Correct. That's why I have a 2020 X rather than the 2013 S. The safety improvements alone prompted the trade-in.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
My wife won't let me sell our 2001 Lexus LS430 even though she never drives it. (Currently dead battery, again.) Has >100,000 miles, at street speed actually quieter than our M3, and much better ride. Also, easier entry for me with Parkinson's. Our neighbor has longstanding offer to buy it. One son covets the M3, the other is homeless and couldn't pay for premium fuel for a car that gets 14 mpg in the city. Now that I just think it, haven't talked to her about donation to NPR station or food locker.
For some reason I had the impression that the CATL million-mile battery was LFP -- so along with the million miles it had significantly lower energy density than Nickel-based batteries. If that's correct -- and I'm not sure that it is -- then there would seem to be separate reasons why the product may not be as popular. I just haven't seen any clear statement on the chemistry of the CATL million-mile battery. Though I think the Jeff Dahn/Tesla research was for Nickel-based batteries, so maybe that's the way CATL has gone as well.
You're making me nervous.. Belgium does not have a capital-gains tax, so I read.. Right?
(Only have been trading actively as of this year, so did not yet have to wonder whether I have to 'declare' anything.. Do I?)
tinyrodent
Member
OT
Lol! Cat with Neuralink and Roomba. Bounces around the house all day with stops at the food bowl and cat box.
BTW, is it “Krugerrand” or “The Krugerrand”? Analogous the the eternal “Batman/The Batman” dilemma. Consensus seems to be that enemies prepend “The”, friends are more informal.
In relation to Million Mile Battery, we need to look at the big picture.
ICE vehicles lose 80-90% of their value over 10-15 years due to the following factors:-
Compared to driving a new ICE, driving a 10-15 year ICE is a vastly inferior experience, at times it can border on unpleasant
Driving a 10-15 year old EV is less pleasant than driving new, but there is no substantial loss of power, there is a loss of range.
In fact some may find driving a 10 year old EV more pleasant than driving a new ICE, a 10 year old ICE isn't even in the same galaxy as a 10 year old EV most of the time.
We also have to remember that early EVs in particular Nissan Leafs had serious battery degradation issues which affected resale values.
That narrative has been used against EVs, expensive batteries that wear out, the Million Mile Battery knocks it out of the park.
The we come the the fact that Tesla has 3 different ways of achieving a Million Mile Battery:-
Next we need to consider how we currently need to treat our Tesla Batteries, I typically charge to 50-55% daily in fact I consider if charging to 55% is wise, but it is more convenient. With a Million Mile Battery, most owners will charge to 100% a lot of the time, there is no significant penalty for doing this and teamed up with V2G charging to 100% has lots of advantages.
Finally in relation of Robo-Taxis using off lease cars is a very cheap way for Tesla to build the fleet. So much so that I expect them to make leasing increasingly attractive.
There is one final advantage, combined with tab-less cells, faster charging and lower requirements for thermal management.
Overall I don't think customers will get a choice, a new Tesla will come with a Million Mile Battery and still be good value for money.
However the advantages for the buyer are :-
ICE vehicles lose 80-90% of their value over 10-15 years due to the following factors:-
- Engine wear and tear, loss of power, increasing likelihood of expensive repairs or replacement.
- Wear and tear on other items including expensive transmissions - repairs or replacement.
- Loosening up of the body over times, more body roll.
- Rust
- Aging of the interior including software.
Compared to driving a new ICE, driving a 10-15 year ICE is a vastly inferior experience, at times it can border on unpleasant
Driving a 10-15 year old EV is less pleasant than driving new, but there is no substantial loss of power, there is a loss of range.
In fact some may find driving a 10 year old EV more pleasant than driving a new ICE, a 10 year old ICE isn't even in the same galaxy as a 10 year old EV most of the time.
We also have to remember that early EVs in particular Nissan Leafs had serious battery degradation issues which affected resale values.
That narrative has been used against EVs, expensive batteries that wear out, the Million Mile Battery knocks it out of the park.
The we come the the fact that Tesla has 3 different ways of achieving a Million Mile Battery:-
- Fewer electrolyte additives (cheaper)
- Maxwell DBE (cheaper)
- Single Crystal Electrode (more expensive/supply constrained)
Next we need to consider how we currently need to treat our Tesla Batteries, I typically charge to 50-55% daily in fact I consider if charging to 55% is wise, but it is more convenient. With a Million Mile Battery, most owners will charge to 100% a lot of the time, there is no significant penalty for doing this and teamed up with V2G charging to 100% has lots of advantages.
Finally in relation of Robo-Taxis using off lease cars is a very cheap way for Tesla to build the fleet. So much so that I expect them to make leasing increasingly attractive.
There is one final advantage, combined with tab-less cells, faster charging and lower requirements for thermal management.
Overall I don't think customers will get a choice, a new Tesla will come with a Million Mile Battery and still be good value for money.
However the advantages for the buyer are :-
- Suitable for Robo-taxi use.
- Supports V2G
- Less degradation over time.
- Faster charging
- Don't particularly care about SOC.
- Higher resale value .... (especially after 10-15 years which impacts the resale value at anytime.)
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Krugerrand
Meow
Clearly, if that is the consensus then it’s *The*.
Nasdaq futures up about 1% at start of trading...could be a nice rebound this week from the past 1-2 weeks volatility
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Given average length of (US) new car ownership is less than 7 years- that doesn't appear to be how those who tend to buy new cars feel.... though certainly there's exceptions.
A 15 year old car is usually on its 2nd or 3rd owner, even if it's still running perfectly.
