Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Bet TSLA]

My method is a pretty complex system filled with tons of charts and lines and stuff.
However to clean it up for the unwashed among us it works like this....

First I buy some when ever I have extra money...Then I don't sell.
Later when I have more extra money I buy more....here is the key part...I don't sell.
Some time after that I buy some more....wait for it....that's right I don't sell.

Now after 3.5 years I have a decent amount and even though the price has shot up and I am on paper richer than I have ever been or dreamed I would be....I ain't selling.

My reason for not selling is because I don't need to and I believe this stock has really just started it's run.
When I need something that is expensive (first electric airplane/first electric RV) Then I will sell some and reward myself for being so brilliant.

Now I might sell some to finance my island/Mountain domination plans...but that a secret plan.

You millage will of course vary...if you sold because you need some cash...good for you! If you got out because you felt it just had to be the top...well good for you.

We are all different and what works for some does not work for all....just do you.

As to method, yours is pretty common. There are many Silicon Valley engineers who took the ride up and stayed on it all the way down. They thought it was a brilliant approach while it was working. And afterward they shrugged and went on to ride the next rocket. I've done this. It works fine, mostly, if you are good at finding new rockets to ride and enjoy the adrenaline rush. But now that I'm older and retired I don't have new money coming in all the time from a job, so if I take the ride too far down I'm done. So far with TSLA my account has taken one 90% ride down. I really don't want to repeat that.

 

[Paul_SF]

So far with TSLA my account has taken one 90% ride down. I really don't want to repeat that.

How that 90% ride down happened? Thank you in advance for the reply!

 

[LTC_RRR]

I think it's possible they hit that date in terms of releasing the core re-write code but not adding any new functionality.

The visualizations would be a lot better and smoother (no more vehicles randomly jumping around because the car doesn't understand what it saw in camera 3 is the same car it now sees in camera 2)....and that might improve overall smoothness and behavior in other ways (handling tighter turns, ramps, etc)....but nothing "new" yet.

I think expecting actual new promised features like handling intersections or reverse summon by December fleetwide is.....highly Elonmistic.

Mixing refactoring of the code along with addition of new functionality makes the end result much more risky

 

[mongo]

One data point that is not considered in the above is that Tesla refuses to supercharge some of their very own vehicles due to people restoring salvages! So I think this is a deliberate attempt to open up the chargers - with heavy caveats to be disclosed later on.

The flag to enable Supercharging is stored on the car itself (at least historically). So there is a big difference between a car responding with "I'm not supposed to be charged" and a car not responding at all.

 

[UncaNed]

Mayur Thaker, DFFF @freshjiva (Threadreader)

1. "Tesla's new tabless 'Roadrunner' in-house cell with 1 million mile / 4000 charge cycle capacity will be the final solution to permanently shift cost economics from petrol cars to EVs. 'Battery Day' may go down as one of the most seminal moments in automotive & industrial history."​

2. "If this new cell is made available to only Model S/X, I think they might actually reclaim the value proposition versus 3/Y as it would end up costing less over a 30-yr macrocycle because of its 100-200% greater battery longevity."

3. "It would also be insane to buy any gas car priced above $35k, as it'll bear (-) NPV after considering petrol costs, maint, depreciation, and the fact that you'd burn through 3-4 gas cars during the useful lifespan of a single Roadrunner-powered Tesla Model S."​

PERFECT for resale value, easing frequent replacement by those of means to regularly replace old with new, and perhaps the beginning of practical V2G (please oh pretty please!).

"GIVING IT BACK" was mentioned in the context of trading yesterday. All I could think of is the noble cause of GIVING BACK to Tesla by buying their products and passing along our old Teslas to first time Tesla buyers at more affordable prices.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Nobody's buying an S/X instead of a 3/Y because it's cheaper over a 30 year lifespan thanks to million mile batteries.

Your hubris is showing. Again (Fleet Operators are 'people' too).

