Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[traxila]

Question: Do the next 32 days represent a "once in a lifetime opportunity" for investing in TSLA calls?

Thinking of converting some shares to Jan/Feb/Mar 2021 OTM calls with the idea of selling them in the runup to Dec 21st.

I've resisted buying calls up to now but perhaps it's time to act outside the box.

Thoughts appreciated.

One could argue you are late to the game. Unless of course TSLA goes to 800 in the next 30 days. Or 1000.

This really has never happened before. Very hard to give good advice.

It is hard to get away from the fact that 50 billion in TSLA shares must be purchased and everyone knows it. The front running has just begun and already the sp is up 20%.

It is also true that there are huge players involved who will use all their considerable powers to cheapen the stock for purchase. They are pissed.

Proverbial irresistible force against immovable object.

So far, object is moving!

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Thanks all for the covered call conversation both in the AH here and in the other threads. Definitely going to explore this for the December peak of S&P buying. I was going to have to sell a few shares to fund my 2021 schemes and shenanigans, but now I might be able to leave all shares untouched with the few Jan/Feb calls I have plus a few CC's sold in December.

If SP really pops like we think it will, this should be a no brainer for most longs. And IV should be back in absolute chaos mode by the end of Dec so premiums will be much more attractive.

 

[smorgasbord]

Hopefully, selling above the claimed ATH won't still be that fun a thing for me soon:

 

[kanweg]

The stock has reached meme status level in Europe now. Screenshot with one 1c difference secured

 

[Cattledog]

Hopefully, selling above the claimed ATH won't still be that fun a thing for me soon:
View attachment 609900

View attachment 609901

Agree, no one should hoard all that fun.

 

[Unpilot]

That turd don't float

As a description of mr. jonas...that is about perfect.

 

[Paracelsus]

Should it be Buffet buying a stake i wonder what the impact would be. Does he push for a seat on the board? Do Tesla products get incorporated through the Berkshire conglomerate ( e.g. autobidder, megapacks in their energy cos. Solar roof and power wall in Clayton homes)? Can buffet accelerate lobbying efforts for direct vehicle sales?

Berkshire is so big that nearly every area in which Tesla plays there is a competitor and potential partner.

Elon is often criticized for not having a better filter for the comments he makes from time to time, but I would bet his feelings towards Buffett are even more sour than he has already stated. It wasn’t much of a stretch for many on TMC to connect the dots between Buffett’s coal investments that are transported in Buffett’s coal train investments to Buffett’s Nevada Energy investments at the time NVEnergy helped to derail Nevada residential and commercial solar incentives, which ultimately resulted in perhaps the final blow to Solar City. At that time it could be argued that Solar City was very well positioned to change the landscape of power generation and distribution in Nevada. The potential savings and the benefit for the environment was so great that some commercial properties such as MGM Grand bought their way out of their existing energy contracts to go solar anyways after this all went down.
Buffett can be praised as an investor, but it is difficult to not be reminded of the effects of those investment efforts on our environment every time another mile-long coal train unnecessarily races down the track towards the desert Southwest on a day so bright and sunny that the desert Southwest could have powered all of its electricity needs locally with solar and it could have been an exporter of solar power as well. Given Elon’s focus on a more sustainable future for the planet, I commend him for being as soft spoken as he has in the past towards Buffett, and I am hopeful Buffett’s position is completely hands off beyond helping to pour bucket loads of additional investment money into TSLA to help make up for time lost in our transition towards a more sustainable future

 

[vikings123]

The Buffett speculation really started in this forum. It does seem to be getting a lot of attention in social media.

I have no idea if that is true or not and we did call it speculative but it is definitely like adding oil to the fire.

As you put in your short term trades etc I will just caution folks on here to be cognizant of this dynamic. If you are all in just realize that Wall Street probably understands this Buffett dynamic and could use it as a sell the news event when and if Buffett says it’s NOT Tesla. Very similar to how we sold off when Tesla announced the ATM secondary offering. Think independently!

