Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[gabeincal]

Futures are very strong!

 

[Mo City]

Futures are very strong!

Yes, scary strong, but too many times I've gone to bed at 2:00am (CDT) and woke up later to TSLA in the red.

 

[wipster]

Yes, scary strong, but too many times I've gone to bed at 2:00am (CDT) and woke up later to TSLA in the red.

Sounds familiar...

 

[gabeincal]

I just need a little green Mon or Tue to pay off my margin call with a Sep 18 call that would shoot up in price. Otherwise I have to sell shares... Got a tad too exposed lately.

 

[gabeincal]

Apparently 2023 contracts start trading tomorrow.

 

[Tes La Ferrari]

Yes, scary strong, but too many times I've gone to bed at 2:00am (CDT) and woke up later to TSLA in the red.

Please stay awake. No sleep for you.

 

[gabeincal]

Please stay awake. No sleep for you.

 

[Tim S]

I just need a little green Mon or Tue to pay off my margin call with a Sep 18 call that would shoot up in price. Otherwise I have to sell shares... Got a tad too exposed lately.

I have learned that you can increase your available margin to prevent a margin call by buying extremely cheap puts that will expire worthless (e.g. a Sep 18 $100 put), if you don't want to close any positions immediately. This is a short-term fix and I wouldn't make a habit of it. Not advice. I am no expert.

 

[gabeincal]

I have learned that you can increase your available margin to prevent a margin call by buying extremely cheap puts that will expire worthless (e.g. a Sep 18 $100 put), if you don't want to close any positions immediately. This is a short-term fix and I wouldn't make a habit of it. Not advice. I am no expert.

Very helpful and might just get me out of trouble this time. How do I size the position?

 

[Tim S]

Very helpful and might just get me out of trouble this time. How do I size the position?

Your brokerage might have a calculator to help, or you could call them. I just bought one put for about $5 per contract to see how much my margin call would decrease, and then bought a few more until the call was gone.

My problem was I wrote too many long term puts. I was confident they would expire worthless but if the SP takes a significant dip while you're waiting, they use up a lot of margin.

 

[StealthP3D]

I'm in a similar scenario. My wife won't let me sell our 2006 Lexus R400h, even though she has an X and I drive an S, because the Lexus is still working fine and she has this imaginary situation where we find ourselves suddenly without warning needing to take a long road trip where we can't afford the time to stop and charge. We fight about this every 6 months or so, usually when it's time for me to take it in for an oil change, swap out dead battery, or when I'm paying the insurance bill.

Sell the dog ICE car. I really don't understand having to suddenly take a trip with no time for Supercharging. But if it will ease her mind, show her how many days the money you spend on insurance, oil and batteries could cover car rentals for those mythical "no time for Supercharging" trips you will need to take.

Is she prepping for the zombie apocalypse?

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Apparently 2023 contracts start trading tomorrow.

How do we think they will be priced at open? I'm increasingly tired of the short calls game, I'm already going to owe the IRS more than I can count on five fingers this year.

 

[Tslynk67]

You're making me nervous.. Belgium does not have a capital-gains tax, so I read.. Right?

(Only have been trading actively as of this year, so did not yet have to wonder whether I have to 'declare' anything.. Do I?)

On personal trading accounts, no, but on company trading accounts, yes.

Note that the new government might introduce a capital-gains so placate the socialists in any coalition.

 

[Thekiwi]

Interesting information: https://twitter.com/carsonight/status/1305332657622978560?s=20

doubtful on GF1 supplying Austin factory without a vast expansion in capacity which doesn't seem to be on the cards given commentary by Panasonic. Going forwards it seems more likely all new Tesla factories will have their own Tesla in house battery cell production on site.

 

[MC3OZ]

doubtful on GF1 supplying Austin factory without a vast expansion in capacity which doesn't seem to be on the cards given commentary by Panasonic. Going forwards it seems more likely all new Tesla factories will have their own Tesla in house battery cell production on site.

Looks like GF1 is supplying Austin for the Semi, at least initially...

Austin will definitely make cells for Cybertruck, probably Model 3+Y, and eventually the Semi..

IMO this is simply getting Semi production rolling as quickly as possible.... strong hunch this will be the first product produced by Austi, al signs seem to indicate that.

 

[kengchang]

doubtful on GF1 supplying Austin factory without a vast expansion in capacity which doesn't seem to be on the cards given commentary by Panasonic. Going forwards it seems more likely all new Tesla factories will have their own Tesla in house battery cell production on site.

Giga Nevada's battery pack production is actually higher than Fremont can handle. Tesla will be seeding initial packs to ramp Giga Austin just like Giga Shanghai.

 

[Tslynk67]

How do we think they will be priced at open? I'm increasingly tired of the short calls game, I'm already going to owe the IRS more than I can count on five fingers this year.

They're not "priced" as such, determined by the bid/ask. Last time we had the September 2022's open, the ask was zero, so I put in some low bids, to try my luck, but didn't work. Sill, nothing ventured, nothing gained, eh?

 

[heltok]

https://twitter.com/karpathy/status/1305306119372300290?s=21

I called it =)

I assume the first step for Tesla is to go from 2.5D to 4D labelling of the dataset, but then I think at some point I think they will change the architecture of their neural network from an inception-style CNN to some form of a transformer style network.

https://twitter.com/karpathy/status/1305302243449516032
https://twitter.com/karpathy/status/1305306119372300290

Andrej Karpathy
@karpathy
Transformers
. Specifically, organizing information processing into multiplicative message passing in graphs; generalizing, simplifying, unifying, improving neural nets across domains. For a while there I was growing bit jaded with slowing progress on neural net architectures
2:28 AM · Sep 14, 2020·Twitter Web App

Replying to
@karpathy
feels like a lot is kicked up in dust, and the closest we've come to a full refactor of your typical neural net. stop me if I'm being overly dramatic

 

[Tes La Ferrari]

Will the cold hard reality of the wildfires & smoke hit home for people, & make them think more positively about Investing in green companies, this week - in particular TSLA?

Not referring to the folks that are in the midst of fleeing from this terrible calamity - as they have bigger things to worry about - but the folks that are impacted peripherally by the smoke, and will be making investment decisions this week.

 

[Vad42]

I have learned that you can increase your available margin to prevent a margin call by buying extremely cheap puts that will expire worthless (e.g. a Sep 18 $100 put), if you don't want to close any positions immediately. This is a short-term fix and I wouldn't make a habit of it. Not advice. I am no expert.

Can someone explain why this works? Or point to some links. I don’t get why this reduces the margin.