Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[replicant]

As far as Elon is concerned, this manufacturing improvement and product improvements really are insane. To be able to cut down on gigafactories and water usage is a huge deal. Not to mention that this is probably going to play a bigger role in the scaling of Tesla than anything else to date.

IMO, most people and almost all the media don't actually care about industrial progress made specifically for the environment. They/we definitely care about negative things affecting the environment (fear!), but improvements that don't translate into immediate, individual benefits is mostly discarded -- however meaningful. This depresses me much, but I take comfort from the actions of organization like Tesla (and from ecologists who care deeply about mankind's hubris that brought us in today's nightmare... NB: Musk and these ecologists disagree and will fight on many things, but I trust Musk will listen to them at some point).

 

[lafrisbee]

Sidebar to my above post...I also have come to accept that my idea about him constantly delaying Battery Day had nothing to do with "needing to be there." But instead was due to a constant stream of discoveries which were so close to the growing theme of Battery Day that a decision was made to delay battery day to include the various improvements.
But it also could have been because of technical issues with trying to resolve scalability issues within the manufacturing process as well as securing the materials and trying to work out partnerships and licensing with other companies.
It sure as hell wasn't because you needed to be there to experience it.

 

[BriansTesla]

The new cell technology is insane.
I see that and I’m not even an engineer. And I’m more impressed by it than my wife who happens to be an electrical engineer. Maybe because I am a Tesla fanboi or because I see it as an act of witchcraft. Lol

I believe one of the marks of true genius is when an idea seems obvious after it is presented. Even if the idea is not completely new, the application of a process or design can be revolutionary in it's effect. Example: The tabless cell design. Even if not completely original, the timing and the application of the design are genius. Faster production, better heat dissipation throughout the cell and less resistance. Why was this not used previously? No genius available.

 

[lafrisbee]

Exactly! The Hornsdale battery has paid for itself in 2.5 years. This probably has the full attention of every utility in the world. When Tesla can produce enough batteries and finance these installations, like GE, then you will see enormous growth.
Hornsdale and its big Tesla battery exceed expectations as storage revenue surges

Hornsdale is in a unique climate, yes? there is something in the weeds about that "profit" that doesn't carry over to other countries/regions?

 

[bkp_duke]

Hornsdale is in a unique climate, yes? there is something in the weeds about that "profit" that doesn't carry over to other countries/regions?

It's similar enough to California that Tesla is installing a much bigger battery setup here on similar principles.
PG&E, Tesla begin construction on one of the world’s largest batteries

 

[ZachF]

TSLA green, NKLA red...

Christmas colors!

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Sidebar to my above post...I also have come to accept that my idea about him constantly delaying Battery Day had nothing to do with "needing to be there." But instead was due to a constant stream of discoveries which were so close to the growing theme of Battery Day that a decision was made to delay battery day to include the various improvements.
But it also could have been because of technical issues with trying to resolve scalability issues within the manufacturing process as well as securing the materials and trying to work out partnerships and licensing with other companies.
It sure as hell wasn't because you needed to be there to experience it.

I think it's been mostly about partnerships. Panasonic tried to leverage a better deal by bottlenecking cell production at GF1 in 1Q19. It backfired and Elon wanted to move away from them in some capacity, but didn't have a definitive plan.

Some of the delay has yes definitely been innovation-related, but we now know they've been using these new cells for months so really they could have easily done Battery Day on 4/20 (pardon me, April the 20th).

I think the big hold up was more around halfway extricating themselves from the Panasonic partnership while still maintaining production at GF1. It's not a coincidence that a few days after Battery Day we see an announcement of Tesla sniffing around for a 10% stake in LG.

 

[UkNorthampton]

I think Tesla doesn't want to be hampered by trying to sell a lower end "world car" to the Chinese. They want that car solely focused on China market. Including going to an even lower price point if necessary. I expect the other $25K car will be big enough for the U.S. market.

Tesla is probably doing a lot of thinking about how they want to position against the many pretty good pretty inexpensive EVs coming to North America. That business could be a profitability nightmare for the participants. Tesla may be better off sitting out the initial mauling, especially with the battery commitment needed for semi and cybertruck.

