Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[bkp_duke]

And the neurosurgeon was deeply arguing against my long and hold arguments saying that it is not how big money is made in stock market. That it is by daytrading buying low and selling high daily to make 1-2% with each trade.

He is excellent at doing a scoliosis surgery in less than 2 hours but don’t understand at all the buy and hold philosophy.

There might be a subcategory of excellent day traders but for us common mortals not living on Wallstreet, buy and hold of an excellent company after due diligence seems like the best way of long term growth.

My FIL keeps pushing the day-trading narrative. You really have to know your @#$% to do that stuff, you cannot do it part time.

You also have to be prepared to lose your shirt, and I'm just not that brave.



My experience, as a physician, is that other physicians usually over-estimate their investment prowess. I've been humbled more than once, and have decided from that experience that (for me) a long strategy is best.

 

[brianhn1]

Can't upvote this enough. My vlose friends stuck around. But some acquaintances had to be ejected.. . I was probably a bit too passionate in the beginning.

COVID2 really opened my eyes on how brainwashed the majority is.

I used to question myself on trends I saw. Thinking "If I can see this, there must be many others that can as well".

But turns out, that even after 10 years since I spotted it, I am still with the minority.

Sounds like ya'll don't have any friends left! This thread is like a hermit's anonymous support group. In all seriousness, don't they say it's self isolating on the way up?

I'm in the camp of mostly dumb, so I don't have any brainpower to sell shares but I know how to buy!

 

[OrthoSurg]

My FIL keeps pushing the day-trading narrative. You really have to know your @#$% to do that stuff, you cannot do it part time.

You also have to be prepared to lose your shirt, and I'm just not that brave.



My experience, as a physician, is that other physicians usually over-estimate their investment prowess. I've been humbled more than once, and have decided from that experience that (for me) a long strategy is best.

Yes.
I have been humbled more than once too, even with long hold with companies I did not do due diligence and listened to my financial advisor that a company valued 2.50$ would go to $5 minimum because the Chinese offered 5B for the train division itself which is 5$/share. However they ran out of liquidity and liquidated all the division and now they only have the private jet left which is not worth 30cent a share.

Now I read a sh1tload more before investing in individual stocks. I could recover from that terrible -90% but this was a hard learned lesson I will never forget.

 

[Snerruc]

Sounds like ya'll don't have any friends left! This thread is like a hermit's anonymous support group. In all seriousness, don't they say it's self isolating on the way up?

I'm in the camp of mostly dumb, so I don't have any brainpower to sell shares but I know how to buy!

I must live in a different world than some of you. I’ve never had someone bash my car. Mostly they are curious and ask reasonable questions. My daughter took it to a hot car meetup at a local bar. I thought it would be hooted out. Those guys were all over it. It was a Hit.

 

[ktrivedi70]

Hey! I’m 80 and just finished a 1500 mile trip followed by a 1100 mile trip. Not all of us are half dead.

This is one of my favorite things about this forum. Different people from different generations, different geographies, different life experiences all united around a common vision for a better tomorrow.
Guess that second glass of wine made me a little hokey.

 

[Oveeus]

This is my take on upcoming EV competitions:

Europeans:
VW is going big, as well as Volvo/Polestar. Both ID3/Polestar2 are proven to be a cheaper (in either price and substance) alternative.
And that is the keypoint of the $25000 model from Tesla. VW and Polestar are basically choices with compromises.

We all know Tesla is not only a pioneer in the EV space, but it produces the best EV there is, bar none. What VW/Volvo and other EU manufacturers are hoping that with their current infrastructure of dealerships and manufacturing know-hows, they might stand an edge (regardless of how irrational it might sound) against Tesla.

However, I think the way Tesla is doing is that their EV requires little to no service, and hence there really is no need to have a massive dealership network to service the vehicles. Sure I wish Tesla's service capacity could be better reading all the stories because I never know when it's going to be my turn. However, in my own experience, I've ever needed the service once, and that's for more a cosmetic issue (misaligned door) rather than anything else.

Most of the bugs are solved via OTA updates. And thus, in the grand scheme of things, legacy's infrastructure is not really an edge, but more of a burden that it's going to drag them down in the long term. As we can see from many examples, like Jaguar's OTA capability needs to be "enabled" by dealers. This business choice, I believe it wasn't Jaguar's original intention. However, they've got no choice.

Chinese:
NIO, BYD, Xpeng... etc are all going full steam after the Chinese market. However, the advantage that Tesla has is not so different to Apple's iPhone. It's considered a premium brand in the EV sector. And with Tesla continuing effort to optimize cost and reflects almost immediately to the market, it makes Chinese brands really hard to compete because many still have the model year mentality where they make adjustments on a year-to-year basis.

