Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[mekberg]

Excellent! But here's my dilemma:
The strategy above doesn't address age of the investor. As many mature investors claim your age can and should influence your portfolio balance. Disclosure- I'm in my mid 70's. Have achieved enough to live my lifestyle until age 125 with no market crashes and flat to 5% growth. My portfolio is diversified with Tesla this year being at 50%. but 30% of all assets.

What's the point in high risk if I don't NEED the money? IMO, that is what young people should do because they have the years to make it back when they lose.

So with Tesla, I believe the future is not guaranteed as many here do. I see at least two ways Tesla will fail.
1. The economy collapses due to natural disaster or political errors causing huge ( much greater than the pandemic) loss of employment that harms sales of Tesla cars. If Tesla has a couple quarters of terrible sales due to a deep depression, then the long devotees will HODL until the company is bankrupt.
2. Elon Musk leaves the company because he has new interests, or dies. And, his replacement is like a Steve Balmer was at Microsoft when Bill Gates left. A failure! Tesla needs to do what Steve Jobs did, train a bright replacement who will be a better leader than he was. I don't see Elon doing this yet.
3. Is there another? Maybe Chinese Communist government taking control of GF3 operation and kicking Tesla out or just confiscating the profits. Europe too?

So therefore, I will take my profits off the table as Tesla grows. Keep it below 50% of my portfolio of 25 stocks with those sales. The cash gained will be in my tax exempt account or at least in my tax deferred account. Here I will invest in Gold. Gold metal and hide it physically and off the books. But physical assets to enjoy life, including travel. Love your environment and toys, not your numbers on your balance sheet.

As I said, young people here probably won't understand this mindset until they get older and wiser. But even the young, really smart people need to avoid falling in love with Tesla and the stock because you'll grow much more over the long haul if you never have a high risk go bad.

1. If the economy collapses to that degree we’ve got bigger problems.

2. The culture at Tesla almost ensures a level of success in the current trajectory. No doubt future will be impacted to some degree. The mission will live on.

3. This is a possibility, but I think IP theft is a higher risk than outright takeover. There is too much forthcoming to pull the plug in the near future.

Of course one should ensure their economic future. I argue there are more important things than absolute returns or safety. Don’t you want to change the world and facilitate a sustainable future for all of mankind?

 

[cusetownusa]

Yikes... I applaud your enthusiasm - but I hope you or anyone else doesn’t risk a large portion of their financial security on what is clearly a bubble.

The fact is that EVs are very simple.. basically a battery platform with motors. Within 1-1.5 years every car manufacturer will have EVs with similar ranges, performance and capabilities and only differentiated by marketing and aesthetics..

Tesla has first movers advantage and will have a good year due to the growth of the EV market.. but soon other manufactures will release their products and market share will be redistributed as it is now for ICE cars. Once the market realizes Tesla has nothing special.. the valuation will tumble to more justified levels. Full disclosure.. I own a Tesla and Tesla shares.. but will be following things closely to make sure I’m not holding the hot potato when the bubble bursts..

thanks for bringing me back down to earth.

 

[mekberg]

thanks for bringing me back down to earth.

Down to earth? That’s la la land.

 

[Speedr117]

Freakenomics actually had two podcast back to back discussing advertising. Many studies came out saying they don't really work but no one dares to pull out because they are afraid of any drop in sales. This "we have to grow sales every quarter" locks companies into wasting billions in advertisement because they need to show they have done everything possible to grow sales.

Quick point. I know digital advertising works. I've seen Google Paid Search Ads stop running due to a billing/invoice issue at various companies over the years, and the impact is instant and severe. What I think you're referring to is more of the "image" marketing that companies like Coke do, where they show polar bears drinking Coke to make you feel good about the product. You might be right on that type of marketing.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Excellent! But here's my dilemma:
The strategy above doesn't address age of the investor. As many mature investors claim your age can and should influence your portfolio balance. Disclosure- I'm in my mid 70's. Have achieved enough to live my lifestyle until age 125 with no market crashes and flat to 5% growth. My portfolio is diversified with Tesla this year being at 50%. but 30% of all assets.

What's the point in high risk if I don't NEED the money? IMO, that is what young people should do because they have the years to make it back when they lose.

