OT
You may be thinking of what happens when airflow over props goes supersonic. It’s not a stall, but shock waves start forming in various places. The drag goes up a lot and efficiency drops.
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
You may be thinking of what happens when airflow over props goes supersonic. It’s not a stall, but shock waves start forming in various places. The drag goes up a lot and efficiency drops.
Tesla has reached, or will soon reach, near dimmer switch status with profit. Elon (and Zach) will slide the dimmer switch a percentage point or many to plow cash into growth, or show greater earnings (and thus head fake Wall Street for a capital raise or share price appreciation), so they can influence the market to create the greatest opportunities for Tesla to grow. The two greatest things people underestimate about Elon?
1. His ability see the future before anyone else (or create the one he thinks we need)
2. His economic intuition that allows him to play 4D chess to accelerate the mission
...pushes all chips to the center of the table...
I agree that there is far to much uncertainty to be talking about valuations in the many trillions of dollars at this point.
For example, When/if Tesla gets to a 20 million annual vehicle run rate, there is no chance in hell that ASP is going to be anywhere near $40K, It would be doing well to be over $25k even with attached software sales.
Autonomy is a huge wildcard. even if Tesla is first to have a commercially deployable L5 solution, it isn't the sort of thing that will be a permanent situation whereby they are the only L5 provider forever. It might take a while for another company to also reach L5, but it will only be a matter of when, not if. Could be 12 months, could be 3 or 5 years, but it will happen.
Once another L5 solution exists, it becomes a race to the bottom in terms of pricing/profitability (the inevitable "free" ad-supported model by someone like google). So while Tesla will reap huge margins in the interim, it is unlikely Wall Street would place a long term valuation that reflects the position that L5 autonomy is never achieved by anyone else, meaning margin generated by autonomy will very likely have a much lower valuation multiple attached to it.
Then there is the other wildcard: Government intervention. Governments in USA, China, Europe etc may judge autonomy to be such a transformational piece of technology that for the public good it is nationalised in some manner.
Last edited:
Bet TSLA
Active Member
Ha! It was the same with Steve Jobs. He'd say very clearly exactly what his goals were for Apple and what they were going to do (usually in general terms, not regarding specific products) and then people would go to extreme lengths to figure out what he really meant. And it was always exactly what he said. The subterfuge was that there was no subterfuge.
This is even more true of Elon, because at heart he's an engineer. As an engineer, if you don't grapple directly with the truths of the universe you lose every time. Sometimes you lose anyway. That's how you gain the wisdom to win the next time.
Here's some light evening humor, and perhaps another piece of the S&P inclusion puzzle???...............it will happen when 'only a select few know about and have adequate time to act on the information'. FTFY
In addition to the 10Q and the Short Shorts cryptic message pointing towards S&P500 inclusion IMO, I will share what I believe has been another very consistent/reliable weather vane for TSLA share price movement, and one that also recently pointed to another near term TSLA upward move. Our broker called us last week 'to see how we were doing', and 'if we were happy with our current position in the market'. First time we have heard from him since just before the last long upward move started just a little over a year ago. We have a Household Investment Bylaw very similar to ARKK......except our position on TSLA is capped at 98% of our portfolio - a bit higher than ARKK's at 10%.And on a couple other occasions prior to that we received similar calls encouraging us to consider lightening up on our TSLA position since first accumulating shares in that account in early 2013 - and almost without fail, a nice move started soon after. Coincidence?
This is another example of the value of Chamath's focus of 'Observing the Present' instead of getting caught in the past or future for market observation. The usually accepted Social conditioning has attempted to program me over the years to either take my broker's advice and sell some of my position (so that WS can pick it up cheap before a move up), or to reject my broker entirely after seeing the potential for manipulation over time and move our account elsewhere. Observing the Moment means I tell my wife "Hey, our broker just called again suggesting we reduce our TSLA position.......standby for lift off!"
I would imagine my experience is not unique among the members of TMC..........and it means that there are a handful of folks that have sufficient time to act on the information before it is unveiled to the rest of us. And where better to hide a forecastable move (spike from S&P500 inclusion) than right before an election that has caused many small investors to want to reduce their positions and potential down-side exposure - which further enhances WS's ability to pick up a lot of shares that would very likely be sold off just before that inclusion. My thoughts regarding the call from our broker............TSLA Longs are holding stronger than expected and disproportionally reducing their market exposure before the election using other stocks than TSLA
Bloomberg - Are you a robot?
According to famous Tesla short short, David Einhorn, tech is in an enormous bubble. He says in this Bloomberg article:
“The question at hand is where are we in the psychology of this bubble?” the head of hedge fund Greenlight Capital wrote in an Oct. 27 note, seen by Bloomberg. “Our working hypothesis, which might be disproven, is that September 2, 2020 was the top and the bubble has already popped. If so, investor sentiment is in the process of shifting from greed to complacency.”
The article goes on to say:
"This isn’t the first time Einhorn has flagged a tech bubble. In early 2016, he “prematurely identified what we thought was a bubble,” he wrote in the letter. It’s been a difficult road for Greenlight recently. The fund is down 16.1% through September, and has been trying to recoup losses that began in 2015. As of Jan. 1, the firm managed $2.6 billion, down from a peak of $12 billion."
What might we surmise from the timing of this article?
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
"I felt a great disturbance in the Force, as if millions of voices suddenly cried out in terror and were suddenly silenced*. I fear something terrible has happened." -- Obi-Wan Ryan
Q: If AJ turns bullish, does he have to eat his $10 hat?
Cheers!
That Einhorn sucks as a fund manager?