Limited external competition, Germany and China might be quite 'loyal' markets preferring their own designs. So create some internal competition. I think SpaceX did something similar pitting 2 geographic teams against each other in a friendly competition before taking lessons from both.

That way, two chances of developing really compelling cars with different market appeal even if made/sold in all locations.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

TSLA green, NKLA red...

Christmas colors!

CVX/BP/XOM all down 3-4%

Delightful.

 

[ggr]

FWIW the volume is really low, like really really low. I think we are on track for one of the lowest volume days in a while. This is not specific to TSLA. It's probably because traders/investors are waiting for the debate tonight.

In the most recent past we have seen TSLA actually take a dip on great delivery numbers. In this case the stock has had quite a run up since the split was announced plus Factset estimate is for 141K deliveries. I guess I'm saying that unless we get a 150K delivery we could see a minor selloff. I would actually be fine with the stock consolidating around these levels until the Q3 ER.

Back in the '90s, lo those many years ago, when I worked at Qualcomm, I was always amazed that the company would beat the wall street estimates and then QCOM would go down, because "they didn't beat the estimates as much as we thought they would!" I think this is now being applied to TSLA. Wall St says 141k, Troy says 144k (just from memory), what's the bet that if deliveries are fewer than150k the stock will drop on the next trading day, along with fake news saying that Tesla missed expectations (not estimates). But hold anyway.

 

[S3XY]

Please swing by Buffalo along the way. Everyone could take in Niagara Falls and my wife

Wow, very open and accommodating... especially on her part!

and I could join the convoy.

Again quite the offer!

So I take it that you work in the area of Political Party Campaign advertising? If not, you're a natural.

 

[scaesare]

Forgive me if already posted. This E for Electric interview with Sandy Munro is the best one I've seen yet explaining the benefits of the Battery Day presentation...a must watch. Sandy is gushing with excitement.

Thanks for the link.

I enjoy watching Munro's videos, and just finished this one. He typically has some good manufacturing and comparative insights.

However there are a number of areas where I don't think he's up to speed, particularly with electronics and electrical electrical. I've noticed/commented on this before.

In this video he expresses concern that if everybody moved to 800V architecture and too many folks tried to charge at once "NYC could experience a brownout". He clearly doesn't understand the relationship between voltage, current, and power.

 

[scaesare]

So I take it that you work in the area of Political Party Campaign advertising? If not, you're a natural.

Hey! Language!

This is a family place...

 

[Tyler34]

Q3 profits secured. You all can thank me later.

 

[zecar]

Limited external competition, Germany and China might be quite 'loyal' markets preferring their own designs. So create some internal competition. I think SpaceX did something similar pitting 2 geographic teams against each other in a friendly competition before taking lessons from both.

That way, two chances of developing really compelling cars with different market appeal even if made/sold in all locations.

I agree. It also instills a "no excuses" discipline on Tesla China. Tesla not being one of the Chinese auto majors by the end of the decade risks becoming a secondary EV player if China becomes the dominant EV manufacturer. The best long term approach for Tesla is probably to fully develop Tesla China except for primary car software. The Chinese competition should still be required to do the usually espionage in California if they want the key software.

Berlin too is not just about a major market, but to be in the center of a major competitors work force.

Austin, however, is about country music.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

This one is EASY to answer.

You are making the false assumption that Tesla wants to make as much money as possible. That's easy to understand, as that is the goal of just about every corporation.

Instead, Tesla's mission is to "accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy". Elon has stated many times that as margins on cars improve, Tesla will lower the price on those cars so that they are affordable to more people.


It's a b@#$%h for the traditional car companies to deal with a disruptor like this because the concept is completely foreign to them, and they base their "competitive models" on a startup wanting to make a certain profit percentage. Tesla is not run that way.

EDIT - Wall St. pundits ALWAYS misinterpret this move as a "lack of demand" for Tesla vehicles. The scale up in battery production is the clearest piece of evidence ever that there is no "demand problem" for Tesla vehicles.

Exactly. The goal is to push the entire world forward via innovation. If that means making 20 million EVs in 2030, then Tesla will do that. Though I doubt the internal plan is to do so. Think of the Waal Street image of Tesla's goals vs this reality. Couldn't be further off target.

Tesla has invented the iPhone of cars and is hoping the rest of the market will immediately fill in the "Android gap" with all the low margin options.

