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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Consider the mission. So what's the best way to rack up miles on every Tesla? Sell it to a private party and hope they share it occasionally, if at all? I'm not getting the sense that Tesla owners up to this point are ready to send their 1st child out just yet. (Although I would.)
And if FSD produces a higher Tesla Network revenue to replace (that "$100K" future value), then I don't see a capital issue here. Human and Material Resources are the real bottlenecks to growth, not money, (so I hear). That being said... FSD would need to be right on the horizon otherwise it would affect financials as you say, starting with a few small towns as our only real indicator of timing. I've seen how FSD changes over the past 3 years, we are near. Dirt roads, parking lots in rain, roundabouts... I didn't think this capability would arrive so soon. Maybe I'm underestimating the timeline and this all goes down next year.
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Maybe you could still buy one, but I bet only if the car were purchased for business use as a fleet driver, and contractually within x% - 100% miles driven. Again, IMO base on my points above. History shows that Roadster connection to grid was not used by early consumers per Elon. So they may already have concluded that the consumer choice to network their personal vehicle for the interim as an Uber-type Driver could be a non-starter. It was considered, but I don't see that discussion any longer. And low enrollment would be bad PR for Tesla FSD.
Like TSLA shares, I say buy the FSD vehicles and hold them. This global shift in ownership is how they will appreciate in value. A few of us will get to appreciate that freedom once there are no more new ones to be sold (or fully owned). Then we'll see safety charts along with a new chart showing Electric Vehicle Utilization or EVU. (I'm coining the phrase now. It's a take on MU for Machine Utilization which is the only real Factory indicator that matters, from my experience).
insaneoctane
Well-Known Member
While most on this forum consider $TSLA a solid (and safe) investment....This article, WOW. This pension fund has almost $1B of Tesla:
Tesla, Nio, Nikola, Zoom — Stocks The Largest US Pension Fund Is Betting On
Tesla, Nio, Nikola, Zoom — Stocks The Largest US Pension Fund Is Betting On
Krugerrand
Meow
So to be clear; not a one time thing?
Thanks as always for contributing via the most boring occupation on the planet. Way to take one for the team.
A friend asked me why TSLA had not maintained positive momentum since the split. He offered up a conspiracy theory about the revenge of the shorts manipulating the SP to teach Elon a lesson for messing with them during the split. Ok, I am all for an interesting conspiracy theory, but I just had to laugh at this one. I just said, “HODL and patience.”
Mo City
Active Member
For some people, if TSLA isn't appreciating at least 10% per month, there must be a conspiracy holding it down.
lafrisbee
Active Member
I like those people
Ford is ‘self-help’ story, UBS says
UBS, geniuses.
“Ford’s new management team can drive earnings by reducing structural cost in (North America) and restructuring the international businesses from the current loss situation,” they said.
There are “structural challenges,” however, and “Ford is a laggard to (General Motors Co. (GM) ) and other global OEMs in electrification,” which likely will require higher investments, weighing on free cash flow in the coming years, they said.
Moreover, increasing competition in the full-size pickup segment, including from Tesla Inc.’s (TSLA) Cybertruck and launches from EV startups, “could put margins of Ford’s #1 cash cow under pressure, the UBS analysts said.
UBS, geniuses.
“Ford’s new management team can drive earnings by reducing structural cost in (North America) and restructuring the international businesses from the current loss situation,” they said.
There are “structural challenges,” however, and “Ford is a laggard to (General Motors Co. (GM) ) and other global OEMs in electrification,” which likely will require higher investments, weighing on free cash flow in the coming years, they said.
Moreover, increasing competition in the full-size pickup segment, including from Tesla Inc.’s (TSLA) Cybertruck and launches from EV startups, “could put margins of Ford’s #1 cash cow under pressure, the UBS analysts said.
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
I go all over the place. Ranging 400 to 450 and different time.
One of my big failings in hindsight is buying the same strike and same expiry. A large expiry event forces irrational moves.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Tesla's target growth rate is 3.44% per month (which is a 50% CAGR).
Over the past 60 months, TSLA's compounded monthly growth rate averages 3.78%. BTW, that's a 56% CAGR (sustained).
Care to guess what the CAGR is on 10% per mth growth?
314% annual
CRKR'ers.
Cheers!
I like the discussion around Tesla starting to produce pure Robotaxi vehicles. While I think this is a certainty, it has a timeline and has a calculation to the financial health of the company as well as to the mission.
Simply put, what is the earliest Tesla could put cars on the road as pure Robotaxi's? Determined by regulation as well as software development. Which one comes first? Most likely software dev which proves a ~10X safety improvement. Could be 6 months from now (radically optimistic in my opinion even for certain locales) to 1 year (maybe in some areas like around Fremont) or 2 years (getting more certain...). When is it approved by regulators? Some places already allow it so lets just do the calculation.
How much does a normal Tesla drive per day? 40 miles to 60 miles?
