Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[bkp_duke]

It's very possible that the cast structure is stronger than the equivalent parts today, so an accident would probably already need to be fairly severe to damage it, meaning you're already going to have significant repair work in that type of accident anyway.

Yes, it's different. Yes, it might have problems. But that could be why nobody else has pursued it much. It may actually turn out to be better for the rare cases where there are heavy accidents.

Probably lots of engineers never fully considered the thought out fully--they hit the "that's a bad idea" block early on and their brain stopped. Often times, closed thinking is the only impediment to a revolutionary idea.

While this is true of the center of the car (A pillars to C pillars - you want that area as stiff as possible), you want to make the areas outside of the center fold like an accordion in the event of a crash. It's this absorption of the kinetic energy by the crumple zones front and aft that result in far less force being transferred to the occupants of the car. So there is a fine balance needed for structural rigidity and crumpling in the event of a serious accident.

I would put good money on the fact that the Gigacast pieces are probably intentionally thinner outside the pillars, specifically so that they fold up properly in a crash.

 

[bkp_duke]

Tesla is "diversified" . . . autos . . . solar power . . . grid resilency . . . insurance . . .

Doesn't that count?

 

[Todd Burch]

While this is true of the center of the car (A pillars to C pillars - you want that area as stiff as possible), you want to make the areas outside of the center fold like an accordion in the event of a crash. It's this absorption of the kinetic energy by the crumple zones front and aft that result in far less force being transferred to the occupants of the car. So there is a fine balance needed for structural rigidity and crumpling in the event of a serious accident.

I would put good money on the fact that the Gigacast pieces are probably intentionally thinner outside the pillars, specifically so that they fold up properly in a crash.

I'm a mechanical engineer so I know--my point was just that I don't think there's going to be any more damage than you would have if the structure were 75 separate pieces instead, so I don't necessarily buy the argument that it's more work to repair.

In fact, I could see it being significantly less work and effort to repair. Currently, you might have to purchase a replacement subassembly or 25 separate parts to replace. With this new approach, you just get one replacement piece, cut off the crumpled part, and bolt the new one on. Remains to be seen whether that's more or less work, but I'm willing to bet both Elon and the Tesla engineers have thought quite a bit about this.

 

[Fobble]

Tesla is "diversified" . . . autos . . . solar power . . . grid resilency . . . insurance . . .

And software/AI too

Doesn't that count?

Yes and No. The "No" part is all under the same roof. If Elon does one silly tweet, all will spiral down the drain at the same time

 

[Curt Renz]

Jon Najarian was a regular guest of mine during the nineties when he was a market maker at the CBOE, and I made a daily visit there to conduct TV interviews. He's a good honest and highly knowledgeable man. His badge at the CBOE was DRJ, hence they call him Doc. My CBOE badge had my intitials CAR. Fun fact: Mike Singletary beat out Jon for a rookie linebacker job on the Chicago Bears in 1981.

CNBC - half hour ago:

 

[JRP3]

not gonna lie, that repair strategy sounds absurd. body shops are going to saw off chunks of the casted body, and bolt on new segments? i am very doubtful that will happen with any regularity or be remotely viable financially.

It's a good thing Teslas dont crash very often and will crash increasingly less often over time, because these battery structure and frame optimizations are reducing the modularity of the vehicle, and thus making it far more likely to be declared a total loss after an accident. the industry has been moving in that direction for a long time anyway, but these highly optimized designs exacerbate that trend to the extreme. ultimately it's a wonderful and revolutionary improvement, but decreased reparability is a legitimate downside.

I believe the opposite could be true, as other's have pointed out. If designed properly the outside casting will deform and absorb most of the force in most accidents. They will be removed from the central casting and new units bolted into place, possibly with high strength adhesives as well. This should reduce alignment issues and speed repairs. If the impact is so great that the main central casting is damaged that's a totalled vehicle no matter the construction method.

 

[Queeg500]

I’m going to guess that Elon and his engineering teams have already weighed up the pros and cons of moving to castings.
In more detail than we have.

 

[dww12]

Why would you put it off? There’ll always be a new improvement to keep waiting for for the next ten years.

Because I already have 2018 and 2019 P3Ds and two early CT orders. A Y gets me a hitch and better winter range, a 4680 Y gets me that plus I can get to Tulsa w/o having to go through OKC from Dallas.

 

[adiggs]

What about the Plaid X? That's what I'm waiting for! Bought an X75D iin 2018, then bought a bit of TSLA... You can guess the rest of the story, so now I want to send a little something back to Tesla by buying a plaid X and discounting my used 2018 X to a friend.

Plaid X - that might be my upgrade from current Model X as well. mmmm

 

[StealthP3D]

not gonna lie, that repair strategy sounds absurd. body shops are going to saw off chunks of the casted body, and bolt on new segments?

No, the body is not cast aluminum, just the frame.