How do 300K-mile Teslas hold up? This EV fleet operator has some interesting data

The average american (who IS buying...

Telsa isn't targeting the average American car buyer. Tesla is targeting why people buy cars.

 

[Intl Professor]

AudubonB didn’t forbid us from posting how much our TSLA holdings are worth, he gave an advice. A strong one. And I fully understand his wish to look out for us, for our well-being.

Personally I have no problems with people disclosing those numbers. In fact, I regularly do that myself in the ‘option wheel’ thread

I feel like most of us cannot easily be identified and the information taken advantage of (it certainly feels less exposed to crime than driving around in an expensive car or living in a fancy house). I believe it’s everyone’s own responbility to disclose how much their TSLA shares, leaps and options are worth. Just make sure you don’t share too many personal details (no, my name isn’t Fred).

Is it bragging? I’m sure that’s part of it. But who can blame people for taking some pride in taking the plunge by investing heavily in TSLA when the rest of the world told us we were reckless idiots and would lose it all. We were richly rewarded for believing in Elon’s vision and putting our financial fate in his hands. And for supporting him on his mission with our money (by buying his cars and by keeping investing in his company when the SP went down the drain). That’s something you can be proud of.

Despite a modest state university salary with equivalent retirement, and last purchase in the $750s (pre-split), our purchase price for TSLA remains a smidge under $80 per share (pre-split). I do cheat by ignoring trade prices in a Roth IRA but start with an original total value at $4000, now considerably larger.

 

[Mo City]

$0.24 / watt to cover all other costs and profit. That’s not a lot of margin.

Perhaps the goal is simply to use brute force tactics to increase adoption of solar.

Maybe solar will never be a major profit generator for Tesla but mass adoption is important for the larger mission.

 

[Bet TSLA]

I am of course very S3XY.

Give me a break. You also claim to live in Buffalo. Both of those can't be true at the same time.

 

[TNEVol]

There was some analysis and possibly a thread around 2013 -14 about what kind of car was traded in on MS. It disproved the presumption that it was rich people who wanted the newest thing. It may not be the best approach to rely on historical trends here with respect to Tesla. It is anecdote but my trade in for a 107k P85 was a 2007 Nissan Altima. What sealed the deal for me was the warranty of 8 years and unlimited mileage. This made me feel the ev tech was less risky.
I still have the car with 122k miles and much prefer it to our MS. I will let it go for Ct however because I have to have a truck

 

[traxila]

As to method, yours is pretty common. There are many Silicon Valley engineers who took the ride up and stayed on it all the way down. They thought it was a brilliant approach while it was working. And afterward they shrugged and went on to ride the next rocket. I've done this. It works fine, mostly, if you are good at finding new rockets to ride and enjoy the adrenaline rush. But now that I'm older and retired I don't have new money coming in all the time from a job, so if I take the ride too far down I'm done. So far with TSLA my account has taken one 90% ride down. I really don't want to repeat that.

Are you lightening up on rallies? Selling calls for income? Buying deep OTM puts?

What are you doing as insurance to prevent TSLA from trading at 40?

A possibility which I find extreme, but yes still a possibility.

 

[SoGA Fan Club]

Because that would favor Tesla because of market share. To your first question: Making a rebate permanent does the same thing.

Statements like these are the exact reason it's taking so long for EVs to gain significant market share. The goal wasn't to be fair to manufacturers or to help manufacturers make money, the goal was to create an industry of EV manufacturing.

Who cares about being fair to Ford or GM, or anyone else when they have chosen not to design and build EVs for the last 10 or 12 years since the tax credit was started. Heck, Ford even took a $5.9 billion loan firm the US government to develop high fuel mileage vehicles. They chose to develop ICE cars instead, which the have since stopped making. Why should Tesla and people living in America suffer for their horrible decision?

It should have been real simple - x number of dollars to be given our in tax credits - and when it was exhausted, it was over, regardless of who sold the most cars, and who made their bets on ICE cars.