How much would a Robotaxi drive per day? 400 to 600 miles? We could call it 10X as much and then talk about price to see if demand would be there.
How much does it cost someone on average to use just rideshare per day on average? $10? Maybe $300 per month average. How about $5/day and $150/month.
What if all of those trips could be in a Tesla Robotaxi? Cut it in half? Maybe down to a quarter? Let's say $50/month and be conservative.
Now, how much would that cost Tesla to provide that service? Electricity cost, maintenance cost, insurance cost? Hard to say, but what if that cost was $20 per month for the Robotaxi service to operate in a locale. But even if it was $50/month and no margin, there are so many other planet, grid balancing and traffic benefits that it potentially outweighs those costs that are important to Tesla's mission.
Thinking about all of this, the timeline is still based on the first milestone of software development. But I'm certain that once they hit that milestone, Tesla will send *enough* Robotaxi's to a given locale, where regulation allows, and start the service as it has a much bigger impact to the mission as opposed to being something that might financially hurt.
The impact to Tesla's business will be material when the software development milestone convergence becomes certain. As I'm in AI and know a bit about the topic, I'm patiently watching the latest builds coming out and seeing the improvements as well as regressions. I don't have enough data points to confidently predict convergence yet, but that day is coming and very exciting.
Simply put, what is the earliest Tesla could put cars on the road as pure Robotaxi's? Determined by regulation as well as software development. Which one comes first? Most likely software dev which proves a ~10X safety improvement. Could be 6 months from now (radically optimistic in my opinion even for certain locales) to 1 year (maybe in some areas like around Fremont) or 2 years (getting more certain...). When is it approved by regulators? Some places already allow it so lets just do the calculation.
How much does a normal Tesla drive per day? 40 miles to 60 miles?
How much would a Robotaxi drive per day? 400 to 600 miles? We could call it 10X as much and then talk about price to see if demand would be there.
How much does it cost someone on average to use just rideshare per day on average? $10? Maybe $300 per month average. How about $5/day and $150/month.
What if all of those trips could be in a Tesla Robotaxi? Cut it in half? Maybe down to a quarter? Let's say $50/month and be conservative.
Now, how much would that cost Tesla to provide that service? Electricity cost, maintenance cost, insurance cost? Hard to say, but what if that cost was $20 per month for the Robotaxi service to operate in a locale. But even if it was $50/month and no margin, there are so many other planet, grid balancing and traffic benefits that it potentially outweighs those costs that are important to Tesla's mission.
Thinking about all of this, the timeline is still based on the first milestone of software development. But I'm certain that once they hit that milestone, Tesla will send *enough* Robotaxi's to a given locale, where regulation allows, and start the service as it has a much bigger impact to the mission as opposed to being something that might financially hurt.
The impact to Tesla's business will be material when the software development milestone convergence becomes certain. As I'm in AI and know a bit about the topic, I'm patiently watching the latest builds coming out and seeing the improvements as well as regressions. I don't have enough data points to confidently predict convergence yet, but that day is coming and very exciting.
Rivian configurator is online and TMC members are sharing their configurations @ Latest Rivian news. More power to Rivian to help get rid of ICE, but I still don’t see them as a significant competitive threat to Cybertruck.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Again- "regulation" is an imaginary red herring for putting an RT in service.
They could put them on the road today without need for any further approval in like half a dozen US states.
Except they don't actually have working RTs to do that with.
The software is 100% of the roadblock to doing this in at least some jurisdictions (or if you listen to the real pessimists, the sensor suite is....but either way it's not "regulation")
I believe that once it becomes apparent that FSD is doing good and would soon gain regulatory approval, many entrepreneurs would take the risk and set up fleets. Either way, very low chance that Tesla has to use their own capital
About this EVU indicator that I suspect Tesla already has in use.
Driving becomes The Newest Factory where we are the Units and vans/buses are Lots or Batches in our little Factory. I estimate 588 units/Semi full load (using 136 lb avg per unit). So Semi's matter here because the real measure is efficiency of moving mass around (or eliminate the movement for another story). This is different than cents per mile as we think of today.
Fleet Operations typically ask "Do you have the right quantity and types of vehicles available at the right location and at the right time?"
So clearly there will be rural locations with a low EVU. Maybe that's where private use could clean up if you happened to own one in Santa Claus, Arizona. (Someone just mentioned that actually.)
Driving becomes The Newest Factory where we are the Units and vans/buses are Lots or Batches in our little Factory. I estimate 588 units/Semi full load (using 136 lb avg per unit). So Semi's matter here because the real measure is efficiency of moving mass around (or eliminate the movement for another story). This is different than cents per mile as we think of today.
Fleet Operations typically ask "Do you have the right quantity and types of vehicles available at the right location and at the right time?"
So clearly there will be rural locations with a low EVU. Maybe that's where private use could clean up if you happened to own one in Santa Claus, Arizona. (Someone just mentioned that actually.)
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