Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[AudubonB]

What's a model Y?

West 63rd St:

 

[Steve m]

Oh, nothing kills SEXY like a minivan!

My first car was a 1966 VW split window 25 pane sun roof micro bus. I am holding out for the mini van

 

[KarenRei]

Elon continues to downplay the mass appeal of his pickup truck. I think Rivian has nothing to worry about. They’ll sell their 20,000 production run fairly easily.

I think he has to. I think he's decided it's worth it to break some of the standard rules of "what a pickup should look like" in order to get some serious benefits (the most obvious benefit would be in terms of aerodynamics). The more that people go into the unveiling expecting something out of the ordinary, the better.

 

[Antares Nebula]

I don't remember him saying that the Model Y would be revealed later - can you quote where he said that?

I have to find it, but I think it was in either Q3 or Q4 CC, where he said, in response to a question, that the MY will be revealed closer to production. So I asssumed, production being in 2020, reveal would be summer or later.

 

[AudubonB]

Actually I do remember. I lie a lot in the face of old age, anything for a laugh at the inevitable.

It is quite easy to exit the Model 3 in this digital age. All I have to do is push the easy/exit button and the whoopy cushion at the same time ever remembering, of course, Buddha's observation "perception is reality." Philosophers really fret over a non-problem, the falsehood of the mind-body separation. Just look at the stock market to see the havoc thus caused.

(I do have to worry about remembering to open the door first. Otherwise there may ensue what we old farts call a 90 percenter. Apologies. Near the confirmation of eschatology, old windbreakers tend to the scatological. AudubonB will know if the words have the same root.)

Correct.
That is, I do indeed know the answer.
Which is:
No.
Most unfortunately!

 

[Cattledog]

Yes! So glad someone got his attention with this idea on Twitter. This could create exploding demand if done right. Sign me up.

This is pretty brilliant. People request a test ride/drive through a detuned version of the Tesla App for non-owners. Owners, like Uber drivers, can accept the test ride/drive. Time/date/location set. Insurance through Tesla? Automatically registers with Tesla, so if the test rider/driver buys, owner gets some credit. I'm in.

 

[Cattledog]

Which is probably why Elon wants to name it Model E in the beginning(before being shot down by Ford who owns the trademark)

And I own the domain name. Damn you, Ford!

 

[Antares Nebula]

@Fact Checking

I can't find mention of it there. Maybe it was on Twitter. Not sure. Maybe I'm wrong, but I could have sworn I've read that somewhere. He didn't say later or that he was delaying it necessarily, only that it would be revealed closer to production rather than earilier, and I took this to mean much later than March.

 

[ReflexFunds]

Some interesting Supercharger V3 comments on reddit. No idea if its accurate but seems mostly plausible. 20% to 80% charge in 13-15 minutes for Model 3 would be an extremely significant development in my opinion.

Apparently they were told by a friend who works at Tesla.
Source: u/NetBrown

• "200kW is correct.
• All Model 3 battery chemistry will be able to handle this.
• Total redesign from the current v2, which uses repurposed vehicle chargers. V3 is done from start using industrial inverters based from Power Packs.
• Ideally meant for long distance only, will be deployed in far out places to bridge gaps (Forks,WA will be one of the first places in the NW completed).
• Initially will not have liquid cooled cables in early release, but all v3 will eventually have liquid cables."

Q. Source?

• A: You won't like it, but a friend who works there. We will all see if I (or rather he/she) was lying to me in a couple of days.
• Also: Cars which can not use full rate will still be able to SC at these, just will take longer.
• Suspicion of mine: firmware update in late march will enable not just the 5%power increase but also have v3 support in it

Q. What would be the equivalent in mi/hr roughly?

• A: At full power? Not sure, but supposedly the taper will be different too. Target charge time is to cut the prime 20-80 zone in half in terms of time
• Well half the timeframe for this on a 3 (which supports the full 200kW speed) would still be about 13-15 min. Definitely faster, but not quite a gas fill up yet.

Q. How would it possibly cut the time in half?

• A. Partly by increasing power, partly by adjusting the charging curve.
  
• Not all chemistry can handle it, and SC v2 was put out before several changes in chemistry were made. This upgrade should allow newer cars to do a more aggressive charging curve without cell degradation.