So with Tesla, I believe the future is not guaranteed as many here do. I see at least two ways Tesla will fail.
1. The economy collapses due to natural disaster or political errors causing huge ( much greater than the pandemic) loss of employment that harms sales of Tesla cars. If Tesla has a couple quarters of terrible sales due to a deep depression, then the long devotees will HODL until the company is bankrupt.
2. Elon Musk leaves the company because he has new interests, or dies. And, his replacement is like a Steve Balmer was at Microsoft when Bill Gates left. A failure! Tesla needs to do what Steve Jobs did, train a bright replacement who will be a better leader than he was. I don't see Elon doing this yet.
3. Is there another? Maybe Chinese Communist government taking control of GF3 operation and kicking Tesla out or just confiscating the profits. Europe too?

So therefore, I will take my profits off the table as Tesla grows. Keep it below 50% of my portfolio of 25 stocks with those sales. The cash gained will be in my tax exempt account or at least in my tax deferred account. Here I will invest in Gold. Gold metal and hide it physically and off the books. But physical assets to enjoy life, including travel. Love your environment and toys, not your numbers on your balance sheet.

As I said, young people here probably won't understand this mindset until they get older and wiser. But even the young, really smart people need to avoid falling in love with Tesla and the stock because you'll grow much more over the long haul if you never have a high risk go bad.

A couple bad quarters or even a extended recession on the order of 2009 wouldn't impact Tesla nearly as much as it would the legacy carmakers still reliant on internal combustion technology. You could actually argue it would be the best thing that could happen for Tesla's new passenger vehicle marketshare as it would limit their ability to catch up with similar offerings.

And yes, Elon could die and the stock would drop by ~50%. That's a legitimate concern, but not nearly the concern it was two years ago. Tesla is up on plane now and dominating. That can be continued without him. I actually see Elon's move to Texas as the beginning of him inching away from Tesla day-to-day and focusing more on SpaceX, eventually leaving Tesla almost entirely.

Inclusion play options for people not looking to hold for 10 years are far greater than just hold or sell. I'm recommending to one such shareholder they sell off 5% of shares starting 12/18 if SP breaches $720 and selling 5% increments if SP continues to increase up to about 30% of total TSLA holdings, 60% if it goes to absolutely insane levels($1200+) Keep a remaining holding in a multiple of 100 shares and sell 2022 or 2023 covered calls at various distances from SP to collect about $18k per contract. You lose some of the future upside, but collect cash today.

There are a million and one ways to hedge this and still maintain what appears to be an irrational % of your portfolio in TSLA. I'd also like to point out to folks(AND I AM NOT AN ACCOUNTANT SO THIS IS NOT PROFESSIONAL ADVICE) that the CARES Act allows for $100k distributions from IRAs in 2020 that can be taken as income spread across the next three years. AND it can be reinvested into the IRA across those three years allowing the taxpayer to file amended returns for 2020/21/22 negating the income. If you absolutely need cash now and would prefer not to lose shares, selling covered calls and using that cash might be optimal. Again, I AM NOT AN ACCOUNTANT and am NOT 100% SURE THAT'S ACCURATE, but I think it is.

 

[Criscmt]

@FrankSG Thanks for your comment



@FrankPeelen
There is so much wrong with this. Do you believe institutions slammed $TSLA on Friday with ATM shares at a loss? Most of Friday's trading was around $610. ATM shares could've only been bought for slightly less than that (like a few %), and only for a few hours on Wednesday.

<Quote Tweet>

@Garyblack00
2/ Friday’s action was not a good indicator, with $TSLA getting slammed repeatedly, most likely from institutional sellers of the 8M ATM shares bought at a discount last week. Index shops will likely give PMs lots of flexibility to buy TSLA shares earlier than the usual 2-3 days.

 

[wtlloyd]

Down to earth? That’s la la land.

Yep. When he said this "The fact is that EVs are very simple.. basically a battery platform with motors. Within 1-1.5 years every car manufacturer will have EVs with similar ranges, performance and capabilities and only differentiated by marketing and aesthetics.."
Well. What can you say to such foolishness?

 

[PeterJA]

Yikes... I applaud your enthusiasm - but I hope you or anyone else doesn’t risk a large portion of their financial security on what is clearly a bubble.

The fact is that EVs are very simple.. basically a battery platform with motors. Within 1-1.5 years every car manufacturer will have EVs with similar ranges, performance and capabilities and only differentiated by marketing and aesthetics..

Tesla has first movers advantage and will have a good year due to the growth of the EV market.. but soon other manufactures will release their products and market share will be redistributed as it is now for ICE cars. Once the market realizes Tesla has nothing special.. the valuation will tumble to more justified levels. Full disclosure.. I own a Tesla and Tesla shares.. but will be following things closely to make sure I’m not holding the hot potato when the bubble bursts..

You forgot a few points: Tesla is unprofitable except for ZEV credits, the growth story is broken in Norway, and those whompy wheels make the cars death traps.