Thus, I think it doesn't matter whether it's competition from European/American/Chinese EV brands, Tesla's business decision (no-dealership model, no model year model, charging station infrastructure... etc) is what separates itself from all the competition.

Eventually, I believe many players, if they were to stay competitive, they'd have no choice but to mimic Tesla's model. However, given the news we got from Battery Day... by the time competition finally copies everything Tesla CURRENTLY has, Tesla would move to somewhere else already as far as competitive advantage goes.

 

[st_lopes]

Yes.
I have been humbled more than once too, even with long hold with companies I did not do due diligence and listened to my financial advisor that a company valued 2.50$ would go to $5 minimum because the Chinese offered 5B for the train division itself which is 5$/share. However they ran out of liquidity and liquidated all the division and now they only have the private jet left which is not worth 30cent a share.

Now I read a sh1tload more before investing in individual stocks. I could recover from that terrible -90% but this was a hard learned lesson I will never forget.

good ol’ bombardier...

 

[Thumper]

Definition of a friend: Someone who knows all about you but likes you anyway.

 

[tinyrodent]

Close range fly through of the Berlin factory site. They may be taking a day off, but this build is progressing very rapidly.

 

[Knightshade]

I must live in a different world than some of you. I’ve never had someone bash my car. Mostly they are curious and ask reasonable questions..

Same here... occasionally I've had a friend with a misconception or two they were happy to be corrected on ("You got a tesla? aren't those all like a hundred grand??") but mostly it was either people interested in learning more, or who already knew a bit and were happy to see the car.

Even converted a couple of muscle-car grunt grunt V8 and turbo-import heads after a ride or two.

Occasionally a friend just didn't care either way, because they're not much interested in cars apart from getting from A to B.... but the idea folks lost friends over owning a tesla just sounds weird as hell...

 

[Dutchie]

You explained to him that because of all the contraption out there the sea rise will be 1 less foot high in Miami in 20 years?

Oh yeah, many times. He is the kind of guy who takes the plane on Friday night; flies for three hours to some kind of resort on a beach for two days and flies back on Sunday night. Even though he lives in Australia on the coast with enough beaches. He has two big ICE vehicles. When I point out of what the impact is in what he is doing he just says: “ I am doing it while I still can”

 

[OrthoSurg]

Oh yeah, many times. He is the kind of guy who takes the plane on Friday night; flies for three hours to some kind of resort on a beach for two days and flies back on Sunday night. Even though he lives in Australia on the coast with enough beaches. He has two big ICE vehicles. When I point out of what the impact is in what he is doing he just says: “ I am doing it while I still can”

Hahahahaha, we have the same brothers!

 

[Singuy]

My FIL keeps pushing the day-trading narrative. You really have to know your @#$% to do that stuff, you cannot do it part time.

You also have to be prepared to lose your shirt, and I'm just not that brave.



My experience, as a physician, is that other physicians usually over-estimate their investment prowess. I've been humbled more than once, and have decided from that experience that (for me) a long strategy is best.

My friend who DT and refuse to go long but he awknowledge the limitation of DT. He set a max loss and gain per day to minimize emotions, which means he can't ever see gigantic gains.

He want to be long but really doesn't know how to trust the headlines he reads which I agree as most headlines are misleading to gain clicks. You just really need to love the subject matter because most retail stock buyers could care less about how many tops/watt Tesla's FSD chip uses vs nvidia's.

 

[Dutchie]

Has he driven it?

No, he refuses to.

 

[Dutchie]

I rated your post about your relationship with your brother Because it makes YOU look much worse than it does him. What is in your heart? Is the effort not worth it to YOU?
YOU've given up although YOU could improve his life by achieving a breakthrough of this impasse. YOU have the truth on your side, and the knowledge but YOU have given up.
If YOU cannot change someone's mind that is so close to YOU, and meant so much to YOU...
Heck, I've changed My Father's mind. He's bought the stock, and is not completely against the idea of owning a Tesla. And the old man drives Bentley's and high end Mercedes to the Yacht club. (His everyday car is a Posh van.).
Now if your Brother is just one big Dick then sure cut him loose. Fortunately I have been able to do that with the rest of my siblings because they poorly planned their last despicable act. Thankfully! (long story, not suited, even vaguely, for this forum, never mind this thread.)

He lives in Australia. I have not seen him since we had the Tesla.