I would go as far as to argue they don't want to go below the Model 3/Y level unless they have to. Two years from now if there's not sufficient progress marketwide, they'll hit the go button on a $25k mass production.

Keep pushing until the rest of the market complies.

 

[OrthoSurg]

Jack Ma is like the ~28th richest man.

And TBH, Jack Ma probably got there 100% from CCP connections... watch the interview he did with Musk. Musk clearly thinks he's a moron and is biting his tongue the whole time.

Yes this interview was cringe
The part where Jack Ma says « Mars doesn’t interest me, I’m just coming back from there. » was not funny at all. Dismissive.

I thought Jack Ma was richer being the head of Alibab, well 28th place makes me feel better :X

 

[Blue horseshoe]

"insane"?
I had not given the word much thought.
But now that I look back, the information provided did actually make me lose it. The first topic where they got in to the percentage improvement a discovery would have on the battery issues had me thinking that TESLA had made a huge leap. And I was ecstatic. I yelled to the wife in the other room how "Tesla had done it!" or some such nonsense.
And then Elon put another point and percentage up on the screen. And I had a little bit of a struggle to process how good it was, and what it meant with the first percentage....
And it snowballed from there. Halfway through the presentation I was intellectually spent. And also I was entering into the area of disbelief. I struggled with reality, or whatever the presentation was. My mind went began to question whether this was a "ShaM-wow" commercial (BTW he is still at it,

). I was unhappy with it all. What was Elon trying to do? This can't really be possible? (I really wanted him to do something on stage to prove the technology was beyond intellectual property. Like Kill an elephant!
And the issue of a demonstration should not be discounted by any of you. Repeatedly the "Battery Day" was delayed because "This needs to be seen in person" was the reason. And so? Where was the "in-person" part? Not a damn thing during the whole presentation was first person. There was NOTHING concrete. People travelled from all over the world to sit in a Model 3 by themselves and stare at other people like they were in rush hour traffic on an LA freeway.... So I was thinking, "They are going to SHOW us something." I mean actually show us.
Everything "Shown" at Battery Day could have been done much better in a packaged presentation just released on Youtube. Or a webcast.
So yeah, I lost the ability to believe all the "Wait there's more.." additional advancements/improvements. I started questioning myself AND(or) Elon. Is that insanity?
I think so. Which is kind of amusing now that I look back on it.
In the end you either sat there thinking, "I guess I'll believe Elon can do all that, whatever that is..." Or you were so big a fanboi to begin with that you are irrational, or you are so financially invested you don't have a choice as to what you believe.
But back to the point, So much was stated that it became difficult to believe or comprehend or understand... and if you tried to you became ?

It's possible (probable in my opinion) that they had plans to provide rides and showcase the tech, but due to covid restrictions it would take too long to decon in between rides or something of that nature. I recall someone mentioning that the cars for everyone was a last minute change, but I could be remembering that wrong.

In any event I find this to be a non-issue. Battery day reiterated to me that which is already known:
1. If cash avail
2. Then buy tsla
3. See step 1.

 

[Fred42]

Ford lowers Mach-E prices.
Ford Mustang Mach-E electric SUV prices have been cut by up to $3,000 before arrival

 

[vikings123]

Back in the '90s, lo those many years ago, when I worked at Qualcomm, I was always amazed that the company would beat the wall street estimates and then QCOM would go down, because "they didn't beat the estimates as much as we thought they would!" I think this is now being applied to TSLA. Wall St says 141k, Troy says 144k (just from memory), what's the bet that if deliveries are fewer than150k the stock will drop on the next trading day, along with fake news saying that Tesla missed expectations (not estimates). But hold anyway.

I agree with you. I think we are being setup for failure. Instead of looking at the YoY number they are going to compare it to the estimates. I think Troy's latest estimate is down to 143K. There is one analyst that has 161K as his estimate(Chaim Siegel of Elzar Advisors). No idea what this guy is smoking but he is definitely skewing the factset average. Some of the other Tesla bulls I follow on Twitter have it around 140K. This is all short term noise so hold it is.

I was just cautioning people betting on options. Maybe wait to see what transpires tonight with the debate and if IV remains at decent levels I might make a couple of bets for Friday expiry. In the meantime(today) I plan to close out the puts I sold last week.