 

[wtlloyd]

A couple bad quarters or even a extended recession on the order of 2009 wouldn't impact Tesla nearly as much as it would the legacy carmakers still reliant on internal combustion technology. You could actually argue it would be the best thing that could happen for Tesla's new passenger vehicle marketshare as it would limit their ability to catch up with similar offerings.

And yes, Elon could die and the stock would drop by ~50%. That's a legitimate concern, but not nearly the concern it was two years ago. Tesla is up on plane now and dominating. That can be continued without him. I actually see Elon's move to Texas as the beginning of him inching away from Tesla day-to-day and focusing more on SpaceX, eventually leaving Tesla almost entirely.

Don't see that at all. I think the move is precipitated by the outright fact that other than RoadRunner, which is not Elon's personal forte, the engineering focus is now pivoting to getting CyberTruck and Semi up and running. I think Hawthorne and Fremont are established and the level of oversight/contribution needed is much reduced. The new SS fabrication will likely induce another production hell, as these are entirely new products/production lines.
Shuttling between Austin and Bolsa Chica without a third leg to CA and back will allow Elon to concentrate his time in Texas, and force California to operate more independently with less demand on Elon.
A beneficial, and obvious move, in all.

 

[Unpilot]

Yikes... I applaud your enthusiasm - but I hope you or anyone else doesn’t risk a large portion of their financial security on what is clearly a bubble.

The fact is that EVs are very simple.. basically a battery platform with motors. Within 1-1.5 years every car manufacturer will have EVs with similar ranges, performance and capabilities and only differentiated by marketing and aesthetics..

Tesla has first movers advantage and will have a good year due to the growth of the EV market.. but soon other manufactures will release their products and market share will be redistributed as it is now for ICE cars. Once the market realizes Tesla has nothing special.. the valuation will tumble to more justified levels. Full disclosure.. I own a Tesla and Tesla shares.. but will be following things closely to make sure I’m not holding the hot potato when the bubble bursts..

@Krugerrand this is a demand concern in code...you better buy another share.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Did I do this right?
View attachment 616776

LL! STP BYNG VWLS

CH33RS!

 

[Criscmt]

Time for a new poll?
I thought it's helpful to gather what the current expectation of the folks paying special attention to this catalyst is for the Share Price (SP) in the next 2 weeks. What everyone thinks SP can get to with >=80% chances.

TSLA S&P SP Prediction - Conducted Dec-12th weekend

Tagging a few folks that are quickly crossing my mind.
@All, I request you to join.
This information will likely be helpful for many (of course myself). Among other things with not getting carried away with unrealistic views and loosing money on crazy short term bets, and/or having upset week(s).