 

[bkp_duke]

Oh yeah, many times. He is the kind of guy who takes the plane on Friday night; flies for three hours to some kind of resort on a beach for two days and flies back on Sunday night. Even though he lives in Australia on the coast with enough beaches. He has two big ICE vehicles. When I point out of what the impact is in what he is doing he just says: “ I am doing it while I still can”

Reminds me of my next door neighbor, another physician, who has friends and family gatherings 1-2 times per week of 5-15 people. . . . when this guy is actively seeing COVID-19 patients.

My wife and I just sit by, jaws agape, and wonder WTF is running through their heads.

 

[lascavarian]

Again, maybe I'm naïve...

You have complete control over your data. It takes work. Laws have to be passed and that is very hard to accomplish.

I think it was Mr Oracle who was quoted saying “You have no privacy, just get over it.” Or something like that. It was to the advantage of a DB vendor to convince the masses to surrender their privacy without a fight.

Similarly, the phone companies had a problem with people trusting the privacy of cell phones for business uses. Their solution was to pass a goofy law that allows the phone companies to prevent citizens from examining the rf radiation they pump into your house and even through your body.

This was a radical approach in a country (US) that had always allowed radiation coming into your home (rf) to be freely examined at will. The phone companies made it against the law for the benefit of their business model.

Nothing prevents our right to privacy and control thereof from being enshrined in law. We just have to do it.

 

[jerry33]

Same here... occasionally I've had a friend with a misconception or two they were happy to be corrected on ("You got a tesla? aren't those all like a hundred grand??") but mostly it was either people interested in learning more, or who already knew a bit and were happy to see the car.

Even converted a couple of muscle-car grunt grunt V8 and turbo-import heads after a ride or two.

Occasionally a friend just didn't care either way, because they're not much interested in cars apart from getting from A to B.... but the idea folks lost friends over owning a tesla just sounds weird as hell...

If you only drive five or ten miles a day a couple of times a week (before CV-19) it just doesn't matter because you're not going to spend more than you have to on a car.

 

[OrthoSurg]

Reminds me of my next door neighbor, another physician, who has friends and family gatherings 1-2 times per week of 5-15 people. . . . when this guy is actively seeing COVID-19 patients.

My wife and I just sit by, jaws agape, and wonder WTF is running through their heads.

The more I have worked with physicians and realize some people doesn’t have the “long term altruistic” gene as I call it. They buy suburbains, Porsche Macan, drive back and forth to the hospital 100 miles 3 times a day, take the plan every week end to go to Florida back and forth pre covid era. They have no consideration whatsoever to anything not affecting them directly and immediately. I guess that is the worst consequence of what savage capitalism created. Egocentric monsters.

The natives were raised in a different philosophy to respect the Earth and the nature because their God Mother Earth would be clement to them and all their community including themselves would benefit as far as some of native communities believes stated.

The altruistic capitalist is rare I would say under 5-10%, has to be educated on the long term effects of his immediate action, has to care for the people that will stay on this planet while they are gone, children or relatives more often, and they have to be ready to lower their level of life confort. Once environmental consciousness arise from education, the motivation to act on it doesn’t always come, some have to be influenced by a strong emotionally-connected event that happened to someone close that he can relate to future worsening climate changes.

The best is to raise the kids directly with those values so they are footed deep and they don’t have to sacrifice anything to change. And that’s my approach with my kids. Raising Socioenvironmentally responsible citizens.

All so while I’m buying every TSLA I can and every Tesla I need, because Musk is the only socioenvironmentally responsible CEO I am aware of.

 

[Causalien]

And the neurosurgeon was deeply arguing against my long and hold arguments saying that it is not how big money is made in stock market. That it is by daytrading buying low and selling high daily to make 1-2% with each trade.

He is excellent at doing a scoliosis surgery in less than 2 hours but don’t understand at all the buy and hold philosophy.

There might be a subcategory of excellent day traders but for us common mortals not living on Wallstreet, buy and hold of an excellent company after due diligence seems like the best way of long term growth.

I believe that this is the new con of this generation. Daytrading 1~2% daily.
I heard the same thing coming from some people I consider contrarian indicators. As in, their records are so abysmal, that they have a 70% chance to be wrong.

If they only stop and think about it for a second, 1% daily is 3700% annual return.
There are only 29% of professional fund managers who can beat the index return of 7%~10%. How many zeros after the decimal point of an elite does someone with 3700% annual return belong to? The guy will be known as even holier than Warren Buffett or Elon Musk. Heck, forget starting a company, just day trade.