Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
My wife won't let me sell our 2001 Lexus LS430 even though she never drives it. (Currently dead battery, again.) Has >100,000 miles, at street speed actually quieter than our M3, and much better ride. Also, easier entry for me with Parkinson's. Our neighbor has longstanding offer to buy it. One son covets the M3, the other is homeless and couldn't pay for premium fuel for a car that gets 14 mpg in the city. Now that I just think it, haven't talked to her about donation to NPR station or food locker.
I'm in a similar scenario. My wife won't let me sell our 2006 Lexus R400h, even though she has an X and I drive an S, because the Lexus is still working fine and she has this imaginary situation where we find ourselves suddenly without warning needing to take a long road trip where we can't afford the time to stop and charge. We fight about this every 6 months or so, usually when it's time for me to take it in for an oil change, swap out dead battery, or when I'm paying the insurance bill.
 
I'm in a similar scenario. My wife won't let me sell our 2006 Lexus R400h, even though she has an X and I drive an S, because the Lexus is still working fine and she has this imaginary situation where we find ourselves suddenly without warning needing to take a long road trip where we can't afford the time to stop and charge. We fight about this every 6 months or so, usually when it's time for me to take it in for an oil change, swap out dead battery, or when I'm paying the insurance bill.

Get metromile for the insurance
 
For some reason I had the impression that the CATL million-mile battery was LFP -- so along with the million miles it had significantly lower energy density than Nickel-based batteries. If that's correct -- and I'm not sure that it is -- then there would seem to be separate reasons why the product may not be as popular. I just haven't seen any clear statement on the chemistry of the CATL million-mile battery. Though I think the Jeff Dahn/Tesla research was for Nickel-based batteries, so maybe that's the way CATL has gone as well.
I read somewhere ~3 months ago the reason nobody jumped on buying million mile batteries from CATL is because they are more expensive and Chinese consumers aren't willing to pay.

The "Million Mile Battery" is a great soundbite but I'm not so sure it will cause a surge in consumer demand for Tesla unless they do something like increase the warranty from 100K to 300K miles.
 
I'm in a similar scenario. My wife won't let me sell our 2006 Lexus R400h, even though she has an X and I drive an S, because the Lexus is still working fine and she has this imaginary situation where we find ourselves suddenly without warning needing to take a long road trip where we can't afford the time to stop and charge. We fight about this every 6 months or so, usually when it's time for me to take it in for an oil change, swap out dead battery, or when I'm paying the insurance bill.

Since she wants to keep the Lexus let her pay the insurance and handle maintenance. Problem solved! :)
 
I read somewhere ~3 months ago the reason nobody jumped on buying million mile batteries from CATL is because they are more expensive and Chinese consumers aren't willing to pay.

The "Million Mile Battery" is a great soundbite but I'm not so sure it will cause a surge in consumer demand for Tesla unless they do something like increase the warranty from 100K to 300K miles.

Tesla probably isn't try to cause a surge in consumer demand, the main initial targets are:-
  • Robo-Taxis
  • Energy storage - longevity is part of the ROI calculation.
For private cars the aim is a better product for around the same money.

The CATL "Million Mile" Battery was 10% more expensive according to "The Limiting Factor"

The Tesla "Million Mile" Battery should be the same price as a current battery, that is because it is part of a whole raft of changes at Battery Day.

We don't know what it will cost, but there is no reason to assume the same markup as CATL.
 
  • Helpful
Reactions: Boomer19
That is one argument, but the converse is that Tesla buyers, by their nature, are tech savvy buyers and WANT those features.

I know for sure that not having AP on the P85 is driving me bonkers. I love long road trips, but no longer want to take the P85 for those.

I am not talking about the now. The new car buyers of today nor the 3 year off lease buyers of today.

I am talking about the future.

Where Tesla is the biggest selling automaker in the US.

Where "Tesla" is generic for car.

Not early adopters. Nor early majority.

People who currently drive 10-15 year old cars buying 8 year old Teslas because it is conventional wisdom that is the cheapest way to go. Because Tesla drivetrains last 1M miles.
 
BTW These are Tesla powertrain warranties

  • Model S/Model X Warranty: These models are covered by an 8-year/150,000 mile warranty, whichever comes first.
  • Model Y/Model 3 Short Range Warranty: The short-range variants of these models are covered for 8 years/100,000 miles.
  • Model Y/Model 3 Long Range Warranty: The long-range variants are covered for 8 years/120,000 miles.

Tesla doesn't communicate to the customer that Tesla powertrains or battery packs last 450k or Half a Million Miles.

That some EV nerds compile data and have seen some Teslas reach that number( many with significant repairs) doesn't communicate to the general public that Tesla powertrains generally last 450k Plus Miles. That doesn't instill confidence in potential third owners bidding up the price of used Teslas.
 