 

[SO16]

Elon is often criticized for not having a better filter for the comments he makes from time to time, but I would bet his feelings towards Buffett are even more sour than he has already stated. It wasn’t much of a stretch for many on TMC to connect the dots between Buffett’s coal investments that are transported in Buffett’s coal train investments to Buffett’s Nevada Energy investments at the time NVEnergy helped to derail Nevada residential and commercial solar incentives, which ultimately resulted in perhaps the final blow to Solar City. At that time it could be argued that Solar City was very well positioned to change the landscape of power generation and distribution in Nevada. The potential savings and the benefit for the environment was so great that some commercial properties such as MGM Grand bought their way out of their existing energy contracts to go solar anyways after this all went down.
Buffett can be praised as an investor, but it is difficult to not be reminded of the effects of those investment efforts on our environment every time another mile-long coal train unnecessarily races down the track towards the desert Southwest on a day so bright and sunny that the desert Southwest could have powered all of its electricity needs locally with solar and it could have been an exporter of solar power as well. Given Elon’s focus on a more sustainable future for the planet, I commend him for being as soft spoken as he has in the past towards Buffett, and I am hopeful Buffett’s position is completely hands off beyond helping to pour bucket loads of additional investment money into TSLA to help make up for time lost in our transition towards a more sustainable future

No doubt about Buffet. His true colors shined through in this video. As Elon said, Buffet isn’t the kind grandpa he likes to portray.

Watch JONATHAN SCOTT'S POWER TRIP on the PBS Video App

 

[st_lopes]

Can someone explain to the novice (me), what the really tall bars (blue box) represent? I know it is the spread for that transaction window (1 minute), but WHY would some shares be sold so cheap compared to others?

(big image, click to zoom)
View attachment 609604

It’s often options being exercised. The drop back to 450 is likely someone exercising a 450 call.

 

[LTC_RRR]

100% true. I’ve been investing since 2015, when the stock basically did nothing for 5 years yet I still believed strongly in the company and poured more money in. I have Dave Lee’s holy grail of investing: high income and high risk tolerance, . Cheers everyone, haven’t been on TMC in years, what a fantastic ride so far. HODL-ing until 2030!!

Love the avatar

 

[FS_FRA]

It always cracks me up to receives these from IB.... S&P news out and there are still analcyst (amidoinitrite?) with a sell or underperform rating

 

[traxila]

No doubt about Buffet. His true colors shined through in this video. As Elon said, Buffet isn’t the kind grandpa he likes to portray.

Watch JONATHAN SCOTT'S POWER TRIP on the PBS Video App

He is as cutthroat as they come.

And god forbid you threaten one of his moats or cash flows for whatever reason. He will try to destroy you.

Capitalist and politician’s son. Who was also a finance guy. He certainly developed a unique skillset.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Tickling $500 pre market. The question remains, will those that matter have the power to keep it below? Perhaps today but long term...no way in my opinion.

Dan

 

[CLK350]

But Canon and Nikon did well in the transition to digital, other companies like Olympus and Leica did OK. They even seem to be surviving the rise of the mobile phone camera age, competing with a camera that effectively comes free with the phone.

You have to be really careful with making analogies.

Disclosure: I worked for Canon 2001-2004 in their European Research Labs,

[OT] TDLR: Fuji has been wayyy more successful than Kodak in the digital transition. Too much success/ entrenched interests killed Kodak. Same for Mercedes et al in the car industry.

The ONE company to compare with Kodak in this regard is FujiFilm, part of the Fuji conglomerate. They never exited the film business, and also took up Polaroid's niche business in instant film and cameras, which is now a big success for photographers pro and casual alike.

More importantly Fuji scaled back the film business, BUT at the same time invested and innovated in the digital film aka sensor area. For a while their special sensors mounted in Nikon bodies under licensing were the go to indispensable cameras for pro photographers in the wedding business. Because they were the only ones with enough dynamic range to be able to render the subtleties of the white dresses.

Fuji also produced the first decent pocket digicam (F11 and F30, which achieved collector status) that pro photographers were happy to carry. *THEN* they realized there was a void in the market for more photographer centric cameras, which were by then only produced by Leica (and a feeble attempt by Epson).

So out came the Fuji X100 and its many derivatives, taking over a large part of the market with their high quality images SOOC (straight out of camera), all with its expertise in film color and grain rendition. Finally they also took a big bite out of the Hasselblad class of large sensor studio cameras, with their GFX mid size sensors, in small form factor.
One of their latest models is (still) on back order as essentially *all* the museums are now using them for their high quality color and lens qualities, at a more affordable price than the standards too.

Where they (and many others except apparently Zeiss) missed the boat is in not incorporating AI post processing in their cams like Apple and Google did in their cams. You can be sure they're all feverish working on it. Which is why I buy more lenses and only new bodies if absolutely "required".

Disclosure: long time photographer, Nikon 900, Canon 5D, Nikon D700, Fuji F11, Fuji X100s, X-t1, X-H1 .. and some older Zeiss, Nikon, Canon, Yashica film cams.

 

[elasalle]

Per Shipping Google docs, Ship #7 (US, China combined) left Pier 80 yesterday. This is same ship count to EU (tracked) as last quarter. ~ cheers!!

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Tickling $500 pre market. The question remains, will those that matter have the power to keep it below? Perhaps today but long term...no way in my opinion.

