I'm expecting Q3 and Q4 2020 to be profitable so S&P inclusions could happen anytime in the next 6 months.
While I would like it to happen, it is no certainty...
While it has a significant affect of the share price short term, . the fundamentals of the business and revenue growth are more important.
IMO for it to happen there are 3 key criteria:-
- A good entry price
- The element of surprise
- 100% confidence that an infinity squeeze will not happen.
The element of surprise is to make sure there is not significant front-running, not adding now may be a way to unwind some of that front running.
I don't think the share split and the $5B offering were sufficient to prevent an infinity squeeze, They were not necessarily related to S&P addition we don't know if Tesla has had any negotiations with the committee or how those negotiations went.
I was assuming there might be a quiet agreement that the $5B was just the first installment.(this might be the case)
We have to get used to speculation because people love to speculate, Battery Day has shown us that, and also that speculation can be wrong.
Bottom line S&P addition may never happen, but IMO it will happen when almost no one expects it, if I'm on the committee that is the timing I would pick.
They do run a risk that Battery Day might significantly increase the share price, so moving before Battery Day would be ideal but not at the risk of an infinity squeeze..
Sometimes it is not worth saying up all Christmas Night, it is better to get a good nights sleep and be surprised in the morning.