Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Sudre]

Stock Option Max Pain
Max Pain for TSLA was around $410 before the S&P data came out.

I would expect the MMs to try their hardest to work the price down by Friday to minimize their losses. Given how quickly volume trailed off yesterday, they might have a decent shot at doing that.

Beginning next week, who knows. Perhaps we see the walk up we are all expecting/hoping for start.

I really wish people would stop using the printed max pain as the gold standard.
The true max pain has probably already moved to $440 today... or just under it.
THEY can move it really quick by offering prices they seem like bargains when compared to the option calculators.... and they'll still make a fortune.

Note yesterday PUTs (remember how Puts were not selling) suddenly started going crazy and they now backup all Calls up to $440. SO THEY really do not care about that $410 number anymore.

 

[bkp_duke]

Honestly, I'm surprised. It's a great idea (for a company like Tesla), but at the same time they're an OEM, and vertical integration is almost a foreign concept. Them branching outside of the car assembling process at all is just shocking to me.

It's reactionary / FOMO on GM's part.

However . . . I hate insurance co's with an unbridled passion. So anyone that forces more competition on them is doing just fine in my book.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

The Great Battle of 456!

 

[jeewee3000]

Copy Cat. GM to offer insurance based on driving.
GM to offer auto insurance that uses data from connected vehicles to price rates — CNBC

This is good for TSLA since Wall street 'analysts' will think more highly of Tesla Insurance's potential since GM is doing it.

 

[gabeincal]

The Great Battle of 456!

Done.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Done.

May those who died rest in peace.

I'm starting to think I shoulda bought a hell of a lot more calls yesterday......

 

[Paul_SF]

Wonder if Geico can help Tesla with their insurance to go national, IF Berkshire owns some Tesla now.

 

[woodisgood]

From here until s&p inclusion, the stock is basically on a bid alert.

Pent up demand will absorb most of the sell offs
We get based on trivial issues.
That’s my opinion until it proves otherwise.

One could be even recklessly bullish in this period.
Haha , at your own peril.

That’s too easy. MMs never let it work out that way. If everyone thinks something is going to happen, they will find a way to alter the outcome.

Remember, they know what all the bets are.

 

[gabeincal]

May those who died rest in peace.

I'm starting to think I shoulda bought a hell of a lot more calls yesterday......

Well they are still reasonably priced...

Edit: Just converted some TSLA into 6 x Mar 19 '21 $700s. Target: 300%

 

[Drax7]

That’s too easy. MMs never let it work out that way. If everyone thinks something is going to happen, they will find a way to alter the outcome.

Remember, they know what all the bets are.

You are probably wrong in this case, don’t second guess yourself.

 

[Opus BC fan]

Honestly, I'm surprised. It's a great idea (for a company like Tesla), but at the same time they're an OEM, and vertical integration is almost a foreign concept. Them branching outside of the car assembling process at all is just shocking to me.

I'm thinking this was expectable. It seems to me most of the OEMs got into the finance business for profit long ago (a big part of the reason they 'needed' bailouts when the banking collapse happened in 2008). Insurance is another way for them to derive some revenue while they fail at manufacturing and innovating.

Tesla's motivation for getting into insurance has looked different to me. I think Tesla was motivated to block insurance companies from price gouging Tesla owners.

and of course, I continue to hold, watch and enjoy the show that is TSLA

 

[woodisgood]

You are probably wrong in this case, don’t second case yourself.

If I’m wrong it will work out better for me financially.

If I’m right I get to hold on to my extremely cynical and conspiratorial view of the market.

Win-win

 

[elasalle]

Wonder if Geico can help Tesla with their insurance to go national, IF Berkshire owns some Tesla now.

If Buffett gets TSLA, does TSLA get the Taffy

Will believe it when I see it. If ego set aside could happen. Also BRK has BYD.

 

[ZeApelido]

All this talk about Adam Jonas and Warren Buffet being bullish Tesla is making me nervous. Both are worse than S&P500 performance over last 10 years.

 

[brantse]

Wonder if Geico can help Tesla with their insurance to go national, IF Berkshire owns some Tesla now.

I think it's the other way around. Maybe WEB is looking to align himself with Elon and Tesla, hoping that he can get Tesla to partner with Geico to protect his moat. The insurance business is clearly one that's buzzing with lots of new, enterprising entrants (ie. LMND and Chamath's IPOC).

 

[H Mak]

Hey this is looking good

 

[StealthP3D]

Looks like 450 is the wall "they" really want to stay under... I do have a few sold CCs I'm probably going to want to roll up a little bit before Friday... I'm ok with them being called they're not core shares, but rolling up nearer the actual Friday close nets me more profit on the sale than leaving them alone would... (and obviously more the higher it goes) trick is 440, 445, or 450...

How are those price targets working out for you?

 

[Captkerosene]

Replace Tesla with Apple in the above - off the top of my head I remember the old boys didn't want to invest in Apple but let one of their younger colleagues go for it. Worked out nicely.

Perhaps more of the same?

Also they like good execution, one of their aims is to free managers/owners (of smaller companies) of some of the finance hassles, instead just setting a rate of return for capital and keeping the managers in place.

Edit - I missed your Apple-specific point. was this true at the point WEB first invested? Could the old boys be adapting?

I went back and looked at AAPL's PE in 2016. It varied from a low of about ten to a high of about eighteen. I doubt he paid more than 15X on average. Same deal when he bought Coke - great company that was not appreciated by the market.

Buffett looks at AAPL and sees a "consumer product" company ... not a tech company. Almost like a cigarette company - where there are very high margins, very high brand loyalty and the product is addictive as hell.

Buffett has used the same playbook for 60 years. I don't think he's "adapting," it's just that a tech company fit into his model.

On the "people" issue, WEB has spent his life avoiding conduct that could subject him to criticism. As one of the richest men in the world he is the target of attacks from anyone with an internet connection. He doesn't want to give his enemies any openings. I personally enjoyed EM's comment about the "S.E.C." but that is not something that Buffett would want to associate himself with.

If I was forced to guess, I'd say WEB was buying oil and gas assets. He has experience in that arena and the prices are low.

 

[Runarbt]

I sold 30 420 Puts for December 18th. I'm fairly confident the SP news will keep us over 420. If we dip below and they all get assigned, I have enough Margin to cover the 3,000 shares, and I would then sell covered calls. In the meantime, the $52k I made will keep my bed nice and fluffy.

Hey - how do you sell so many puts? Do you really have free cash at hand to buy 3000 shares at $420? (1.26 million USD)
That's kinda bearish? I am all in - no spare cash at all.

I am trying to figure out how to sell puts on margin at Schwab, with my stock as security.. guess I will have to call and see if its possible at all?

 

[Pezpunk]

Hey this is looking good

View attachment 609484
Now 5% up

yes we all have access to stock tickers, thank you.