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
So someone actually mentioned after seeing this there was an "Opposite Einhorn Fund" that just does the opposite of whatever that guy says to do- and it's up quite a bit.
Curious if that was true I spent a minute googling and it got me to this video while is both hilarious and fairly thread relevant-
(and mentioned partway through, by Ross Gerber, that yes there's such a fund too)
https://twitter.com/NCBirbhan/status/1318783208520093696
Krugerrand
Meow
I find it extraordinarily funny that not in the the very distant past, people were twisting themselves inside out claiming Tesla would never see a 1T evaluation while they remained walking the Earth.
"I felt a great disturbance in the Force, as if millions of voices suddenly cried out in terror and were suddenly silenced*. I fear something terrible has happened." -- Obi-Wan Ryan
Q: If AJ turns bullish, does he have to eat his $10 hat?
Cheers!
If AJ turns bullish then at least it won’t be a dunce cap any longer.
lafrisbee
Active Member
That's back when you all were poor!
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
"Tesla Launches New “Tesla Energy Plan” in UK" | Tesla Daily w. Rob Maurer
Mo City
Active Member
If Tesla achieves L5 in the next 3 years, they could own the field for a decade or more.
The supposed end result of autonomy being ubiquitous would likely take a very long time. IMO, 12 months, 3 years and 5 years aren't even in the picture.
Mo City
Active Member
Elon tweeting about Jack In The Box (NASDAQ JACK).
Oh boy.
Oh boy.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
Your thinking is the reverse of mine when you say the Average Selling Price "would be doing well" to be over $25K. I look at it in the opposite manner, that Tesla would be doing well to get the Average Selling Price down to 25K. The goal is to increase manufacturing efficiencies to the point they can be sold profitably at a low price. The goal is to make very desirable cars at a price that ICE cannot compete. Once the price hits the point that ICE cars are utterly uncompetitive and undesirable, there is no point in lowering it further. Any manufacturing efficiencies will flow to the bottom line or to other investments.
To realize how far Tesla will be able to reduce the cost of manufacture, it's necessary to forget your preconceived ideas of how much a car is worth. Because Tesla will shatter those preconceptions with how cheaply they will be able to make superior cars. They won't do it by using low quality and low grade motors, batteries, suspensions, seats, paint, etc. No. They will do it by using first-principles thinking to increase the speed, efficiency and quality of manufacture. Combined with a lean organization, very low spending on advertising/publicity and the lowest warranty expense in the business, no one doing business the old way will be able to compete. Costs will come down in a manner more similar to computers, big screen TV's and digital cameras. So be prepared for margins to expand dramatically as the cost to manufacture continues to decline and there is no need to lower prices further.
Continuing to lower the price below the point of high-volume competitiveness would be pointless. Additionally, it would reduce their taxi business.
I’m still amazed how many, even long time investors in Tesla and in general, can’t seem to hear what Musk is saying. And they think they are hearing something else or that they know better.
“ we want to be the best at manufacturing, THAT IS OUR GOAL”
If you can’t understand what that means, just think of what his companies are doing. Manufacturing at the highest levels, products used outside the planet, products used on the planet and products used inside the humans that inhabit this planet.
They will reach that goal, as everyone else is sleeping and got complacent.
Don’t worry everyone, 2030 will come. And some of us might even make it till then and hopefully a few years after.
My only regret when I’ll pass is that I won’t see what’s next, for this ridiculous species that I am part of.
Enjoy the ride, Nothing is Forever!
“ we want to be the best at manufacturing, THAT IS OUR GOAL”
If you can’t understand what that means, just think of what his companies are doing. Manufacturing at the highest levels, products used outside the planet, products used on the planet and products used inside the humans that inhabit this planet.
They will reach that goal, as everyone else is sleeping and got complacent.
Don’t worry everyone, 2030 will come. And some of us might even make it till then and hopefully a few years after.
My only regret when I’ll pass is that I won’t see what’s next, for this ridiculous species that I am part of.
Enjoy the ride, Nothing is Forever!
I think it is time to issue a Share Price Tsunami warning folks!
There is a lot of energy that has been put into the Tesla ecosystem in the last few weeks. All that energy is going somewhere. The SP and volumes are becoming eerily quieter. It is like watching the tide go out when it should be coming in. Almost as if all this energy is being transferred to an unseen wave on the horizon.
If I were enjoying a day at the beach (on a recently purchased tropical island) I would consider moving to much higher ground. As a long-term investor, I have significantly increased my sell limit orders (on the few shares I might be willing to part with temporarily). That is just in case this wave arrives while I am otherwise occupied. You have been warned.
[Disclaimer: I have dreadful powers of prediction with TSLA on a short-term basis]
There is a lot of energy that has been put into the Tesla ecosystem in the last few weeks. All that energy is going somewhere. The SP and volumes are becoming eerily quieter. It is like watching the tide go out when it should be coming in. Almost as if all this energy is being transferred to an unseen wave on the horizon.
If I were enjoying a day at the beach (on a recently purchased tropical island
) I would consider moving to much higher ground. As a long-term investor, I have significantly increased my sell limit orders (on the few shares I might be willing to part with temporarily). That is just in case this wave arrives while I am otherwise occupied. You have been warned.[Disclaimer: I have dreadful powers of prediction with TSLA on a short-term basis]
How are other car companies supposed to compete with this? Not only has range gone up a ton, but they are cheaper too.
Tesla Model 3 ‘refresh’ EPA ratings reveal efficiency improvements over 2019, 2020 variants
Tesla Model 3 ‘refresh’ EPA ratings reveal efficiency improvements over 2019, 2020 variants
Similar threads
- Locked
- Locked
