Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[JRP3]

LOL I guess if you designed an HVAC that kept your Fridge Cold, and funneled heat produced by your AC to your oven you'd have the equivalent of a home octovalve

More practical would be waste heat from fridge could go to heat pump water heater, someone probably already offers this.

 

[Chenkers]

Some thoughts on a future Tesla home HVAC:

The highest efficiency home HVAC heat pump units currently available have a Coefficient of Performance (COP) of around 6.0 (eg Daikin US7). This is a small split system unit of around 2.5kW cooling/3.6kW heating, so enough for a medium sized room. The COP drops off considerably in the larger unit sizes. Most conventional inverter split system AC units would have a COP around 3.5-4.5. Larger commercial systems can be much more efficient with large Chiller COP's around 10 but other parasitic system losses with pumps, pipes, ducts and fans generally bring the total system COP back well under 5.

The main contributors to home HVAC energy efficiency are the quality and design of the compressor, internal and external fan efficiencies, coil and filter pressure drops and controls. Going away from air cooled to water cooled or geothermal will also improve efficiency but also adds significant complexity and cost. Elon is talking about adding a HEPA filter and that will typically add extra pressure drop and energy unless the filter is very large. Quality component design and smart integration of the compressor motors, fans and controls should shave off energy. However there are limitations in physics/thermodynamics that will limit what is acheivable in a compact package. I expect they will still come up with a highly compelling home HVAC product but it may be as much for the AI/Controls and energy system integration as it is for energy efficiency and indoor air quality.

 

[dgodfrey]

In case you guys were wondering what applying Tesla's battery day slide:

with a baseline model 3 battery pack, it looks like this:

What you see above is the end of ICE.

The $/KWh of $108 is from Sandy Munro's estimate. (Same with the $250 for the Bolt)

For instance, a circa 2023/2024 Tesla Model 3 Plaid edition could not only easily be a 850hp monster with 450-500 miles of range, but it would cost less to build than the current M3P! Even with more powerful motors taken into account!

Using the bottom numbers as a baseline, they match up with Plaid S perfectly. You end up with a 630kg battery pack with ~150KWh of storage, 840 KW of power, and a cost of $7,128.

BTW, The 200KWh Roadster pack probably has ~1.1MW of power available!!!!!

Thanks for putting the work into this. Much appreciated and very informative. I do question though the validity of the Bolt pack shown on your graph as the most expensive of all and more than twice that of the current Model 3 pack. Can you link where Sandy Munro stated that number? I can believe $150 but earlier reports before the Bolt hit the streets had them getting a sweetheart deal from LG Chem which leaked and put LG in a sticky situation as their agreements between clients could become ammunition for those that paid more.
The price you list is retail to replace a Bolt pack, certainly not what GM pays. It was rumored that GM is paying LG $145/kWh at the cell level and $196/kWh for the pack.

 

[dc_h]

I think the Plaid that went around the 'ring and the current plaid are two completely different cars. I don't think they had the Roadrunner batteries yet. For one, the new plaid makes >800kw of power vs the 500kw shown there.

I think the new one will be much faster...

Elon should have some game mode for drivers to pass before unlocking full power of Plaid and maybe some geo awareness so no one drives 150mph in a school zone. There's a lot of things in modern society that should have some gaming type level up opportunities. This car in the wrong hands is a bad headline waiting to be published. I would love to have this and know it would kick butt on the top of the line Mercedes AMG, but I really can't be trusted with that kind of power.

 

[Beltsbear]

Plus, there's no reason the Semi can't be the basis for a school bus or many other types of transport vehicles over time. Just load all them damn kids in a trailer with windows and there you go!

You can use 1/2 the drivetrain for a really kick ass school bus. One axe, (two motors) and half the battery would be plenty. Possible to use 1/4 the battery I some conditions.

 

[bkp_duke]

That's my point. It's a packaging optimization. It packages multiple valves in a single assmbly. But there's really no new functionality/capability it introduces.

That valve design, supposedly, is why the Model Y can get nearly the same range on the same pack as the Model 3, despite betting heavier, having wider tires, and having a worse coef of drag. But perhaps I am wrong and there is nothing revolutionary in the octovalve.

 

[lafrisbee]

My wife and I are planning on hitting the road in our cybertruck when the time comes. It would be fun to do it in a LARGE group.
Talk about free advertising. Can you imagine 100 cybertrucks traveling the country as a convoy!

There are not 100 people in the world that I want to share the road with so this is not going to be something I will be a part of until FSD.

 

[lafrisbee]

That valve design, supposedly, is why the Model Y can get nearly the same range on the same pack as the Model 3, despite betting heavier, having wider tires, and having a worse coef of drag. But perhaps I am wrong and there is nothing revolutionary in the octovalve.

I fail to see how an octovalve is going to give me less range anxiety in my home...

 

[bkp_duke]

More practical would be waste heat from fridge could go to heat pump water heater, someone probably already offers this.

With AC units, you can install a bypass on the compressor and use the compressor exhaust heat to warm a body of water (think pool).
Titanium Pool Heat Exchangers | Swimming Pool Heat Exchanger | HotSpot Energy LLC

We looked into this when we were having a pool installed, but the runs from our AC compressors would have seen too much thermal loss over the distance to the pool, so we didn't bother. Plus, solar pool heaters here in SoCal are dirt cheap by comparison.

 

[scaesare]

That valve design, supposedly, is why the Model Y can get nearly the same range on the same pack as the Model 3, despite betting heavier, having wider tires, and having a worse coef of drag. But perhaps I am wrong and there is nothing revolutionary in the octovalve.

