Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[avoigt]

 

[smorgasbord]

I recommend this documentary:

I think a lot of what happened when photography went from film to digital will be very similar to when automotive goes from fossil fuel to electric. The writing was on the wall for Kodak just as much as it is on the wall for GM(who made the original EV) and the rest, but all their products into the new market have been flops. Just like Kodak.

Both the convention wisdom and that documentary are wrong about why Kodak failed. The documentary does show the reality that Kodak invented the digital camera, but the truth is that Kodak really pushed their digital cameras early on, and they were actually well received (just read archives of DPReivew.com). Heck, Kodak even bought online photo sharing site Ofoto around 2000/2001.

So, if Kodak embraced the new technology, why did they fail? The real answer is that Kodak was simply substituting the new technology into the old Use Cases. They strayed from their original motto "You push the button, we do the rest" of simplicity and focused on trying to make digital cameras that produced output that rivaled film. They should have known that was a bad strategy, as they themselves were part of the successful transition from 35mm to smaller (lower quality) formats, which became popular because the form factor was smaller. They even turned the online photo sharing site, Ofoto, into an printing organizer site.

What Kodak failed to realize was not that digital was the wave, but that digital would change what people did with images, and how they would interact with images. Ofoto could have become Instagram! They could have built connectivity into their cameras, but instead it was the phones that built cameras into their connectivity. Kodak thought people still wanted paper images to stick on their refrigerator when the real change was to online images being shared with their extended family and friends all over. New Use Cases.


I believe the same will be true for personal transportation. Tesla doesn't just make great EVs, they make vehicles that are going to drive themselves, provide income for owners, and take advantage of underground tunnels. Tesla will provide an entire energy production, storage, and consumption eco-system that's Earth-friendly. Meanwhile, GM is trying to turn Hummer into an EV pickup for the rich.

 

[ammulder]

Thinking
There was no reason for the stock to go up 10% either of the last two days. And no, there isn't an investment firm of that magnitude. Especially one that flips like AJ's has. If you believed him as a bear you don't believe him as a bull because he went from one polar extreme to the other overnight without anything other than him deciding to look at it for more than he had. That turd don't float.

Or... Morgan Stanley thinks Elon will do another secondary offering to free up some shares for index funds, and wants to suck up while there's still time...

 

[Tslynk67]

My plans are similar. And I see myself as a huge bull. :-D

When SP reaches $1000-1200 - I will be selling covered calls at double SP when those are available. Feel free to call me bearish.

At $2000 - I will have enough. And if we don't reach $2k within expiry - the better. :-D

And profit from calls will be used to boost my position, either more shares direct, or most likely selling puts at -20% SP until assigned. Then sell more calls on these.

Edit: Is it possible to sell puts with security in stock, when I have sold leap calls on these stock? I guess not, but should be..? as I wont get assigned share through put at say $1000 - AND get my shares called away at $2000 at the same time. ;-) But then. always possibility that someone will exercise options early.

It’s a strategy- you hear that it is bearish more when
the SP spikes, but not when SP is sideways or tanks.
The last 2 scenarios are what the Strategy is for.
For the 1st case if you are happy with the strike you can let it exercise or you can roll it.

Sep,Oct,Nov,Dec the CC’s worked great for me.However the final roll from Dec to Jan is now working against me. I rolled the CCs to take Dec profits and was not expecting S&P . The CC had a strike with probability ITM of like 90%, but now it is at 76%. I have options. I could roll to April and I think I can negate it. However I could sell 2 June calls and close 10 Jan CCs. Then I can close a few June calls to get time premiums and sell CC’s for the rest. So this is my strategy - I don’t care about small issues with CC’s for this reason.

the monies from the CC’s has been reinvested into Tesla calls - that should make me a super Bull and only below those doing so on margin

Well I'm not in a rush to sell core shares, but I do need to start getting cash out of my capital and if I can do that without selling I will.

I'm looking for strikes $700 - $800, I'm OK to sell a few shares in that range, premiums in the $35-$50 range within 3 months time-window preferred.

So still some ways to go with the IV to achieve that.

I neither rule-out selling all my core shares, I always said I'd cash-out at $800, in any case, would expect it to fall-back in January, to allow a buy-back, or selling or cash-covered puts to generate more filthy-lucre.

So yeah, biggest deal for me is selling strikes at prices I'm comfortable to sell shares at - this hasn't been the case recently, but was in September when you could get $32 for Dec 18th $700's, kicking myself for only selling 3.

