Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[printf42]

Another Elon tweet:

Urf is so smōl

Last time I remember Elon use the word “smōl” was at Aug 26th, SP was at $412, in five days it shoots up to ATH $500+

Could be unrelated, but history repeats, just saying.

 

[mrmage]

So does this mean that Tesla is sharing their battery technology? If so, does this mean they will lose their competitive advantage?

Count on Tesla to do what’s best to for the mission. Licensing battery tech reduces carbon emissions for renewable energy.

I inferred that third party battery vendors would be building tabless when Elon said something to the effect that Tesla would be making only one of the battery variations itself.

No need to fear about Tesla’s lead though. The battery as a structural element, cost efficiencies, single castings, and certainly the pace of innovation ensures that Tesla will maintain its lead for the foreseeable future.

Besides, I’m sure Tesla holds many more cards in its hand besides those shown on battery day.

Now, every single EV manufacturer will be indirectly paying royalties to Tesla through battery licenses. Wonder what the battery license revenue will be over the next five years?

Unfortunately patent license revenue won’t really count towards profits, because patent royalties are limited time events that disappear after just 20 years. /s.

Never worked out the numbers before, but if Tesla licensed it for 2%, that could eventually add around .5% royalties from the entire EV market (assuming batteries are 25% of the cost) excluding Tesla’s share. That’s not chump change.

 

[jerry33]

So does this mean that Tesla is sharing their battery technology? If so, does this mean they will lose their competitive advantage?

Tesla will likely be purchasing most (or perhaps all) of those batteries. Also, just because it's tabless doesn't mean the manufacturing process will be as efficient.

 

[CorneliusXX]

That's an odd comment. Popular cylindrical battery cell formats generally have a lifespan measured in many decades (if not more than a century). Tesla introduced the 2170 cell to the world just three years ago in the Model 3. Since that time it has been adopted by many high-end flashlight makers, power tool makers and others that can benefit from it's high energy and relatively compact form factor.

The 2170 cell has become suddenly popular since Tesla introduced it in 2017 and will not go away in any of our lifetimes without a fundamental battery technology break-through (like solid state batteries). Even then, it probably will be around for decades to come.

I'd assume the reason for longevity of cell formats is due to the standardisation required to meet the needs of the billions of appliances that need regular battery replacement.

I don't see why this would be consistent when it comes to vehicle battery packs as the the full pack would be replaced rather than the individual cells.

That said, I don't see Tesla shutting off any production capacity in any format while they are supply constrained - but this is a different reason to the historical one. 18650s might be shut off if they refresh all S&X packs with Roadrunner cells and the new packs are backwards compatible.

 

[jerry33]

Unfortunately patent license revenue won’t really count towards profits, because patent royalties are limited time events that disappear after just 20 years. /s.

While true, new patents and processes will take their place. Or there can be the same move as happened to copyright where the owner can keep them effectively forever--only takes a bit of "legislation".

 

[Tslynk67]

Another Elon tweet:

Last time I remember Elon use the word “smōl” was at Aug 26th, SP was at $412, in five days it shoots up to ATH $500+

Could be unrelated, but history repeats, just saying.

Could be right, but the amount we read into Elon's Tweets is beyond obsessive

Even the JitB stuff (which be continued with) was seen as an S&P reference... in all seriousness, it is perhaps the best moment S&P are going to get, if we get to January without a crash, if we hit 500k deliveries, when the EPS is way up and definitively, without fancy interpretations, profits without regulatory credits, then we will break-out of this channel.

But maybe the S&P don't care about the stock price? Who knows...

In the meantime, $TSLA popped a bit compared to the index, which a rare thing recently and very welcome...

 

[Tes La Ferrari]

If posts on this TMC thread had BB’s, I have noticed the volume has dropped below the Lower BB and the 50 day moving average over the last week.

just like TSLA - stay long TMC - don’t worry about a bit of volatility. It’s a high quality, place to be.

HODL TSLA. HODL TMC.

 

[jhm]

I wonder if they'll start making 2170's tabless? If you're building a new line why not?

Why are they called "tabless," when in fact they have lots of little tabs that fold down on each other?

 

[Tslynk67]

Nota bene: MP is currently $417.50

 

[Robocop]

Why are they called "tabless," when in fact they have lots of little tabs that fold down on each other?

