Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Phobi]

A Thanksgiving riddle for my friends. I’m sure you are familiar with a Turducken. What do you call a short inside of a bear inside of Jim Chanos?

I thought that was the festive special served at your local neighborhood Gordon Johnson’s

 

[mickificki]

I thought about dabbling in options, but after reading about them for a while, I decided it might be more productive to just set that money on fire so at least it could have some value keeping me warm. I admire those of you who know how to play that game - it looks way too complicated for my feeble burrito centric brain.

OT: This gentleman, Emmet Peppers, turned something like $1 mil into $47 mil in a year. He then bought $3mil of options Jan 21 700 strike (I think 3750 contracts?) after S&P announcement.

Not saying to do it right now, but maybe worthwhile to play a couple bucks here and there.

I'm dabbling in it, if a monkey can do it so can you! (@StealthP3D's shaking his head right now) .

 

[Robocop]

I think this says more to how much you understand about multiple doublings than it does about how much money you have.

This old fable is used to illustrate the power of compound growth:



By the time you get to the last square on the chessboard there would be over 18 quintillion grains of rice. That is starting with only one grain. If you start with more than one, you will be unthinkably wealthy after many fewer doublings. People who are always counting "money" and trying to "get ahead" never get there.

Sure, but TSLA does not have that many doublings left, if you start from a small sum. No matter how bullish you are. I too have a smaller account, so I'm bullish on TSLA, but even at $4T market cap, I won't be able to retire on it. Womp womp.

 

[UkNorthampton]

https://twitter.com/ng_eso/status/1331630079257038849

Uk needs more storage - Megapacks and Highview compressed air storage please

"We’re forecasting tight margins on the #electricity system over the next few days owing to a number of factors, primarily varying renewable generation levels and colder temperatures over periods of the day with higher demand [1/3]"

Octopus Agile tariff much higher than usual.

https://twitter.com/energystatsuk/status/1331633024811888643

"National average pricing for
@octopus_energy
Agile Tariff on Thu 26-11-2020
Min: 7.9p (03:30)
Max: 35.0p (16:30)
Average: 14.1p
Av Excl Peak: 11.1p
Cheapest 4hrs: 8.3p
Peak Time (1600-1900): 34.2p
Find graphs & pricing for all 14 UK regions via http://energy-stats.uk"

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

OT: This gentleman, Emmet Peppers, turned something like $1 mil into $47 mil in a year. He then bought $3mil of options Jan 21 700 strike (I think 3750 contracts?) after S&P announcement.

Not saying to do it right now, but maybe worthwhile to play a couple bucks here and there.

I'm dabbling in it, if a monkey can do it so can you! (@StealthP3D's shaking his head right now) .

Why didn't he just hold? Supposedly much better.

 

[gabeincal]

I think this says more to how much you understand about multiple doublings than it does about how much money you have.

This old fable is used to illustrate the power of compound growth:



By the time you get to the last square on the chessboard there would be over 18 quintillion grains of rice. That is starting with only one grain. If you start with more than one, you will be unthinkably wealthy after many fewer doublings. People who are always counting "money" and trying to "get ahead" never get there.

Thank you for the helpful comments and the fable. I kinda understand doubling and have a spreadsheet that projects I'm achieving 8 figures by 2026 with much less growth than what we've seen this year, however, the bigger the capital to compound, the better the returns are obviously.

I have a current goal of 7 figures this year I work hard towards and then start to de-risk my portfolio.

If I get assigned with these CC's (which I probably won't as I can also roll if SP >570 on 11/27), I can fully settle my margin, put $ aside for this year's taxes and put the rest in medium-term calls for this holiday season. Risky play - I know. Either way, I'm very content with my portfolio performance over the past 6 months or so, even though I wasn't nearly all-in on TSLA for a while...

 

[WattsHappening]

Sure, but TSLA does not have that many doublings left, if you start from a small sum. No matter how bullish you are. I too have a smaller account, so I'm bullish on TSLA, but even at $4T market cap, I won't be able to retire on it. Womp womp.

Just keep socking away what you can when you can. It will all continue to compound.

 

[mejojo]

I think this says more to how much you understand about multiple doublings than it does about how much money you have.

I think the point was....it makes a huge difference if you were able to put 8 grains of rice on the first rank,

 

[Pezpunk]

I think the point was....it makes a huge difference if you were able to put 8 grains of rice on the first rank,

indeed, and it's a point well taken. But if the squares in this analogy represent the passage of time, then patience is the only requirement to make up that difference.

 

[UncaNed]

Are you selling those LEAPs? /s

Not anytime soon!

 

[Nocturnal]

OT: This gentleman, Emmet Peppers, turned something like $1 mil into $47 mil in a year. He then bought $3mil of options Jan 21 700 strike (I think 3750 contracts?) after S&P announcement.

Not saying to do it right now, but maybe worthwhile to play a couple bucks here and there.

