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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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What’s your definition of crashing the share price?

Like a 1 day 25%+ drop. Like what happened a few month ago to KHC or PCG. It feels to me like a controlled offloading of shares by big holders. I'm sure they will stop it at some point.

EDIT: I mean imagine that you are a big hedge fund manager. Your clients keep asking about the performance and then you join the Jonas call. What's your reaction? If you do nothing, your clients will ask you about it later (like at the end of Q2 or Y2019). Especially that you know what other hedge fund managers will do after the call.
 
Well, I'm glad Elon is still being paid well.

The Highest-Paid C.E.O.s of 2018: A Year So Lucrative, We Had to Redraw Our Chart

At more than 40,000 x average worker salary, Tesla is the most unequal company (in terms of pay) in the United States.

... I just know I've triggered someone! :D
That's a bit unfair. His pay is in stock options and stock went up like crazy from 2017-2018.

Man im taking a beating, average share price is 290 :(. Not sure weather to hold or get out now before it's too late. I mean I used the 5k tesla refunded me on my purchase to buy the stock, but well damn.
Have your opinions on the company itself really changed? If so yeah, if not then why sell? Plus, you don't need to sell everything, you could just sell some to lower exposure.
 
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CNBC would love to have a Tesla executive on the show, especially Elon. Their auto industry reporter Phil LeBeau has said so, while complaining that Tesla will not oblige him. If Elon agreed to appear, CNBC would intensively promote the upcoming interview. If they can't get Tesla to buy advertising, they would at least like to achieve a likely ratings jump from an Elon interview. BTW, I'm retired from a career in TV financial news.

Of course, as we saw last time he did a TV interview, they might, shall we say, creatively edit what’s actually said in said interview before airing.
 
Given the ease with which the stock has continued to be walked down, I don't have a lot of confidence in the $180ish support level. I just don't know that big buyers will suddenly show up at that level vs here. I hope I'm wrong.

the battle at current price levels is still not lost and big buyers already are showing up. the volume is crazy.

Edit: By the way we already almost reached $180 yesterday in Frankfurth. It went up a lot since then.
 
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It seems shorts failed the 190 attack, at lease for now. I don't know if that means anything.
MS doesn't prop trade anymore - sorry to pop your conspiracy bubble - haven't for years.

Not sure about that. I do know car companies are very honest in exhaust tests. Did MS get out of derivative market too? The companies that sell CDS have to short stock or buy Puts to hedge their CDS. Not sure if MS also got out of CDS business. After they sufficiently destroy the stock, they can add out of money Calls to protect from short squeeze. They end up making money three ways: free money from selling CDS, huge profit shorting, then when they close short and switch to long, they make money on the long side plus huge gain on those Calls.

From Jonas's recent language, I think he is being dishonest. At some point MS will tell us Tesla has a 14 trillion dollar addressable market and Tesla is in a dominating position. I could be wrong.
 
What’s you’re definition of crashing the share price?
Like a 1 day 25%+ drop. Like what happened a few month ago to KHC or PCG. It feels to me like a controlled offloading of shares by big holders. I'm sure they will stop it at some point.

EDIT: I mean imagine that you are a big hedge fund manager. Your clients keep asking about the performance and then you join the Jonas call. What's your reaction? If you do nothing, your clients will ask you about it later (like at the end of Q2 or Y2019). Especially that you know what other hedge fund managers will do after the call.
look at the volume over the last 5 days, are we just over run with traders or are any of the shares being bought by long hands? I understand the controlled sales but who’s left with that kind of holdings?
 
Not sure about that. I do know car companies are very honest in exhaust tests. Did MS get out of derivative market too? The companies that sell CDS have to short stock or buy Puts to hedge their CDS. Not sure if MS also got out of CDS business. After they sufficiently destroy the stock, they can add out of money Calls to protect from short squeeze. They end up making money three ways: free money from selling CDS, huge profit shorting, then when they close short and switch to long, they make money on the long side plus huge gain on those Calls.

Holy Conspiracy Theories Batman.

No, MS does not trade credit default swaps on its own books and doesn't profit from the other things you mentioned either.
 
I don't know. But I highly doubt that only short sellers contribute to this SP movement. Institutions are holding 57%+ of TSLA and only 20% of holders are retail investors. Just think about that what happens when they start to sell.

It’s definitely short sellers in full throttle. They are trying to trigger massive sells from institutional air TSLA metrics fall outside of funds strategy requirements.
 
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The stock price is pretty reasonable if one assumes that 1) the robotaxi scheme will not materialize and 2) Tesla Energy will not contribute significantly to the bottom line. I don't think those assumptions are unreasonable for conservative investors given that the projected autonomy timelines have so far appeared almost delusional and there's little to show for the "year of the powerwall and solar roof".

The SP will go up if the company actually walks the walk and doesn't just talk the talk. Getting from cool autonomy features to an actually working robotaxi scheme is a big leap. Until they actually achieve some of the big promises, is is really so unreasonable to be valuated like a rapidly growing premium car company? If so, isn't 30 billion a pretty reasonable valuation at this point in time? For the record, I'm long TSLA.
 
It takes a lot of time for institutions to dump millions of shares on retail without completely crashing the SP. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

While I won't deny that institutional holdings are down substantially, let's not pretend that there isn't another significant amplifier for this drop.

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Of course, as we saw last time he did a TV interview, they might, shall we say, creatively edit what’s actually said in said interview before airing.

I can't speak for CNBC, but we never edited interviews on our show, since they always aired in real time. You may be right, but in that event CNBC likely would never get an encore or advertising from Tesla.
 
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MS doesn't prop trade anymore - sorry to pop your conspiracy bubble - haven't for years.

Firstly, while Morgan Stanley doesn't run a proprietary trading desk anymore, instead they:
  • own huge positions in derivatives such as options the SEC doesn't recognize as prop trading, due to regulation loopholes
  • own hedge funds and mutual funds, which can and do prop trade
Do you really think investment banks are financially disinterested in how individual stocks the stock market change? You are either incredibly naive or you are trying to mislead.

Secondly, nobody but you is talking about a "conspiracy" - we are talking about Morgan Stanley's financial self interest, they earn money through several channels if they correctly predict or help set the price of a security.

Third, Adam Jonas can be an idiot about Tesla without there being a direct financial link as well.
 
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