The Y implemented a heat pump (which requires some additional valves, etc..), whereas the 3 did not.

That's the range increase...

 

[Khamul]

Elon should have some game mode for drivers to pass before unlocking full power of Plaid and maybe some geo awareness so no one drives 150mph in a school zone. There's a lot of things in modern society that should have some gaming type level up opportunities. This car in the wrong hands is a bad headline waiting to be published. I would love to have this and know it would kick butt on the top of the line Mercedes AMG, but I really can't be trusted with that kind of power.

Couldn't they make it so that you can't launch it in slow zones, like below 30 mph or whatever US city zones are? It'll have the hardware and the software for checking that, even if you don't purchase FSD.

 

[lafrisbee]

Elon should have some game mode for drivers to pass before unlocking full power of Plaid and maybe some geo awareness so no one drives 150mph in a school zone. There's a lot of things in modern society that should have some gaming type level up opportunities. This car in the wrong hands is a bad headline waiting to be published. I would love to have this and know it would kick butt on the top of the line Mercedes AMG, but I really can't be trusted with that kind of power.

You must be different than most... I've never tested how fast any of my vehicles will go. I feel as though an idiot behind any "sedan sport car" (Look at the Cadillacs in the last 15 years) would be as dangerous. I know, the giddy-up is far greater in a Plaid Tesla, but the fools aren't in sufficient numbers to dedicate resources to stop them.

 

[lafrisbee]

33 million shares traded at 1 PM? and the stock didn't sink?
So the big investors did not "figure out battery day" over the week end...and yet the stock isn't down...
I guess it is too early to think about Max Pain.

 

[KMCC]

There are not 100 people in the world that I want to share the road with so this is not going to be something I will be a part of until FSD.

I will remove your invite!,

 

[Cosmacelf]

With AC units, you can install a bypass on the compressor and use the compressor exhaust heat to warm a body of water (think pool).
Titanium Pool Heat Exchangers | Swimming Pool Heat Exchanger | HotSpot Energy LLC

We looked into this when we were having a pool installed, but the runs from our AC compressors would have seen too much thermal loss over the distance to the pool, so we didn't bother. Plus, solar pool heaters here in SoCal are dirt cheap by comparison.

Not to mention that when you need the AC, you don’t need pool heating (or at least I don’t since I have a pool cover). In fact, this summer near coastal southern CA, my pool was too hot with the pool cover.

All these thermal integrations are cool in concept. Use your AC waste heat to heat your hot water tank, etc. In practice it becomes a nightmare when something breaks. Your run of the mill AC tech is not going to understand the subtleties of heat flow in such a complicated setup. Also, the control architecture for such a system is not simple and unless done right, it could be even less efficient (speaking from experience of running an indoor pool system built for commercial pools that utterly fails energy-wise for residential use).

 

[bkp_duke]

Not to mention that when you need the AC, you don’t need pool heating (or at least I don’t since I have a pool cover). In fact, this summer near coastal southern CA, my pool was too hot with the pool cover.

All these thermal integrations are cool in concept. Use your AC waste heat to heat your hot water tank, etc. In practice it becomes a nightmare when something breaks. Your run of the mill AC tech is not going to understand the subtleties of heat flow in such a complicated setup. Also, the control architecture for such a system is not simple and unless done right, it could be even less efficient (speaking from experience of running an indoor pool system built for commercial pools that utterly fails energy-wise for residential use).

This would have been a very viable solution for us. We don't have a pool cover, and the wife won't get into the pool unless it is 88F or higher. Never once has the pool been "too hot".

Additionally, our pool sees about a 12-17F drop in temps overnight from various effects (evaporation in 24h, cooler ground temp, etc.).

Basically, it would have been an awesome heat sink to tap into (25k gals), and would have helped a little bit with raising the temp of the pool.

 

[insaneoctane]

ICE cars are going to seem really slow and dumb in just a few years...

Don't they already?

 

[Cosmacelf]

This would have been a very viable solution for us. We don't have a pool cover, and the wife won't get into the pool unless it is 88F or higher. Never once has the pool been "too hot".

Additionally, our pool sees about a 12-17F drop in temps overnight from various effects (evaporation in 24h, cooler ground temp, etc.).

Basically, it would have been an awesome heat sink to tap into (25k gals), and would have helped a little bit with raising the temp of the pool.

I see you live where I do. This summer we had temps of 95 in the pool. You get a huge amount of free solar heating from the pool cover plus a ton less evaporation. Not to mention all the debris that doesn’t get into the pool. And finally the safety factor. While non rectangular pools are nice to look at, the benefits of a pool cover vastly outweigh it, IMHO.

 

[bkp_duke]

I see you live where I do. This summer we had temps of 95 in the pool. You get a huge amount of free solar heating from the pool cover plus a ton less evaporation. Not to mention all the debris that doesn’t get into the pool. And finally the safety factor. While non rectangular pools are nice to look at, the benefits of a pool cover vastly outweigh it, IMHO.

Our pool is 100% non-amenable to a pool cover.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Or maybe she just made a typo..?

Cathie specifically used the phrase "$TSLA would cut the price of a Model 3 to $25,000".

That phrasing implies there is an existing product at a higher price.

It's more likely, IMHO, that Cathie doesn't follow Tesla tech as closely as ARK Invest analysts Sam Korus or Tasha Keeney.

Meet the ARK Team | People passionate about innovation and tomorrow's future

Kathie depends on them for financial analysis, not product road map. It's understandable she missing some nuance (wouldn't last at TMC, wot?)

Cheers!