Some certainly do. Others retain their value far better.
I sold my Lexus after 11 years for about 40% of what I originally paid for it- because it was in excellent condition and is from a company already known for building cars that tend to keep running for decades. The person who purchased it is unlikely to have paid me significantly (or any) more if they felt it'd be good for 30 total years instead of 20 though as it's unlikely they'd be keeping it that long either.
As pointed out earlier- Teslas retain their value extremely well without a million mile battery today.
Tesla Model 3 retains almost 90% of its value over 3 years, study shows - Electrek.
Likewise the Model S tops best-in-class resale year after year and has for a good while now.
This is actually a great example of the point.
The leaf is known for having a garbage battery and cooling system- and terrible battery life.
Resale on used ones is terrible. HIlariously awful.
Teslas- on the other hand- are known for having excellent batteries and cooling... and resale is likewise excellent.
All without "million mile" anything.
Because again even 400k miles is far more than 99% of owners keep any vehicle for.
Is that actually true?
Being able to handle 2x as many cycles doesn't seem to be quite the same thing as having issues with sitting at 100% charge.
But even if it is- consider typical driver use cases... the average driver (depending if you prefer mean or median) is doing 10 or 30 miles. Total. In a day.
100% gets them nothing besides a slower charging time for the last 10% of the battery.
It's useful for road trips- but folks already charge to 100% for those.
This again doesn't work at all until FSD is L5. Something all but the most absolutely all-in-kool-aid folks agree probably shouldn't be in any financial modeling of the company right now given it could come a year from now (which is the most optimistic estimate Elon has given recently) to 5 years from now to...never (with current sensors anyway).
It's good enough for MiC Model 3s (the non-million-mile version).
If "million mile" was the important part seems Tesla'd be happy to pay the bit extra for it.
It's not though.
Build em cheaper (because many who want a tesla today can't afford one)
And build a lot more of them faster (because Tesla can't build cars fast enough now to meet demand and batteries are the largest constraint)
Those are the 2 keys Elon specifically called out with battery advancement to move the company forward.
"million mile" is a nice marketing slogan- but not so nice they were willing to pay a few extra bucks to CATL for the MiC3 to have it without those other things that actually mattered (cheaper and in huge volume).
(the fact folks in this thread seem to keep wanting to find reasons to insist MMB is super important, rather than the other 2 things Elon actually said were important, shows you how good it's a marketing slogan though!)
Regarding LFP batteries, they're great. I have one on the table here. It could easily do a million miles as long as it is in a pack rated for 300 miles per charge. The issue is either pack mileage or cycle life. LFP can nicely do 3500 charge cycles. Couple that with a 300 mile range and you have a million mile battery pack.
Tesla does not use these for several reasons (energy density etc) so I see them as practically developing battery technology on several fronts. Better range or more cycles - either way gets to the same goal.
It seems to me that "million mile battery" is the media term that generates buzz but it is more subtle than that and investors should expect to dig a little beyond the headlines. It is a good discussion to digest just what a battery improvement means to investors.
The fact that the batteries have more longevity and don't easily degrade generally means they can get rougher treatment..
The Jeff Dahn team is testing a different temperature ranges...
Changing to 100% each day and some time spent at 100% charge is essential for energy storage batteries.
The aim is to have batteries we can charge to 100% whenever we like with no significant loss of range.
IMO the average length of car ownership derives entirely from the shelf life of ICE cars.
Regardless EVs will have an increasing life as a used vehicle, due to the battery life.
Other things people typically upgrade are Computers and Smart phones, in the case of smart phones cheap batteries are an issue in the case of computers cheap components are an issue. In both cases, software bloat causes the device to slow down and become less usable overtime. Typically phones and computers are around $1,000 and the new version is often faster, has a better camera, a longer battery life, or some other advantage. Manufacturers are good at improving the product to drive more sales and to some extent building products that need regular replacement.
For cars the sum of money spent is much more say $30,000-50,000, and old EV with a working drive-train can be upgraded with new suspension, seats, screens, computers and interiors... Done right the end result is very competitive with a new EV.
It is also the case that V2G may wear the battery at at the same rate, but in that case the customer is extracting extra commercial value form the battery.
As I stated above the Million Mile battery will not add substantially to the pack cost, I still expect Tesla to lower pack costs while extending longevity. Both things will do a lot of Tesla profits and the mission.
it is good to be skeptical and validate our assumptions. but also be realistic about ICE cars, they are old technology heeded rapidly for obsolescence and irrelevance, don't let nostalgia cloud our judgement. Horses and Black and White TV were also good things in their era.
I still like camera film and vinyl records, but I know digital technology is superior, in fact I can't list any case where analogue is superior to digital. in spite of the fact that in theory analogue could be more accurate.
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For LFP the big advantages are :-
- Lower cost
- Different raw materials
Think of V2G and Million Mile battery as an umbrella terms, there may be different implementations with different strengths and weaknesses, but to the general public who doesn't sweat the details, it is the same thing.
All the average car buyer wants to know is:-
- What does the car cost?
- How far does it go on a charge?
- How long does it take to charge?
- What is the warranty?
- How long will the battery last?
Spacep0d
Active Member
Skip marriage, avoid expensive weddings and alimony payments. Invest in TSLA.
A pretty good video from Dave about competition or lack there of. Reasons, superchargers, etc. enjoy.
Long video but a lot of interesting projections and info for future, battery day, etc.
Yeah I am as lost as ever when that man speaks...but I am sure it's good news?
Krugerrand
Meow
I think my idea of Transformers is different than his and frankly, I think mine are way cooler.
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