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Contains conjecture:-

Redistributes any heat from any system to where it is needed most. Cools anything that needs cooling. Otherwise you have some sub-systems cooling and some using resistive heating all at the same time. Much more efficient.

Motors warm and approaching supercharger - use heat from motors to warm up cells. With a domestic air-source heat pump, you might get 4 heat from 1 unit of electricity. Maybe similar here 25 C motors take cells up to 50 C with a heatpump. The motors don't need cooling, but do have useful heat for the cells and much better than resistive heating
The Tesla automotive platforms already did multi-component thermal management (eg - scavenging waste heat from motor/inverter to warm the pack) using discrete valves. The octovalve simply consolidated them in to a single assembly. The addition of the heat pump added additional functionality to the system, but was not dependent on the octovalve. Heat pumps have existed for years... in some cases on other EVs.

The octovalve is much like the Model 3's superbottle: a packaging/cost optimization, but not the introduction of new functionality. Both seem to be often misconstrued.
 
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In case you guys were wondering what applying Tesla's battery day slide:

battery-day-slide-png.3428


with a baseline model 3 battery pack, it looks like this:

8JTBU6h.png


What you see above is the end of ICE.

The $/KWh of $108 is from Sandy Munro's estimate. (Same with the $250 for the Bolt)

For instance, a circa 2023/2024 Tesla Model 3 Plaid edition could not only easily be a 850hp monster with 450-500 miles of range, but it would cost less to build than the current M3P! Even with more powerful motors taken into account!

Using the bottom numbers as a baseline, they match up with Plaid S perfectly. You end up with a 630kg battery pack with ~150KWh of storage, 840 KW of power, and a cost of $7,128.

BTW, The 200KWh Roadster pack probably has ~1.1MW of power available!!!!!
One thing I haven't heard of is what version of the battery leads to these numbers. Assuming the starting position is the 2170 NMC. Is it the high nickel version, Nickel manganese, or LFP that is being considered in these numbers?

Assuming these are the high nickel cells then the others may reduce in cost by even more.
 
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Tesla producing 20M BEVs/year before 2030 might be Elon's most ambitious forecast ever. To reach this, growth the next 3-4 years needs to be close to 100% annually before declining (on a % basis) as 2030 approaches.

I think 2-3 huge announcements on new factories are coming over the next 12-18 months.
Future Historians shall call this "Musk's Law" (as in "Moore's Law" on growth in Semiconductors).
 
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IMHO, Tesla definitely should get into tractors, industrial and mining machinery, in order to forever silence the negative Nancies who keep bringing up carbon footprint of EV and battery manufacturing, (incorrectly) claiming it is worse than an ICE vehicle. The reality is that all that alleged carbon footprint comes purely from various part and raw material transportation plus industrial and mining equipment that is still diesel powered. If all those are replaced with EV technology, then the entire production starting from raw material mining to final Tesla vehicles can be done with zero emissions.

Additionally, electric mining equipment would be nice to have on Mars or the moon or anywhere else off our mud ball.
 
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Cathie specifically used the phrase "$TSLA would cut the price of a Model 3 to $25,000".

That phrasing implies there is an existing product at a higher price.

It's more likely, IMHO, that Cathie doesn't follow Tesla tech as closely as ARK Invest analysts Sam Korus or Tasha Keeney.

Meet the ARK Team | People passionate about innovation and tomorrow's future

Kathie depends on them for financial analysis, not product road map. It's understandable she missing some nuance (wouldn't last at TMC, wot?) :p

Cheers!

Curious mistake from Cathy (quickly acknowledged). I happen to know (because I heard her say it) that she was personally invited to Battery Day and was planning to attend. I do not know if she ended up going. She follows Tesla pretty closely.
 
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I read that as “we must pass the GF” as in GF1, either means we now only build Tera Factories, or something would happen to GF1.:eek:
:D
Revisiting Elon’s pinned tweet, with the rumors of Tesla taking a stake in LG, this is making more sense.

When Tesla got the DBE working, GF1 will become sunk cost for Panasonic(actually all current cell production lines will, not only Pana).

Seems Panasonic is hesitant to move forward with Tesla, and eat the costs(because they have purchasing agreements in hand), so Tesla is turning to LG to license them the Tesla tabless cell and DBE tech.

So the plan could be:
  1. Ramp up cell lines in one of the new GFs and once capacity passes GF1 output, switch over all products to use new cells over night.
  2. Sell GF1(To Tesla it’s mainly the purchase agreements) to someone else who desperately need cells, no matter how much it costs.
Or, it simply means new factories will be called TeraFactories instead of Giga.:D
 
More misreporting from LATimes

Tesla's Musk offers bullish forecast, pumps brakes on batteries hype

Because of COVID-19 and social distancing, the shareholder meeting was held outside — with customers sitting in Tesla Model 3s — like a drive-in movie theater. As Musk spoke, many beeped their horns to show approval.

Not such a big deal, but it was mostly Model Y, and also some Model 3 and X.

It just shows how little research and fact checking they do at the LA Times...
 
Revisiting Elon’s pinned tweet, with the rumors of Tesla taking a stake in LG, this is making more sense.

When Tesla got the DBE working, GF1 will become sunk cost for Panasonic(actually all current cell production lines will, not only Pana).

Seems Panasonic is hesitant to move forward with Tesla, and eat the costs(because they have purchasing agreements in hand), so Tesla is turning to LG to license them the Tesla tabless cell and DBE tech.

So the plan could be:
  1. Ramp up cell lines in one of the new GFs and once capacity passes GF1 output, switch over all products to use new cells over night.
  2. Sell GF1(To Tesla it’s mainly the purchase agreements) to someone else who desperately need cells, no matter how much it costs.
Or, it simply means new factories will be called TeraFactories instead of Giga.:D

More likely - Tesla can gobble up and use any and all cells they can get their hands a hold of. Owning part of LG gives them priority over other clients.

They will also keep the agreements with Panasonic, for the same reason - they can use every last cell they can get their hands on.
 
Cutting close but made it to quarter end. Renton WA center is completely full of new cars, double parked, triple parked, just piles of new Testas. Mostly M3s, they had only one other blue Y on the lot. They told me all this goodness is gonna be gone by end of the month. And it's not a small lot there. Amazing, just think how much time and personnel would it take for a traditional dealership to move this much inventory in such a short period of time. I'd say at least 3x if not 5x.

Investment advice: buy high. As in, buy your tesla when the stock is high.
 

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