Dan

Clearly there's one job for the MM's today, keep $500 calls out if the money. I think a LOT of resources and effort will be put behind this today/tomorrow and we'll close out the week just around $500.

Then of course that all unwinds Monday. We're set up for a fairly classic TSLA move where we scratch our heads Thurs/Fri and pop Monday. There are likely a LOT of calls out there for tomorrow.

Looks to me like macros might cooperate enough for this to happen. We shall see. Could also close at $545 today

 

[CLK350]

Elon is often criticized for not having a better filter for the comments he makes from time to time, but I would bet his feelings towards Buffett are even more sour than he has already stated. It wasn’t much of a stretch for many on TMC to connect the dots between Buffett’s coal investments that are transported in Buffett’s coal train investments to Buffett’s Nevada Energy investments at the time NVEnergy helped to derail Nevada residential and commercial solar incentives, which ultimately resulted in perhaps the final blow to Solar City. At that time it could be argued that Solar City was very well positioned to change the landscape of power generation and distribution in Nevada. The potential savings and the benefit for the environment was so great that some commercial properties such as MGM Grand bought their way out of their existing energy contracts to go solar anyways after this all went down.
Buffett can be praised as an investor, but it is difficult to not be reminded of the effects of those investment efforts on our environment every time another mile-long coal train unnecessarily races down the track towards the desert Southwest on a day so bright and sunny that the desert Southwest could have powered all of its electricity needs locally with solar and it could have been an exporter of solar power as well. Given Elon’s focus on a more sustainable future for the planet, I commend him for being as soft spoken as he has in the past towards Buffett, and I am hopeful Buffett’s position is completely hands off beyond helping to pour bucket loads of additional investment money into TSLA to help make up for time lost in our transition towards a more sustainable future

Buffet embodies all that is wrong with our current "capitalist" model. The pursuit of money/ profits as an end in itself. The other great embodiement is Jack Welch of GE fame who was famously lauded all the time for "profits" - except the profits were made by buying perfectly good companies, then disemboweling them and getting all the cash out of them as quickly as possible. The resulting carnage took a while to show up ... but here we are. No longer the top company for managerial trainees or engineers either, but tops for "financial" engineers.

To get back to Buffet, somebody will probably write a post mortem, but his success was also mostly 'financial" maneuvers, getting stock at low prices in pre arranged deals, etc. I bet he couldn't tell you the difference between ICE direct and carburetor injection, of even what a good steak should be like. Sorry for the personal digs - the saddest feeling I have these days when I think about it (not much anymore, but that's another OT), is the *poor* taste or lack of taste, culture and common sense most of our leaders, elected or de facto in power.

PS (added later) - the pursuit of profits is fine, but it does depends on the framework/ environment these profits are made in. Destroying companies via (naked) short selling is the easiest to see in the financial area. But does it really make sense? Profits need to include damage to the environment and sickness it creates for others, now and in the future.So huge we all are mostly inured to them

 

[Robocop]

Clearly there's one job for the MM's today, keep $500 calls out if the money. I think a LOT of resources and effort will be put behind this today/tomorrow and we'll close out the week just around $500.

Then of course that all unwinds Monday. We're set up for a fairly classic TSLA move where we scratch our heads Thurs/Fri and pop Monday. There are likely a LOT of calls out there for tomorrow.

Looks to me like macros might cooperate enough for this to happen. We shall see. Could also close at $545 today

It was $498 for a hot second this morning pre-market. They have their work cut out for them.

 

[Causalien]

I've heard multiple folks who reached a point where they can spend their time and attention freely, say similar things. Looking forward to try it out myself at some point. It's a very foreign concept when you've only ever had breaks of holiday length for your whole life, and had a somewhat ambitious and directed focus the entire rest of the time. It doesn't surprise me that it could lead to discovering things that otherwise go undiscovered.

Interesting point on the D3 auction house as well. Actually had a similar thought when the game came out, then related to automated trading, and again when the cryptocurrency boom started. But never got around to making anything of it, unfortunately. Too distracted by more mundane ambitions

But the world of technology keeps getting more and more interesting and weird for each year. So I'm certain similar opportunities will show up again. It's an absolutely fantastic time for curiosity and open-mindedness.

There are definitely some attitude change as well.

For example, I didn't expand the d3 operation because I can objectively look at the expected income when fully expanded and ignore it. Then I ask myself if it is a cause worth pursuing.

Whereas if I was still a wage slave,
the project will be too lucrative to give up.

It just somehow turns out that the projects I deemed worth it and expecting to never get any payback are usually tge ones that ended up succeeding beyond imagination and morph into monsters.