I think the stock will take a big leap on battery day if any 2 of the following have significant changes, and a huge leap if all three do
- higher energy density
- faster charging
- cheaper

Million mile battery appears to be a given and baked into the price already.

Add the following:-
- if Tesla indicates they have a path to rapidly scale battery pack production in a capex efficient way.

From a valuation of the business point of view, that dictates the pace of revenue growth both in Vehicles and Energy Storage.

Whether or not the market will fully understand this, is anyone's guess.
 
Given the product does not exist yet for consumer purchase, and we have no resale data, this is called assuming facts not in evidence.

No, it's common sense that a 1M mile battery Tesla will have a higher resale than an otherwise equivalent Tesla without a 1M mile battery. Arguing they might have the same resale value because we don't have any resale data to go on is just plain silly.

The current Model S, even without such a battery, already has much higher resale value than any ICE vehicle in its class.

All Tesla cars have higher resale value than any ICE vehicle in it's class. It's one thing that makes a Tesla such a compelling purchase and a lot of people are just now learning about this benefit. A battery that lasts ~3 times longer will lose range at a slower rate and be even more desirable on the used market. Yes, that means resale value will be higher, all else being equal.

Even if it's currently "only" a 450,000 mile battery- most people- not even second owners- ever drive a car anywhere NEAR that many total miles.... so I'm not sure how much economic value it adds for the new car buyer to know "This will probably still be good for its 4th owner someday"

Again, it's common sense that a car with less range loss and longer remaining service life will be worth more than a car with more range loss and a shorter remaining service life. It doesn't matter how long a particular owner intends to keep it, the resale value is determined by how much someone is willing to pay for the used car. Only someone who wants to quibble would say this cannot be known without actual resale data.

Because Elon explicitly told us the Plaid S and X will be much more expensive than the existing ones.

Do you not believe him?

Not only do I believe him, it's common sense that the higher performance versions of the same car will cost more. But Elon did not tell us that the million mile battery will only ever be available in the very expensive Plaid cars. I don't know why you are assuming that without any facts to back it up. Even if the million mile battery is initially introduced in the Plaid models, and even that is not a given, you can be sure it will trickle down to less expensive models. Only a very small percentage of Tesla cars are sold for over $100,000. Surprisingly, there are still a lot of people who do not know this yet.
 
BTW, is it “Krugerrand” or “The Krugerrand”? Analogous the the eternal “Batman/The Batman” dilemma. Consensus seems to be that enemies prepend “The”, friends are more informal.

Clearly, if that is the consensus then it’s *The*.
Nope. Just "krug" or "that darn cat".

The only time "the" is in there is in "*the* crazy cat lady".
 
No, it's common sense that a 1M mile battery Tesla will have a higher resale than an otherwise equivalent Tesla without a 1M mile battery

That was not your claim though- your claim was " they retain more resale value. Significantly more"

If you're walking that back to "any" more then you have a lot better argument.

ANY more- sure.

Significantly more? That's random guessing at this point and common sense does not really support that at all.


Here's the math we know....

Initial buyers on average resell a new car after about 6.5 years... which is going to be (again using national average) about 88,000 miles on the vehicle.

So that gets us to it's the opposite of common sense to think folks are going to pay "significantly more" for an 88,000 mile vehicle with a "million mile" battery versus a "500,000 mile battery" given that second owner is also likely getting rid of it long before they hit either number.

So that initial buyer probably doesn't see much resale benefit- and certainly common sense doesn't support your claim he'll see "significantly" more.



. Arguing they might have the same resale value


Strawman....nobody said "same"

But they did dispute your claim of "significantly more"



All Tesla cars have higher resale value than any ICE vehicle in it's class. It's one thing that makes a Tesla such a compelling purchase


Right.

Which disproves the idea battery life is a major resale concern even with the "NOT" million mile battery in the car.


Second buyers are already paying class-leading amounts for a Tesla with the current generation of battery, because they already know it's already going to last longer than they're likely to own the car.

So lasting even longer after they no longer own it isn't much of a value add.


Not only do I believe him, it's common sense that the higher performance versions of the same car will cost more. But Elon did not tell us that the million mile battery will only ever be available in the very expensive Plaid cars.

Nor did I make such a claim.

Strawman on your part again.

Go back and read the original post that spawned the whole discussion (Artful Dodger citing someone else claiming the MMB on BD would immediately change the value proposition of the S versus the regular 3, because it'd suddenly have a 30 year life span versus the 3 that wouldn't be getting that battery for a while.)

I pointed out folks spending $140,000 on a car don't usually keep it for 10 years, let alone 30, so the MMB would make no difference at all to such a person...

YOU then replied you didn't understand why I was talking about 140k cars.

I explained it was because the orignal post was about the Plaid S. Which Elon told us would be far more expensive than the current S.

And now you appear back to being confused again about why the discussion was about the 140k cars?