 

[Bet TSLA]

How that 90% ride down happened? Thank you in advance for the reply!

Lots of margin, options, and bets that didn't pan out. Approximately end of 1/18 to end of 10/19. TSLA from about 350 to 270. Betting that a stock will go up when it doesn't can get very expensive when you are not simply in shares.

Kinda the same way I've had a 10x run up since then.

 

[bkp_duke]

The flag to enable Supercharging is stored on the car itself (at least historically). So there is a big difference between a car responding with "I'm not supposed to be charged" and a car not responding at all.

It's an aside point, but one I feel needs to be made, but having owned more than one Salvage Tesla, the Supercharging flag being disabled is 100% a money making decision for Tesla, and has nothing to do with "safety" as others have claimed.

How do I know this? Tesla ONLY disables Supercharging on Salvaged S/X cars, not 3's.

What's the difference? S/X have a large percentage of cars with unlimited supercharging. 3s do not, as they are almost all per-per-use supercharging.

 

[Bet TSLA]

Are you lightening up on rallies? Selling calls for income? Buying deep OTM puts?

What are you doing as insurance to prevent TSLA from trading at 40?

A possibility which I find extreme, but yes still a possibility.

The only thing I've changed is that on days when my account is up a lot I remove a chunk from my account, essentially moving it to cash under my mattress. I still maintain some core shares, rather more core option positions for leverage, and regularly bet on short-term short puts for fun. Well, I've also pretty much stopped using much margin.

I have no insurance for TSLA at 40. I'll likely just get out of everything due to excessive pain. On my way down 90% I passed several milestones where I had told myself I would get out, but I didn't because I was sure it was going up soon. I'll try to be smarter this time.

 

[S3XY]

Give me a break. You also claim to live in Buffalo. Both of those can't be true at the same time.

Hey, I'm in perfect shape. Unfortunately that shape is a circle though.

 

[JSML]

Perhaps the goal is simply to use brute force tactics to increase adoption of solar.

Maybe solar will never be a major profit generator for Tesla but mass adoption is important for the larger mission.

Leads me to think Tesla has other plans for monetising solar homes. Will they be selling software somewhat akin to FSD down the road to control energy?

 

[Prunesquallor]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isnt the point of contention here whether a 1 MM battery will increase the appeal of S&X? As long as they feel compelled now to buy one for the superior tech under the floor board, that will bring direct and immediate benefit to revenue. In 5 years, when they want the new best thing, will Tesla be there, as a leader still, to service their needs? I hear and agree with what you are saying, but I'm not getting how the 2 things are related.

Seems to me 4000 cycle battery only makes sense for
1) Robotaxi
2) Vehicle-to-Grid

Having them only in S&X doesn’t make too much sense for 1). I wouldn’t think those were the prime Robotaxi candidates.

In any case, it illustrates Tesla's confidence in those two future applications.

 

[ZeApelido]

I had to

https://twitter.com/data_ev/status/1305184648222236672?s=20

 

[mrmage]

...which means they'll keep replacing it every few years with the new "best" thing.

Which is what they've been doing for the entire history of cars, and nobody's presented any argument why they'll change once EV batteries last longer.

Long lasting batteries enable new features, like v2g, higher resale value, lower leasing cost, and battery reuse. These features are desirable to the wealthy or not. In a zero interest rate environment, a battery that lasts 3x longer is 1/3 the price.

Nature very efficiently recycles everything. Mankind not so much, especially modern products. But with batteries and electric motors that work nearly like new a decade later, we may finally be on our way to greater sustainability. Consumers who do not care about sustainability benefit from lower lifetime cost, just like how solar power can be installed for “free” by paying back from the monthly savings.

I don’t often buy new cars - my 400h is 16 yo, my TT is over 20. However, I’ll swap my X out in a heartbeat for V2G and more range, especially if the total lifetime cost is lower. It’s a win for everyone.