Surprised Elon didn't name them "Supertab" or "Megatab".

 

[amolina]

Polestar recalls almost all Polestar 2 electric cars over inverter and battery issues - Electrek
So much for competition. More reminder for the market that battery technology is not easy.
Older OEM's cant just come and take TESLA's throne.

EDIT: In fairness, Polestar is a new startup with much more than just Volvo and GEELY

 

[MP3Mike]

Why are they called "tabless," when in fact they have lots of little tabs that fold down on each other?

Because they aren't welding a tab to the strip. It is just the edge of the strip, cut/scored and folded.

 

[Cape Coddess]

Interesting...

"...the Wuling HongGuang Mini EV clocked sale of 9,150 units in August, its second full month of sales.

The boxy EV sees huge sales numbers because it comes at $4,200, a fraction of Tesla's $42,691 price tag for Model 3, FT reports.

The HonGuang Mini EV is a joint-venture product between General Motors Company (NYSE: GM), SAIC Motor, and Liuzhou Wuling Motors Co Ltd."

China EVs Are Catching Up With Tesla

 

[larmor]

Polestar recalls almost all Polestar 2 electric cars over inverter and battery issues - Electrek
So much for competition. More reminder for the market that battery technology is not easy.
Older OEM's cant just come and take TESLA's throne.

EDIT: In fairness, Polestar is a new startup with much more than just Volvo and GEELY

In complete fairness, polestar has volvo backing, and legacy automakers will be able to easily flip the switch to EVs, many little birds told me this over the past ten years when researching and following tesla...

 

[Krugerrand]

Ford has pooled with someone.


Q:
That's very helpful. Thanks. And I think you commented that because of the cruiser recall company, definitely you're going to have a CO2 compliance cost this year. Are you anticipating a similar level of cost in the fourth quarter as was realized in 3Q, and then perhaps more importantly, can you discuss if you think this issue will be resolved, and if there is risk to any of your other hybrid or BEV products?

A:
So, from a cost standpoint, I'll start with that. As I said earlier, it's about $400 million for the quarter. We do expect some costs in the fourth quarter, somewhere between $100 million to $200 million. So that's the impact we see as it is today. And that does also -- that includes the impact of the pooling effort that we're going to have to undertake for our passenger vehicles in Europe.

Q:
Okay. And finally, have you disclosed or can you disclose who the pooling agreement is with? I think it will become a public record at some point in the year?

A:
We're not going to do that today. Thanks.

Who could it be...

Hmm... They left an unasked question; Is this a one-time item?

 

[Pezpunk]

Interesting...

"...the Wuling HongGuang Mini EV clocked sale of 9,150 units in August, its second full month of sales.

The boxy EV sees huge sales numbers because it comes at $4,200, a fraction of Tesla's $42,691 price tag for Model 3, FT reports.

The HonGuang Mini EV is a joint-venture product between General Motors Company (NYSE: GM), SAIC Motor, and Liuzhou Wuling Motors Co Ltd."

China EVs Are Catching Up With Tesla

the car costs $4200. Tesla worrying about this car is like Apple worrying that ballpoint pens are outselling iPhones.

 

[Cape Coddess]

the car costs $4200. Tesla worrying about this car is like Apple worrying that ballpoint pens are outselling iPhones.

Hmm...maybe. But I was more interested to see that GM was involved.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

The second volume starts drying it up, Tesla get's walked down

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Interesting...

"...the Wuling HongGuang Mini EV clocked sale of 9,150 units in August, its second full month of sales.

The boxy EV sees huge sales numbers because it comes at $4,200, a fraction of Tesla's $42,691 price tag for Model 3, FT reports.

The HonGuang Mini EV is a joint-venture product between General Motors Company (NYSE: GM), SAIC Motor, and Liuzhou Wuling Motors Co Ltd."

China EVs Are Catching Up With Tesla

This is precisely the kind of news we should be praying for. I don't want Tesla playing around at that end of the market, or even in the Model 2 level.

The only reason Tesla will build a $25k car is to make sure the market as a whole does it. If there are already a handful of millions of quality $20K EV options being sold 3 years from now... no need.

Tesla is iPhone, everyone else can build the Androids.

 

[EVortex]

Hmm...maybe. But I was more interested to see that GM was involved.

GM? That’s the kiss of death.