Q. So 200 to start and maybe 250 with liquid cables ?

• A. No, I was told just a flat 200. That said, 200 at 400v is faster than the Taycans 350 at 800v"

 

[Antares Nebula]

Re Osborne effect MY on M3, bear in mind that along with a higher price tag, the tax credit winds down also. So you're talking about net $31k for base M3 (by June), $33k (by Dec) vs about $39/40k for base MY next year.

 

[kbM3]

Given the lowered range from the SUV format I think they won't offer any battery smaller than the 3's MR for the Y because it would be too short a range for the Tesla brand. Therefore starting price will be $44k.

Elon expects demand to be 1M/year. I don’t believe that would be possible with a $44k base price.

 

[sparcs]

What do you guys think will be the market reaction - both immediately tomorrow (and next week) and after 14th ?

Model Y is a known quantity with 75% parts of Model 3 so there's not much news to trade on. It will rise a little up to 3/14 then drop. We're a long ways to mass production of Model Y. Probably at least a year from now. GF1 isn't even fully confirmed for Model Y production yet. Nor have they broken ground for expansion at GF1.

Supercharger V3 could be interesting news since Tesla had indicated they had a way to lower deployment costs. "Fueling" infrastructure is the only big hole in Tesla's plan so far and this may fill that gap. They could easily double the size of their current deployment along highways in the US to reduce range anxiety.

 

[Antares Nebula]

Ultimately, Osborne effect is a short term effect. The real question is what is the long term demand trend of 3 vs Y. If it can steady state around 500k for 3 and 750k for Y (at a minimum), I think we're good.

 

[EVNow]

Ultimately, Osborne effect is a short term effect. The real question is what is the long term demand trend of 3 vs Y. If it can steady state around 500k for 3 and 750k for Y (at a minimum), I think we're good.

I really hope Tesla factories can handle 3/Y at any desired ratio on the same lines. In the ICE world, demand for sedan / SUV goes up & down depending on gas price. We don't know how it will work with 3/Y, since there is no gas price to worry about. Most people I know have one sedan and one SUV in the family.

 

[Drumheller]

Note the timing: Elon announced the Model Y reveal three days after the $35k Model 3 reveal.

My take: all March production capacity already spoken for with new Model 3 orders ... no Osborning worries from the Model Y reveal. Elon waited for the new Model 3 order influx.

I'd expect the Model 3 SR delivery estimate to be updated from "2-4 weeks" to "4 weeks" next week.

Just wondering....

Maybe Musk watched the stock on Friday, saw the new shorts, went to his council after market close and said he wanted to tweet v3 and the Model Y release dates on Sunday. Gets approved. About 48 hours later, tweets go out.

Probably not, but slightly amusing possibility (unless I've got the process wrong).

 

[Antares Nebula]

Not a peep on SA about the Y reveal. Shorts have gone catatonic.

 

[TradingInvest]

Ultimately, Osborne effect is a short term effect. The real question is what is the long term demand trend of 3 vs Y. If it can steady state around 500k for 3 and 750k for Y (at a minimum), I think we're good.

I guess Model Y demand will reach 1 million a year by the end of 2020. Legacy carmakers will get into trouble quickly. I will put down two reservations if Tesla takes deposit on March 14th.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Ultimately, Osborne effect is a short term effect. The real question is what is the long term demand trend of 3 vs Y. If it can steady state around 500k for 3 and 750k for Y (at a minimum), I think we're good.

From what I understand there are multiple lines producing model 3. Is there any reason that they can’t use one line to start producing model Y if the production capacity is being under utilized because of falling model 3 demand? Kinda kill two birds with one stone.

 

[EVNow]

Note the timing: Elon announced the Model Y reveal three days after the $35k Model 3 reveal.

My take: all March production capacity already spoken for with new Model 3 orders ... no Osborning worries from the Model Y reveal. Elon waited for the new Model 3 order influx.

I'd expect the Model 3 SR delivery estimate to be updated from "2-4 weeks" to "4 weeks" next week.

But what is the reason for Model Y reveal, at all ? I actually don't see any strong reason for revealing it more than 2 months before delivery.
- Fear of details leaking
- Deposits
- Boost SP
- ?

 

[Antares Nebula]

From what I understand there are multiple lines producing model 3. Is there any reason that they can’t use one line to start producing model Y if the production capacity is being under utilized because of falling model 3 demand? Kinda kill two birds with one stone.

I don't think it's that bad, and besides I think Y is a whole different and more efficient manufacturing process. New lines being set up at GF1 and GF3.