Elon is often criticized for not having a better filter for the comments he makes from time to time, but I would bet his feelings towards Buffett are even more sour than he has already stated. It wasn’t much of a stretch for many on TMC to connect the dots between Buffett’s coal investments that are transported in Buffett’s coal train investments to Buffett’s Nevada Energy investments at the time NVEnergy helped to derail Nevada residential and commercial solar incentives, which ultimately resulted in perhaps the final blow to Solar City. At that time it could be argued that Solar City was very well positioned to change the landscape of power generation and distribution in Nevada. The potential savings and the benefit for the environment was so great that some commercial properties such as MGM Grand bought their way out of their existing energy contracts to go solar anyways after this all went down.
Buffett can be praised as an investor, but it is difficult to not be reminded of the effects of those investment efforts on our environment every time another mile-long coal train unnecessarily races down the track towards the desert Southwest on a day so bright and sunny that the desert Southwest could have powered all of its electricity needs locally with solar and it could have been an exporter of solar power as well. Given Elon’s focus on a more sustainable future for the planet, I commend him for being as soft spoken as he has in the past towards Buffett, and I am hopeful Buffett’s position is completely hands off beyond helping to pour bucket loads of additional investment money into TSLA to help make up for time lost in our transition towards a more sustainable future

The guy has no moral compass...

 

[Sudre]

How about $480? Do they still care about $480?
View attachment 609505

Cheers!

Looks like they do not care about $480 either. They are moving max pain up as fast as the market can buy shares. It almost seems like they were ready for this. I mean sure they still have some Puts to sell with strikes above $450 but at the moment.... close enough. The only thing they care about is $500 and that is a possibility..... that's why some are expecting a push down to test the new support. Strangely their are less Puts down their still. Let me bite open my tea bag and spit the mess on the chart... I'll get right back to you...LOL

The tea leaves say THEY want to see this duck back down to 460 so THEY can sell more Puts at $450 at a higher premium but THEY won't be able to.

 

[Big Time]

Rippin it up @ open!

 

[lafrisbee]

4 million shares traded and $499 in the first 3 minutes

 

[jeewee3000]

Volume in the first minute of 3,2 million shares.

 

[FS_FRA]

Off to the races! And what an opening it is.... bounced off 499.5 within the first 3 minutes

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Ripped straight to $500 and the battle begins. Left some money on the table selling Friday calls yesterday, but it's nice to just sit back today and watch these guys beat themselves over the head all day.

 

[Big Time]

Hopefully macros can hold up

 

[UncaNed]

I'm on the verge of converting about 50% of my IRA to OTM calls around Jun/Jul next year with a goal of a 200% gain. Anybody have anything to say?

You might end up with way more than only a 200% gain, but for HALF my IRA I'd only go with Jan 2023 LEAPS in case of a year-long black swan sort of event or recession. At least June/July 2021 expiration for half my IRA is way more expiration risk than I'd accept.

I hardly know what I'm talking about though, not advice, and would love to hear what others here have to say, not that I'd necessarily understand it.

EDIT- AH! @gabeincal ! I didn't realize it was you I was replying to. FYI I know of at least 2 other folks on this forum that are emulating you (except Jan and March 2021 expirations), so I hope your advice turns out to be profitable.

...though now everybody seems to be buying up various call options. Hope we don't all get burned somehow.

Full Speed Ahead in any case.

 

[vikings123]

The battle of SP 500

 

[corduroy]

Apologies if this is a noobish question, what is the general lag time for IV to adjust after a large SP swing? I'm looking at 30 day historic IV charts and it's not moving as I expected.

 

[Sancho]

Today’s feature attraction: The Battle for $500.

We haven’t had an entertaining Battle for awhile, so this should be fun.

Not investment advice, but, it seems to me that in the past if a big Battle comes quickly the longs win these pretty easily. Like in the first hour.

 

[Krugerrand]

Looks like they do not care about $480 either. They are moving max pain up as fast as the market can buy shares. It almost seems like they were ready for this. I mean sure they still have some Puts to sell with strikes above $450 but at the moment.... close enough. The only thing they care about is $500 and that is a possibility..... that's why some are expecting a push down to test the new support. Strangely their are less Puts down their still. Let me bite open my tea bag and spit the mess on the chart... I'll get right back to you...LOL

View attachment 609914

The tea leaves say THEY want to see this duck back down to 460 so THEY can sell more Puts at $450 at a higher premium but THEY won't be able to.

Your post is 15 minutes old - waiting for the next update.

 

[mejojo]

Ha-Ha! Hee-Hee! Ho-Ho!! PUUUUSHHHHHH

 

[ggies07]

Ha-Ha! Hee-Hee! Ho-Ho!! PUUUUSHHHHHH

 

[Big Time]

Macros going up it’s gonna crack 500 in minutes!!!!!(hoping)

 

[TheTalkingMule]

$500 tests:

9:31am
9:45am

Gonna be fun watching these guys burn cash trying to cap this rocketship. So far successful, if not wildly expensive.