@adiggs @Artful Dodger @BlackS @Bet TSLA @FrankSG @ @generalenthu @ggr @juanmedina @lafrisbee @Lycanthrope @Papafox @Right_Said_Fred @Singuy @StarFoxisDown! @StealthP3D @TheTalkingMule @Tim S @Tyler34 @vikings123

~~~Investor Mod: This is an idea whose time already was. Please don't clutter the Investor Sector with more such polls. @MABMAB created one over a week ago.~~~

 

[Artful Dodger]

Time for a new poll?
I thought it's helpful to gather what the current expectation of the folks paying special attention to this catalyst is for the Share Price (SP) in the next 2 weeks. What everyone thinks SP can get to with >=80% chances.

TSLA S&P SP Prediction - Conducted Dec-12th weekend

Thanks. Is there any way you can summarize the results w/o linking to Google Docs? Screenie perhaps? Just looking for the distribution of estimates (ie: mean, std dev, kurtosis... )

 

[Tyler34]

Is anyone else bummed we haven't seen a new beta build in 2 weeks now? I was enjoying seeing the progress each release. Three possibilities come to mind:
1. They consider the current beta good enough for a wider release and are preparing it for the masses with the xmas update.
2. They don't consider it good enough to expand but think they need more data than they were getting with 1 week builds.
3. They finally gave the autopilot team some much deserved pto.

Fingers crossed for #1

 

[TravelFree]

Inclusion play options for people not looking to hold for 10 years are far greater than just hold or sell. I'm recommending to one such shareholder they sell off 5% of shares starting 12/18 if SP breaches $720 and selling 5% increments if SP continues to increase up to about 30% of total TSLA holdings, 60% if it goes to absolutely insane levels($1200+) Keep a remaining holding in a multiple of 100 shares and sell 2022 or 2023 covered calls at various distances from SP to collect about $18k per contract. You lose some of the future upside, but collect cash today.

Already doing that and set it up for the coming week. Good advice on the 100 share increments as that permits selling covered calls for the future when the stock is not so volatile, or begins a bearish trend.

 

[Singuy]

Quick point. I know digital advertising works. I've seen Google Paid Search Ads stop running due to a billing/invoice issue at various companies over the years, and the impact is instant and severe. What I think you're referring to is more of the "image" marketing that companies like Coke do, where they show polar bears drinking Coke to make you feel good about the product. You might be right on that type of marketing.

No the study was only for mega corps. Based on their study, places line ebay and Amazon are wasting money on google paid search ads as people were going to go to those websites anyways.

But I guess if you typed in 4 seasons and Google paid ad directed you to 4 seasons landscaping then yeah, def worth the money.

 

[bkp_duke]

Excellent! But here's my dilemma:
The strategy above doesn't address age of the investor. As many mature investors claim your age can and should influence your portfolio balance. Disclosure- I'm in my mid 70's. Have achieved enough to live my lifestyle until age 125 with no market crashes and flat to 5% growth. My portfolio is diversified with Tesla this year being at 50%. but 30% of all assets.

What's the point in high risk if I don't NEED the money? IMO, that is what young people should do because they have the years to make it back when they lose.

So with Tesla, I believe the future is not guaranteed as many here do. I see at least two ways Tesla will fail.
1. The economy collapses due to natural disaster or political errors causing huge ( much greater than the pandemic) loss of employment that harms sales of Tesla cars. If Tesla has a couple quarters of terrible sales due to a deep depression, then the long devotees will HODL until the company is bankrupt.
2. Elon Musk leaves the company because he has new interests, or dies. And, his replacement is like a Steve Balmer was at Microsoft when Bill Gates left. A failure! Tesla needs to do what Steve Jobs did, train a bright replacement who will be a better leader than he was. I don't see Elon doing this yet.
3. Is there another? Maybe Chinese Communist government taking control of GF3 operation and kicking Tesla out or just confiscating the profits. Europe too?

So therefore, I will take my profits off the table as Tesla grows. Keep it below 50% of my portfolio of 25 stocks with those sales. The cash gained will be in my tax exempt account or at least in my tax deferred account. Here I will invest in Gold. Gold metal and hide it physically and off the books. But physical assets to enjoy life, including travel. Love your environment and toys, not your numbers on your balance sheet.

As I said, young people here probably won't understand this mindset until they get older and wiser. But even the young, really smart people need to avoid falling in love with Tesla and the stock because you'll grow much more over the long haul if you never have a high risk go bad.

The above only takes into account your generation.

I've had this conversation now with both sides of our family, and both have agreed to proceed with more "multi-generational" type investing with a more aggressive approach. This only works when there is more than sufficient assets to ensure the current generations' lifestyle, even assuming a major pull-back event.

With the change in outlook, we are now looking towards investing in more TSLA and ARK funds to target growth for the financial security of our children and grandchildren (without telling them this info, so that they don't become spoilt/entitled brats - they still have to make their own way).

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Already doing that and set it up for the coming week. Good advice on the 100 share increments as that permits selling covered calls for the future when the stock is not so volatile, or begins a bearish trend.

You want to sell covered calls when the SP is volatile, to capture the much higher IV and premiums far greater than low IV periods. Perhaps Dec 24th?

 

[Criscmt]

Thanks. Is there any way you can summarize the results w/o linking to Google Docs? Screenie perhaps? Just looking for the distribution of estimates (ie: mean, std dev, kurtosis... )

Sure, I will periodically share screenie screenshots of the numbers at that time.

 

[adiggs]

Time for a new poll?
I thought it's helpful to gather what the current expectation of the folks paying special attention to this catalyst is for the Share Price (SP) in the next 2 weeks. What everyone thinks SP can get to with >=80% chances.

TSLA S&P SP Prediction - Conducted Dec-12th weekend
...,

I contributed. I'm a big believer in crowdsourcing this sort of info - I work with somebody who has made his professional career out of this general idea. Being in the same team, I've been seeing reports from his work regularly over the years, and he frequently gets insights from crowdsourced data before the experts using their models, business rules, thumb to the wind, and wishes.


The 80% constraint is a tough one for me. I decided on $750 at the 80% level for this coming week, and $800 as the peak for the week after.

I was planning to go $800 next week at 70%, and $800 at 60% the week after.

Either way, I see the peaks as near the end of next week, and near the beginning of the week after, with a big dependency on the degree to which the forced buying is front loaded or back loaded in the Wed-Fri, and then Mon-Wed windows.


And if I'm really serious about those windows, then my $900 12/24 calls need to go