I'm dabbling in it, if a monkey can do it so can you! (@StealthP3D's shaking his head right now) .

He actually got me inspired to do something similar. I didn't buy 3,750 though. Only 15. (up about 75% so far) I think Dave is a little conservative in his odds that we see a crazy spike but time will tell.

 

[brantse]

OT: This gentleman, Emmet Peppers, turned something like $1 mil into $47 mil in a year. He then bought $3mil of options Jan 21 700 strike (I think 3750 contracts?) after S&P announcement.

Not saying to do it right now, but maybe worthwhile to play a couple bucks here and there.

I'm dabbling in it, if a monkey can do it so can you! (@StealthP3D's shaking his head right now) .

I love watching Dave's videos and really love hearing him talk with Emmet. One note that I found funny in this video is that Emmet talks about one of his biggest trading mistakes, which was letting go of a bunch of out of the money calls last December for like a buck a piece. He briefly considers how much money he lost out on that trade. I know there's a few members here who might have a pretty good idea of just how much money that might be. (paging @StealthP3D and @Lycanthrope)

 

[StealthP3D]

I'm dabbling in it, if a monkey can do it so can you! (@StealthP3D's shaking his head right now) .

I've made a lot of money using options over the years.

This man did not fare as well:

I'm not saying never use options but it's not as secure of a method to build wealth as investing in high growth companies and holding them long-term. With options you had better know what you are doing or you're probably gonna lose bigtime.

 

[mickificki]

I've made a lot of money using options over the years.

This man did not fare as well:

I'm not saying never use options but it's not as secure of a method to build wealth as investing in high growth companies and holding them long-term. And you had better know what you are doing or you're probably gonna lose bigtime.

OT: I'll never forget this experience I had in Vegas. Was with the wife and kid walking down the strip and came across a homeless man who was asking for $20 or more. I scoffed at him thinking to myself what person would ask for THAT much to start off with.

He looked at me and said, "You know, this could happen to you too..."

I was speechless, he was completely right.

Appreciate all the wisdom you pour onto this site @StealthP3D , yourself and many others. It helps keep lots of folks in check.

 

[BrownOuttaSpec]

Here is Call "Open Interest" x 100 (to represent # shares, not Contracts) through Christmas:

1. Nov 27: 20,195,400
   
2. Dec 04: 6,284,200
   
3. Dec 11: 5,280,100
   
4. Dec 18: 24,616,400
   
5. Dec 24: 4,352,300
6. Dec 31: 2,892,500

We can see quickly that there is only elevated levels of shares subject to being 'Called' on two dates: this Friday Nov 27, and the 'triple-witching' 3rd Friday in December, the 18th.

Cheers!

So what you're saying is that we're going to get another buying opportunity this Friday most likely? Similar to last week? And then off to the races again?

I never saw a clear answer on this (and I am not investor savvy enough to decipher it). Do those numbers mean that it is probable that the stock price should go down on Friday and therefor be a good buying day due to the 20 millions shares due on Nov 27th? or is it probable that the price should go up because of those shares?

I'm a buy and HODL kinda guy and I know that 'time in market" is greater than "timing the market" but just want to get a little more insight on this information posted by @Artful Dodger. Thanks

Edit: Thanks to everyone here! Great insight with the aggregation of information from around the web.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

What's with the current premium on Jan 15 calls? I'm seeing around $116 for $450 strikes with SP $96 above them. You'd think even with IV only just rebounding you'd get more than a $20 premium per share 7.5 weeks out.

Premium on this call is now down to $16 (over SP plus price of contract). I don't get it, isn't IV rising? Why would these be on sale right now?

 

[Unpilot]

Why didn't he just hold? Supposedly much better.

The thing about these stories...we don't see much of the other side. You know the dude who turned 1 million into 0...or maybe negative numbers.

That happens too.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

OT: I'll never forget this experience I had in Vegas. Was with the wife and kid walking down the strip and came across a homeless man who was asking for $20 or more. I scoffed at him thinking to myself what person would ask for THAT much to start off with.

He looked at me and said, "You know, this could happen to you too..."

I was speechless, he was completely right.

Appreciate all the wisdom you pour onto this site @StealthP3D , yourself and many others. It helps keep lots of folks in check.

Agreed....and it could definitely happen to any one of us....if we were $TSLAQ followers and acted on their advice

 

[Paul_SF]

I think the point was....it makes a huge difference if you were able to put 8 grains of rice on the first rank,

or just use this, put the amount you have now, 10 years at 50% interest and you’ll have a ballpark idea what are you sitting on in 2031:

Compound Interest Calculator - The Calculator Site

humans struggle with compound interest, I know I was.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

or just use this, put the amount you have now, 10 years at 50% interest and you’ll have a ballpark idea what are you sitting on in 2031:

Compound Interest Calculator - The Calculator Site

humans struggle with compound interest, I know I was.

I got the message 'You'll have more $$ than you will know what to deal with" as the output....is that normal?