And even then everyone else involved seemed to already agree it'd come to other cars later




I don't know why you are assuming that without any facts to back it up

I don't know why you keep making up things I didn't actually say and then questioning why I said them.

I did however backup the size of the current RR production line and the fact it's large enough to supply cells for Plaid, but not for mass production 3/Y vehicles.

I even discussed likely timeframes for when they DO show up in other models, listing several possibilities depending on GF berlin, GF Austin, and GF nevada each getting an RR line running for either Euro Y, Cybertruck, or regular S/X/3/Y in freemont.


You apparently missed all that in your rush to insist I was making an argument I didn't actually make?


. Even if the million mile battery is initially introduced in the Plaid models, and even that is not a given

It kinda is if you mean the roadrunner cells- because we know the size and (roughly) the production capabilities of Kato road.

But sure if they announce they've got a huge deal to buy CATLs million mile cells that's another story :)

Otherwise it'll be that race I mention between various GF sites to see who can get a much larger roadrunner setup up and going first.



, you can be sure it will trickle down to less expensive models.

So sure in fact, that I specifically mentioned it in the post you went on claim I said otherwise in :)
 
tumblr_lqk2n0MCXj1qh96peo1_500.jpeg

Voltron (Purtron?) . . . not so much the "classic" Transformer (and not from Cybertron) :p
 
I am not talking about the now. The new car buyers of today nor the 3 year off lease buyers of today.

I am talking about the future.

Where Tesla is the biggest selling automaker in the US.

Where "Tesla" is generic for car.

Not early adopters. Nor early majority.

People who currently drive 10-15 year old cars buying 8 year old Teslas because it is conventional wisdom that is the cheapest way to go. Because Tesla drivetrains last 1M miles.

Time will tell, but Tesla's hardware innovation pace would have to slow to remove the "shiny new" mindset that it's buyers and future buyers have.

Honestly, that pace of innovation is one of the major attractions.
 
Interesting information: https://twitter.com/carsonight/status/1305332657622978560?s=20

Carsonight @carsonight

Scoop: None of the battery cells for powerwalls, powerpacks, or megapacks are coming from the Nevada factory anymore. Those are all being imported. The only cells being made by Panasonic at GF1 are for vehicles. One of those lines is now making cells more energy dense and...

...longer lasting than those that went before. When added to the story from China that Model 3s will be exported from there, I think it is easy to connect the dots. The Nevada factory will be making cells for cyber trucks and semis in Texas.
 
I'm in a similar scenario. My wife won't let me sell our 2006 Lexus R400h, even though she has an X and I drive an S, because the Lexus is still working fine and she has this imaginary situation where we find ourselves suddenly without warning needing to take a long road trip where we can't afford the time to stop and charge. We fight about this every 6 months or so, usually when it's time for me to take it in for an oil change, swap out dead battery, or when I'm paying the insurance bill.

An advice. Don't tell her she's got company. Mine reminds me I have a grandson who might use it.
 


The stationary packs thing is interesting.... maybe they're buying CATLs million mile batteries :)

I don't think the second bit is a scoop though- the fact Panasonic had gotten density and other improvements was confirmed, by Panasonic, at least a month ago...(I think they cited 5% starting this month with 20% being their eventual goal).

As to the CT/Semi batteries coming from GF-N..... Elon told us back in June I think? That batteries and motors for Semi would be in Nevada... so that's pretty old news.

I dunno about CT- I figured with 3x the acreage as GigaBerlin they'd have local battery production in Austin, but maybe not?
 
  • Informative
  • Like
Reactions: gabeincal and MC3OZ
The stationary packs thing is interesting.... maybe they're buying CATLs million mile batteries :)

I don't think the second bit is a scoop though- the fact Panasonic had gotten density and other improvements was confirmed, by Panasonic, at least a month ago...(I think they cited 5% starting this month with 20% being their eventual goal).

As to the CT/Semi batteries coming from GF-N..... Elon told us back in June I think? That batteries and motors for Semi would be in Nevada... so that's pretty old news.

I dunno about CT- I figured with 3x the acreage as GigaBerlin they'd have local battery production in Austin, but maybe not?
Previously energy storage battery cell was provided by Samsung, it could be either Samsung or LG.
 
  • Informative
Reactions: Blue horseshoe
Which disproves the idea battery life is a major resale concern even with the "NOT" million mile battery in the car.

It seems self-evident that battery life matters, especially for resale buyers. One of the major concerns about EVs is range loss. Wouldn't a million mile battery help with this tremendously? It certainly matters for any kind of automated driving service, ride-sharing drivers, etc. For a car that is still a bit expensive, a battery with such tremendous life helps justify costs and further sets Tesla apart from the competition (as if there is any real competition, but humor me).

A million-mile battery would be a nice feather in Tesla's cap among the rest, and it's among a constellation of metrics that any buyer might consider, but especially so in the resale market.