is going to hit that 380ish resistance before it breaks through? 10 more? There isn't any buying pressure in that part of the range. Just violent selling whenever TSLA reaches it. Maybe need Model Y reveal or FSD to bust through

I gueestimate santa rally of 2019.

By then the "would be recession" should have worked through the system and we'd be in all-in economic stimulus mode by trump so he can get re-elected. And the market have time to reprice tesla based on 20x eps. Which means it is fairly valued at $300.

 

[Carl Raymond]

You have fundamental misunderstanding of how deep learning works. Even if they get all the "source code", without the data pipeline, the training and maintenance pipeline, it's completely useless

I doubt the source code will ever set foot in China, or in any car for that matter. Only the compiled code resides within the cars.

 

[SteveG3]

While this was the obviously correct decision, there are so many crooks on the Supreme Court now that I have to say I'm relieved.

This is just Exxon trying to hide its internal documents. They're going to have to reveal them. This will reveal that they knew they were causing catastrophic climate damage, concealed it, and lied to the public about it.

This will make the damages cases against Exxon a lot easier to win, though unfortunately it still doesn't guarantee that they will be won. Since the total damages are astronomically high, on a very large number of different theories, I think this just adds another nail to help guarantee the ExxonMobil bankruptcy. I predicted they'd declare bankrupcy before 2030 -- I predicted it quite some years back

semi OT

when I saw this story, my immediate thought was that Exxon will just destroy the most incriminating stuff, but I don't see anyone else raising this as a concern. what are the impediments to Exxon doing this? I get that destroying evidence can be a crime... but, the courts would have to know that the evidence had existed to know it was destroyed.

 

[Carl Raymond]

The macro environment alone caused a ~$100 drop of TSLA. We'd be well above $400 today if not for lousy macro.

Ah yes, but the macros headed south soon after Tesla’s Q3 profit signaled that sustainable transport and energy had reached escape velocity. What percentage of the macro stocks are fossil fuel driven? My tin hat theory is that (a large enough portion of) the market realised that a transition phase was upon us. In the near term Tesla creates its own headwind. Ultimately, all macro stocks currently fossil fueled will be replaced by cleantech driven stocks and Tesla will be king of the hill.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Vgrinshpun is a genius. I would never have figured that one out. (Here I was assuming the benchmark 3-month LIBOR!)

The picture he references doesn't mention 12 month Libor, just LIBOR + Margin. It is highly unlikely for an auto facility with assets paying monthly to base Libor on 12 months. The reference to commercial paper is another give away that they likely use shorter term periods. Many warehouse providers (funders of the tesla warehouse facility) often raise their own money through conduits (warehouses issuing commercial paper notes to then fund the tesla (an other) watehouses). These notes are short term (usually no more than 3 months) and will also be based on a libor matching their tenor, the funders want libor paid on the warehouses they use to fund tesla to match their conduit funding warehouses to minimise basis risk.

 

[BioSehnsucht]

We need a Trump version of the Doomsday Clock...

But how can you tell the hour hand from the minute hand? They're too small to tell the difference!