I don't see anything absurd about it.

 

[dc_h]

Have you guys actually seen the buildings being built at Shanghai? You really think they are not planning to do the new batteries in the largest market AS FAST AS POSSIBLE?

I guess someone doesn’t really understand the sandbagging that Elon needs to do. It’s the biggest sandbagging in history!

Agreed, no moats, faster boats! Elon will focus on speed of innovation. Fast followers will survive and the rest are doomed. Nobody has a breakout fast follower car yet. VW Group is selling cars in Norway and maybe Polestar. Slow followers who don't even have battery supplies yet include Ford, GM, Toyota, Honda. I don't think any of them have a path to a cost effective and scalable EV solution. Amazing how much open road Tesla has the next 5 years. The big challenge still is how fast can they build new plants, create battery supply and design more cars to fill out the offerings. A global developing market car out of China and a European style hatchback would increase their addressable market share by millions of cars annually.

• Berlin opens March\April 2021: Initial Casted chassis with 4860 batteries start production by June\July.
• Austin opens May 2021 with initial production starting August and producing Semi & CyberTruck?
• Fremont Plaid October 2021 with 4860 batteries. Possibly all SX cars get new chassis end of 2021.
• Austin opens Model Y assembly line and paint shop mid 2022 when 4860 battery production is standardized.
• Fremont Shanghai line updates for Model 3Y lines in 2022.
• The $25,000 Model likely revealed in mid 2021 from China & new plants announced for 2022
  • Until a new car is announced, is there a reason to announce any new regional plants?
  • The China & Berlin cars are needed to get to 5 million cars annually
  • China & Berlin models will be built in next next generation plant after Berlin

 

[Ipe]

Because I already have 2018 and 2019 P3Ds and two early CT orders. A Y gets me a hitch and better winter range, a 4680 Y gets me that plus I can get to Tulsa w/o having to go through OKC from Dallas.

Why, I’ll betcha that Elon can build
you a Supercharger in Mcalester just fine.

 

[Compton]

Waymo seems to expanding the fully driverless taxi service in the coming weeks and months. Interesting to see how Tesla's rewrite performs in comparison - taking of course into account that Waymo is targeting a limited geographical area whereas Tesla is going for a more universal system.

Waymo's near term progress would probably affect the share price if they are out with an impressive system before the rewrite launches (and hopefully really performs). A rewrite not living up to the hype would be a double short term whammy in this context.

Waypoint - The official Waymo blog: Waymo is opening its fully driverless service to the general public in Phoenix

 

[LTC_RRR]

WHAT THE ______ is a “FORAA”?????? Why doncha do some speeltchek like us do?

Wrote no nice Moderator ever.

For a correction, that was not very nice. Still, it's better than corrections on other fora

 

[LTC_RRR]

More totaled vehicles, thus more battery packs for the DYI crowd.

FTFY ->DIY

 

[DurandalAI]

People are debating the merits of repair costs on cast car parts vs stamped car parts and safety.
1. Elon has stated that safety is the first priority when designing vehicles, so don't worry about crumple zone issues, they're engineering for it.
2. If Tesla is going to have Tesla insurance, they're not going to want to have to underwrite expensive repair costs that come as a result of having cast parts vs stamped parts... UNLESS the savings benefit is so great in manufacturing that it offsets the increase in repair costs.
3. Tesla places a large emphasis on active safety, which means as AP safety features get better, the likelihood of getting into a collision is reduced, and the likelihood of the Tesla or Tesla driver being at fault is reduced, so in most states it's the at-fault party that pays for repairs. So, reduced collision rate means less repairs per mile traveled, which is what Tesla insurance will care most about.

 

[BlackS]

Why would they even include Nikola with no products .... hmmm...oh yeah...its CNBS...paid advertising.

 

[BlackS]

 

[Chickenlittle]

People are debating the merits of repair costs on cast car parts vs stamped car parts and safety.
1. Elon has stated that safety is the first priority when designing vehicles, so don't worry about crumple zone issues, they're engineering for it.
2. If Tesla is going to have Tesla insurance, they're not going to want to have to underwrite expensive repair costs that come as a result of having cast parts vs stamped parts... UNLESS the savings benefit is so great in manufacturing that it offsets the increase in repair costs.
3. Tesla places a large emphasis on active safety, which means as AP safety features get better, the likelihood of getting into a collision is reduced, and the likelihood of the Tesla or Tesla driver being at fault is reduced, so in most states it's the at-fault party that pays for repairs. So, reduced collision rate means less repairs per mile traveled, which is what Tesla insurance will care most about.

Silly discussion if your frame is bent in collision almost always car is totalled

 

[bkp_duke]

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Why would they even include Nikola with no products .... hmmm...oh yeah...its CNBS...paid advertising.

WTF. Can CNBS be sued by Tesla shareholders for "clear and obvious bias"?

Asking for a friend.